[sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by Dpperk29
[sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: Dpperk29 (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: February 05, 2006 05:47PM
so who does everyone think will win?
I think it will be BU vs. BC in the final, with BU winning
I think it will be BU vs. BC in the final, with BU winning
___________________________
"That damn bell at Clarkson." -Ken Dryden in reference to his hatred for the Clarkson Bell.
"That damn bell at Clarkson." -Ken Dryden in reference to his hatred for the Clarkson Bell.
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: Kyle Rose (---.krose.org)
Date: February 05, 2006 05:50PM
Should I be <shudder> rooting for Harvard in this one?
Kyle
Kyle
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: nyc94 (---.cable.mindspring.com)
Date: February 05, 2006 05:51PM
Dpperk29
I think it will be BU vs. BC in the final, with BU winning
That's the choice of 34% of USCHO poll respondants.
31% say BC over BU.
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: Al DeFlorio (---.hsd1.ma.comcast.net)
Date: February 05, 2006 06:10PM
You can't mean more than one-third of the respondents think H or N are gonna win?nyc94Dpperk29
I think it will be BU vs. BC in the final, with BU winning
That's the choice of 34% of USCHO poll respondants.
31% say BC over BU.
___________________________
Al DeFlorio '65
Al DeFlorio '65
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: nr53 (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: February 05, 2006 06:15PM
only 8% say H is gonna win, and 5% for N. The other 20 some comes from other variations to either BC or BU winning
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: nyc94 (---.cable.mindspring.com)
Date: February 05, 2006 06:18PM
Al DeFlorio
You can't mean more than one-third of the respondents think H or N are gonna win?
Shocking but only 8% say Harvard will win. 5% for Northeastern. 37% for BU. 44% for BC. 8% couldn't even make a guess. And 2% of rounding error.
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: DeltaOne81 (---.mtholyoke.edu)
Date: February 05, 2006 08:28PM
Dpperk29
so who does everyone think will win?
I think it will be BU vs. BC in the final, with BU winning
Wow, what an edgy prediction. Don't go doing anything crazy like predicting that the Red Sox and Yankees will battle for the AL East this year, with the Yankees winning in the last week
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: Killer (---.c3-0.nat-ubr6.sbo-nat.ma.cable.rcn.com)
Date: February 05, 2006 10:32PM
DeltaOne81
Wow, what an edgy prediction. Don't go doing anything crazy like predicting that the Red Sox and Yankees will battle for the AL East this year, with the Yankees winning in the last week
Actually, that sounds like a bit of an edgy prediction. We can come back to this in about 7 months, but I doubt the Sox will even be contending for the wild card by the last week of the season.
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: Dpperk29 (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: February 05, 2006 10:41PM
they will have clinched it already probably
___________________________
"That damn bell at Clarkson." -Ken Dryden in reference to his hatred for the Clarkson Bell.
"That damn bell at Clarkson." -Ken Dryden in reference to his hatred for the Clarkson Bell.
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: BCrespi (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: February 06, 2006 01:11AM
And watch those retooled Blue Jays. If things click for them, they could definitely be in the hunt. That said, I'm just another Yankee fan who can't wait for Spring Training.
___________________________
Brian Crespi '06
Brian Crespi '06
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: Robb (---.losaca.adelphia.net)
Date: February 06, 2006 01:20AM
Not to put a damper on things with boring numbers, but here's what KRACH has to say about the probabilities of various outcomes. I'm HTML illiterate, so bear with me...
Definitely not looking too good for NU, there. Harvard should finish 2nd or 3rd - probably another consy win for them. I would have thought that BC would have had a higher chance of winning than 56%, but KRACH says that they only have a 57% chance of beating BU, so it makes sense.
We really need Harvard to beat BU (42% chance), and it would be really nice if they'd turn around and beat BC in the championship. Surprisingly, that should actually happen 13% of the time (taking into account Harvard over BU, BC over NU, and Harvard over BC), so keep your fingers crossed...
