Bracketology 2016-17 Style

[andyw2100]

Lots of talk about how likely we are to be "in." But how about some talk about how likely we are to finish 8th (or higher) and be a two-seed? I'm guessing that would take two wins in Lake Placid, but would that be enough to insure it? Is it even possible with just one win?

[adamw]

Lots of talk about how likely we are to be "in." But how about some talk about how likely we are to finish 8th (or higher) and be a two-seed? I'm guessing that would take two wins in Lake Placid, but would that be enough to insure it? Is it even possible with just one win?

Play with You Are the Committee ... It will answer all your wildest dreams.

[Trotsky]

YATC: chalk except we win out puts us in PWR 8.

[Trotsky]

PlayoffStatus.com odds:

.99 Make the NCAA
.47 QF
.19 F4
.09 F
.04 National Champion

[adamw]

YATC: chalk except we win out puts us in PWR 8.

Careful what you wish for. That could mean playing 3 seed North Dakota in Fargo - or 3 seed Providence in Providence.

[jkahn]

The second paragraph suggests the CHN model's lack of updating on KRACH odds could very well be causing some havoc with their predictions.

As I allude to in our explainer article on the site, I feel like a valid argument can be made to keep KRACH as a snapshot from when the simulation starts. But I can't articulate the reason very well.

On the other hand, I do know that re-calculating KRACH on the fly after every game would be all but impossible. As it is, running 20,000 simulations takes like 4 hours. And each simulation contains a few dozen games or so. At least. If KRACH were re-calculated after each simulated game within each simulation, I think it might take a week to run.  Of course, I allow for the fact that I might be doing it wrong.

I could run fewer simulations. The whole thing seems to stabilize at around 3,000 or less. 20,000 is probably overkill. But it does allow for picking up on some outlier possibilities.

Adam, your CHN model showed a 98% chance before this weekend.  Given that we had a 35% KRACH chance of losing on Friday, then 35% of the model's average Cornell NCAA chances after a Friday loss plus 65% of Cornell's average NCAA chances after a Friday win would have to get you to that 98%.  So, that would mean, if the model was correctly programmed, that Cornell, after a Friday loss would still have a 94% average chance.  So if the 65% after Friday was right, that was quite a huge outlier.  And the 94% chance after a loss does not at all pass the smell test.  It's not the non-adjusting of KRACH that's causing the problem.

That 65% is dependent on other games.  It's not just "if we lose on Friday, we have a 65% chance no matter what.". Had other games gone differently, it could have been higher.  Or lower.

These games aren't in a vacuum.

I clearly understand that.  That's way I said that the 65% would be an "quite a huge outlier" if the 98% prior to Friday were correct.  Fortunately, we've now taken away the the pre-Friday 12% chance of getting swept by Clarkson, and 27.5% chance of losing that series, so we don't have to worry about those negative scenarios.

[Iceberg]

YATC: chalk except we win out puts us in PWR 8.

Careful what you wish for. That could mean playing 3 seed North Dakota in Fargo - or 3 seed Providence in Providence.

I actually don't think playing the Friars there is all that bad. It's not like Providence has a massive draw and there would be a lot of Cornell supporters there anyway.

[adamw]

YATC: chalk except we win out puts us in PWR 8.

Careful what you wish for. That could mean playing 3 seed North Dakota in Fargo - or 3 seed Providence in Providence.

I actually don't think playing the Friars there is all that bad. It's not like Providence has a massive draw and there would be a lot of Cornell supporters there anyway.

That was my argument against putting them there in 2015 ... I said the Committee shouldn't bother because other Eastern teams will draw just as well as them anyway.  Turns out, Providence did have a massive draw there, so I was wrong.

[Jim Hyla]

YATC: chalk except we win out puts us in PWR 8.

Careful what you wish for. That could mean playing 3 seed North Dakota in Fargo - or 3 seed Providence in Providence.

I actually don't think playing the Friars there is all that bad. It's not like Providence has a massive draw and there would be a lot of Cornell supporters there anyway.

