[LAX] Cornell at Brown

[KeithK]

Keep in mind that a lax KRACH would be a lot less accurate with some teams playing only 10 or 11 games (Cornell).  Sample sizes and all.  A lax PWR would suffer from this as well, though it's harder to quantify.

In fact, I'll make a rather radical statement here.  The shorter the season is the more it makes sense to have a smoke filled room as opposed to a strict statistical system.

[Al DeFlorio]

[Q]KeithK Wrote:

 Keep in mind that a lax KRACH would be a lot less accurate with some teams playing only 10 or 11 games (Cornell).  Sample sizes and all.  A lax PWR would suffer from this as well, though it's harder to quantify.

In fact, I'll make a rather radical statement here.  The shorter the season is the more it makes sense to have a smoke filled room as opposed to a strict statistical system.[/q]
I agree, Keith.  I don't think it's a radical assertion at all.  

I'm not convinced a 17-4 win over Princeton isn't worth more than a 9-8 win.  Frankly, I rarely disagreed with the NCAA hockey selections and bye assignments in the pre-PWR era.  What I am opposed to is naming a champion in a smoke-filled room, as was done in college lacrosse prior to 1971.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

Navy stomps Army 15-8.  Not good news for our stats.

[ben03]

[Q]Al DeFlorio Wrote:
I was writing about Cornell's strength of schedule, not RPI, as not being helped by playing Princeton and Brown.  I think you're confusing the two.
Cornell in fact dropped from 10th to 11th in RPI by beating Brown, while Towson moved up to 10th by losing to Hopkins.  But Cornell's strength of schedule is probably still in the 20+ range.  Ranking 11th in RPI and 20-something in SOS, and with best wins over Syracuse and Dartmouth--both of whom are fading--combine to put Cornell in a very precarious position in terms of getting a #6 or better seed.
[By the way, Ben, those LaxPower computer rankings use scores and score margins to determine rankings. The Wobus RPI doesn't care if you beat Princeton 9-8 or 17-4.]
[/q]
fair enough. i just played the game and never really looked into the numbers behind the rankings. :-)

[ben03]

The Terps 9-5 upset of #2 Duke in the ACC final today, coming just two days after upsetting #3 Virginia 8-7 in overtime, will make the quest for a high seed even more difficult for the Red. See story here: http://www.insidelacrosse.com/page.cfm?pagerid=2&news=fdetail&storyid=90502

[Jordan 04]

I just hope the committee doesn't screw us and send us out West!!

[French Rage]

[Q]Jordan 04 Wrote:

 I just hope the committee doesn't screw us and send us out West!![/q]

Damn Olympic sized lacrosse fields!

[Hillel Hoffmann]

I'm totally won over by this team, and no longer care that much about where they'll be sent, how they'll be seeded or who they'll play. They're so singleminded it's almost creepy.

It does make me nervous that they could end up playing on the road in the first round.

But if they win in their first round game, I don't think it will make a huge difference who they play in the quarterfinals. Cornell can play with any of the top teams, Hopkins included. Don't discount the value of Cornell's playoff experience. Think how much more tournament mileage Cornell's upperclassmen have than Duke's, for example. Going "north" or "south" in the quarterfinals doesn't matter much either. Sure, it would be nice to play a little bit closer to CU's fan base, but Cornell will be a little more familiar with -- and perhaps better suited for -- the Johns Hopkins venue. The "north" quarters will be held on the grass at Princeton Stadium, not the turf at Class of '52. This team has never played there before, whereas the current seniors nearly upset Virginia at the 2002 quarters at Homewood. I think these guys are better on turf too.

[jtwcornell91]

[Q]KeithK Wrote:

 Keep in mind that a lax KRACH would be a lot less accurate with some teams playing only 10 or 11 games (Cornell).  Sample sizes and all.  A lax PWR would suffer from this as well, though it's harder to quantify.

In fact, I'll make a rather radical statement here.  The shorter the season is the more it makes sense to have a smoke filled room as opposed to a strict statistical system.[/q]

The problem is that given the lax criteria, the smoke in that room is probably from a crack pipe.
::nut::

[billhoward]

The new Princeton (nee Palmer) Stadium will be getting artificial turf, I heard, to increase its desirability as a venue for major events. The stadium was built to be integrated into daily campus life but only gets used 6-10 times a year for football and a couple special events like this. But it's not going to happen, obviously, before the playoffs. With a 30,000 capacity, Princeton could even bid for the NCAA lax championships.