1 2 3 4 probability BC BU H NU 27.35% BC H BU NU 23.00% BU BC H NU 20.63% H BC BU NU 12.33% BC BU NU H 3.71% BU BC NU H 2.80% BU NU BC H 2.35% BC H NU BU 2.22% H NU BC BU 1.41% BU NU H BC 1.26% H BC NU BU 1.19% H NU BU BC 1.07% NU BU BC H 0.23% NU H BC BU 0.19% NU H BU BC 0.14% NU BU H BC 0.12%Cross-summing the possibilities, here's the probability that a team will finish in a given position:
1 2 3 4 BC 56.28% 36.94% 4.18% 2.59% BU 27.04% 31.41% 36.54% 5.01% H 16.00% 25.55% 49.36% 9.09% NU 0.68% 6.09% 9.91% 83.31%
Definitely not looking too good for NU, there. Harvard should finish 2nd or 3rd - probably another consy win for them. I would have thought that BC would have had a higher chance of winning than 56%, but KRACH says that they only have a 57% chance of beating BU, so it makes sense.
We really need Harvard to beat BU (42% chance), and it would be really nice if they'd turn around and beat BC in the championship. Surprisingly, that should actually happen 13% of the time (taking into account Harvard over BU, BC over NU, and Harvard over BC), so keep your fingers crossed...
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 02/06/2006 01:22AM by Robb.
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: KeithK (---.external.lmco.com)
Date: February 06, 2006 01:36PM
Regardless of what KRACH says this is still the BU invitational. So they have to be semi-favorites - they always seem to win. When is the last time Harvard actually made the final, let alone won it all?
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: jkahn (216.146.73.---)
Date: February 06, 2006 02:08PM
1998KeithK
When is the last time Harvard actually made the final...?
___________________________
Jeff Kahn '70 '72
Jeff Kahn '70 '72
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: jbeaber1998 (---.MCB.Berkeley.EDU)
Date: February 06, 2006 02:52PM
Are there going to be free audio broadcasts of the games?
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: jy3 (---.buff.east.verizon.net)
Date: February 06, 2006 03:53PM
or are these games on tv?
___________________________
LGR!!!!!!!!!!
jy3 '00
LGR!!!!!!!!!!
jy3 '00
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: Trotsky (---.raytheon.com)
Date: February 06, 2006 03:55PM
It would be nice if one of our resident experts told us who to root for, pairwise-wise.
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: Killer (---.fidelity.com)
Date: February 06, 2006 03:55PM
jy3
or are these games on tv?
If you get NESN, they're on. Don't know if anyone else carries the games.
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: Scersk '97 (---.dsl.chcgil.ameritech.net)
Date: February 06, 2006 04:28PM
Trotsky
It would be nice if one of our resident experts told us who to root for, pairwise-wise.
Go use the script yourself, lazy boy, if you're concerned with the actual numbers, but losses by Harvard and Northeastern kick us out of the top 4.
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: Trotsky (---.raytheon.com)
Date: February 06, 2006 04:38PM
"The scripts" don't really help, active boy, because the season doesn't end when the Beanpot ends. What may help us this week isn't necessarily what's good in the long run.Scersk '97Trotsky
It would be nice if one of our resident experts told us who to root for, pairwise-wise.
Go use the script yourself, lazy boy, if you're concerned with the actual numbers, but losses by Harvard and Northeastern kick us out of the top 4.
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: RichH (---.cttel.net)
Date: February 06, 2006 05:47PM
Trotsky"The scripts" don't really help, active boy, because the season doesn't end when the Beanpot ends. What may help us this week isn't necessarily what's good in the long run.Scersk '97Trotsky
It would be nice if one of our resident experts told us who to root for, pairwise-wise.
Go use the script yourself, lazy boy, if you're concerned with the actual numbers, but losses by Harvard and Northeastern kick us out of the top 4.
So you just asked our resident experts to predict the future, then?
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: KeithK (---.external.lmco.com)
Date: February 06, 2006 05:50PM
Simple. Root for BU and BC to lose because they're good teams that we haven't played. Root for Harvard and NU to win because they're not and we play them. Root for HU doubly because they're ECAC.
But I'm sure you knew that. No intricate analysis needed.
But I'm sure you knew that. No intricate analysis needed.
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: Trotsky (---.raytheon.com)
Date: February 06, 2006 05:54PM
I expect nothing less from a Cornell graduate.RichH
So you just asked our resident experts to predict the future, then?
