NCAA lax - Cornell-Maryland

[billhoward]

Disappointing not to have home field for game 1 but that's not unusual for Cornell in recent years. We started last year's NCAAs at Maryland and played the QF game there as well. This year, 5 pm Saturday vs. Maryland. Cornell was not as good as its 9-0 start (taken to OT by Michigan) and not quite as bad as the 2-4 that ended the season. The Ivies have 3 teams in the tournament including Penn with a 4-seed and home field. Harvard is in, Yale is out, and along with Cornell, at season's end they all were 1 or 2 goals apart in head-to-heads. Harvard was the last team in, Hofstra the first team out. The Cornell-Maryland winner plays the Syracuse-game winner at Hofstra Saturday 5/17.

1. Duke (13-3) vs. winner of Air Force (10-5) (ECAC)/Richmond (6-10) (Atlantic Sun) Sunday, 5:15 p.m. ESPNU

8. Virginia (10-5) vs. Johns Hopkins (10-4) Sunday, 1 p.m., ESPN2
 
5. Denver (14-2) (Big East) vs. North Carolina (10-4) Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ESPNU

4. Penn (11-3) (Ivy) vs. Drexel (12-4) (CAA) Sunday, 3 p.m., ESPNU    
 
2. Syracuse (11-4) vs. winner of Bryant (14-4) (NEC)/Siena (11-5) (MAAC) Sunday, 7:30 p.m., ESPNU

7. Maryland (11-3) vs. Cornell (11-4) Saturday, 5 p.m., ESPNU  

3. Loyola (15-1) (Patriot) vs. Albany (11-5) (America East) Saturday, noon, ESPNU

6. Notre Dame (9-5) (ACC) vs. Harvard (10-6) Saturday, 2:30 p.m., ESPNU

[Johnny 5]

And, if by some intervention of the Norse gods we make it past the Turtles we get...

Sorexcuse!!

It must be a cruel joke the gods are playing upon us.

::bang::

[ugarte]

And, if by some intervention of the Norse gods we make it past the Turtles we get...

Sorexcuse!!

It must be a cruel joke the gods are playing upon us.

::bang::

Who would you rather have? Eventually we have to beat Syracuse in a game that matters.

[Johnny 5]

And, if by some intervention of the Norse gods we make it past the Turtles we get...

Sorexcuse!!

It must be a cruel joke the gods are playing upon us.

::bang::

Who would you rather have? Eventually we have to beat Syracuse in a game that matters.

Selfishly, I would simply like to see Syracuse lose to anyone, rather than have to suffer through us losing to them again.
Petty? Yes. But, my distaste for the gang from Onondaga County Club knows no limits.

::cuss::

[billhoward]

We could have been Penn with a first-round vs. Drexel. So close.

Maryland is probably not thrilled to have us show up on their doorstep for a first-round match again. This is a winnable game.

[Johnny 5]

We could have been Penn with a first-round vs. Drexel. So close.

Maryland is probably not thrilled to have us show up on their doorstep for a first-round match again. This is a winnable game.

http://i159.photobucket.com/albums/t147/Coelacanth64/LordVoldemortSULax.jpg

I can only hope.

::deadhorse::

[billhoward]

Maryland is 11-3. Its best wins are 16-8 at Syracuse in February back when Syracuse seemed to be having an off year, and 10-6 hosting Duke March 1. Worst loss April 12 at Hopkins 11-6, along with an 11-8 loss at NC and 6-5 to Notre Dame in the ACC tournament. All their losses were on the road; the closest home win as by 2 over Villanova. Leading scorer Mike Chanenchuk (Ivy rookie of the year at Princeton, then transferred) has another ankle injury, played in last week's Navy game but his only stat was one shot.

[Tcl123]

Maryland is 11-3. Its best wins are 16-8 at Syracuse in February back when Syracuse seemed to be having an off year, and 10-6 hosting Duke March 1. Worst loss April 12 at Hopkins 11-6, along with an 11-8 loss at NC and 6-5 to Notre Dame in the ACC tournament. All their losses were on the road; the closest home win as by 2 over Villanova. Leading scorer Mike Chanenchuk (Ivy rookie of the year at Princeton, then transferred) has another ankle injury, played in last week's Navy game but his only stat was one shot.

