Bracketology, '07 edition

[DeltaOne81]

Overall seedings with .0030 bonus:
-> This assumes that UMass wins the 3 way tie because they beat Maine & SLU head-to-head. If you break on straight RPI, those 3 are rearranged, and you get Adam's answer here: http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2007/03/17_bracket.php
1) Minn
2) Notre Dame
3) Clarkson
4) UNH
5) BC
6) SCSU
7) Bu
Mich
9) Mich St
10) UND
11) UMass
12) SLU
13) Maine
14) Miami
15) Air Force (AQ)
16) UAH (AQ)

Seed the 4 #1s by geography (and UNH is host anyway):
Minn -> Denver (W)
Notre Dame -> Grand Rapids (MW)
Clarkson --> Rochester
UNH --> Manchester
(you could argue Minn should go to GR, that would probably change things, but this would be my guess)

No other hosts to deal with. Denver, WMU, and RPI didn't make it (neither did the ECAC as a conference )

Then doing the 1-16, 2-15 matches means:
NE:
1) UNH, 2) BC, 3) SLU, 4) Maine
E:
1) Clk, 2) SCSU, 3) UMass, 4) Miami
MW:
1) NotreD, 2) BU, 3) UND, 4) Air Force
W:
1) Minn, 2) Mich, 3) Mich St, 4) UAH

Problems: UNH/Maine, Mich/Mich St

Solution: Flip #13 Maine w/ #14 Miami & #9 Mich St w/ #10 UND

New brackets:
NE:
1) UNH
2) BC
3) SLU
4) Miami
E:
1) Clk
2) SCSU
3) UMass
4) Maine
MW:
1) Notre Dame
2) BU
3) Mich St
4) Air Force
W:
1) Minn
2) Mich
3) UND
4) UAH

[Will]

Three WCHA teams make the dance.  Crazy.

On the bright side, though, Cornell is 2-0-1 against 1-seeds this year. :-D

[DeltaOne81]

They appear to have broken the tie via straight RPI - i.e. Adam W's guess.

In my opinion, that's very wrong. But, they can do what they wish I suppose.

[DeltaOne81]

An interesting, but mostly-meaningless twist by the committee.

They did 15/16 backwards, I suppose on the logic that neither was a TUC anyway, they decided to keep Air Force close to home in Denver & play Minn (assumingly) even though they should have gotten Grand Rapids & Notre Dame.

[Rita]

[quote DeltaOne81]An interesting, but mostly-meaningless twist by the committee.

They did 15/16 backwards, I suppose on the logic that neither was a TUC anyway, they decided to keep Air Force close to home in Denver & play Minn (assumingly) even though they should have gotten Grand Rapids & Notre Dame.[/quote]

Here's hoping for another upset, Go Air Force!

I'm not too surprised at this since neither CC or Denver made the tourney and Denver is a bit of a long haul with respect to fans from Michigan and Minnesota (and probably ND) to travel to. Probably a bit unfair to Minnesota but I have no sympathy for the gophers.

[DeltaOne81]

[quote Rita][quote DeltaOne81]
I'm not too surprised at this since neither CC or Denver made the tourney and Denver is a bit of a long haul with respect to fans from Michigan and Minnesota (and probably ND) to travel to. Probably a bit unfair to Minnesota but I have no sympathy for the gophers.[/quote]

True, I forgot about the attendance factor. Which has mostly been a non-factor in recent years.

Actually, Adam addressed this:

The committee can do some other things if it decides to care about attendance, but since switching to a 16-team tournament in 2003, the committee has gone Straight Pairwise every season, without fail, other than just switching to avoid first-round intra-conference matchups. The attendance issue has not been used as a factor whatsoever.

Darn good catch, Rita

[Rita]

[quote DeltaOne81][quote Rita][quote DeltaOne81]
I'm not too surprised at this since neither CC or Denver made the tourney and Denver is a bit of a long haul with respect to fans from Michigan and Minnesota (and probably ND) to travel to. Probably a bit unfair to Minnesota but I have no sympathy for the gophers.[/quote]

True, I forgot about the attendance factor. Which has mostly been a non-factor in recent years.

Actually, Adam addressed this:

The committee can do some other things if it decides to care about attendance, but since switching to a 16-team tournament in 2003, the committee has gone Straight Pairwise every season, without fail, other than just switching to avoid first-round intra-conference matchups. The attendance issue has not been used as a factor whatsoever.

Darn good catch, Rita [/quote]

Thanks .

