Opponents and Others 2023-24

[Dafatone]

Can somebody please plot a graph with # of draft picks on the X axis and that team's PWR on the Y axis, to test the correlation?

Current RPI vs Picks: https://imgur.com/4UKHy5q

Also, quick question: from where did you derive the number of picks on each team? I know BU and BC each have 14, but the graph stops at 13. The CHN rosters are missing some drafted players, if that's where you got the data.

I pulled it from CHN quickly.  So any errors are likely mine first and CHN's second to the extent any of their data is incomplete.

I think one issue driving the data is that about half the teams are at 0. When I limit the graph to looking only at teams with 2-10 picks, the relationship is less pronounced.

Here's that: https://imgur.com/7MSd1rC

If you adjust the y axis to emphasize the slope of the line, you get this: https://imgur.com/xujvKP0

For anyone curious as to ECAC specifically: https://imgur.com/t0RznBN

I'm a lawyer, not a stats guy by any means. So do with what you will with this.

That's all very useful stuff. I'd say there are three types of teams: good teams loaded with picks, good teams not loaded with picks, and bad teams not loaded with picks.

And then Harvard.

[marty]

Can somebody please plot a graph with # of draft picks on the X axis and that team's PWR on the Y axis, to test the correlation?

Current RPI vs Picks: https://imgur.com/4UKHy5q

Also, quick question: from where did you derive the number of picks on each team? I know BU and BC each have 14, but the graph stops at 13. The CHN rosters are missing some drafted players, if that's where you got the data.

I pulled it from CHN quickly.  So any errors are likely mine first and CHN's second to the extent any of their data is incomplete.

I think one issue driving the data is that about half the teams are at 0. When I limit the graph to looking only at teams with 2-10 picks, the relationship is less pronounced.

Here's that: https://imgur.com/7MSd1rC

If you adjust the y axis to emphasize the slope of the line, you get this: https://imgur.com/xujvKP0

For anyone curious as to ECAC specifically: https://imgur.com/t0RznBN

I'm a lawyer, not a stats guy by any means. So do with what you will with this.

That's all very useful stuff. I'd say there are three types of teams: good teams loaded with picks, good teams not loaded with picks, and bad teams not loaded with picks.

And then Harvard.

You can't count!
You can't count!

[chimpfood]

Our boy jack Malone helps us out adding to BCs lead over UNH which is now at 3-0

[Trotsky]

Wow, that was just unconscienably lazy by RPI.

[adamw]

Can somebody please plot a graph with # of draft picks on the X axis and that team's PWR on the Y axis, to test the correlation?

Current RPI vs Picks: https://imgur.com/4UKHy5q

Also, quick question: from where did you derive the number of picks on each team? I know BU and BC each have 14, but the graph stops at 13. The CHN rosters are missing some drafted players, if that's where you got the data.

for the love of all that's holy, please tell me who they are

[adamw]

Can somebody please plot a graph with # of draft picks on the X axis and that team's PWR on the Y axis, to test the correlation?

Current RPI vs Picks: https://imgur.com/4UKHy5q

Awesome job, thank you! One note—I think the correlation doesn't jump off the page as much as it would if the scale of the Y-axis were adjusted for the fact that RPI ranges from 42% to 62% (excluding Stonehill). Which is to say, there is an EXTREMELY positive correlation this year between draft picks and RPI. Obviously, correlation=/=causation. Better programs attract better talent, etc. etc. But maybe the people on this forum will reconsider their refusal to judge a team's quality in part by its number of drafted players.

I'm not sure anyone refuses to consider draft picks, in part, as a tool for evaluating quality of a team.  I think the general sentiment is that you overvalue it by a large margin.

Yes, I should have said: "in significant part." I feel pretty strongly about my position but not interested in rehashing this argument now. Thanks for the graphs.

I realize you may not be a fan of nuanced arguments -- but this is really a recent trend, and not nearly in your favor as you think it is.

Certainly top blue blood programs have always gotten more draft picks. But since college hockey has started to attract more high end players, those players also leave early. This means that over the last 10-15 years, many of those blue blood programs have struggled, despite the large number of draft picks.

This has changed basically over the last 3 years or so ... The main reason for this is because they've learned to augment their high-end talent with four-year players. ALSO - they have learned just in the last year or two that they can use the transfer portal to effectively plug in for the players who left - using smaller schools as farm systems.

Point being, this is a very recent correlation, to the extent that it's bigger now. Historically, it's not nearly as true as you think. The 1999 Maine team, for example, famously won a national title with all but zero future NHL players. Certainly there are others if we want to go through the entire history. And no Big Ten school has won a national title in 17 years.

It all may be changing, but again, that's a very recent thing. And it's unfortunate where the NCAA has headed.

[BearLover]

Can somebody please plot a graph with # of draft picks on the X axis and that team's PWR on the Y axis, to test the correlation?

Current RPI vs Picks: https://imgur.com/4UKHy5q

Also, quick question: from where did you derive the number of picks on each team? I know BU and BC each have 14, but the graph stops at 13. The CHN rosters are missing some drafted players, if that's where you got the data.

for the love of all that's holy, please tell me who they are

BU—Shane Lachance
BC—Andre Gasseau

(Other teams are missing some too but I only went through BU/BC because those were the teams I mentioned above.)

