Bracketology 2016-17 Style

[upprdeck]

the only number that interesting is what chance we have of getting to the ncaa if we dont win this this weekend, anything else that happens means we survive to live another day

[upprdeck]

But Greg, those odds don't take into account the bad bounces that frequently occur in hockey games, or the possibility that a giant space squid will crash down through the roof of Lynah Rink and land on Mitch Gillam. Why do you hate America?

dont tell me kid about bad puck bounces..

rit lost this weekend 2-1 to niagara while out shooting them 120-60 and holding them to 1-17 on the PP but in the two 3rd periods they lost somehow allowing 5 goals on 12 shots and 2 shorthanded breakaways

[Jim Hyla]

Adam, it's okay to look at what it would have been like "if only we won this game", but not "if the season ends today"?

After all you do say "I have found that things really haven't changed much since December". So it's kind of fun to follow the change in tournament possibilities over time. No one here, I hope, thinks it's reality.

Come on, all of this is discussion, which is the purpose of this, and all other forums. It's generally harmless, so why do you care?

I did say I was just needling you. And to each their own. I'm not exactly losing sleep over it. For a fun discussion, sure. Some people take the Bracketology articles way too seriously though, as if they have any meaning, which they don't really. So I like to remind people of that. Not you, necessarily. I just personally find the exercise pointless, and void of any educational value.

I know you're just needling me. After all, you say it to me every time you see me.:-D

I just wanted to point out a little inconsistency with it being okay to speculate what would happen if we didn't lose game x, but it's not okay to speculate on if the season ends today.

So there, I've finished needling you back.

[Beeeej]

But Greg, those odds don't take into account the bad bounces that frequently occur in hockey games, or the possibility that a giant space squid will crash down through the roof of Lynah Rink and land on Mitch Gillam. Why do you hate America?

dont tell me kid about bad puck bounces..

rit lost this weekend 2-1 to niagara while out shooting them 120-60 and holding them to 1-17 on the PP but in the two 3rd periods they lost somehow allowing 5 goals on 12 shots and 2 shorthanded breakaways

That doesn't tell me anything about bad bounces. You don't really think two short-handed breakaways leading to two goals in the third periods of two playoff games were the result of bad bounces, do you? A couple of mistakes can open the door for a supposedly inferior team to beat their opponents on any given night. That has nothing to do with either odds or bad bounces.

I'm also not a huge believer in more shots as a measure of superior scoring potential. Anytime you put the puck on net and the goalie has to save it from going in counts as a shot, no matter how weak or easy to stop. It might be a decent measure of offensive zone possession and control, but that's not the same thing.

[jkahn]

Latest odds from PlayoffStatus.com:

ECAC Frozen Four: 75%
ECAC Title Game: 38%
ECAC Champions: 18% (1 in 6)

Make the NCAA tourney: 91%
Round 2: 43%
Frozen Four: 19% (1 in 5)
Title Game: 9% (1 in 11)
NCAA Champions: 4% (1 in 25)

I'll take those odds.  After 36 seasons as a fan they don't seem daunting.  

But Greg, those odds don't take into account the bad bounces that frequently occur in hockey games, or the possibility that a giant space squid will crash down through the roof of Lynah Rink and land on Mitch Gillam. Why do you hate America?

You joke, but those odds look far more realistic than the probability matrix ones.  75% chance of making Lake Placed is considerably more reasonable than 95% or whatever the other model gave us.

This 91% for us making the tournament or the 98% shown on CHN
http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/probabilityMatrix.php
seem way high to me (and by "to me" I mean my quick analysis using KRACH probabilities).
Per Krach, there's a 27.5% chance we don't get by Clarkson this weekend.  If we lose that series 2-1, our winning percentage drops to .6719.  To try to see that effect, using CHN's pairwise calculator, I simply flipped one of our wins (I used the UNH game) to a loss, which drops are current percentage to .6724.  If that were the case, we'd be at #14 in pairwise, with a fair amount of risk.  And there's an 11.9% chance of getting swept, which is obviously worse.  I realize that this is overly simplistic and ignores all other results happening around us.
I hope these models are accurate, but more importantly, let's take care of business this weekend.

[Dafatone]

Latest odds from PlayoffStatus.com:

ECAC Frozen Four: 75%
ECAC Title Game: 38%
ECAC Champions: 18% (1 in 6)

Make the NCAA tourney: 91%
Round 2: 43%
Frozen Four: 19% (1 in 5)
Title Game: 9% (1 in 11)
NCAA Champions: 4% (1 in 25)

I'll take those odds.  After 36 seasons as a fan they don't seem daunting.  

But Greg, those odds don't take into account the bad bounces that frequently occur in hockey games, or the possibility that a giant space squid will crash down through the roof of Lynah Rink and land on Mitch Gillam. Why do you hate America?

You joke, but those odds look far more realistic than the probability matrix ones.  75% chance of making Lake Placed is considerably more reasonable than 95% or whatever the other model gave us.

