Harvard pre-game

[lynah80]

It's fitting that the regular season should end with a home game against Harvard.  A win will give Cornell either a third or fourth place finish for the regular season.  

Harvard is known for its talented freshman class that played extremely well at the beginning of the season.  However, the team went on a 9-game winless streak during December and January.  To some extent, the disappointing outcomes can be attributed to their difficult schedule, since they played BC, St. Cloud, Princeton, Clarkson, and Quinnipiac during that time.      

Harvard has a number of similarities to Cornell.  Their strengths are defense (H=2.32 vs C=2.11 goals/game) and goal tending (H=.922 vs C=.930 save%).  Their team is of average size (H=193 vs C=189 lbs without goalies).  Cornell has a better power play (H=18.2 vs C=20.7%) but a slightly worse penalty kill (H=86.5 vs C=85.4%).  

Harvard has two primary scoring lines that typically include: M_Biega (9-6-15) Dufault (6-6-12) & Pelle (9-11-20) and McCollem (4-6-10) Rogers (11-14-25) & Taylor (8-15-23).  Ted Donato likes to shuffle these lines somewhat, but the Taylor line will likely be unchanged against Cornell.  Since Mike will have the last line change on face offs, the Taylor line (avg wt 193) will hopefully see a lot of Scali, Fontas and Nicholls (avg wt 196).  I don't think Harvard plays as physical a game as Cornell normally does and they may be a little sore after getting roughed up by Colgate last night.  With regard to physical play, Harvard has spent less time in the box than Cornell (12.4 vs. 14.7 PIM/game).  Staying cool will be essential for the Big Red tonight.  I'm sure everyone remembers the 2006 game at Lynah where there were four 10-minute misconducts.  Also, a 5-minute major in the third period against Cam Abbott led to a pair of Harvard goals that cost the Big Red the game.  

The summaries of last nights Harvard-Colgate game suggest that it was played fairly evenly.  I watched the end of the game and neither team was dominant.    

In all, Harvard and Cornell are fairly evenly matched.  Fortunately, the Big Red will have the advantage of playing in Lynah, which will be especially significant against a young Harvard team.

Cornell 4, Harvard 2

[Scersk '97]

Extremely evenly matched.  "Staying cool," as mentioned above, is paramount:  if things go according to form, we should have one more power play opportunity than Harvard on the night.  (I'm thinking Nicholls is out tomorrow, since Mugford was able to keep himself out of the box tonight and the checking line is best with him.)  Hopefully, that power-play chance comes in the first and we score the go-ahead goal.

Harvard seemingly has a weak checking line and defender http://www.collegehockeynews.com/stats/team-overall.php?s=20072008&td=22&gsort=GAA&sort=PM that, perhaps, can be exploited with the last change.  I'm guessing it'll be the Nash line (large, speedy, good defenders) vs. Biega/Dufault/Pelle (small, speedy, not-so-good defenders).  I wonder if Barlow (after his night off) will be back with Nash and Greening to add a little more speed and offense; that is the true scoring line this season, and it's almost as if Schafer has been keeping it under wraps, even though that might just have been serendipitous.  I would guess that P. Kennedy goes back to the third line with Gallagher and Devin.  I agree that the Fontas line will probably get McCollem/Rogers/Taylor.  Our second and third lines need to eat their third and checking lines for lunch; woe to their checking line should the rejuvenated Sawada and crafty Kennedy get a lot of time against them.

If the game is mostly played 5 on 5, I think we win; otherwise, it's a crapshoot.  It's gonna be a close one.  (Or maybe, like that supposedly close Colgate playoff series back in '96, it'll be a huge blowout in our favor.  Right.)

PS  Crimson Killer:  Topher Scott with a goal (power play) and two assists, one on the power play (Greening) and one to M. Kennedy (even).

PPS  Bonus wild prediction:  Fontas scores the first shortie of the season at around five minutes into the third, opening up a two-goal lead.

