Recruits beyond 2020

[scoop85]

There is going to be an Ivy season next year. Sports around the country was janky but by and large they made it work. I think the Ivies did the right thing but by next year there will be very limited appetite for opting out of everything again. I don't know if that's good or bad but it's what it will be.

Depends what happens.  If we get smarter and maintain lockdown and masks and social distancing through summer then we'll be through it and we can open safely.

If we... well, if we do what you know we will do, and rush to reopen, then there could be an enormous wave and we'll be right back to lockdown and another lost season.

It all comes down to the intelligence of the public (uh oh) and the bravery of the officials who have to institute unpopular policies (uh oh).

tl; dr: we're most likely fucked.  Hopefully we see a Darwinian effect down the line.

Speaking of Darwin, here's a scene from spring break in Florida. Yeah, we may be fucked. https://twitter.com/rexchapman/status/1373265664698429442

[Trotsky]

Speaking of Darwin, here's a scene from spring break in Florida.

"Every MAGA is a moron, but not every moron is a MAGA."

[osorojo]

Darwin never rests. He's constantly thinning out the smug and the feeble-minded - but it's like whack-a-mole.

[Jim Hyla]

There is going to be an Ivy season next year. Sports around the country was janky but by and large they made it work. I think the Ivies did the right thing but by next year there will be very limited appetite for opting out of everything again. I don't know if that's good or bad but it's what it will be.

Depends what happens.  If we get smarter and maintain lockdown and masks and social distancing through summer then we'll be through it and we can open safely.

If we... well, if we do what you know we will do, and rush to reopen, then there could be an enormous wave and we'll be right back to lockdown and another lost season.

It all comes down to the intelligence of the public (uh oh) and the bravery of the officials who have to institute unpopular policies (uh oh).

tl; dr: we're most likely fucked.  Hopefully we see a Darwinian effect down the line.

Oughtn't we be somewhere close to herd immunity in the U.S. by the fall semester if the more recent vaccination plans pan out? That's not to say that stupid people can't screw that up, but...

Not really. No kids under 16 vaccinated and I think that's around 20% of population. Throw in that 50% of Republican males say they won't get it, and somewhat lower for females, those get you at least down another 10-15%. So there you have 30-35% unvaccinated and doesn't count the number of others who say no.

What we don't know is how many of unvaccinated were infected and have some immunity. I say some as it looks like imunity from the vaccines is better than prior infection.

So depending upon what % is needed for Herd effects, we probably won't be there till kids get immunized. That may start for older, 12-16, before the end of the year, but younger kids probably next year. Kids don't get as sick, but can still transmit and they are hosts that can lead to more variants.

If we keep this going, here and abroad, the concern is a variant that is vaccine resistant.

The only good thing about the varriant possibility is that the mRNA vaccines can be adjusted very quickly to cover variants, but it would mean getting everyone vaccinated again.

And get used to wearing masks. Even if we open up for spectators, you may go to a game wearing a mask.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

There is going to be an Ivy season next year. Sports around the country was janky but by and large they made it work. I think the Ivies did the right thing but by next year there will be very limited appetite for opting out of everything again. I don't know if that's good or bad but it's what it will be.

Depends what happens.  If we get smarter and maintain lockdown and masks and social distancing through summer then we'll be through it and we can open safely.

If we... well, if we do what you know we will do, and rush to reopen, then there could be an enormous wave and we'll be right back to lockdown and another lost season.

It all comes down to the intelligence of the public (uh oh) and the bravery of the officials who have to institute unpopular policies (uh oh).

tl; dr: we're most likely fucked.  Hopefully we see a Darwinian effect down the line.

Oughtn't we be somewhere close to herd immunity in the U.S. by the fall semester if the more recent vaccination plans pan out? That's not to say that stupid people can't screw that up, but...

Not really. No kids under 16 vaccinated and I think that's around 20% of population. Throw in that 50% of Republican males say they won't get it, and somewhat lower for females, those get you at least down another 10-15%. So there you have 30-35% unvaccinated and doesn't count the number of others who say no.

What we don't know is how many of unvaccinated were infected and have some immunity. I say some as it looks like imunity from the vaccines is better than prior infection.

So depending upon what % is needed for Herd effects, we probably won't be there till kids get immunized. That may start for older, 12-16, before the end of the year, but younger kids probably next year. Kids don't get as sick, but can still transmit and they are hosts that can lead to more variants.

If we keep this going, here and abroad, the concern is a variant that is vaccine resistant.

The only good thing about the variant possibility is that the mRNA vaccines can be adjusted very quickly to cover variants, but it would mean getting everyone vaccinated again.

And get used to wearing masks. Even if we open up for spectators, you may go to a game wearing a mask.

Not to mention that these higher transmissibility variants means a higher percentage vaccinated required for herd immunity.

IMO, I think we're going to be dealing with "boosters" for a while, too.

[osorojo]

I have a right to refuse a Covid vaccination because I don't want it, and along with that right comes my right to infect others wth Covid and destroy any hope of herd immunity. That goes for hockey teams too.

[Al DeFlorio]

Not to mention that these higher transmissibility variants means a higher percentage vaccinated required for herd immunity.

