Next Year's Finish (Poll)

[Trotsky]

BTW, the largest recent incoming classes were:

9 2012 (Spring of entering year)
9 2010
9 2008
9 2006
9 2004
9 1998

You have to go back to 1993 and its insane 14 for a bigger class than 11, so I would say it is quite an unusually large class (if it happens).

[underskill]

but if there's some behind the scenes stuff going on, I wouldn't be shocked if we see some early departures either next year (Ferlin, Lowry, etc.)

I have wondered about this also. I think there are two ways to look at it strictly from a hockey standpoint... First, nobody has shown this season that they are able to consistently compete at a high level thus making a jump to a more competitive situation unwise. On the other hand, since their on-ice performance and skill are not seemingly improving thus staying at a place where one is not better themselves at the game hockey is unwise. It's a tough call either way and then throw in the CU education factor....

My guess is that everyone stays.

Tony Romano???

[scoop85]

but if there's some behind the scenes stuff going on, I wouldn't be shocked if we see some early departures either next year (Ferlin, Lowry, etc.)

Ferlin and Lowry certainly seem to be playing their butts off from what I'm seeing. Not that this would of itself preclude them from leaving early, but if either or both left early, I don't think it would be because they aren't buying in.

[marty]

Remember if you're saying 6 + Omar, it's really 6 + Omar and Marozzi and Brisson.

Two goalies out, two goalies in. If Cimetta defers (he seems most likely based on age), we bring in three defensemen (Sade, McCarron, Lewis) to replace three (Brisson, D'Agostino, Birch).

We bring in five (Buckles, Freschi, Weidner, Kubiak, Rauter) forwards to replace four (Esposito, Miller, Mihalek, Axell). Given that Schafer played Stoick at F when we were thin I wouldn't be surprised to see us add a forward overall.

So, it's a big class, but not outrageous.

I don't even follow this "chef of the future" speculation that well, but isn't McCarron off to W. Mich or N. Mich because he couldn't get accepted ? Do I have my M's mixed?

[pfibiger]

I don't even follow this "chef of the future" speculation that well, but isn't McCarron off to W. Mich or N. Mich because he couldn't get accepted ? Do I have my M's mixed?

You got your McCarrons mixed up. This is Patrick McCarrron, St. Michael's Buzzers defenseman, unrelated (afaik) to Mike and John. Mike McCarron is committed now to WMU

[marty]

Thanks, P.

[pfibiger]

Remember if you're saying 6 + Omar, it's really 6 + Omar and Marozzi and Brisson.

Not what I was getting at.  I was trying to say that we may bring in 11 slots to replace 7 in the current configuration.  I agree it would be more accurate to separate the goalies and say it's 9/2 for 6/1.  Given that the C. Espo and Hogan band aids will presumably immediately drop from the roster, it's 9/2 for 7/2, a pick up of 2 slots.

Right, that's what I was getting at. It's 9/2 for 7/2, and I'd be stunned if we don't see one deferral, and the whole thing ends up being a net +1. The class is huge, the resulting team is big but not outrageous. I do wonder if we'll see the team get bigger over the following classes to even things out when these incoming freshmen leave?

[Trotsky]

Remember if you're saying 6 + Omar, it's really 6 + Omar and Marozzi and Brisson.

Not what I was getting at.  I was trying to say that we may bring in 11 slots to replace 7 in the current configuration.  I agree it would be more accurate to separate the goalies and say it's 9/2 for 6/1.  Given that the C. Espo and Hogan band aids will presumably immediately drop from the roster, it's 9/2 for 7/2, a pick up of 2 slots.

Right, that's what I was getting at. It's 9/2 for 7/2, and I'd be stunned if we don't see one deferral, and the whole thing ends up being a net +1. The class is huge, the resulting team is big but not outrageous. I do wonder if we'll see the team get bigger over the following classes to even things out when these incoming freshmen leave?

We seem to follow a big class / small class cycle, which would predict a small incoming class in Fall 2014.  I've always felt those waves were best smoothed out so there isn't a huge dislocation from one season to the next.  This coming year, for example, with the combination of the potentially large class, the influx of goalies of the future, and the needed turnaround from this year's clusterfuck, could make the Class of 2017 the most "make or break" in the last decade of Cornell hockey.  That's scary.

[Tom Lento]

but if there's some behind the scenes stuff going on, I wouldn't be shocked if we see some early departures either next year (Ferlin, Lowry, etc.)

I have wondered about this also. I think there are two ways to look at it strictly from a hockey standpoint... First, nobody has shown this season that they are able to consistently compete at a high level thus making a jump to a more competitive situation unwise. On the other hand, since their on-ice performance and skill are not seemingly improving thus staying at a place where one is not better themselves at the game hockey is unwise. It's a tough call either way and then throw in the CU education factor....

My guess is that everyone stays.

Tony Romano???

Apparently he is doing quite nicely in Vienna, averaging nearly a point per game, but that's hardly the pinnacle of professional hockey success. He's young enough that he could find his way back to the NHL, but I don't know that his odds are better than they were when he was a solid second line winger in Bridgeport.

More importantly, he went major junior, which I imagine is a different sort of decision. It's also more likely to come after a freshman year than a sophomore season, no matter how disappointing. Major junior teams can carry only 2 non-Canadians/non-US players, and 20 is the age limit. This makes Willcox and Stoick the only players on the roster with meaningful eligibility (Bardreau, MacDonald, and Ryan have a year). Realistically speaking, most of the players on this team have limited options for early departure. Their alternatives for junior level development are basically gone, so assuming they still want to play hockey the only temptation to jump ship is going to come from the NHL or from other college teams. The former is rarely an issue for late round picks, and the latter involves a transfer process and losing a year of eligibility.