[lynah80]

I agree that Barlow adds a significant spark to the first line.  However, I don't think that Mike completely trusts him when it comes to playing defense.  He has sat out on a few occasions this year when he was listed as healthy.   Part of the problem is simply his size.  Given that Harvard is not a big offensive team, my guess is that he will start.

I think Mike will stack the checking line (Mugford, Fontas, Scali) if Donato stacks his first line.  

Harvard has allowed two short-handed goals this year.  Let's hope for #3.

[sah67]

[quote Scersk '97]

PPS  Bonus wild prediction:  Fontas scores the first shortie of the season at around five minutes into the third, opening up a two-goal lead.[/quote]

I'll make the same shortie prediction, but my money's on Scali

Speaking of that though, when was the last time Cornell went an entire regular season without scoring a shortie?

[Beeeej]

[quote sah67][quote Scersk '97]

PPS  Bonus wild prediction:  Fontas scores the first shortie of the season at around five minutes into the third, opening up a two-goal lead.[/quote]

I'll make the same shortie prediction, but my money's on Scali

Speaking of that though, when was the last time Cornell went an entire regular season without scoring a shortie?[/quote]

From 3/23/02 to 10/29/04, a span of 69 games that included the entire 2002-03 season and the entire 2003-04 season, Cornell scored no shorthanded goals.

Yes, that includes the Frozen Four season.  Kinda remarkable, huh?

[ebilmes]

[quote Beeeej]
From 3/23/02 to 10/29/04, a span of 69 games that included the entire 2002-03 season and the entire 2003-04 season, Cornell scored no shorthanded goals.

Yes, that includes the Frozen Four season.  Kinda remarkable, huh?[/quote]

This is why we were all so surprised when Iggulden scored 3 shorties during the 04-05 season. When it rains, it pours.

I thought for sure that Kennedy would score on the shorthanded breakaway last night.

Still, it was a great game. I'm just a little nervous that we'll have a let-down tonight.

[Chris '03]

[quote sah67][quote Scersk '97]

PPS  Bonus wild prediction:  Fontas scores the first shortie of the season at around five minutes into the third, opening up a two-goal lead.[/quote]

I'll make the same shortie prediction, but my money's on Scali

Speaking of that though, when was the last time Cornell went an entire regular season without scoring a shortie?[/quote]

It happened a lot when I was in school. At least it felt that way...

[Robb]

[quote Chris '03][quote sah67][quote Scersk '97]

PPS  Bonus wild prediction:  Fontas scores the first shortie of the season at around five minutes into the third, opening up a two-goal lead.[/quote]

I'll make the same shortie prediction, but my money's on Scali

Speaking of that though, when was the last time Cornell went an entire regular season without scoring a shortie?[/quote]

It happened a lot when I was in school. At least it felt that way...[/quote]
Heck,when I was in school, not scoring at all happened a lot - we wouldn't have known what to do with a shorty!  Yes, I'm still bummed that out of the 40 years of Cornell hockey, I was there for Aug 90- Dec 95.  Utter disappointment in 91, followed by 4 years of horror.  In a cruel twist of fate, I even lived close enough to Clarkson to witness the beatings in March of '95.  Ouch.

[lynah80]

Senior captain Jesse Winchester (8-26-34, +16) did not skate for Colgate last night against Harvard.  It seems they did pretty well in spite of that.

[Scersk '97]

[quote lynah80]I agree that Barlow adds a significant spark to the first line.  However, I don't think that Mike completely trusts him when it comes to playing defense.  He has sat out on a few occasions this year when he was listed as healthy.   Part of the problem is simply his size.  Given that Harvard is not a big offensive team, my guess is that he will start.
[/quote]

You know, it seems to be common knowledge that "Barlow as defensive liability" is why he gets sat, but it's difficult to show that statistically:

* He's got the second best +/- on the team:
http://www.collegehockeynews.com/stats/team-overall.php?s=20072008&td=18&gsort=GAA&sort=PM

* He's been seeing time on the penalty kill over the last few games that he's been in:
http://www.collegehockeystats.net/0708/boxes/mclgcor1.f01
http://www.collegehockeystats.net/0708/boxes/mcorstl1.f09

(Though, of course, we're showing that he's on the penalty kill in these boxes when we get scored on, but them's the breaks.)

