Wrestling [2017-18]

[marty]

For a quick primer for the non-wrestling fans, to be considered for a wildcard, you need to meet at least 2 of the following criteria:
- .700 Win %
- Top 33 RPI
- Top 33 CR
- .700 winning percentage against all competition
- One win against a wrestler receiving automatic qualification via an earned position (preallocated)
- Qualifying event placement one below automatic qualification

Like you, I have no idea what the difference between the first and fourth criteria is.

Maybe if you beat up the same few guys in dual meets but lost to 40% of the people you wrestled.  You have won 70% of your matches but lost to 4 out of 10 people that you faced. ??

[ugarte]

For a quick primer for the non-wrestling fans, to be considered for a wildcard, you need to meet at least 2 of the following criteria:
- .700 Win %
- Top 33 RPI
- Top 33 CR
- .700 winning percentage against all competition
- One win against a wrestler receiving automatic qualification via an earned position (preallocated)
- Qualifying event placement one below automatic qualification

Like you, I have no idea what the difference between the first and fourth criteria is.

Maybe if you beat up the same few guys in dual meets but lost to 40% of the people you wrestled.  You have won 70% of your matches but lost to 4 out of 10 people that you faced. ??

there are a lot of theories

[ugarte]

The brackets posted. Cornell has 4 seeded wrestlers:

141: Yianni Diakomihalis (3)
165: John Jay Chavez (16)
184: Max Dean (9)
197: Ben Darmstadt (2)

133: Chas Tucker will open against #9 Dennis Gustafson (VT)
174: Brandon Womack opens against #3 Bo Jordan (Ohio State)
285: Jeramy Sweany opens in the pigtail against Brett Dempsey (American) with the winner facing #7 Nathan Butler (Stanford)

more later maybe

[marty]

For a quick primer for the non-wrestling fans, to be considered for a wildcard, you need to meet at least 2 of the following criteria:
- .700 Win %
- Top 33 RPI
- Top 33 CR
- .700 winning percentage against all competition
- One win against a wrestler receiving automatic qualification via an earned position (preallocated)
- Qualifying event placement one below automatic qualification

Like you, I have no idea what the difference between the first and fourth criteria is.

Maybe if you beat up the same few guys in dual meets but lost to 40% of the people you wrestled.  You have won 70% of your matches but lost to 4 out of 10 people that you faced. ??

there are a lot of theories

Such as?

It seems like simple math to me.

[ugarte]

For a quick primer for the non-wrestling fans, to be considered for a wildcard, you need to meet at least 2 of the following criteria:
- .700 Win %
- Top 33 RPI
- Top 33 CR
- .700 winning percentage against all competition
- One win against a wrestler receiving automatic qualification via an earned position (preallocated)
- Qualifying event placement one below automatic qualification

Like you, I have no idea what the difference between the first and fourth criteria is.

Maybe if you beat up the same few guys in dual meets but lost to 40% of the people you wrestled.  You have won 70% of your matches but lost to 4 out of 10 people that you faced. ??

there are a lot of theories

Such as?

It seems like simple math to me.

it could mean "including matches against JuCo or Division III wrestlers at open tournaments," it could include "matches a wrestler had at a weight other than the one he is trying to qualify for" ... the problem isn't making the calculations, it's defining the data set.

[marty]

For a quick primer for the non-wrestling fans, to be considered for a wildcard, you need to meet at least 2 of the following criteria:
- .700 Win %
- Top 33 RPI
- Top 33 CR
- .700 winning percentage against all competition
- One win against a wrestler receiving automatic qualification via an earned position (preallocated)
- Qualifying event placement one below automatic qualification

Like you, I have no idea what the difference between the first and fourth criteria is.

Maybe if you beat up the same few guys in dual meets but lost to 40% of the people you wrestled.  You have won 70% of your matches but lost to 4 out of 10 people that you faced. ??

there are a lot of theories

Such as?

It seems like simple math to me.

it could mean "including matches against JuCo or Division III wrestlers at open tournaments," it could include "matches a wrestler had at a weight other than the one he is trying to qualify for" ... the problem isn't making the calculations, it's defining the data set.

Thanks.

