Bracketology 2016-17 Style

[Dafatone]

I have a hard time seeing 0-1 being good enough with the teams that are likely to lose already being ahead of us.

It really depends on who wins the tournaments.  It looks like we are unlikely (not impossible. Unlikely) to fall below 14th.  That could get in, or not.

[upprdeck]

if osu/psu lose it would help us a would BC. i dont know if another lose drops us below VT but i doubt it.

that would leave Wisc as the one to be worried about.

just glad we survived this weekend so we have something to talk about.

is the pwr what if tool around this year?

[upprdeck]

playing some with the college hockey pwr matrix. if i plug in us losing / nd losing and psu or osu losing we actually go up most of the time. thats good to see.

even psu/osu winning with nd losing keeps us at 14..  so we wont need crazy stuff just a couple good results. just 1 of the 3 losing might be enough

[Trotsky]

My idea is, we win and not find out.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

And QU beating SLU moves Q to 20, gives us 0.0001 QWB points, and moves us over NoDak.

[Al DeFlorio]

And QU beating SLU moves Q to 20, give us 0.0001 QWB points, and moves us over NoDak.

And somehow lifts the Irish by .0001, as well.

[abmarks]

now up to 9th. ND trails by .0001

[Dafatone]

You Are The Committee is now up!  http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/yatc.php

I threw together all the worst results I could think of and had us in 14th with the top 13 getting in.  We missed by like .0003 RPI or something.

We look likely (likely!) to be in.

[adamw]

Thanks for link to YATC - was coming here to plug it so you can all see for yourself.  Please report any glitches.

I'm going to re-run the Probability Matrix now too ... so you can start seeing that as the iterations tally up.

[adamw]

The Matrix has already found a way for Cornell to not get in .... So you'll have to play with YATC's 3 million-plus permutations to figure out what that scenario is.

http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/probabilityMatrix.php

[upprdeck]

well the question is will mich/MSU or Quin take away a bid that could drop it to 12 and there a ton of ways to not get in.

but if you play the bad things happen to cornell game you can have us lose and osu/psu/NDak all get to the finals and then the only thing that looks bad is bc/nd with bc winning.

it takes almost all 4 of the bad things to happen to knock us out.. if you have PSU/Ndak/BC winning and osu losing early we still get in.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

The Matrix has already found a way for Cornell to not get in .... So you'll have to play with YATC's 3 million-plus permutations to figure out what that scenario is.

http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/probabilityMatrix.php

Already found it.  We lose to Union...Quinny wins ECAC over Union, BC wins HE over ND, Ohio State beats Penn State for the Big 10, NoDak wins NCHC over Western.  We finish 15th with three autobids below us.

God help me, but I think I have to root for Harvard in oder to keep Quinny from getting the autobid.

Edit:  It doesn't matter who wins the ECAC.  But we need BC and tOSU to lose.

[adamw]

There's a bunch of scenarios where Cornell doesn't get in among the 3 million ... but they all have minuscule odds, which is why the Matrix has their chances at 99%

[Dafatone]

The Matrix has already found a way for Cornell to not get in .... So you'll have to play with YATC's 3 million-plus permutations to figure out what that scenario is.

http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/probabilityMatrix.php

Already found it.  We lose to Union...Quinny wins ECAC over Union, BC wins HE over ND, Ohio State beats Penn State for the Big 10, NoDak wins NCHC over Western.  We finish 15th with three autobids below us.

God help me, but I think I have to root for Harvard in oder to keep Quinny from getting the autobid.

Edit:  It doesn't matter who wins the ECAC.  But we need BC and tOSU to lose.

We also don't want Wisconsin to win the Big10.

[upprdeck]

with us back up to 9 it really is HE controlling most everything bad. if bc/nd lose we stay in as long as bid stealers dont show up all over.