I'm starting to wonder, instead, if Barlow has some sort of nagging injury that we don't know about.  Or maybe Schafer just likes him mad.

[amerks127]

Considering Cornell didn't score more than 2 goals in league games (not counting EN goals i.e. Colgate) against Clarkson, Princeton, Union, Harvard, Colgate, Yale...and considering that 4 of the 5 teams we have done it against are in the last 4 spots in the standings, I would not bet the house on Cornell scoring more than 2 goals tonight.  Yeah, we've put up 13 in the last two home games, but RPI and Dartmouth have just awful awful defense.

Don't expect the same from Harvard.  Expect this to be a very tight game, much like it was at Lynah East earlier this year.  I'm predicting a one-goal, 2-1 game, again.  Both teams know exactly what is at stake: Onion will not lose to Brown.  That makes it all the more important that Cornell not tie tonight, because a tie and an Onion victory puts us at 5th spot.  Harvard also knows with a win they jump to 3rd.

Thus, expect the teams to play tight tonight and wait out their chances.  It's going to be playoff atmosphere tonight in Lynah, and why shouldn't it be otherwise.

I like our edge tonight, and I think we'll take down Harvard.  It's all gonna be up to Scrivens.  This is a big game for him.

Cornell 2, Harvard 1

[lynah80]

[quote Scersk '97]
I'm starting to wonder, instead, if Barlow has some sort of nagging injury that we don't know about.  Or maybe Schafer just likes him mad.[/quote]

It's hard to know for sure what is going on with Barlow.  Comments made in spoken interviews by Schafer and Cornell players suggest that he is not doing his part defensively.  

However, Schafer has also said that Barlow has the potential to be one of the best forwards in the league.

[redhair34]

[quote lynah80][quote Scersk '97]
Cornell players suggest that he is not "doing his part" defensively.  
[/quote]

What?

[Scersk '97]

[quote Robb]In a cruel twist of fate, I even lived close enough to Clarkson to witness the beatings in March of '95.  Ouch.[/quote]

"OK, you, you, you, and you--into the box!"

and then:

"Not so fast, Wilson.  Back in the box!"

Code Select Expand


Period 2
========
Scoring
-------
1533 Clk Tuomainen (Mueller, Robitaille) ppg gwg
1659 Clk Morin (Mueller, Tuomainen) ppg
1804 Clk Robitaille (Mueller, Lipsett) ppg
 
Penalties
---------
 136 Clk Tuomainen (slashing)
 513 Clk White (tripping)
1235 Cor Dailey (holding)
1442 Cor Kendall (cross-checking)
1442 Cor Kendall (roughing)
1508 Cor Felli (slashing)
1508 Cor Cooney (misconduct) (10)
1533 Cor S. Wilson (cross-checking)
1856 Cor S. Wilson (cross-checking)
2000 Clk Clark (roughing)


[ursusminor]

[quote amerks127]I would not bet the house on Cornell scoring more than 2 goals tonight.  Yeah, we've put up 13 in the last two home games, but RPI and Dartmouth have just awful awful defense.[/quote] RPI's defense didn't do badly against Brown on Friday, and Brown ... ... ... I guess that you're right, RPI has an awful awful defense. ::whistle::

Seriously, RPI's defense has had its ups and downs all year. You got us on a definite down night. I guess that is what one should expect from a defense that consists of only freshmen and sophomores. With everyone back next season and the addition of redshirt Matt Zarbo and Mike Bergin who is rated very highly by Chris Heisenberg, they should be improved. Allen York in goal should also help.