Men's soccer off to 8-0 start

Started by Thomas Larson, September 27, 2012, 04:14:23 PM

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Ben

Quote from: Thomas LarsonThis undefeated run has to end soon, right?
DON'T SAY THAT WHY WOULD YOU SAY THAT

-edit- That sounded angrier than it should have. Either way, defeatism is punishable by death. Yale is next, they're pretty mediocre.

css228

Quote from: Ben
Quote from: Thomas LarsonThis undefeated run has to end soon, right?
DON'T SAY THAT WHY WOULD YOU SAY THAT

-edit- That sounded angrier than it should have. Either way, defeatism is punishable by death. Yale is next, they're pretty mediocre.
So was Chelsea last year, and they won the Champions League

Ken70

According to this game report last night was carbon copy of what I saw at Harvard. Colgate

So this bend-but-don't-break defending and opportunistic scoring seems to be the modus operandi.  If it's what your talent dictates, so be it.  

The Princeton-Creighton game was on ESPNU last night and although Princeton lost in OT they look to be a pretty good side (Creighton is a ranked team).  Those of you in Ithaca should go to that one for sure.  Depending on what happens the week before at Brown the Princeton game will either go most of the way to sewing up the Ivy title or be a must win to get back in the race.

Thomas Larson

Quote from: Ben
Quote from: Thomas LarsonThis undefeated run has to end soon, right?
DON'T SAY THAT WHY WOULD YOU SAY THAT

-edit- That sounded angrier than it should have. Either way, defeatism is punishable by death. Yale is next, they're pretty mediocre.

I take it you don't believe in Bill Simmons reverse jinxes?

jtn27

Quote from: Ben
Quote from: Thomas LarsonThis undefeated run has to end soon, right?
DON'T SAY THAT WHY WOULD YOU SAY THAT

-edit- That sounded angrier than it should have. Either way, defeatism is punishable by death. Yale is next, they're pretty mediocre.

Because threatening him with death sounds a lot less angry than hitting caplocks.
Class of 2013

Al DeFlorio

Quote from: Ken70According to this game report last night was carbon copy of what I saw at Harvard. Colgate

So this bend-but-don't-break defending and opportunistic scoring seems to be the modus operandi.  If it's what your talent dictates, so be it.  

The Princeton-Creighton game was on ESPNU last night and although Princeton lost in OT they look to be a pretty good side (Creighton is a ranked team).  Those of you in Ithaca should go to that one for sure.  Depending on what happens the week before at Brown the Princeton game will either go most of the way to sewing up the Ivy title or be a must win to get back in the race.
Cornell #16, Brown #19 in this week's NCAA poll.  (Creighton #24)
Al DeFlorio '65

ugarte

Quote from: Thomas LarsonCan I change the name of this thread? I'm underselling them with "8-0."

This undefeated run has to end soon, right?
Yes, you can change the name of the thread if you want to make it something generic like "holy shit when did Cornell get a soccer team?"

billhoward

Quote from: ugarte
Quote from: Thomas LarsonCan I change the name of this thread? I'm underselling them with "8-0."

This undefeated run has to end soon, right?
Yes, you can change the name of the thread if you want to make it something generic like "holy shit when did Cornell get a soccer team?"
Cornell had a real soccer team that made the NCAA final four. Around the time Superman was a Cornell undergrad. Okay, it has been a while.

Ken70

From here out all of the Big Red's games are basically must win, including today.  Their chances of making the 48 team NCAA field depend mostly on winning the Ivy title, and its auto-bid.  Just as in hockey and lacrosse the RPI plays a predominant role in selection for the teams not receiving auto-bids (about 26 at-large teams in this case).  The basic formula is the same and there are bonus points for quality wins, and even draws, as well as negative points for bad losses, all based on the opponent's own RPI ranking.  

As is sometimes the case in hockey, the Cornell soccer team has a very low SOS, even relative to its main Ivy rivals.  Dartmouth's opponents, for example, have a combined W-L-T of 92-69-34 compared to the Red's 66-99-23.  Princeton's rivals to date are 96-81-24 while Brown's are a more comparable 73-91-27.  The selection committee looks very closely at non-league RPI for the at-large teams, particularly those on the bubble, and Cornell's non-league opponents were the weakest part of their schedule.  There's no soccer equivalent of USCHO so getting a read on selection probabilities relies on the NCAA's own published RPI, which should appear for the first time next week.  We'll have a better idea then as to "plan B".

Does the post season matter that much for Cornell in soccer?  I'd say yes.  While the Ivy title is clearly goal #1, getting to and going deep into the tournament is quite an accomplishment and is recognized as such.  Last year Brown made the third round, the Sweet 16 out of 200+ Div 1 soccer programs. Results like that establish and validate a program, and make recruiting much more effective as in any sport.  Being a year in, year out, nationally ranked team (like hockey or lacrosse, or Brown in soccer) is a trajectory Cornell could be on with their "new" coach, who's in his 4th year and starting to see the effects of his recruiting and system take hold.  Who wouldn't want to see that?

ugarte

Does the ivy league ever get at-large bids? I seem to recall that they do.

Weder

Quote from: ugarteDoes the ivy league ever get at-large bids? I seem to recall that they do.

Four Ivy teams made the 2010 tournament.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_NCAA_Division_I_Men's_Soccer_Championship

I don't follow college soccer. Was that an unusually strong year for Ivy teams?

EDIT: In scanning the past few years' brackets, it seems common for multiple Ivy teams to make the tournament.
3/8/96

nyc94


Ken70

Quote from: ugarteDoes the ivy league ever get at-large bids? I seem to recall that they do.

The dynamics are the same as hockey: if your conference, including you, plays strong teams in its non-league matches and does well, and you have a decent record against your conference foes you'll have a high RPI and be well placed for an at-large berth.  In soccer the Big East and ACC are the equivalents of the WCHA and Hockey East, but I think the Ivy League is a bit stronger in soccer than the ECAC in hockey.  This year Cornell just happened to have an exceptionally weak out of conference schedule, and the other Ivies aren't getting many wins against their stronger non-Ivy opponents.

If Cornell wins the title and one of Brown, Dartmouth or Princeton win out except for their Cornell loss then one of those could get a berth, Brown in particular.  But that's just speculation at this point, we'll know more about the at-large landscape when the first NCAA RPI comes out, maybe on Tuesday.

Thomas Larson

This guy over from the other coast does a pretty solid job trying to estimate the RPI. By his guess, we're 32 right now. You'd like us to be a bit higher, but a win over Brown would help out a lot next weekend. He updates very regularly -- already has today's result accounted for -- though not sure how accurate he is.

General Forum with four RPI-related links
All Teams' RPIs

David Harding

Quote from: Thomas LarsonThis guy over from the other coast does a pretty solid job trying to estimate the RPI. By his guess, we're 32 right now. You'd like us to be a bit higher, but a win over Brown would help out a lot next weekend. He updates very regularly -- already has today's result accounted for -- though not sure how accurate he is.

General Forum with four RPI-related links
All Teams' RPIs
So I'll ask, does anyone compute a Bradley-Terry for men's NCAA soccer?  Matt Carberry does it for MLS.  http://mattcarberry.com/ZRatings/ZRatings.html