[ugarte]

A little more bracket projection:

141: #3 Diakomihalis has guys he handled easily in the first two rounds before the bracket has him facing #6 Dean Heil (OK St.) who has had trouble with the top wrestlers this year, but is a 2x national champ.

165: #16 Chavez has a tough matchup in the first round against Andrew Atkinson (Virginia) but the real trouble comes in the second round against 2x national champion #1 Isaiah Martinez (Illinois).

184: #9 Dean will need to avenge one of his 3 losses on the year to beat Dylan Gable (N. Colo.) and then another one in the second round against #8 Drew Foster (N. Iowa) just for the privilege of facing #1 Bo Nickal, who beat his brother in last year's national championship.

197: #2 Darmstadt (assuming chalk holds for the first two rounds, which it should) has #7 Mattiace (Penn) at his draw in the QF, who he lost to early in the year but majored twice in the last month. After that, Jared Haught (VT) was #1 for a lot of the year, but if he gets upset, Darmstadt majored #6 Willie Miklus (Ok. St.), which vaulted him into the top 5 in the rankings.

[ugarte]

The NCAA tournament starts tomorrow so I figure I'll consolidate my bracket projections and add a little more commentary.

133: Chas Tucker will open against #9 Dennis Gustafson (VT). Tough start, naturally, but coming off a win over a higher seeded wrestler at EIWA I won't count him out. Of course the path only gets harder in the top bracket (#8 then #1, according to chalk.) His chance for AA probably depends on who drops into his path in the consolation bracket. I also suspect he'll have been scouted as mostly-defense and the result will be that better wrestlers will be more aggressive so they don't have a late takedown cost them the match the way it did for DeSanto.

141: #3 Diakomihalis has guys he handled easily in the first two rounds before the bracket has him facing #6 Dean Heil (OK St.) who has had trouble with the top wrestlers this year, but is a 2x national champ. I've been pleased to see how many people think that Yianni is actually the guy to beat despite his seed. He beat #1 Meredith (Wyoming) earlier in the season and lost to #2 Eierman (Missouri) when he took an unnecessary risk with a big lead late in the match. I think he's the guy to beat too.

165: #16 Chavez has a tough matchup in the first round against Andrew Atkinson (Virginia) but the real trouble comes in the second round against 2x national champion #1 Isaiah Martinez (Illinois). I also read that his "blood round" match (the winner gets AA) in the consolation bracket will be either #3 Vincenzo Joseph (Penn State) or #6 Richie Lewis (Rutgers), either of whom would be beasts. Of course even getting that far would be tough - the loser of (probably) the 8/9 matchup is in his path as well. Having those guys get upset early and become a stumbling block for someone else would be neat.

174: Brandon Womack opens against #3 Bo Jordan (Ohio State). Oof. A first round loss is really hard to recover from. It's been done but you have to win a lot of matches to get back.

184: #9 Dean will need to avenge one of his 3 losses on the year to beat Dylan Gable (N. Colo.) and then another one in the second round against #8 Drew Foster (N. Iowa) just for the privilege of facing #1 Bo Nickal, who beat his brother in last year's national championship. Really tough road.

197: #2 Darmstadt (assuming chalk holds for the first two rounds, which it should) has #7 Mattiace (Penn) at his draw in the QF, who he lost to early in the year but majored twice in the last month. After that, Jared Haught (VT) was #1 for a lot of the year, but if he gets upset, Darmstadt majored #6 Willie Miklus (Ok. St.), which vaulted him into the top 5 in the rankings.

285: Jeramy Sweany opens in the pigtail against Brett Dempsey (American) with the winner facing #7 Nathan Butler (Stanford). He'd face another top 10 guy before even getting to the blood round. Seems unlikely.

[mountainred]

The NCAA tournament starts tomorrow so I figure I'll consolidate my bracket projections and add a little more commentary.

133: Chas Tucker will open against #9 Dennis Gustafson (VT). Tough start, naturally, but coming off a win over a higher seeded wrestler at EIWA I won't count him out. Of course the path only gets harder in the top bracket (#8 then #1, according to chalk.) His chance for AA probably depends on who drops into his path in the consolation bracket. I also suspect he'll have been scouted as mostly-defense and the result will be that better wrestlers will be more aggressive so they don't have a late takedown cost them the match the way it did for DeSanto.

