Opponents and Others, 2022-23

[Scersk '97]

And now I have to admit that the Saints announcers are getting me a bit misty. What else do they have in Canton? They're obviously crushed, the team's crushed, but there's always next year.

[CU2007]

I assume after this weekend's games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

[upprdeck]

NE lost
Msu lost
COnn lost
Omaha lost

Looks like if Minn St loses to North mich they would fall behind us as well and keep that A 2 Bid League

Still want BU to run the table and BC to win tonight to knock Merrimack out and keep that 1 bid league

[Dafatone]

I assume after this weekend's games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.

[Trotsky]

Beat Harvard and fuck the Homecoming Queen.  Or King.  No judgments.

[upprdeck]

HE could steal a bid
ECAC could steal a bid
Atlantic will steal a bid
CCHA will get 2
NCHA could steal a bid

I dont think we can fall below like 13/14 but that still might not be safe Best to stay at 12.. and thats still on the edge.

root for denver and st cloud
root for BU
Root for Quin if we have too

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

HE could steal a bid
ECAC could steal a bid
Atlantic will steal a bid
CCHA will get 2
NCHA could steal a bid

I dont think we can fall below like 13/14 but that still might not be safe Best to stay at 12.. and thats still on the edge.

root for denver and st cloud
root for BU
Root for Quin if we have too

If NMU wins over MTU, maybe CCHA gets 3?

[arugula]

According to chn we have a 100% chance of a bid.

[BearLover]

I assume after this weekend's games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.

MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

[Dafatone]

I assume after this weekend's games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.

MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

I don't think Merrimack would pass us in that scenario. But I'm not certain. If they would, then it's possible that UMass Lowell could beat BU, then beat Merrimack in the finals and maybe Hockey East gets three bids. But I don't think so.

Otherwise, yeah, you summed it up well.
Otherwise yeah, I think that's right.

[upprdeck]

Minn St- Nmich is a wash now.. 1 gets in either way But NMich winning helps us seeing wise if we get in.

WMich losing is bad if st cloud loses today as well because then it's a 1 game deal for a bid steal.  St cloud winning today would mean someone has to upset 2 top 10 teams. And In CCs case they would have had to beat 3 of them and if they do that, I guess the deserve it.

HE is coming down to 1 shot to steal.

ECAC Colgate has beaten all 3 teams left so they have to feel like they can do it again.

[scoop85]

I assume after this weekend's games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.

MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN's probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations

[BearLover]

I assume after this weekend's games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.

MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN's probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Not sure if trolling.

Don't look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

[scoop85]

I assume after this weekend's games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.

MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN's probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Not sure if trolling.

Don't look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

No, not trolling. I'm not a stats guy but 20,000 Monte Carlo simualtions, I presume, accounts for all types of outcomes. But it does seem anecdotally to be too high.

[BearLover]

I assume after this weekend's games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.

MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN's probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Not sure if trolling.

Don't look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

No, not trolling. I'm not a stats guy but 20,000 Monte Carlo simualtions, I presume, accounts for all types of outcomes. But it does seem anecdotally to be too high.

Sorry, didn't mean to accuse you of trolling. This has been discussed in some other threads in the last week or so. The issue is that the model relies on KRACH rankings to predict the likelihood of different outcomes. So the 20,000 simulations are based on flawed probabilities.