This 91% for us making the tournament or the 98% shown on CHN
http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/probabilityMatrix.php
seem way high to me (and by "to me" I mean my quick analysis using KRACH probabilities).
Per Krach, there's a 27.5% chance we don't get by Clarkson this weekend.  If we lose that series 2-1, our winning percentage drops to .6719.  To try to see that effect, using CHN's pairwise calculator, I simply flipped one of our wins (I used the UNH game) to a loss, which drops are current percentage to .6724.  If that were the case, we'd be at #14 in pairwise, with a fair amount of risk.  And there's an 11.9% chance of getting swept, which is obviously worse.  I realize that this is overly simplistic and ignores all other results happening around us.
I hope these models are accurate, but more importantly, let's take care of business this weekend.

One thing to keep in mind is that there will be a bunch of losses for other teams in contention.  Many of them will play each other, sometimes in best of threes.  Dropping down to 14th, all else being equal, still gives us a pretty decent shot when you factor in how the teams around us will do.

Agreed about taking care of business.

[LGR14]

Latest odds from PlayoffStatus.com:

ECAC Frozen Four: 75%
ECAC Title Game: 38%
ECAC Champions: 18% (1 in 6)

Make the NCAA tourney: 91%
Round 2: 43%
Frozen Four: 19% (1 in 5)
Title Game: 9% (1 in 11)
NCAA Champions: 4% (1 in 25)

I'll take those odds.  After 36 seasons as a fan they don't seem daunting.  

But Greg, those odds don't take into account the bad bounces that frequently occur in hockey games, or the possibility that a giant space squid will crash down through the roof of Lynah Rink and land on Mitch Gillam. Why do you hate America?

You joke, but those odds look far more realistic than the probability matrix ones.  75% chance of making Lake Placed is considerably more reasonable than 95% or whatever the other model gave us.

This 91% for us making the tournament or the 98% shown on CHN
http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/probabilityMatrix.php
seem way high to me (and by "to me" I mean my quick analysis using KRACH probabilities).
Per Krach, there's a 27.5% chance we don't get by Clarkson this weekend.  If we lose that series 2-1, our winning percentage drops to .6719.  To try to see that effect, using CHN's pairwise calculator, I simply flipped one of our wins (I used the UNH game) to a loss, which drops are current percentage to .6724.  If that were the case, we'd be at #14 in pairwise, with a fair amount of risk.  And there's an 11.9% chance of getting swept, which is obviously worse.  I realize that this is overly simplistic and ignores all other results happening around us.
I hope these models are accurate, but more importantly, let's take care of business this weekend.

PlayoffStatus also notes that an 0-2 record this weekend would drop CU's chances to 61%

[upprdeck]

i was at the canisus games in oct where they lost 1-0 and 2-1 and all 3 goals came because of bad bounces, simple passes and pucks that hopped over sticks at the blue line turned into  breakaways 3 times in games they outshot them 85-40.. cant blame it all on puck luck for sure.  but they were snake but with that and injuries this year. he thinks he passed on the cornell lack of scoring MOJO to RIT..

[nshapiro]

i was at the canisus games in oct where they lost 1-0 and 2-1 and all 3 goals came because of bad bounces, simple passes and pucks that hopped over sticks at the blue line turned into  breakaways 3 times in games they outshot them 85-40.. cant blame it all on puck luck for sure.  but they were snake but with that and injuries this year. he thinks he passed on the cornell lack of scoring MOJO to RIT..

great typo! He said 'but' heh..heh...heh

[Jim Hyla]

Code Select Expand


This week's brackets

[b][u]East Regional (Providence):[/u][/b]

13 Wisconsin vs. 4 Western Michigan
11 Providence vs. [b][u]8 Union[/u][/b]

[b][u]Northeast Regional (Manchester):[/u][/b]

14 Notre Dame vs. [b][u]3 Harvard[/u][/b]
[b][u]10 Cornell[/u][/b] vs. 6 UMass Lowell

[b][u]Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):[/u][/b]

15 Canisius vs. 2 Minnesota Duluth
9 Penn State vs. 7 Boston University

[b][u]West Regional (Fargo):[/u][/b]

16 Bemidji State vs. 1 Denver
12 North Dakota vs. 5 Minnesota

[b][u]Conference breakdowns[/u][/b]

NCHC — 4
Hockey East — 4
[u][b]ECAC Hockey — 3[/b][/u]
Big Ten — 3
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey — 1

Movement

In: North Dakota
Out: Ohio State

Read more: http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2017/03/07/with-two-weekends-left-heres-how-the-ncaa-tournament-brackets-could-look/#ixzz4ajl6P0xB

I like this one.

[Trotsky]

I like this one.

Me too.  Bring it on.

[upprdeck]

any bracket that has us in it is good to me.

[abmarks]

Not to mention the possible quarterfinal matchup with Harvard.

[Hooking]

Do statistical probabilities factor in variables such as player conditioning, team discipline on and off the ice, desire, dedication, coaching skills, game plans and adaptability - interesting stuff like that? I hope so.

[ugarte]

Do statistical probabilities factor in variables such as player conditioning, team discipline on and off the ice, desire, dedication, coaching skills, game plans and adaptability - interesting stuff like that? I hope so.

OK everyone let me handle this one.

Hooking, shut up already.