Opponents and Others 2023-24

[BearLover]

CC has tied NoDak 2-2 through two periods despite being badly outshot. Time to !!!!PANIC!!!!

Not sure if I'll panic but if I do I'll PANIC!!.  Using six extra exclamation points is inexcusable and I'm considering the same punishment that you meted out in Grady last night.

CC up 5-2 now. That warrants eight exclamation point, at minimum. Actually, though, this is pretty bad. We are now in a pack of 8 teams fighting for 2-4 spots. We have had, and will continue to have, by far the easiest schedule of these teams. We probably cannot afford to lose more than one game between now and the ECAC finals if we want an at-large bid.

[arugula]

Cc won and we go up.  I don't get it.

[Beeeej]

Cc won and we go up.  I don't get it.

Probably because St. Cloud goes down a smidge  having gone 0-1-1 with NoDak, whom CC just beat. It's bizarre but entertaining.

[BearLover]

Cc won and we go up.  I don't get it.

Don't pay too much attention to our exact rank. Instead, look at how many teams are bunched around us in RPI (which basically determines PWR). What's important here is that another team that prior to this weekend was far behind us in the PWR (CC) has now jumped ahead of us. Going into this weekend, it looked like there were 6 teams fighting for ~2-4 at-large bids: UMass, Prov, Western Mich, Michigan, SCSU, and us. Now, you can add UNH and CC, both of whom swept top 5 opponents. We are less likely to make the NCAA tournament than we were when the weekend started.

[arugula]

Went to bed last night, all games were done, we were 14th. Wake up and we are 15th.  Logical.

[upprdeck]

BC over Umass today would get us back to 14..

[upprdeck]

You can see a path to Cornell not losing a game from Dec 2 on, winning out, winning 3 ECAC games and losing to Quin and not getting in with PWR being so close.

A 6 loss season mignt not be enough.

[George64]

Do any of these metrics factor in how a team is doing recently, versus how they played in November 2023?

[Trotsky]

Went to bed last night, all games were done, we were 14th. Wake up and we are 15th.  Logical.

I guess it might have been late games complete but not yet factored?

[RichH]

Do any of these metrics factor in how a team is doing recently, versus how they played in November 2023?

It used to be part of the criteria. "Record in last 10" or something similar back when the smoke-filled room still held a scrap of power. I remember being against that then.

[adamw]

Went to bed last night, all games were done, we were 14th. Wake up and we are 15th.  Logical.

if all games were truly done - this would not be the case. There was a game in Alaska that ended about 2 a.m. ET -- so, did you account for that?

[adamw]

Do any of these metrics factor in how a team is doing recently, versus how they played in November 2023?

This lays out the history of changes over time
https://www.collegehockeynews.com/info/?d=pwcrpi

Although I'm just now realizing that even though it specifically references the former "Last 16" (or Last 20) criterion - it doesn't say exactly when it was removed. Off the top of my head, I want to say around 2002 or 2003. Probably not later than that. You've given me another thing to do today - to look it up and add it to that document.

I'm actually trying add a "recency bias" to the KRACH (which is what is used by the Probability Matrix) -- however, given that I'm not anywhere close to a math PhD - what I have is pretty arbitrary and I'm not comfortable adding it. I mean, no matter what it will be arbitrary, but it would be nice to have some basis in mathematical principles.

[arugula]

Didn't think Alaska-LIU was close enough but I guess it could be at the second level.

[arugula]

And Colgate lost to LIU last month.

[arugula]

BC leads Massachusetts 1-0 early.