BU PWR question

[RedAR]

After Friday night's win, BU is nipping at our heals.  What are the chances of BU overtaking the #2 spot?  I know we win the h2h, but I'm sure the other comparisons may potentially put BU ahead of us, no?

[DeltaOne81]

Well, we get 2 point on the Head2Head. There are three other categories, so if they won all three, then yes. But, take a look at the individual comparison from here ( http://uscho.com/polls/pwrcomps.php?type=1m ) - I guarantee you they're not nipping any any part of us .

[jtwcornell91]

We lead them 7-1 to 5-2-1 in common opponents, so we'd need three common opponents losses to drop below them.  Opponents of BU we can still play are RPI, Vermont, and Harvard, but since Vermont and Harvard can't both make it to Albany (almost said "Placid" :`( ), the worst we can go is 1-2 (which would hurt our record worse than 0-1).

So yes, we have clinched the PWC with BU.

Our common opponents advantage over UHN is similarly unassailable, so we can only lose that comparison if they flip RPI and record vs TUCs (which is also affected by RPI calculations).

The good news is that we have a substantial "quality wins" advantage over UHN, giving us a bigger RPI cushion than we realize.

[Keith K \'93]

The only comparisons that I could see flipping at this point are UNH, Minnesota and Maine. (Oh, and CC if they lose at least one to UAA, but we can ignore that chance.)

UNH: We currently lead 3-0. As John said, this would require flipping both TUC and RPI.  If UNH wins today, the TUC comparison will be even if we split against TUCs in Albany, go our way if we win 2 TUCs (or 1) and go their way if we lose two.  If BU wins today, we can only lose the TUC comparison be being swept by TUCs in Albany.  RPI could flip if we stumble, though again we don't know about bonus points.  Final word - this comparison is in good shape if we don't stumble.  But root for BU today anyway.

Minnesota: We currently win RPI by .0065, easily win TUC and los COp.  Both COp and TUC are fixed, so the comparison will depend on RPI.  Minny could definitely win this one if they go deep in the WCHA playoffs, regardless of what we do.  Again, no idea of bonus points.

Maine: Currenlty 3-1, with Maine's point being H2H.  This could flip if we drop below them in RPI (currently up by .0108).  Maine, of course, is done.  We could drop below them if we stumble, but it's solid if we keep winning.

Every other comparison appears set in stone at this point.  By my math, I think the worst we can finish is #6 at this point.  Best is #1 but we would need some help from UAA (yeah, that's likely).

[nyc94]

Has anyone else noticed that, on the USCHO comparison chart, the our record against TUC varies from one comparison to another at the same moment in time?  I know that teams enter and leave TUC status but I'm talking about the chart at one particular moment.  For example, right now on the BU comparison it says our TUC is 8-3 and on the UNH comparison it is (correctly) 10-3.  I haven't noticed anything that would make a comparison flip but still, given that I barely understand RPI, I hope whoever wrote the script got it right.

[Al DeFlorio]

Perhaps head-to-head games don't count in the TUC numbers for an individual comparison.  So the two BU wins wouldn't count in our TUC number in the comparison with BU.  

Also note that BU's TUC numbers in the comparison with us are 18-10-2.  In their comparison with Fairbanks, the numbers are 18-12-2.  So their two losses to Cornell aren't counted in their comparison with us (I guess because they're already counted in the head-to-head numbers) but do count in their comparison with Fairbanks.

[DeltaOne81]

You ignore games against that team in the TUC category. So our two wins against BU give us two points in the BU comparison, but they don't additionally help us out in the TUC category.

[nyc94]

Of course.  Thanks.

[Al DeFlorio]

An impressive number buried in all this is that BU has played 32 games against TUCs this year.  Guess that's why their PWR is so high despite 12 losses.

A quick look shows Cornell having by far the highest percentage against TUCs, but we've only played 13 games against same.

[nyc94]

Makes our win at Harvard that much more important.

[Keith K \'93]

Well, when eight of the nine teams in your conference qualify as TUC's (only NU is below .5000 RPI, at .4887), it's easy to rack up the TUC games.