You Are The Committee

jy3 · March 21, 2009, 09:19:52 AM

I could not find a nightmare scenario of Cornell getting left out. The lowest I could get Cornell was #11 with all the upsets. I did not go nuts, though

KeithK · March 21, 2009, 09:23:41 AM

[quote ugarte][quote KeithK]1) As expected, we have almost certainly clinched a bid. [/quote]
Have you found a nightmare scenario or are you saying "almost" because you haven't run all of the scenarios?[/quote]
No nightmare scenarios. I'm quite confidant that we are a lock now. But I haven't run all of the scenarios so I figured I'd put that disclaimer in.

I think I stopped at 313 out of 864. After four hours of clicking I had had enough. (Needed something to do to keep me awake.)

Ken70 · March 21, 2009, 10:24:39 AM

Cornell is 12th if Yale and Princeton win, UML upsets BU, WI beats NoDak, MNDuluth beats DU and Mercyhurst wins.

But it's meaningless in any case. Cornell is in no matter what and there are no scenarios I've found for Cornell to logically stay east.

From the standpoint of NCAAs tonight's game is meaningless unless you're fretting about being in the Notre Dame or Denver bracket.

Ken70 · March 21, 2009, 10:39:28 AM

There is one chance to play in the BU bracket: we win, NoDak wins and DU wins. Inthat case even though we finish 7th the committee may flip us to the BU bracket in 8th to avoid a first round (8 v 9) matchup between Vermont and Northeastern.

I know they seed in bands, but they tend to respect traditional seedings (e.g., 1-8-9-16) if there's no reason not to.

Jeff Hopkins '82 · March 21, 2009, 11:37:43 AM

We can all take solace in the fact that if Princeton wins tonight, both Miami and Ohio State wind up in the 4-band. Since those 2 can't play Notre Dame or Michigan, that means that BU, the probable #1 seed who would have gotten to play Bemidji, gets to play Ohio State or Miami. Sounds like us back in '03.

adamw · March 21, 2009, 01:08:21 PM

[quote KeithK]So far I've run 288 of the remaining 864 possibilities on CHN (33%). That's every case with Air Force winning the AHA title, except those with a tie in the CCHA consolation (just because, no good reason). Some observations:

1) As expected, we have almost certainly clinched a bid. If we beat Yale we'll probably be a #2. If we lose we're probably a #3.

- 1a) We can still be a #3 if UML and NoDak win.

2) Yale seems locked into the 5 slot and so would be a #2 seed.

3) In almost every case I've run the loser of the ECAC consy staying home and the winner gettign a bid. Princeton gets the bid with a tie. However, if Mich, NMU and UMD win and NoDak ties Wisc, SLU could lose out to Minnesota (see #6).

4) The top 4 (BU, ND, DU, Mich) seem pretty locked in. Michigan and Denver can switch places if Michigan wins and Denver loses.

5) Minnesota can still sneak into the tournament. So far it looks like they need NMU and BU to win tomorrow to give them a chance.

6) Miami has appears to be backing into the tournament even after losing in the CCHA quarterfinals. They can even get a #3 seed by finishing 12th.

7) Likewise, OSU gets in most of the time if Lowell doesn't beat BU.

----

Just completed 24 cases with Mercyhurst winning, which has more effect than I had guessed. Biggest difference is that Mercyhurst helps Minnesota get in, often at the expense of SLU.[/quote]

Keith - I cannot find any scenarios where Mercyhurst wins, and it manages to keep SLU out even with SLU winning. Can you help me out here. Even in scenario No. 3 above - I don't see it.

7. There are numerous wacky scenarios involving Ohio State. It comes down to their comparison with Air Force, by miniscule RPI percentage points either way, based upon various other games that you'd otherwise think would have no effect. Get enough RPI pts to win the AFA comparison, and OSU gets in - don't win that comparison - and they are out.

I have a scenario where Wisconsin wins the consy - and loses out on a bid by .0003 RPI to Ohio State.

jy3 · March 21, 2009, 01:23:42 PM

yup you are correct - I see Cornell 12th there too with those outcomes now thanks. So that seems to be the lowest

Oat · March 21, 2009, 01:26:17 PM

If Cornell wins tonight, we are definitely going west right? Yale is locked into Bridgeport as host.

Can anyone find a Cornell-winning scenario where we might get to stay out here on the east coast?

Scersk '97 · March 21, 2009, 01:40:18 PM

[quote Oat]If Cornell wins tonight, we are definitely going west right? Yale is locked into Bridgeport as host.

Can anyone find a Cornell-winning scenario where we might get to stay out here on the east coast?[/quote]

It's basically as Ken70 suggested above. If Cornell ends up a #2 seed, they will not go to Bridgeport, and so the ranking must match them with UNH or suggest that the committee adjust the brackets in order to avoid an all HE first-round game.

Jeff Hopkins '82 · March 21, 2009, 02:50:08 PM

If we lose tonight and all the favorites win, we end up a 3 seed, with Duluth, Vermont and the other ECAC school. UHN ends up in the 2-band. In that case, the committee does have the option of putting us in Manchester. We'd be the closest to a 8-9 pairing with UHN. But they could also conclude that attendance in Manchester is no problem and send us to Grand Rapids to boost attendance at that bracket.

Pretty much all the other scenarios I've found with us losing tonight, have UNH in the three band with us and another ECAC school. In that case, we're going west.

Jeff Hopkins '82 · March 21, 2009, 03:11:42 PM

It gets more complicated if we win.

If all the favorites win except us, God only knows what the committee will do. I suspect that we'll have a chance at playing in Manchester. They need to move NU somewhere to avoid the match-up with UVM and UHN. If they keep NoDak in Minneapolis for attendance, then we go to Manchester and NU goes to Grand Rapids. However, they do have the option of sending us out west and NoDak to Manchester. Not sure why they'd do it, but the option is there.

If NoDak loses instead, UVM and NU are the other two 2 seeds, and we go to Manchester.

Beyond that, it's way too complicated if other upsets start happening. All I can see is we don't want all upsets. That lets Minnesota back in. We don't want that. :-D

marty · March 21, 2009, 03:27:20 PM

Didn't Manchester sell out in December when they had the regionals there in 07 or 06?

adamw · March 21, 2009, 04:01:26 PM

Note... it's pretty well established that the committee has not given a hoot about attendance since the 16-team tournament started in 2003. This is still bandied about every year by the old-timers (like me) who think that this is still the case ... but it's been clear every year since 2003 that the only thing the committee cares about is keeping the purity of 1-16-8-9, 2-15-7-10, etc... if possible, obviously, after adjusting for other factors.

There is no instance that I know of where attendance was a factor - except when Air Force was swapped with the CHA champ in order to keep them in Colorado Springs two years ago. But they have been more for travel concerns than anything.

i.e. all talk of how the "committee may choose to keep team 'x' here because of attendance" is completely meaningless.

marty · March 21, 2009, 05:57:20 PM

Wasn't there a fleeting mention of less lengthy travel for teams during 2007 or 2008? I don't read Jason's committee articles carefully so I don't know if he has mentioned it this year.

KeithK · March 21, 2009, 06:09:08 PM

[quote adamw]
Keith - I cannot find any scenarios where Mercyhurst wins, and it manages to keep SLU out even with SLU winning. Can you help me out here. Even in scenario No. 3 above - I don't see it.
[/quote]
I had a whole spreadsheet showing all of the combinations that I ran. I still have it, but it's at work, where I was running them. So I can check it tonight at midnight Pacific after it doesn't matter anymore. :-)

t's entirely possible I mistyped or misread stuff. I was up all night.