141: #3 Diakhomihalis has guys he handled easily in the first two rounds before the bracket has him facing #6 Dean Heil (OK St.) who has had trouble with the top wrestlers this year, but is a 2x national champ. I've been pleased to see how many people think that Yianni is actually the guy to beat despite his seed. He beat #1 Meredith (Wyoming) earlier in the season and lost to #2 Eierman (Missouri) when he took an unnecessary risk with a big lead late in the match. I think he's the guy to beat too.

165: #16 Chavez has a tough matchup in the first round against Andrew Atkinson (Virginia) but the real trouble comes in the second round against 2x national champion #1 Isaiah Martinez (Illinois). I also read that his "blood round" match (the winner gets AA) in the consolation bracket will be either #3 Vincenzo Joseph (Penn State) or #6 Richie Lewis (Rutgers), either of whom would be beasts. Of course even getting that far would be tough - the loser of (probably) the 8/9 matchup is in his path as well. Having those guys get upset early and become a stumbling block for someone else would be neat.

174: Brandon Womack opens against #3 Bo Jordan (Ohio State). Oof. A first round loss is really hard to recover from. It's been done but you have to win a lot of matches to get back.

184: #9 Dean will need to avenge one of his 3 losses on the year to beat Dylan Gable (N. Colo.) and then another one in the second round against #8 Drew Foster (N. Iowa) just for the privilege of facing #1 Bo Nickal, who beat his brother in last year's national championship. Really tough road.

197: #2 Darmstadt (assuming chalk holds for the first two rounds, which it should) has #7 Mattiace (Penn) at his draw in the QF, who he lost to early in the year but majored twice in the last month. After that, Jared Haught (VT) was #1 for a lot of the year, but if he gets upset, Darmstadt majored #6 Willie Miklus (Ok. St.), which vaulted him into the top 5 in the rankings.

285: Jeramy Sweany opens in the pigtail against Brett Dempsey (American) with the winner facing #7 Nathan Butler (Stanford). He'd face another top 10 guy before even getting to the blood round. Seems unlikely.

Agree with almost all of this.  Nationals are a meat grinder where every match is hard.  It just makes what Kyle Dake and Gabe Dean did all the more incredible.  

If Chaz can beat Austin DeSanto he can beat Gustafson.  He narrowly lost to him 3-2 out in Vegas.  He will be well-scouted, but DeSanto had personally wrestled Chaz in the regular season and, despite getting 90 second tech falls against lesser wrestlers, he needed a penalty point to win 2-1 in their first meeting.  Tucker is just tough to score on and he'll be a miserable draw for anyone.  Tough to string together a bunch of 3-2 wins however.

Technically, Dean lost to Gable last season, not this one.  Doesn't really change what you are saying, as he hasn't wrestled Gable since, but Max is better this year than last.  I want to see how he bounces back from a really one-sided loss in the EIWA Finals.

Someone is going to go full "catch-and-release" on Ben (go for TD's but don't try to ride, turtle up on bottom).  It will be interesting to see how Ben handles it.

[ugarte]

Technically, Dean lost to Gable last season, not this one.

whoops

[ugarte]

First round in the books:

133: Tucker lost to #9 Gustafson (VT). He tried to take some shots but Gustafson's D was solid. Tucker didn't escape quickly enough in the second period and the only "real" scoring was an escape for each guy and a RT point for Gustafson. The final score was 4-1 but that's only because Tucker took a desperation shot at the end and Gustafson was able to counter for a takedown.

He'll face the winner of the pigtail match between Kelly (Ohio) and Thornton (Purdue) to stay alive.

141: Diakomihalis WMD 10-1 over Zanetta (Pitt). He will face #14 Gil (Navy) in the second round. He beat Gil 9-4 at EIWA a couple of weeks ago. The winner of that faces the winner of the 6/11 match and with #6 Heil looking vulnerable we could see an upset in that match, making the road to the semis easier for Yianni.

165: Chavez WMD 14-3 over Atkinson (Virginia). Chavez was comfortably ahead before hitting a 6-point move at the buzzer to score the bonus points. He'll face #1 Isaiah Martinez (Illinois) in the next round.

174: Womack put up a good fight against #6 and 3x All-American Bo Jordan (Ohio State), and went to OT tied 2-2, but a sloppy shot that he couldn't convert turned into a takedown for Jordan with 7 seconds left in SV and lost 4-2.

