You are the Committee

[CrazyLarry]

USCHO has John's YATC script, but once you plug in the results, you don't seem to actually get to be the Committee, as in years past, choosing a bubble, etc.  Am I missing something?

[Al DeFlorio]

Larry Weintraub '98 wrote:

USCHO has John's YATC script, but once you plug in the results, you don't seem to actually get to be the Committee, as in years past, choosing a bubble, etc.

Can't be "the Committee" unless you know the bonus point formula. ::help::

[CrazyLarry]

Sure I can.  I make them be what I want to help my favorite team, just like the committee is going to do...

::rolleyes::

[jtwcornell91]

Yeah, I wanted to do the build-the-brackets thing this year too, but I was too pressed for time (just got back from a four-day meeting where I gave three talks and staffed two 10pm-6am scientific monitoring shifts).  I figure the part that was most useful was actually the PWCs based on hypothetical conf tourney results, and that people can fill out the brackets on paper from there.



Post Edited (03-20-03 21:55)

[Keith K \'93]

So, can someone run through all of the possible outcomes now and post the possible best and worst PWR finishes?  Without RPI bonuses there only something like 2^15 = 32k possibilities left :-D  Well a couple more considering consy ties, but who's counting.  I've got a plane to catch or I'd do it myself.  Come on Whelan, you've got nothing better to do, right? :-D

[Andy Wallenstein \'86]

[Q]So, can someone run through all of the possible outcomes now and post the possible best and worst PWR finishes? Without RPI bonuses there only something like 2^15 = 32k possibilities left  Well a couple more considering consy ties, but who's counting. I've got a plane to catch or I'd do it myself. Come on Whelan, you've got nothing better to do, right?
[/Q]

Assuming no one undertakes the above, could someone please confirm that should Cornell win both of our games, and Colorado College loses one of theirs, that Cornell would be very likely to take over the number one spot?

I used John's page on USCHO to try to see this for myself, and unless I did something wrong (like putting in ridiculous numbers for the mysterious bonus) I believe that this is the case. But I'd love confirmation from someone who understands this stuff.

Thanks!
--Andy W.  '86

[rhovorka]

Andy Wallenstein '86 wrote:

Assuming no one undertakes the above, could someone please confirm that should Cornell win both of our games, and Colorado College loses one of theirs, that Cornell would be very likely to take over the number one spot?

It's pretty easy using the USCHO interface (cool, John!).  I didn't enter any CCHA or MAAC results.  Entering the least helpful path for us (A W vs. Dartmouth) and the most helpful path for CC (L in the finals to Minn.), Cornell is in first by a comfortable margin: .5946 to .5915 in RPI.  In fact, in this scenario, Minnesota passes CC in RPI (.5920), but remains "tied" for 4th (losing the comparison with BU).

It's pretty obvious entering a couple scenarios that things can still change a lot, despite there not being many games left.  I just worked a scenario where BU fell from #4 to #7 simply by changing the result of the CCHA consolation game only.



Post Edited (03-20-03 23:31)

[Tom Pasniewski 98]

Well, I don't know if I found the absolutely worst case scenario but I thinks it's close.  In the ECAC's, the worst case is a Cornell loss to Brown and Dartmouth.  Elsewhere we assume that the higher seed wins except it makes little difference if Quinnipiac or Mercyhurst wins the MAAC as long as one of them does.  Then the higher seed wins each games except for our only non-conf. opponent still playing - Ohio State.  Lets say the lose both their games.  Cornell falls to a tie for 6th with Minny and loses the tiebreaker to fall to 7th.  Not sure Cornell can finish lower than 7th but even in that scenario, Cornell would stay east as a 2 seed.

Would love to see what would happen if BU and Providence stayed where they are at 4 and 14 and Cornell and UNH switched spots to 3 and 2 respectively, what the Committee would do.  On second thought, no I wouldn't. ::uhoh::

[Tom Pasniewski 98]

Also I didn't put any bonus points into the mix because I've generally learned not to talk about what I don't know about.  Yeah right.

[Jeff Hopkins \'82]

I've been doing some YATC playing, too.  Pretty much every combination I tried has us in the top 4 though sometimes its a tie.  What's less certain is who our opponent will be

Bad scenarios:  

- We lose in the ECAC finals and Minn beats CC.
- Neither Quinnipiac or Mercyhurst win the MAAC (i.e. BU ends up #4)

Good scenarios:

- We win the ECAC and Minn beats CC (we get #1 seed)

If both we and CC lose we do not pass CC, even if Ohio State wins the CCHA.

Some other interesting results is that Providence can still make it, especially if Brown stays a TUC by winning at least 1 game, if there are some upsets out west

JH

[Jeff Hopkins \'82]

Hadn't even contemplated two CU losses. ::worry::

JH

[Melissa\'01]

well here's NHL's spin on the bracketing.

http://www.nhl.com/intheslot/read/college/college032003.html

[Melissa\'01]

ooops. forgot taht ai wanted to post the best part of the article for those not wanting to read the whole damn thing ....

"There is no subjectivity in our selection of the top 16 teams," said McCaw, who will draw up the brackets with Air Force coach Frank Serratore, Michigan State AD Ron Mason, Canisius AD Tim Dillon, Yale associate AD Wayne Dean and Denver assistant AD Ron Grahame. "It is straight by the computer. I think the coaches appreciate that. There is no gamesmanship or politicking. Everything is done strictly by an agreed-upon criteria."

aged upon? well, how about explaining these bonus pts then?

[ugarte]

"Objective" doesn't mean "public."  All of this anticipatory carping, while it might relieve some stress, is starting to get a little repetitive.

On Sunday evening at 6PM we will know if we have something to complain about.

[jkahn]

In various scenarios I've run after Friday's games, it looks like the #1 seeds will be CC, Cornell, UNH and either Minn. if they win or Maine.  I'm sure Minn. would love to get by CC and thereby send CC out of the Minn. regional and into Ann Arbor.  The only way Maine seems to finish behind BU is if Minn. wins, and then it doesn't matter.  If Brown loses tomorrow, they'll fall out of being a TUC, opening up the possibility that if we don't win we could fall behind UNH.  I did run one scenario where we could still edge them by .0001 with the right results.  Of course, we'll get the bonus points - but hopefully we'll kill Harvard and not have to even think about this stuff after that.