[BearLover]

Can somebody please plot a graph with # of draft picks on the X axis and that team's PWR on the Y axis, to test the correlation?

Current RPI vs Picks: https://imgur.com/4UKHy5q

Awesome job, thank you! One note—I think the correlation doesn't jump off the page as much as it would if the scale of the Y-axis were adjusted for the fact that RPI ranges from 42% to 62% (excluding Stonehill). Which is to say, there is an EXTREMELY positive correlation this year between draft picks and RPI. Obviously, correlation=/=causation. Better programs attract better talent, etc. etc. But maybe the people on this forum will reconsider their refusal to judge a team's quality in part by its number of drafted players.

I'm not sure anyone refuses to consider draft picks, in part, as a tool for evaluating quality of a team.  I think the general sentiment is that you overvalue it by a large margin.

Yes, I should have said: "in significant part." I feel pretty strongly about my position but not interested in rehashing this argument now. Thanks for the graphs.

I realize you may not be a fan of nuanced arguments -- but this is really a recent trend, and not nearly in your favor as you think it is.

Certainly top blue blood programs have always gotten more draft picks. But since college hockey has started to attract more high end players, those players also leave early. This means that over the last 10-15 years, many of those blue blood programs have struggled, despite the large number of draft picks.

This has changed basically over the last 3 years or so ... The main reason for this is because they've learned to augment their high-end talent with four-year players. ALSO - they have learned just in the last year or two that they can use the transfer portal to effectively plug in for the players who left - using smaller schools as farm systems.

Point being, this is a very recent correlation, to the extent that it's bigger now. Historically, it's not nearly as true as you think. The 1999 Maine team, for example, famously won a national title with all but zero future NHL players. Certainly there are others if we want to go through the entire history. And no Big Ten school has won a national title in 17 years.

It all may be changing, but again, that's a very recent thing. And it's unfortunate where the NCAA has headed.

Who said I'm not a fan of nuanced arguments? I enjoy all arguments, nuanced or otherwise. Anyway, I agree. The transfer portal has eliminated the one disadvantage the blue bloods had. I am hopeful things will be better once the fifth year of eligibility goes away.

[adamw]

Can somebody please plot a graph with # of draft picks on the X axis and that team's PWR on the Y axis, to test the correlation?

Current RPI vs Picks: https://imgur.com/4UKHy5q

Also, quick question: from where did you derive the number of picks on each team? I know BU and BC each have 14, but the graph stops at 13. The CHN rosters are missing some drafted players, if that's where you got the data.

for the love of all that's holy, please tell me who they are

BU—Shane Lachance
BC—Andre Gasseau

(Other teams are missing some too but I only went through BU/BC because those were the teams I mentioned above.)

Thank you - if you know of others - feel free to send. I usually try to get them all each summer when the draft happens. Unfortunately this happens when the player wasn't committed at the time of the draft - and then commits a year later or something - which was the case with both these guys, since they were drafted in 2021.

[upprdeck]

in the CCHA if St thomas loses to Augustana they could end up in first play in the league and be under .500

Minn st is the only team really over .500 by more than a game.

[billhoward]

There are some YouTube videos with yours of college hockey facilities. For example, UMass, which provides its players 24-hour access to a rink and gym exclusive to the hockey team:
https://youtu.be/RpyhCEHQwNs?si=MsvSS5QcM5AdO1dd
Contrast with the Cornell men's team, which shares its ice with the women's team, figure skating team, club team, intramurals, and recreational skaters, and which has a couple exclusive bikes and treadmills.

Like a normal university where students and student athletes share some facilities.

Although it has been decades since you could play touch football or Frisbee on Schoellkopf. Or pickup anything on Upper Alumni Fields.

[upprdeck]

There are some YouTube videos with yours of college hockey facilities. For example, UMass, which provides its players 24-hour access to a rink and gym exclusive to the hockey team:
https://youtu.be/RpyhCEHQwNs?si=MsvSS5QcM5AdO1dd
Contrast with the Cornell men's team, which shares its ice with the women's team, figure skating team, club team, intramurals, and recreational skaters, and which has a couple exclusive bikes and treadmills.

Like a normal university where students and student athletes share some facilities.

Although it has been decades since you could play touch football or Frisbee on Schoellkopf. Or pickup anything on Upper Alumni Fields.

Did they really stop letting people play on the fball field.  It doesnt seem that long that I was there during lunch and kids were playing on it?

[chimpfood]

Nah they don't kick people off of the football field unless there is a practice. It is very hard to find room in any of the indoor facilities these days though.

[upprdeck]

Maine blew a late lead and refused to stay out of the box in falling in OT.

Merrimack helps keep UNH below us
Omaha wins on IT over WMU to help a little

Minn ST is now the only team over .500 in the CCHA.

MSU the big game left tonight

[BearLover]

Maine blew a late lead and refused to stay out of the box in falling in OT.

Merrimack helps keep UNH below us
Omaha wins on IT over WMU to help a little

Minn ST is now the only team over .500 in the CCHA.

MSU the big game left tonight

UNH is so far behind at this point that if they catch us, we have other problems. We need to root for the following teams to lose:
—Michigan
—SCSU
—Providence
—Western Michigan
—UMass

And we want ASU to win out.