Opponents and Others 2023-24

[BearLover]

Next week

Cornell needs to take care and sweep but we get barely anything for that in the PWR

Umass-prov.  1 game series one will lose

STC vs WMU.  root for WMU sweep
CC vs Omaha  again need one to sweep and still not clear that does enough. Omaha sweeping Ndak last week not good for Cornell.

Still that would move us to 15th for sure.

I do not see a path for Cornell to get an at-large bid. I think it might be impossible to get into the top 14 at this point.

that may be true.   Easy enough to get to 15, but after that?

gotta have one of the NCHC teams drop basically.

Looks impossible to catch any of them. Ergo, impossible to get into the top 14.

[Iceberg]

One must wonder how things would've shaken out if at least a few ECAC teams other than Cornell and Q had even decent OOC records

[adamw]

It's not impossible, or else Cornell wouldn't show up here with >0% odds

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/probabilityMatrix.php

whatever you think of the methodology for picking winners for each game - it proves it's possible to happen.

[BearLover]

It's not impossible, or else Cornell wouldn't show up here with >0% odds

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/probabilityMatrix.php

whatever you think of the methodology for picking winners for each game - it proves it's possible to happen.

Yup—thanks. It probably involves UMD and Cornell both losing in their conference finals, at a minimum. I'm not sure how else Cornell gains enough RPI to overtake that many teams.

[upprdeck]

The question is how high does 3 wins take us with the finals loss to Quin?

rough guessing with the PWR tool

Omaha-cc play if one sweeps the loser ends up around .5495
WMU sweeps. SC cloud goes into the .5370 range
Prov wins Umass falls to .5466


if we sweep we only move up to .5475.

Maybe 3 more win gets up a touch higher. but that last loss may knock us back down to far?

[CU2007]

Interesting the chn model gives us a 2% chance of an at-large. I wonder what it is if we sweep Harvard, win the semi and lose the final to qpac. That is, how much of it is in our hands vs totally out of our control.

[upprdeck]

Win the next 2 and then we have our answer on what needs to happen.

If you want to get into the NCAAs and do well you have to beat teams all better than the next few we have to play anyway.

[ugarte]

Obamna-cc play if one sweeps the loser ends up around .5495

FIFY

[BlueSky]

As much as this weekend scares me, and it really shouldn't....we need to survive and advance.  What I like is we are young and desperate, playing for survival. The Q, when they get to LP, are in. Playing for a SEED and not a SPOT in the tourney are very different things and I like our chances! Don't play down to inferior teams and take care of business. Hopefully the health issues are behind us.

[CU2007]

Our chance of at-large is up to 4% after last night's games according to the probability matrix

[dbilmes]

Our chance of at-large is up to 4% after last night's games according to the probability matrix

Hope spring eternal!

[upprdeck]

Minn D winning one probably helps

mass - prov not sure if the Mass win helps us or Prov win helps us.

Omaha needs to lose to maybe catch them

St cloud losing helps more than WMU losing, I think

Leagues having the 1 game playoffs hurts us with no teams losing twice.

I would think we want to play Colgate next rd for PWR?

[upprdeck]

I would have to think that Quin/BU/Mass getting as far as they can is much needed to try and get some more quality bonus.

Still hard to see how to get to 14th and lose the final game.

[Chris '03]

UMass up 2-0 on PC early in HEA.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

Ohio State eliminated, so one less possibility of an autobid going to a lower ranked team.