He'll face Kimball Bastian (Utah Valley) to stay alive.

184: Dean WMD 11-3 over Gabel (N. Colorado). He was never in danger. Up next is #8 Drew Foster (N. Iowa). Dean and Foster split a pair of early season matches. The winner will almost certainly face #1 (and defending champ) Bo Nickal (Penn State).

197: Darmstadt W 3-0 over Smith (WV). Darmstadt was never threatened but he also was not able to score in the first two periods. In the third he chose down, quickly reversed Smith and rode him for the rest of the match for a low-scoring but easy win. He'll face #15 Williams (Bakersfield). After Williams will be either #7 Mattiace (Penn), who he beat 10-0 to win EIWA or Weiler (Lehigh) who he beat 10-6 in the conference semifinal.

285: Sweany won his pigtail match 9-4 over Dempsey (American) but was absolutely dominated by #9 Butler (Stanford) for a 15-0 tech fall in the first round.

He'll face Gilland-Daniel (UNC), who he handled pretty easily last month, to stay alive.

Cornell is in a 4-way tie for 8th after the first round. Second round starts at 7pm. You can stream all of it on Watch ESPN.

[marty]

Technically, Dean lost to Gable last season, not this one.

whoops

Is Gable related to Dan Gable?

[ugarte]

Technically, Dean lost to Gable last season, not this one.

whoops

Is Gable related to Dan Gable?

No - this kid is actually Gabel. (I mean he might be but I've never heard that and it's way less likely with the spelling thing.)

[ugarte]

Session II

Championship Bracket:

141: Yianni Diakomihalis MD 13-4. Yianni made up for his relatively lackluster win over #14 Gil at EIWA with a 13-4 MD at NCAAs. Yianni's half of the bracket is chalk, so he'll face #6 (and 2x defending champ) Heil (Ok State) to make the semis and guarantee an AA finish. #2 Eierman (Mizzou), Yianni's only loss this year, will probably face the winner. Revenge would be sweet. Every match from here will be tough, obviously.

165: Jon Jay Chavez L 10-5. Facing #1 and 2x champ Martinez was a tall order. Chavez will face Fogarty (NDSU) in the consolation bracket with an EIWA guy waiting in the wings. A bit of luck on his path to the podium (maybe) as #11 beat #6, so #11 will probably drop into the blood round slot ahead.

184: Max Dean W 6-0. In the rubber match of his season series with #8 Drew Foster (UNI), Dean cruises to a shutout win. Two TDs, a dominant ride and an escape. Up next is #1 Nickal (Penn State). Win and he's an AA. If he loses, his path to the podium has no bad surprises - all four potential opponents are ranked below him.

197: Ben Darmstadt WMD 15-4. Darmstadt with a dominant win. Up next, for the semis and a guaranteed AA finish, is Weiler (Lehigh), who upset #7. Weiler was Darmstadt's toughest match at EIWA but by the end of the match Weiler was gassed and Darmstadt was able to tilt him. I think the rematch is easier for Ben.

Consolation Bracket:

133: Chas Tucker W 10-4. Tucker faced Thornton (Purdue) and with 4 TDs, cruised to victory. Up next is #10 Mueller (Virginia). If he wins that, his path is about as good as you could expect. The winner will face an unranked wrestler and the winner of that match is also probably going to face an unranked wrestler. That would get Tucker on the podium and would be an outstanding result. A run to the podium without having to beat a top 8 guy is basically the dream scenario. Mueller lost to DeSanto, who Tucker beat in the EIWA semifinals, so there's a chance.

174: Brandon Womack L 8-5. Womack is out after losing to Bastian (Utah Valley). A disappointing end to a very strange season.

285: Jeramy Sweany WMD 12-2. A dominant win to stay alive. He will next face #8 Hall (ASU). Let's win that before drawing out the rest of what he needs to get to the podium.

Cornell is currently tied for 7th with Oklahoma State.

[scoop85]

Ugarte, looking at next season will Tucker likely be supplanted at 133 next year with Arujau's arrival?  Or does Yianni move to 149 and Arujau slot in at 141? It seems Yianni is a bit short for 149, and I'd be a little concerned that he'd struggle similar to Womack this year.