Adam mentions that in 2003, they went straight to the pairwise (except to avoid 1st round matchup issues). Isn't 2003 the year we got Mankato State (a #14 seed?) in Providence when our seeding indicated we should have gotten an "easier" (15/16 seed) opponent?

[Will]

[quote Rita]Adam mentions that in 2003, they went straight to the pairwise (except to avoid 1st round matchup issues). Isn't 2003 the year we got Mankato State (a #14 seed?) in Providence when our seeding indicated we should have gotten an "easier" (15/16 seed) opponent?[/quote]

It got switched around so that the other 1-seeds wouldn't have to face first-round intra-conference matchups.

[DeltaOne81]

[quote Rita]Adam mentions that in 2003, they went straight to the pairwise (except to avoid 1st round matchup issues). Isn't 2003 the year we got Mankato State (a #14 seed?) in Providence when our seeding indicated we should have gotten an "easier" (15/16 seed) opponent?[/quote]

Yes, that was for intra-conference issues. Two #1s were WCHA and both other #4s (other than CHA/AHA) were WCHA.

So the WCHA #1s had to play the CHA/AHA, cause they couldn't play their conference breathen. Hence, the other two #1s needed to play the WCHA teams.

No, this wasn't all from memory - wiki rocks:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_NCAA_Men's_Division_I_Ice_Hockey_Tournament

[Rita]

[quote DeltaOne81][quote Rita]Adam mentions that in 2003, they went straight to the pairwise (except to avoid 1st round matchup issues). Isn't 2003 the year we got Mankato State (a #14 seed?) in Providence when our seeding indicated we should have gotten an "easier" (15/16 seed) opponent?[/quote]

Yes, that was for intra-conference issues. Two #1s were WCHA and both other #4s (other than CHA/AHA) were WCHA.

So the WCHA #1s had to play the CHA/AHA, cause they couldn't play their conference breathen. Hence, the other two #1s needed to play the WCHA teams.

No, this wasn't all from memory - wiki rocks:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_NCAA_Men's_Division_I_Ice_Hockey_Tournament[/quote]

Yes, Wiki is great. Since 2003 the number of WCHA teams in the tourney were:
2003, 5
2004, 5
2005, 5
2006, 4
2007, 3

Gee, is this a sign of the  WCHA is getting off its lofty perch and becoming a "mediocre" league? Do the past 2 years suggest a demise? ;-)

[oceanst41]

USCHO is starting to boil with Minnesota fans worried about "the regional of death." :-D

Simple math tells us that #8 Michigan and #10 NoDak (because of intra-conference match up issues) is actually an "easier" route to St. Louis.

[French Rage]

[quote oceanst41]USCHO is starting to boil with Minnesota fans worried about "the regional of death." :-D

Simple math tells us that #8 Michigan and #10 NoDak (because of intra-conference match up issues) is actually an "easier" route to St. Louis.[/quote]

Remember, UND going to West Regional is the NCAA punishing them!

[oceanst41]

[quote French Rage][quote oceanst41]USCHO is starting to boil with Minnesota fans worried about "the regional of death." :-D

Simple math tells us that #8 Michigan and #10 NoDak (because of intra-conference match up issues) is actually an "easier" route to St. Louis.[/quote]

Remember, UND going to West Regional is the NCAA punishing them![/quote]

So the NCAA manages to screw two WCHA teams with the same move! ::banana::

Now if only the teams were this upset and Michigan could use that to take the regional. Then we'd only have one potential WCHA team in the Frozen Four.

[DeltaOne81]

[quote oceanst41]USCHO is starting to boil with Minnesota fans worried about "the regional of death." :-D

Simple math tells us that #8 Michigan and #10 NoDak (because of intra-conference match up issues) is actually an "easier" route to St. Louis.[/quote]

I haven't posted on USCHO in ages, but you can tell them that KRACH tells them they're full of shit

Minnesota has a 60.7% chance to advance to the Frozen Four according to KRACH (which is the only rating system we can get these numbers from). The odds are so high, primarily because Minn has a 94.7% chance to beat Air Force.

Meanwhile, Clarkson has only a 57.7% chance to win their first game. And well less than 50% to advance.

Yes, Minn's second round may be tougher, but being given a nearly free pass (of course, Minn last year reminded us that its never entirely free) through the first round is a *major* boon.

If anyone got a very tough draw its Michigan, and maybe UND, but *not* Minnesota. By the system, Minn got the easiest #2. Tell them they can start whining when, as the overall #1 they don't get the AHA/CHA team in the first round, and then get the toughest #2 :-P

[oceanst41]

Well how do you reply when they say they already played Michigan and UND this year and they want to see fresh faces? ::laugh::