Cornell @ Clark

[Trotsky]

Yelling at something imaginary will always get you funny looks.

Just keepin' it real.

[Ben]

I hope most people aren't contesting that Iles hasn't been playing up to par, that is certainly true during this stretch. However, I am hesitant to lay the majority of the blame at his feet because I don't have the data to prove whether or not the play is purely his fault. I suspect that his 5 v 4 save percentage is lower than average, but that his ES save percentage is at the league average or better. Unfortunately, I do not have the data on my hands to prove that theory. And even then you have to look at where the shots are coming from and what types of goals are being scored before you can just take GAA and blame it on the goalie. Are these open shots from the slot? Are those shots from the slot being created by poor rebound control on shots he should easily save and direct to safe areas or are they off of difficult shots from the slot in the first place? How many shots per game is he facing? Is the PK (as it has often done this season) allowing cross ice passes through the center of its formation. Is the defense blocking shots and clearing the slot of loose pucks. Obviously rebounds should be directed away from the slot, but sometimes the only way to make a save is to put a rebound right back out there, and then it is the D's job to clear it. Are there an inordinate amount of deflection type goals, in which goalie save percentages are typically lower and the blame lies at the feet of the D for not clearing the slot and crease of bodies. Is Iles stickwork behind the net helping the defense by preventing the offenses ability to dump and chase (This is a comment I've made many times, Iles pretty much picks all the right moments to use his stick to affect the play, but his execution leaves much to be desired)? I think after taking what I have seen into account, understanding that I lack the necessary data, such as shot charts and game film, to firmly resolve my theory, I would say Iles has probably been average to slightly above average, with numbers that look poor due to a horrific penalty kill and a stupid propensity to take a lot of penalties. How much blame can be laid at Iles' feet for the PK I don't know. Maybe that is the situation where his lack of size really hurts him. But I pretty much stand by the idea that a goaltender, unless they are as good, relative to their competition, as Domonic Hasek, cannot consistently win a team games that they do not deserve to win. Iles did that a lot last year, and thats what we are basically asking him to do this year. If we had all the data I would like, I'm relatively certain we'd see a team that is a poor posession hockey team, that dumps and chases far too often despite the fact it is proven that carry ins create more shots per zone entry than dump and chase, and a team that gives up its blue line far to easily, constantly losing the neutral zone battle. Iles play is no doubt a part of the problem, but I firmly believe it starts with the 18 skaters that dress every night not driving play and doing the things that are highly correllated with winning.

I think you mean #DagsFault

[Swampy]

Did you know some people LIKE the number four?

There's even a mathematical method for it:

+4

[billhoward]

...it is proven that carry ins create more shots per zone entry than dump and chase...

Source?  I'm not disputing what you're saying (though I would be inclined to guess it varies from team to team), but if this has, in fact, been proven, then I'd be curious to read the proof.

NHL Numbers has a whole series on why a zone entry with possession is better than dump and chase. Also it should just be common sense that your offense should be more effective if you're not risking turning the puck over just to get it back deep. Obviously there's still situations when a dump is a smart play, but the players who drive play and gain zone entry with puck possession are the drivers of offense in hockey.

This article appears based on the Philadelphia Flyers 2011-12 season. The rest of the NHL might be different. College hockey, too. Still the conclusion seems to show significant differences, that carrying in is twice as effective as dumping in, in generating shots, for the Flyers last year: 0.57 per rush vs. 0.25 per dump-in rush. I believe the writer said even less skilled, third lines would benefit.

But do teams self-select: If you're physical more than deft, does dumping in then increase your chances? What about more esoteric links: Do teams change strategies in OT? Does a carry-in game lead to fewer injuries and lost player-days? Is it more exciting and draws more fans?

[Josh '99]

...it is proven that carry ins create more shots per zone entry than dump and chase...

Source?  I'm not disputing what you're saying (though I would be inclined to guess it varies from team to team), but if this has, in fact, been proven, then I'd be curious to read the proof.

NHL Numbers has a whole series on why a zone entry with possession is better than dump and chase. Also it should just be common sense that your offense should be more effective if you're not risking turning the puck over just to get it back deep. Obviously there's still situations when a dump is a smart play, but the players who drive play and gain zone entry with puck possession are the drivers of offense in hockey.

Interesting read, thanks.

[css228]

...it is proven that carry ins create more shots per zone entry than dump and chase...

Source?  I'm not disputing what you're saying (though I would be inclined to guess it varies from team to team), but if this has, in fact, been proven, then I'd be curious to read the proof.

