Cornell RS Worst Case Scenario Finish

[Give My Regards]

[Q]Beeeej Wrote:

 For context:  This was back when there were only four conferences, each with two auto-bids to a twelve-team NCAA tourney - and the RS champ got one of the auto-bids.
[/q]

Jeez, don't make it worse than it was!  The RS champ auto-bid didn't start until the Colorado College fiasco in 1994, when they finished first but choked in the playoffs against the 10th-place team and wound up out of the NCAAs.  Funny how nobody cared when Harvard did exactly the same thing in 1992, bwahahahaha.

[Beeeej]

What do you expect from me, Bill, absolute accuracy?  :-D

Beeeej

[Will]

More stupid questions from the guy who is too lazy to do the math himself: What would be required for Cornell to clinch a 1st place finish?  2nd place finish or better?

[KeithK]

Are you too lazy to click?  

http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2005/ecac.nutshell:-)

[Dpperk29]

from what I can see, and using my limited mathematical skills, we need to score 4 points to clinch second, and 5 to clinch a tie for first with harvard. however, it would be easier to just win out, then no math is required

[billhoward]

Cornell leads with 30 ECAC points and four games remaining so it can amass 38 points (2 points for a win, 1 for a tie).

Harvard is second (based on wining pct, third based on points) with 25 and five games remaining so it can reach 35 points. If Cornell wins 3 of 4 games (or wins 2 and ties 2), that's enough for Cornell to control its destiny.

Colgate is third with 26 points and eight games remaining. It can get to 34 points. Two Cornell wins and a tie takes care of Colgate.

Dartmouth and Vermont have 22 points and could get to 30 with their four remaining games.

In the Ivies, Cornell has two losses to Harvard's one loss (2-0 to us) and one tie (2-2 vs. Brown), and Harvard has two Ivy games remaining. (Cornell's done.) A Harvard win and tie, ties Cornell, and two wins beats Cornell for the Ivy title. [edit adding:] It plays Brown next Tuesday 2/22 then at Dartmouth Friday 2/25.

[KeithK]

Four points clinches 2nd, knocking off Colgate who we win all tiebreakers with (I'll take Whelan's word on this).  Five points clinches a tie with Harvard.  We split the H2H with HU, so the tiebreaker goes to Record vs. Top4.  Since we would be a top 4 team, this equates to record vs. the other two teams in the top 4.  If Colgate finishes Top 4 then we're guaranteed to win the HU tiebreaker, since we beat them in record vs. Colgate 3 pts. to 0 and there isn't any other team that Harvard could have a +3 or +4 advantage over us.  If Colgate isn't Top4, then we can lose the tiebreaker if Dartmouth and Vermont are Top4 and Harvard wins at least one of there remaining games against them (likely in a tie scenario).  Or Dartmouth/Brown if Harvard wins both of those games.  We can't lose a Top4 comparison if it's Vermont/Brown, but we could tie.  Several scenarios lead to a record vs. Top8 comparison.  Here it depends on how things play out, since we play the current 7-10 yet this season and the very fact of a tie implies we've lost at least 3 points against these teams.  At least we know that we definitely will win the H2H goal differential comparison with Harvard if it got that far.

We cannot clinch the RS title this weekend without help.

[KeithK]

Cornell has already clinched tiebreakers against Dartmouth and Vermont in all possible scenarios, so it doesn't matter that they can get to 30 points also (in the event we lose 4 straight).  We also win the Colgate tiebreaker on H2H, whether two way or any combination up to a five way tie (Cr, HU, Col, DC, Vt).  So two wins eliminates them.  It's only the Harvard comparison where tiebreakers are uncertain and we need the full six points to outpace them for sure.

[Tub(a)]

[Q]KeithK Wrote:

 Cornell has already clinched tiebreakers against Dartmouth and Vermont in all possible scenarios, so it doesn't matter that they can get to 30 points also (in the event we lose 4 straight).  We also win the Colgate tiebreaker on H2H, whether two way or any combination up to a five way tie (Cr, HU, Col, DC, Vt).  So two wins eliminates them.  It's only the Harvard comparison where tiebreakers are uncertain and we need the full six points to outpace them for sure.[/q]

So a Cornell sweep and one Harvard loss = regular season title?

[Josh '99]

So it seems.  It'd be nice if the Harvard loss came against Brown next week.  Then we would clinch two titles via Harvard losing.  I like it when Harvard loses and it means good things for us.  :-D

[billhoward]

The proper timing for a Harvard loss is against Brown (it's at Harvard in front of their intensely loyal fans) or up at Dartmouth. I'd pick Dartmouth, though it would be nice if we weren't in suspense until the final game of the Ivy season.

There'll be a gametracker for Brown (plus the delightful WHRB announcers) next Tuesday keeping us posted.