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: Trotsky (---.raytheon.com)
Date: February 06, 2006 05:55PM
OK, cool. In a system where a Robert Morris loss to American International can flip-flop BC and Denver, I wanted to be sure.KeithK
Simple. Root for BU and BC to lose because they're good teams that we haven't played. Root for Harvard and NU to win because they're not and we play them. Root for HU doubly because they're ECAC.
But I'm sure you knew that. No intricate analysis needed.
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: KeithK (---.external.lmco.com)
Date: February 06, 2006 06:06PM
I don't swear that NU beating BC in an amazing upset couldn't set off a chain of events causing Cornell to plummet to 33rd in the PWR. But I suspect it's damn unlikely and not worth the time to try to figure it out. Also unlikely to be permanent, because any change that is that unusual is likely enough to flip back before all is said and done. When the weelend of 3/17-18 rolls around it makes sense to consider all sorts of arcane possibilities because the total number of combinations becomes manageable.
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: RichH (---.cttel.net)
Date: February 06, 2006 06:15PM
Excellent point. We're moving this to Vegas and starting the most lucrative sports book ever, then.TrotskyI expect nothing less from a Cornell graduate.RichH
So you just asked our resident experts to predict the future, then?
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: KeithK (---.external.lmco.com)
Date: February 06, 2006 06:16PM
Predicting the future is easy. Getting it right, not so much.RichHExcellent point. We're moving this to Vegas and starting the most lucrative sports book ever, then.TrotskyI expect nothing less from a Cornell graduate.RichH
So you just asked our resident experts to predict the future, then?
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: jbeaber1998 (---.MCB.Berkeley.EDU)
Date: February 06, 2006 06:27PM
And the way Northeastern is playing, they ain't helpin' us...
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: Scersk '97 (---.dsl.chcgil.ameritech.net)
Date: February 06, 2006 10:55PM
Trotsky
"The scripts" don't really help, active boy, because the season doesn't end when the Beanpot ends. What may help us this week isn't necessarily what's good in the long run.
Well, that's the point, isn't it? What does it matter now when the calculations are so complex that it boggles the mind?
Really, it comes down to faith/philosophy: would you rather we effect change in our potential pairwise status or let BC/BU do it for us? If you think we can beat Harvard in a couple of weeks, then there can be no question that we want Harvard to win, increasing our strength of schedule, etc. (There's practically no chance for Harvard to fall out of being a TUC and very little chance of them overtaking us in common opponents, for starters.) If you think we may have eventual trouble with the Harvard comparison, then you want BU to beat them and for them to stay weak.
If, however, you were originally being snarky in your first message, implying that the PWR, at this point of the year, is too unstable to really care about, then, hey, I'm with you. People that are concerned about every nitty gritty of every comparison at this point in the year obviously don't really get the system.
Or, in other words, what KeithK and Rich said.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/06/2006 10:59PM by Scersk '97.
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: Robb (---.losaca.adelphia.net)
Date: February 06, 2006 11:07PM
I was going to resent that, but then I wondered what you meant by "concerned." In my mind, I'm not concerned about it - sad as it may be, messing around with this stuff is fun for me, so it's purely for my own enjoyment... Plus I'm living in the desert and there's certainly nothing better to do!Scersk '97
People that are concerned about every nitty gritty of every comparison at this point in the year obviously don't really get the system.
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: Scersk '97 (---.dsl.chcgil.ameritech.net)
Date: February 06, 2006 11:08PM
Robb
I was going to resent that, but then I wondered what you meant by "concerned." In my mind, I'm not concerned about it - sad as it may be, messing around with this stuff is fun for me, so it's purely for my own enjoyment... Plus I'm living in the desert and there's certainly nothing better to do!
You know me better than myself. Exactly.
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: RichH (---.hsd1.ct.comcast.net)
Date: February 06, 2006 11:25PM
krose
Should I be <shudder> rooting for Harvard in this one?
Kyle
Whenever H can help us, they never come through. Never. I swore off rooting for them in non-conference games several years ago for that reason.
Re: [sort of OT] Beanpot predictions
Posted by: KeithK (---.dsl.snfc21.pacbell.net)
Date: February 06, 2006 11:51PM
[q]Whenever H can help us, they never come through. Never. I swore off rooting for them in non-conference games several years ago for that reason.[/q]Well, by the time we're worrying about how Harvard can help us it's the Beanpot. And Harvard always loses there.
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