NHL Numbers has a whole series on why a zone entry with possession is better than dump and chase. Also it should just be common sense that your offense should be more effective if you're not risking turning the puck over just to get it back deep. Obviously there's still situations when a dump is a smart play, but the players who drive play and gain zone entry with puck possession are the drivers of offense in hockey.

This article appears based on the Philadelphia Flyers 2011-12 season. The rest of the NHL might be different. College hockey, too. Still the conclusion seems to show significant differences, that carrying in is twice as effective as dumping in, in generating shots, for the Flyers last year: 0.57 per rush vs. 0.25 per dump-in rush. I believe the writer said even less skilled, third lines would benefit.

But do teams self-select: If you're physical more than deft, does dumping in then increase your chances? What about more esoteric links: Do teams change strategies in OT? Does a carry-in game lead to fewer injuries and lost player-days? Is it more exciting and draws more fans?

The reason it focuses on the Flyers is that one of the bloggers at Broad Street Hockey tracked every zone entry and result of that zone entry for the entire season. Regarding the skill vs size question, the data seems to show that it seems that zone entry success is a skill unto itself that can come from being strong and skilled (e.g. Jagr) skilled and fast (e.g. Giroux, Briere), strong on the puck (e.g. Voracek and JvR). At the same having these skills such as speed (e.g. Read) or strength on the puck (e.g. Simmonds) doesn't guarantee neutral zone success. So I tend to lean toward the belief that while skill on the puck is important, and strength on the puck is important, it seems that being able to carry/pass the puck in is a skill in itself. Well that and the having the ability to skate, unlike Hartnell.

[Trotsky]

The reason it focuses on the Flyers is that one of the bloggers at Broad Street Hockey tracked every zone entry and result of that zone entry for the entire (season)

This sort of thing makes me feel well adjusted.

[css228]

The reason it focuses on the Flyers is that one of the bloggers at Broad Street Hockey tracked every zone entry and result of that zone entry for the entire (season)

This sort of thing makes me feel well adjusted.

I do believe SB Nation pays their bloggers, but its still insane.

[KeithK]

This article appears based on the Philadelphia Flyers 2011-12 season....

The reason it focuses on the Flyers is that one of the bloggers at Broad Street Hockey tracked every zone entry and result of that zone entry for the entire season.

Sure, it's a data availability thing.  While there may be other equally less well adjusted people out there tracking other NHL teams (or college teams) if we don't have access to the data we can't use it to draw conclusions.  That said, just because this is the only data set we have doesn't necessarily make it representative.  Draw your conclusions but keep in mind that they might not apply equally to all teams at all levels.

[Tom Lento]

The reason it focuses on the Flyers is that one of the bloggers at Broad Street Hockey tracked every zone entry and result of that zone entry for the entire (season)

This sort of thing makes me feel well adjusted.

I do believe SB Nation pays their bloggers, but its still insane.

With the right tools it might not be that much harder than watching every game for the purpose of writing a game-by-game season diary. Which would also be insane, but somehow feels a lot more normal for a sportswriter.

Personally, I love the fact that they did this. Based on a quick read I think there are some flaws in their analysis, and it seems like they need better data and more of it to correct the most obvious failings (e.g., shots on goal instead of a direct measure of scoring). Because I'm also crazy, I've been thinking about ways to collect better data, and I believe a fairly simple tablet app could work. It might be a fun side project, build a UI for tracking turnovers, zone transitions, shot locations and outcomes, build in an automated uploader to collect data from anybody crazy enough to do this for even one game, and do some analysis... but I doubt anyone would ever use it.

[Give My Regards]

Because I'm also crazy, I've been thinking about ways to collect better data, and I believe a fairly simple tablet app could work. It might be a fun side project, build a UI for tracking turnovers, zone transitions, shot locations and outcomes, build in an automated uploader to collect data from anybody crazy enough to do this for even one game, and do some analysis... but I doubt anyone would ever use it.

"If you build it, they will come."

[css228]

The reason it focuses on the Flyers is that one of the bloggers at Broad Street Hockey tracked every zone entry and result of that zone entry for the entire (season)

This sort of thing makes me feel well adjusted.

I do believe SB Nation pays their bloggers, but its still insane.

With the right tools it might not be that much harder than watching every game for the purpose of writing a game-by-game season diary. Which would also be insane, but somehow feels a lot more normal for a sportswriter.