That was my argument against putting them there in 2015 ... I said the Committee shouldn't bother because other Eastern teams will draw just as well as them anyway.  Turns out, Providence did have a massive draw there, so I was wrong.

Tell you what, if it means we win the ECAC & go away, I'll take it.

I'd like to win the NCAA, but the chances are small & winning the ECAC would be great for our team, fans & recruiting.

[wakester2468]

Pairwise predictor might keep me up the next four nights

[adamw]

Pairwise predictor might keep me up the next four nights

So long as you use the right one, you're good ... the original, invented by a Cornell alum :

http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/yatc.php

[Jim Hyla]

Code Select Expand

Bracketology Blog College Hockey:

What I Believe – Monday Edition
By Jayson Moy • Senior Writer • March 13, 2017

[b][u]Here's what I believe after this weekend's action and by playing around with the PairWise Predictor.[/u][/b]

[b][u]In:[/u][/b]

Big 10 – Minnesota
[b][u]ECAC – Harvard, Union[/u][/b]
Hockey East – Lowell, BU
NCHC – Denver, UMD, Western Michigan
WCHA – Winner of Bowling Green/Michigan Tech

[b][u]That makes nine teams in, leaving seven spots left.

There are 15 teams for those seven spots[/u][/b]

Atlantic Hockey – Canisius, Air Force, Army, Robert Morris
Big 10 – Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State
[u][b]ECAC – Cornell, Quinnipiac[/b][/u]
Hockey East – BC, Notre Dame, Providence
NCHC – North Dakota

[b][u]Teams that need to win its Championship in order to get in (seven):[/u][/b]

Atlantic Hockey – Canisius, Army, Robert Morris
Big 10 – Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State
[b][u]ECAC – Quinnipiac[/u][/b]

[b][u]Teams that can still get in at-large (eight):[/u][/b]

Atlantic Hockey – Air Force (How? All top seeds win, except that one of Penn State or Ohio State must lose on Thursday and Air Force must win on Friday)
Big 10 – Ohio State, Penn State
[b][u]ECAC – Cornell[/u][/b]
Hockey East – BC, Notre Dame, Providence
NCHC – North Dakota

Read more: http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2017/03/13/what-i-believe-monday-edition/#ixzz4bFY0OeH6



[Jim Hyla]

Last before the league championships.

Code Select Expand


[b][u]East Regional (Providence):[/u][/b]

13 Penn State vs. 4 Western Michigan
12 Providence vs. [b][u]7 Union[/u][/b]

[b][u]Northeast Regional (Manchester):[/u][/b]

14 Ohio State vs. [b][u]3 Harvard[/u][/b]
[b][u]9 Cornell[/u][/b] vs. 6 Boston University

[b][u]Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):[/u][/b]

15 Canisius vs. 2 Minnesota-Duluth
10 Notre Dame vs. 5 Minnesota

[b][u]West Regional (Fargo):[/u][/b]

16 Michigan Tech vs. 1 Denver
11 North Dakota vs. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell

[b][u]Conference breakdowns[/u][/b]

NCHC — 4
Hockey East — 4
[b][u]ECAC Hockey — 3[/u][/b]
Big Ten — 3
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey – 1

[b][u]Movement[/u][/b]

In: Michigan Tech, Ohio State
Out: Bemidji State, Wisconsin

Read more: http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2017/03/15/one-more-look-at-ncaa-tournament-predictions-heading-into-conference-tournament-finals/#ixzz4bQKE39zW



[wakester2468]

So here we are again in the undesirable position of cheering for Harvard on Friday night but different than other times, we will have to do it in person. The only saving grace is
it's Quinnipiac who ranks right up there with teams to root against. The last thing we want to see is Q to get the automatic qualifier for the ECAC making it a little merky for the Big Red should they lose to Union.

[Trotsky]

To be honest, I'd root for Harvard against several ECAC opponents.  Q and Union, certainly.