Ariz St

[Dafatone]

I've always been a KRACH proponent as a better and fairer way (better because it is fairer).
ASU is #16 in KRACH.  Cornell is #9.

Interestingly, those are basically the biggest differences in KRACH to PWR this year.  It's rare there's that big a difference anymore.

KRACH is better, but it's usually not that big a deal.

I will say this -- Pairwise is taking into account home/road weighting now ... and KRACH is not. ASU has to play a lot of games on the road. That could account for some difference. Hard to say without pulling that weighting out of PW, or putting it into KRACH (which jtw has done before, but I don't have the script at the moment)

Interestingly, pairwise weights road wins and home losses more than home wins and road losses.  ASU is 12-2 at home and 9-9 on the road. This means they're 12-9 in lightly weighted games and 9-2 in heavily weighted games.

On the other hand, we're 10-2 in lightly weighted games and 7-5 in heavily weighted games. We also have four road ties and a neutral loss.

I guess the lesson is that if you're going to win most of your games, play on the road a lot.

To uh reply to myself, one fascinating thing (if you're a bored nerd) is that we would've been better off going 2-2 in our four road ties than 0-0-4.

On the other hand, you're better off tying at home than going .500.

[Jim Hyla]

They also swept Colorado College, Michigan State and Boston College. And while those teams are basically "average" this year - that is still pretty good. And between that, and sweeping through the bottom teams they played, they did their job. It's not an easy feat to never lose to bottom teams (see Cornell vs. Colgate, RPI, Michigan State, etc...)

Body of work.

Body of work:

so zero REGULATION wins vs any of the top 20 PWR

2-9-1

That probably makes a good WCHA team, not a top 10 team.

Well REGULATION wins are irrelevant to Pairwise or KRACH - so that would have no bearing on this conversation.

Fact of the matter is, their record is no better or worse than any other team in that position - and there's nothing to be learned about scheduling opponents or "gaming the system" based on what Arizona State has done.

Maybe I should have posted more of upprdeck's initial post.

"they got swept by #7 OSU
they got swept by #12 Cornell
they got swept by #20 Minn

lost and OT win vs #16 PSU
lost and OT win vs #13 Harvard

loss to #9 clarkson
OT tie to #4 Minn st

so zero REGULATION wins vs any of the top 20 PWR

2-9-1"

It's not zero regulation wins that stands out, but 2 wins (both OT) against top 20 teams versus 9 losses and a tie.

As I said, that's not a top 10 team.

Any team playing in a league, with that kind of record, would not be sitting on a number 2 seed.

This time KRACH is correct and PWR has a major flaw.

[ursusminor]

If a game against PSU had gone the other way: https://blog.collegehockeyranked.com/2019/03/05/which-games-this-season-had-the-most-impact-on-pwr/

#8 Arizona St — Could be #14 (6 spots lower, and firmly on the NCAA tournament bubble with no additional games to play) if the November 3 win over Penn St, 4-3, had instead gone the other way

also

#8 Arizona St — Could be #11 (3 spots lower and much closer to the bubble) if Massachusetts had instead prevailed in their 1-3 loss to Ohio State on October 20

[jtwcornell91]

I'm not following as closely these days as I was in the past, but their situation seems like Niagara circa 2000: RPI (which is basically responsible for their pairwise) is probably overrating ASU's performance vs schedule, but not in such an obvious way that the NCAA will override it like they did for the old MAAC when they first went D1.

[adamw]

I'm not following as closely these days as I was in the past, but their situation seems like Niagara circa 2000: RPI (which is basically responsible for their pairwise) is probably overrating ASU's performance vs schedule, but not in such an obvious way that the NCAA will override it like they did for the old MAAC when they first went D1.

Arizona State's SOS is pretty decent, per KRACH. There's no chance any change will be made.

[Dafatone]

Another thing to consider is that while ASU is 8th, they're only as far ahead of us at 12th in RPI as we are ahead of 13th.

[Swampy]

Not being in a league, it looks as if ASU has finished its RS and won't play again until the NC$$'s, if at all.

Meanwhile, we await the winner between Onion & Toothpaste, who stand 19 & 47 in the pairwise. I'm not sure what beating either one would do to our pairwise, and CHN's Customization feature is not much help. But I did go back and changed the 01/26/2019 OT loss to Toothpaste into a win, and doing so brings us up to #8 in the pairwise, just above ASU at #9.

So maybe a sweep in the second round gets us off the bubble once and for all.

[upprdeck]

Prov and PSU and ND and bowling green and northeastern losing is a good place to start

lots of teams chasing us that have to play

[Trotsky]

Meanwhile, we await the winner between Onion & Toothpaste, who stand 19 & 47 in the pairwise. I'm not sure what beating either one would do to our pairwise

We aren't necessarily playing the winner of Union-Colgate.

There used to be a nice calculation of the odds of each possible next round opponent -- I thought it was on John's stuff but can't find it now.  It doesn't appear to be on playoffstatus.com.

[gjp84]

There's a simulation-based projection of who we'd play in the ECAC Projected Standings thread on USCHO.

53% Union, 20% Brown, 18% Princeton and the rest Colgate or RPI.

https://board.uscho.com/showthread.php?135097-ECAC-Projected-Standings-2018-19/page2

[Trotsky]

There's a simulation-based projection of who we'd play in the ECAC Projected Standings thread on USCHO.

53% Union, 20% Brown, 18% Princeton and the rest Colgate or RPI.

https://board.uscho.com/showthread.php?135097-ECAC-Projected-Standings-2018-19/page2

Thank you.

[Jim Hyla]

As conference playoffs continue, are we seeing the continual dropping of ASU's PWR?

[adamw]

As conference playoffs continue, are we seeing the continual dropping of ASU's PWR?

I think we more or less expected that - though I think they have a firewall around 12. Which is why they're basically a "lock"

[Jim Hyla]

As conference playoffs continue, are we seeing the continual dropping of ASU's PWR?

I think we more or less expected that - though I think they have a firewall around 12. Which is why they're basically a "lock"

I can conceive of CU,Harvard and W Michigan getting ahead. But of course I haven't tried to work it out.