[Hillel Hoffmann]

It's FAR too early to make a reliable forecast about Cornell's potential first-round opponents. But given the current Ratings Percentage Index scene, the likely winners of the remaining unclaimed AQs, the fact that only the top eight teams are seeded, and the selection committee's desire to create geographically "natural" matchups (like last year's Hobart at Cornell playoff game), it's starting to look like Cornell's most likely opponent in the first round on the weekend of May 14-15 will be Syracuse, Army, or Albany. The key, in some ways, is the presence of only two New England teams -- one likely to be seeded (Massachusetts), another that should end up unseeded (Dartmouth). They're a good bet to play each other in the first round. Although Albany and Army might also be considered logical choices to be sent to Amherst to play Massachusetts, that would leave Dartmouth "unpaired." In the recent past, the selection committee only breaks up "natural" geographic first-round pairings when the first, second, or third seed needs cannon fodder, such as the inevitable shipment of this year's Metro Atlantic AQ winner to Baltimore to play top-seeded Johns Hopkins. If Cornell loses to Hobart on Friday, it's quite possible that Cornell will end up unseeded -- in which case their first round game might be a rematch with Army at West Point.

Edit: Although I consider it unlikely, there is a chance that Dartmouth could end up seeded...that would shake things up.

[Al DeFlorio]

[Q]Hillel Hoffmann Wrote:
But given the current Ratings Percentage Index scene, the likely winners of the remaining unclaimed AQs, the fact that only the top eight teams are seeded, and the selection committee's desire to create geographically "natural" matchups (like last year's Hobart at Cornell playoff game), it's starting to look like Cornell's most likely opponent in the first round on the weekend of May 14-15 will be Syracuse, Army, or Albany. The key, in some ways, is the presence of only two New England teams -- one likely to be seeded (Massachusetts), another that should end up unseeded (Dartmouth). They're a good bet to play each other in the first round.[/q]
I think Hillel's right.  I'm guessing a Syracuse or Army rematch, and I hope at Schoellkopf.  

Read on the LaxPower Forum that Tierney's on the NCAA committee this year.  He should have a pretty fair appreciation of what Cornell can do--wouldn't you think? ;-)

[ugarte]

[Q]Al DeFlorio Wrote:

 [Q2]Hillel Hoffmann Wrote:
But given the current Ratings Percentage Index scene, the likely winners of the remaining unclaimed AQs, the fact that only the top eight teams are seeded, and the selection committee's desire to create geographically "natural" matchups (like last year's Hobart at Cornell playoff game), it's starting to look like Cornell's most likely opponent in the first round on the weekend of May 14-15 will be Syracuse, Army, or Albany. The key, in some ways, is the presence of only two New England teams -- one likely to be seeded (Massachusetts), another that should end up unseeded (Dartmouth). They're a good bet to play each other in the first round.[/Q]
I think Hillel's right.  I'm guessing a Syracuse or Army rematch, and I hope at Schoellkopf.  

Read on the LaxPower Forum that Tierney's on the NCAA committee this year.  He should have a pretty fair appreciation of what Cornell can do--wouldn't you think?[/q]I am assuming that the reason an Albany matchup is unlikely is that you assume that the Great Danes will be sent to play a higher seeded team. Correct?

I don't recall my two colleges ever playing each other in anything (though I assume it has happened).

[Hillel Hoffmann]

[Q]ugarte Wrote: I am assuming that the reason an Albany matchup is unlikely is that you assume that the Great Danes will be sent to play a higher seeded team. Correct? ... I don't recall my two colleges ever playing each other in anything (though I assume it has happened).[/q]
The Danes' early win over Massachusetts, a team that's currently in the top 10 in the RPI, is a valuable chip. That makes Albany a pretty good candidate for an at-large bid -- and, of course, they could still win their conference's AQ (they're leading Binghamton in the AE semi at the moment). However, there is little chance that the Danes could earn a seed (1-8) and thus a home game in the NCAA tournament.

The eight remaining unseeded teams in the tournament field will be sent to play seeded teams based primarily on proximity. The NCAA wants to reduce travel time and increase crowds. The selection committee often breaks with this directive and sends unseeded teams on long trips -- but usually only to send a wimpy AQ team (like the Metro Atlantic winner) to play a very high seed, or when there are far-flung teams (like Denver or Duke) for whom it's hard to find a suitable geographic match.

Cornell is more likely to play Army or Syracuse, but I wouldn't be shocked to see the Danes in Ithaca, particularly if the selection committee gives disproportionate weight to wins over RPI top 10 teams. That would put Albany right up there with Delaware and Bucknell and the like ... and perhaps keep them from being classified as cannon fodder for Virginia or some such.

And you're right, Albany has never played Cornell in lacrosse. The program just hasn't been around that long.

[ugarte]

[Q]Hillel Hoffmann Wrote:And you're right, Albany has never played Cornell in lacrosse. The program just hasn't been around that long.[/q]I actually googled this one myself and found a women's volleyball match. Cornell played in a tournament that SUNYA hosted.