I say we win this game.

[billhoward]

An incredible streak is on the line in College Park, Md. Dating from 1990, every Ivy League team to beat Virginia in the regular season has reached the Final Four. This stat applies this year because the Big Red defeated Virginia, 12-9, on March 8 in Ithaca, N.Y.

http://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/swezey-historical-trends-to-watch-in-ncaa-first-round/28527

[Towerroad]

Maryland is 11-3. Its best wins are 16-8 at Syracuse in February back when Syracuse seemed to be having an off year, and 10-6 hosting Duke March 1. Worst loss April 12 at Hopkins 11-6, along with an 11-8 loss at NC and 6-5 to Notre Dame in the ACC tournament. All their losses were on the road; the closest home win as by 2 over Villanova. Leading scorer Mike Chanenchuk (Ivy rookie of the year at Princeton, then transferred) has another ankle injury, played in last week's Navy game but his only stat was one shot.

I say we win this game.

I second

[ugarte]

Maryland is 11-3. Its best wins are 16-8 at Syracuse in February back when Syracuse seemed to be having an off year, and 10-6 hosting Duke March 1. Worst loss April 12 at Hopkins 11-6, along with an 11-8 loss at NC and 6-5 to Notre Dame in the ACC tournament. All their losses were on the road; the closest home win as by 2 over Villanova. Leading scorer Mike Chanenchuk (Ivy rookie of the year at Princeton, then transferred) has another ankle injury, played in last week's Navy game but his only stat was one shot.

I say we win this game.

I second

I'll pass this strategy on to the coaching staff.

[billhoward]

http://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/coughlin-ncaa-tournament-probability/28512 says Maryland has a 60-40 chance of winning Saturday's game. It also projects the odds of each team winning succeeding rounds and winning the NCAAs. For what it's worth.

Maryland, Duke and Loyola each have an 11%-12% chance of winning it all. We have the 11th best chance of winning, 4.5%, with Penn and Harvard just behind Cornell. (Syracuse, the 2-seed, is the 8th most likely tournament winner.) Assuming all 3 Ivies survive round 1 (Penn is favored 55-45, Harvard is a 58-42 underdog), our chances fall less quickly than the other two.

Cornell's odds of winning this round and the ones before are:

Code Select Expand


Maryland     39.8%
Quarterfinal 21.2%
Seminfinal    9.7%
Final         4.5%

[JasonN95]

So Cornell needs to roll a critical hit on a d20. I didn't think they'd get in to the tourney, so I'll take that.

Supposedly Harvard was the last team to make the field. I guess this means the Ivy tournament worked this year as I presume the additional win and loss against strong opponents was a net gain for Harvard. Or do people think their fate wasn't altered by those two games?

[billhoward]

Using offensive and defensive efficiencies, as well as possession margins — all adjusted for SOS — the probability of each team winning the NCAA tournament was derived.

[Al DeFlorio]

http://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/coughlin-ncaa-tournament-probability/28512 says Maryland has a 60-40 chance of winning Saturday's game. It also projects the odds of each team winning succeeding rounds and winning the NCAAs. For what it's worth.

Maryland, Duke and Loyola each have an 11%-12% chance of winning it all. We have the 11th best chance of winning, 4.5%, with Penn and Harvard just behind Cornell. (Syracuse, the 2-seed, is the 8th most likely tournament winner.) Assuming all 3 Ivies survive round 1 (Penn is favored 55-45, Harvard is a 58-42 underdog), our chances fall less quickly than the other two.

Cornell's odds of winning this round and the ones before are:

Code Select Expand


Maryland     39.8%
Quarterfinal 21.2%
Seminfinal    9.7%
Final         4.5%

The Maryland probability appears to be based on their having an overwhelming edge over Syracuse in a prospective second round match-up.  Syracuse has higher percentage to advance out of round one, so it has to be in round two that Maryland moves ahead of Syracuse.  I don't buy that for a minute.  Coughlin must give heavy weighting to a team's winning face-off percentage as a key to what appears to be his holy grail:  possession.