IMO, I think we're going to be dealing with "boosters" for a while, too.

Just read on a cruise forum that the UK is planning on doing annual shots a la the standard flu shot.

[ursusminor]

Not to mention that these higher transmissibility variants means a higher percentage vaccinated required for herd immunity.

IMO, I think we're going to be dealing with "boosters" for a while, too.

Just read on a cruise forum that the UK is planning on doing annual shots a la the standard flu shot.

Hopefully it can just be added to the annual flu shot.

[Swampy]

[list=1]

• Won't any boosters have to be matched to the original vaccine?
• More important than herd immunity, isn't the bigger issue mutations? As long as there are enough morons, won't the virus find lots of hosts in which to mutate?

Not to mention that these higher transmissibility variants means a higher percentage vaccinated required for herd immunity.

IMO, I think we're going to be dealing with "boosters" for a while, too.

Just read on a cruise forum that the UK is planning on doing annual shots a la the standard flu shot.

Hopefully it can just be added to the annual flu shot.

[abmarks]

Not to mention that these higher transmissibility variants means a higher percentage vaccinated required for herd immunity.

IMO, I think we're going to be dealing with "boosters" for a while, too.

Just read on a cruise forum that the UK is planning on doing annual shots a la the standard flu shot.

Didn't know you were a swinger

[abmarks]

Jim of course is spot on, plus the issue of variants.

Here's my question though.  Everybody in the hockey program is over 16. They will be plenty of shots available come fall... So why don't we and the league just mandate vaccination for participation by the players as well as the coaching staff.

Even if we're not at herd immunity it seems to me that would be sufficient to let the kids play.  Jim, any reason that might not work?

[upprdeck]

its gonna be required to get a shot to go to school if the school gets their way.. shots are gonna be available by May the way things look now in NY.. I think the opt out rate by college kids will be way lower than for an avg person.

[George64]

Here's my question though.  Everybody in the hockey program is over 16. They will be plenty of shots available come fall... So why don't we and the league just mandate vaccination for participation by the players as well as the coaching staff.

According to the NYS COVID website those now eligible include "Not-for-profit workers who provide public-facing services to New Yorkers in need." I live in Rochester and need Big Red hockey!

[Jim Hyla]

I don't see any reason that immunized hockey teams, including everyone associated withe the team, facilities, etc., wouldn't be safe to play.

Unfortunately fans are a different subject. It'll be interesting to see what happens with concerts this summer, as some are getting going.

In regards to yearly COVID boosters, I think it's almost guaranteed. Much of the third world has not really been able to get started with vaccinations, and that might take well into 2022 or even longer.

The comment that the longer we let the virus be around, the greater the chance of bad variants, is spot on. If one of the current variants gets changed a little more, it's likely to be at least more resistant to the current vaccines. So boom you are starting all over. Better to give a yearly booster to cover the known bad variants. COVID will likely be with us for many more years. We'll control it, but not eliminate it.

Regarding combined boosters for flu and COVID, I doubt it, at least for next year. You may well want to get your booster from the same manufacturer. If so that basically eliminates combinations. Even if that's not true, and there are current trials of getting your first shot from one manufacturer and second from another, the storing  conditions for flu and COVID are certainly different for the mRNA. Also they'd have to do studies on people to at least show that you get good antibody levels with a combined vaccine. Then you have to have a facility to combine them. It seems for now that we should put our efforts to vaccinate the world and see about appropriate boosters. Then when things are more relaxed, we can look to solve the combination problem.

[Swampy]

I don't see any reason that immunized hockey teams, including everyone associated withe the team, facilities, etc., wouldn't be safe to play.

Unfortunately fans are a different subject. It'll be interesting to see what happens with concerts this summer, as some are getting going.

In regards to yearly COVID boosters, I think it's almost guaranteed. Much of the third world has not really been able to get started with vaccinations, and that might take well into 2022 or even longer.

The comment that the longer we let the virus be around, the greater the chance of bad variants, is spot on. If one of the current variants gets changed a little more, it's likely to be at least more resistant to the current vaccines. So boom you are starting all over. Better to give a yearly booster to cover the known bad variants. COVID will likely be with us for many more years. We'll control it, but not eliminate it.

Regarding combined boosters for flu and COVID, I doubt it, at least for next year. You may well want to get your booster from the same manufacturer. If so that basically eliminates combinations. Even if that's not true, and there are current trials of getting your first shot from one manufacturer and second from another, the storing  conditions for flu and COVID are certainly different for the mRNA. Also they'd have to do studies on people to at least show that you get good antibody levels with a combined vaccine. Then you have to have a facility to combine them. It seems for now that we should put our efforts to vaccinate the world and see about appropriate boosters. Then when things are more relaxed, we can look to solve the combination problem.

I heard today Vietnam is asking the world for help obtaining vaccines. They need 150 M and only have 1 M. Without vaccines, that'd be one hot incubator for mutations. Uncle Ho's revenge.

Frankly, I don't understand why pundits and pols aren't making this point more forcefully. As long as the virus is running free, in Vietnam or Texas, we're playing with a ticking time bomb.