Personally, I love the fact that they did this. Based on a quick read I think there are some flaws in their analysis, and it seems like they need better data and more of it to correct the most obvious failings (e.g., shots on goal instead of a direct measure of scoring). Because I'm also crazy, I've been thinking about ways to collect better data, and I believe a fairly simple tablet app could work. It might be a fun side project, build a UI for tracking turnovers, zone transitions, shot locations and outcomes, build in an automated uploader to collect data from anybody crazy enough to do this for even one game, and do some analysis... but I doubt anyone would ever use it.

According to the guy who did it, he just used a DVR.

[Tom Lento]

The reason it focuses on the Flyers is that one of the bloggers at Broad Street Hockey tracked every zone entry and result of that zone entry for the entire (season)

This sort of thing makes me feel well adjusted.

I do believe SB Nation pays their bloggers, but its still insane.

With the right tools it might not be that much harder than watching every game for the purpose of writing a game-by-game season diary. Which would also be insane, but somehow feels a lot more normal for a sportswriter.

Personally, I love the fact that they did this. Based on a quick read I think there are some flaws in their analysis, and it seems like they need better data and more of it to correct the most obvious failings (e.g., shots on goal instead of a direct measure of scoring). Because I'm also crazy, I've been thinking about ways to collect better data, and I believe a fairly simple tablet app could work. It might be a fun side project, build a UI for tracking turnovers, zone transitions, shot locations and outcomes, build in an automated uploader to collect data from anybody crazy enough to do this for even one game, and do some analysis... but I doubt anyone would ever use it.

According to the guy who did it, he just used a DVR.

I'd be surprised if he attempted to do this live. How did he track the zone entries and shots? Pen and paper? Spreadsheet? Custom software?

[css228]

The reason it focuses on the Flyers is that one of the bloggers at Broad Street Hockey tracked every zone entry and result of that zone entry for the entire (season)

This sort of thing makes me feel well adjusted.

I do believe SB Nation pays their bloggers, but its still insane.

With the right tools it might not be that much harder than watching every game for the purpose of writing a game-by-game season diary. Which would also be insane, but somehow feels a lot more normal for a sportswriter.

Personally, I love the fact that they did this. Based on a quick read I think there are some flaws in their analysis, and it seems like they need better data and more of it to correct the most obvious failings (e.g., shots on goal instead of a direct measure of scoring). Because I'm also crazy, I've been thinking about ways to collect better data, and I believe a fairly simple tablet app could work. It might be a fun side project, build a UI for tracking turnovers, zone transitions, shot locations and outcomes, build in an automated uploader to collect data from anybody crazy enough to do this for even one game, and do some analysis... but I doubt anyone would ever use it.

According to the guy who did it, he just used a DVR.

I'd be surprised if he attempted to do this live. How did he track the zone entries and shots? Pen and paper? Spreadsheet? Custom software?

Pen and paper Methodology here

[David Harding]

The reason it focuses on the Flyers is that one of the bloggers at Broad Street Hockey tracked every zone entry and result of that zone entry for the entire (season)

This sort of thing makes me feel well adjusted.

I do believe SB Nation pays their bloggers, but its still insane.

With the right tools it might not be that much harder than watching every game for the purpose of writing a game-by-game season diary. Which would also be insane, but somehow feels a lot more normal for a sportswriter.

Personally, I love the fact that they did this. Based on a quick read I think there are some flaws in their analysis, and it seems like they need better data and more of it to correct the most obvious failings (e.g., shots on goal instead of a direct measure of scoring). Because I'm also crazy, I've been thinking about ways to collect better data, and I believe a fairly simple tablet app could work. It might be a fun side project, build a UI for tracking turnovers, zone transitions, shot locations and outcomes, build in an automated uploader to collect data from anybody crazy enough to do this for even one game, and do some analysis... but I doubt anyone would ever use it.

According to the guy who did it, he just used a DVR.

I'd be surprised if he attempted to do this live. How did he track the zone entries and shots? Pen and paper? Spreadsheet? Custom software?

Pen and paper Methodology here

This summary account of the methodology and overall conclusions hints at potential flaw in the analysis.  I don't see mention of the quality the opponents defenders as an independent variable.  The skills of the individual Flyers defenders is acknowledged as contributing the neutral zone activity.  I wonder whether, on the average, better opposing defenders reduced the Flyers forwards' ability to carry the puck in and also reduced their ability to score once the puck was in the zone.  That would generate the reported correlation.