2020-02-28: Cornell 5 St. Lawrence 0

Started by Trotsky, February 28, 2020, 09:33:30 AM

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osorojo

#31
February 29, 2020, 10:10:16 AM
Bottom line: Past performance is not a reliable predictor of future sports events, and 25 pages of past performance charts are no more reliable a predictor of future sports events than ten pages - and may even be less reliable. GO RED!

upprdeck

#32
February 29, 2020, 10:30:12 AM
So you are saying that all the time spent on DRF PP to figure out the horses is time wasted and guessing by lucky numbers and pretty colors and horses names would be better use of my time?

marty

#33
February 29, 2020, 11:57:37 AM
Quote from: upprdeckSo you are saying that all the time spent on DRF PP to figure out the horses is time wasted and guessing by lucky numbers and pretty colors and horses names would be better use of my time?

Anything would be a better use of your time than playing the ponies.

My dad was addicted (as a hobby not as a method to attempt remuneration) and when my brother showed a bit of interest in his late 20's my dad advised, " Don't!!"

Great father of mine.
"When we came off, [Bitz] said, 'Thank God you scored that goal,'" Moulson said. "He would've killed me if I didn't."

Tom Lento

#34
February 29, 2020, 12:13:09 PM
Quote from: iceSome video 2/28/20

Nice, thanks for sharing!

From that angle you really get an appreciation for how good Cornell is along the boards. Granted SLU is a weaker team but the Cornell forwards are consistently in better position and moving the puck out with control even under pressure.

osorojo

#35
February 29, 2020, 01:17:55 PM
Nope. I am saying that the guys who run horse tracks and make the odds and the money don't assemble mountains of data about past horse races, then study, re-arrange, and invent probabilities from the data in order to determine the odds. That's for the suckers who keep racetracks in business.

redice

#36
February 29, 2020, 01:24:42 PM
Quote from: upprdeckSo you are saying that all the time spent on DRF PP to figure out the horses is time wasted and guessing by lucky numbers and pretty colors and horses names would be better use of my time?

If that's what he's saying, he's right!!   I recall going to the track with my first wife.  After studying everything available, I did poorly.   OTOH, my wife bet according the the appearance of the horse and the horse's name.   Yes, she did much better than I.   From that point on, I used her method, saved a lot of time, had a lot more fun, and did much better!!   Go figure!!
"If a player won't go in the corners, he might as well take up checkers."

-Ned Harkness

French Rage

#38
February 29, 2020, 01:43:25 PM
People who sets the odds for horseraces aren't going for perfect predictions, though.  They're going for what will cause a distribution of bets that make the most money for the house.
03/23/02: Maine 4, Harvard 3
03/28/03: BU 6, Harvard 4
03/26/04: Maine 5, Harvard 4
03/26/05: UNH 3, Harvard 2
03/25/06: Maine 6, Harvard 1

upprdeck

#39
February 29, 2020, 02:24:54 PM
US odds are not at all on horse racing at whats best for the house.. it has zero to do with it.

Thats different than normal gambling which is trying to create a margin for profit.

Betting on horse is for smart people and the facts support it.

betting on everything else is for people who will most of the time go broke over the long run.

You can beat the Horses cause you are beating other people not the system

RichH

#40
February 29, 2020, 02:31:26 PM
Quote from: upprdeckUS odds are not at all on horse racing at whats best for the house.. it has zero to do with it.

Thats different than normal gambling which is trying to create a margin for profit.

Betting on horse is for smart people and the facts support it.

betting on everything else is for people who will most of the time go broke over the long run.

You can beat the Horses cause you are beating other people not the system

Here is an interesting article about this and the topic of the trial/error development and success of algorithms that will be sure to drive some people batty:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code

osorojo

#41
February 29, 2020, 03:39:15 PM
People who bet on their analysis of past horse races, even those people who collect, organize and analyze gigabytes of horse history, these are the people who keep the tracks open, pay the staff, and keep the stables clean. If college hockey were to allow and oversee scientific, data based systems of betting on games then college hockey would not only be self-supporting but turn a profit.

redice

#42
February 29, 2020, 03:39:52 PM
Quote from: upprdeckUS odds are not at all on horse racing at whats best for the house.. it has zero to do with it.

Thats different than normal gambling which is trying to create a margin for profit.

Betting on horse is for smart people and the facts support it.

betting on everything else is for people who will most of the time go broke over the long run.

You can beat the Horses cause you are beating other people not the system

And those "facts" are?
"If a player won't go in the corners, he might as well take up checkers."

-Ned Harkness

Trotsky

#43
February 29, 2020, 04:40:51 PM
Quote from: upprdeckYou can beat the Horses cause you are beating other people not the system
This should be true of any market with a large number of suckers participants and a low cost of entry.  The stock market is another example.

Personally I'd never go near gambling because the idea of risking my security (something of paramount value) for more money than I already have (something of little value) would be monumentally stupid.    But others having different weighting coefficients and/or different ways of getting their rocks off.

upprdeck

#44
February 29, 2020, 04:41:57 PM
there is no guaranteed profit in the stock market. there is on the Horses.
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