(edited to reflect the rule correction Weder pointed out below, and again to remove a bit that I'm not sure about after 3 minutes of Googling for CHL eligibility)

[Jim Hyla]

I'm not particularly surprised about having larger classes coming in. There have been times when we had no extras, and injuries were a problem. Coach has said he wants to correct that and he's been doing it. I don't know how many extra is too many, but I suspect 1-2 more is OK. Also he may bring in some that he feels would do better practicing for a year, and then be ready for when we have a large exodus. I guess what I'm saying is, I don't think you can speculate about leaving early based upon incoming class sizes. He definitely wants guys who end up being healthy scratches.

[Weder]

but if there's some behind the scenes stuff going on, I wouldn't be shocked if we see some early departures either next year (Ferlin, Lowry, etc.)

I have wondered about this also. I think there are two ways to look at it strictly from a hockey standpoint... First, nobody has shown this season that they are able to consistently compete at a high level thus making a jump to a more competitive situation unwise. On the other hand, since their on-ice performance and skill are not seemingly improving thus staying at a place where one is not better themselves at the game hockey is unwise. It's a tough call either way and then throw in the CU education factor....

My guess is that everyone stays.

Tony Romano???

Apparently he is doing quite nicely in Vienna, averaging nearly a point per game, but that's hardly the pinnacle of professional hockey success. He's young enough that he could find his way back to the NHL, but I don't know that his odds are better than they were when he was a solid second line winger in Bridgeport.

More importantly, he went major junior, which I imagine is a different sort of decision. It's also more likely to come after a freshman year than a sophomore season, no matter how disappointing. Major junior teams can carry only 2 non-Canadians, and 20 is the age limit. This makes Willcox the only player on the roster with meaningful eligibility (Stoick will also have at least 2 years, and Bardreau, MacDonald, and Ryan have a year, but they're not Canadian). Realistically speaking, most of the players on this team have limited options for early departure. Their alternatives for junior level development are basically gone, so assuming they still want to play hockey the only temptation to jump ship is going to come from the NHL or from other college teams. The former is rarely an issue for late round picks, and the latter involves a transfer process and losing a year of eligibility.

Pretty sure it's two non-North Americans; there are plenty of CHL teams with more than two U.S. players.

[Tom Lento]

but if there's some behind the scenes stuff going on, I wouldn't be shocked if we see some early departures either next year (Ferlin, Lowry, etc.)

I have wondered about this also. I think there are two ways to look at it strictly from a hockey standpoint... First, nobody has shown this season that they are able to consistently compete at a high level thus making a jump to a more competitive situation unwise. On the other hand, since their on-ice performance and skill are not seemingly improving thus staying at a place where one is not better themselves at the game hockey is unwise. It's a tough call either way and then throw in the CU education factor....

My guess is that everyone stays.

Tony Romano???

Apparently he is doing quite nicely in Vienna, averaging nearly a point per game, but that's hardly the pinnacle of professional hockey success. He's young enough that he could find his way back to the NHL, but I don't know that his odds are better than they were when he was a solid second line winger in Bridgeport.

More importantly, he went major junior, which I imagine is a different sort of decision. It's also more likely to come after a freshman year than a sophomore season, no matter how disappointing. Major junior teams can carry only 2 non-Canadians, and 20 is the age limit. This makes Willcox the only player on the roster with meaningful eligibility (Stoick will also have at least 2 years, and Bardreau, MacDonald, and Ryan have a year, but they're not Canadian). Realistically speaking, most of the players on this team have limited options for early departure. Their alternatives for junior level development are basically gone, so assuming they still want to play hockey the only temptation to jump ship is going to come from the NHL or from other college teams. The former is rarely an issue for late round picks, and the latter involves a transfer process and losing a year of eligibility.

Pretty sure it's two non-North Americans; there are plenty of CHL teams with more than two U.S. players.

You're right, my mistake - I clearly didn't read the requirement very carefully. I'd still be shocked to see the players on the eligibility borderline go the major junior route, but I guess it's more likely than if they were, say, Finnish.

[jtwcornell91]

BTW, the largest recent incoming classes were:

9 2012 (Spring of entering year)
9 2010
9 2008
9 2006
9 2004
9 1998

You have to go back to 1993 and its insane 14 for a bigger class than 11, so I would say it is quite an unusually large class (if it happens).

Yeah, but it's not like the class of '97 accomplished much as upperclassmen. :-D

[Trotsky]

BTW, the largest recent incoming classes were:

9 2012 (Spring of entering year)
9 2010
9 2008
9 2006
9 2004
9 1998

You have to go back to 1993 and its insane 14 for a bigger class than 11, so I would say it is quite an unusually large class (if it happens).

Yeah, but it's not like the class of '97 accomplished much as upperclassmen. :-D

'96.  It's the Spring of the entry year.

[ugarte]

I don't mean to troll -- I really don't -- but what makes people so optimistic? The team is struggling this year despite a roster of raw talent that many thought would make them a top-tier team. What's going to change next year?

The team is near the bottom but the standings are (Q notwithstanding) pretty compact and the team isn't getting blown out much. Random variance can account for some of the difference between this team being in 11th instead of, say, 4th. Another year of hockey isn't going to hurt this squad.

The last two weekends are exactly why I think our team underperformed this year and we can expect a better result next year even from the exact same level of performance due strictly to variance.