Bracketology Sunday
Posted by Beeeej
Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Beeeej (---.nyc.rr.com)
Date: March 13, 2005 12:05PM
Moy did a brand-new bracketology with last night's games in the mix, and we still get sent to Minneapolis, but with a very interesting Maine vs. Cornell and Dartmouth vs. Minnesota bracket - and four ECACHL teams in the tourney to one CCHA team, which is pretty fabulous.
Frankly, I'd much rather be in Amherst or Worcester, but I really don't think a weekend in Minnesota would be the worst thing. At the very least, I'm pretty sure I'd have a place to stay for free and some local company at the games.
Beeeej
Frankly, I'd much rather be in Amherst or Worcester, but I really don't think a weekend in Minnesota would be the worst thing. At the very least, I'm pretty sure I'd have a place to stay for free and some local company at the games.
Beeeej
___________________________
Beeeej, Esq.
"Cornell isn't an organization. It's a loose affiliation of independent fiefdoms united by a common hockey team."
- Steve Worona
Beeeej, Esq.
"Cornell isn't an organization. It's a loose affiliation of independent fiefdoms united by a common hockey team."
- Steve Worona
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Puck Icer (69.84.115.---)
Date: March 13, 2005 12:14PM
If we get sent to Minnesota, does that mean playing on a big sheet?
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Beeeej (---.nyc.rr.com)
Date: March 13, 2005 12:20PM
Yes, 200x100. Lynah is 200x85, as is Alfond, Maine's home ice; Dartmouth's Thompson is 200x90. So there would be a potential advantage for Minnesota in addition to the usual "home ice" advantages.
Beeeej
Beeeej
___________________________
Beeeej, Esq.
"Cornell isn't an organization. It's a loose affiliation of independent fiefdoms united by a common hockey team."
- Steve Worona
Beeeej, Esq.
"Cornell isn't an organization. It's a loose affiliation of independent fiefdoms united by a common hockey team."
- Steve Worona
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Pace (---.library.cornell.edu)
Date: March 13, 2005 01:15PM
Isn't there also an advantage to being used to smaller ice? I would imagine it makes the game a lot quicker. One's passes and shots have to be that little bit more accurate when the ice is comparatively more crowded.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Beeeej (---.nyc.rr.com)
Date: March 13, 2005 01:18PM
Possibly, but the point being raised here is that with wider ice, Cornell's "shut down the skating lanes" style might not be as effective. And frankly, our passes and our shots have never exactly been our strongest suit, so I'm not sure how wider ice would help on that count. But then we did just fine in Lake Placid many times, so you never know.
Beeeej
Beeeej
___________________________
Beeeej, Esq.
"Cornell isn't an organization. It's a loose affiliation of independent fiefdoms united by a common hockey team."
- Steve Worona
Beeeej, Esq.
"Cornell isn't an organization. It's a loose affiliation of independent fiefdoms united by a common hockey team."
- Steve Worona
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: March 13, 2005 01:50PM
Sunday Morning's Brackets Last Week's Brackets
Minneapolis:
Dartmouth vs. Minnesota Quinnipiac vs. Colorado College
Maine vs. Cornell Ohio State vs. Minnesota
Grand Rapids:
Bemidji State vs. Colorado College Bemidji State vs. Denver
North Dakota vs. Michigan Dartmouth vs. North Dakota
Amherst:
Colgate vs. Denver New Hampshire vs. Michigan
New Hampshire vs. Harvard Wisconsin vs. Cornell
Worcester:
Quinnipiac vs. Boston College Northern Michigan vs. Boston College
Wisconsin vs. Boston University Boston University vs. Harvard
Well, for those who worry, I can't help you.
![**]](http://elf.elynah.com/smileys/admin.gif "**]")
But for the rest of us, just look at the changes from last week. Who knows what might happen in another week. We just have to keep winning and I suspect we might turn out OK. But then, who am I to say.
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: KenP (---.abrfc.noaa.gov)
Date: March 13, 2005 02:14PM
If Cornell wins the ECAC tourney and Minnesota does not win the WCHA, we flip the TUC comparison. Pretty sure we'd keep the RPI comparison, which means we win the comparison and move to a #1 seed.
If Cornell loses either game, we are not a #1 seed. Then again, if we don't win the ECAC's, I don't think we would deserve it either.
If Cornell loses either game, we are not a #1 seed. Then again, if we don't win the ECAC's, I don't think we would deserve it either.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: calgARI '07 (128.84.198.---)
Date: March 13, 2005 02:22PM
Of course if Cornell loses either game, they would likely drop from fifth meaning they would hopefully still avoid Minneapolis.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Ken '70 (---.ne.client2.attbi.com)
Date: March 13, 2005 02:56PM
That's not true. Even if we win out, as long as MN wins one of two next weekend, doesn't matter which one, they keep the TUC and the overall comparison, assuming AA loses tonight. If AA wins tonight then Cornell can flip the MN comparison by winning out even if MN wins once next week.
As long as MI doesn't win out, then even a Cornell win and loss next week will flip the MN comparison if AA wins tonight and MN loses both next weekend (since they'll be playing CC and DU, that's entirely possible).
But Cornell can get a #1 seed without flipping MN, but they do have to win out.
1) If DU doesn't win out that comparison flips to Cornell. There's then a 3 way tie for PWR #3 which Cornell wins by the RPI tie breaker, DU is 4th and is visiting MN's (#5) Regional in Minneapolis.
2) If BU stays alive tonight, and MN loses at least once next week:
a) If BU wins out at the Fleet, or
b) UNH beats BU in their semi then wins the HE Championship
the HE Champion (BU or UNH) would flip it's comparison with MN based on RPI. By virtue of BC having lost this would flip the BC comparison with Cornell (change in RPI) and Cornell would have one more comparison win than MN, even though MN won the H2H with Cornell.
As long as MI doesn't win out, then even a Cornell win and loss next week will flip the MN comparison if AA wins tonight and MN loses both next weekend (since they'll be playing CC and DU, that's entirely possible).
But Cornell can get a #1 seed without flipping MN, but they do have to win out.
1) If DU doesn't win out that comparison flips to Cornell. There's then a 3 way tie for PWR #3 which Cornell wins by the RPI tie breaker, DU is 4th and is visiting MN's (#5) Regional in Minneapolis.
2) If BU stays alive tonight, and MN loses at least once next week:
a) If BU wins out at the Fleet, or
b) UNH beats BU in their semi then wins the HE Championship
the HE Champion (BU or UNH) would flip it's comparison with MN based on RPI. By virtue of BC having lost this would flip the BC comparison with Cornell (change in RPI) and Cornell would have one more comparison win than MN, even though MN won the H2H with Cornell.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Ken '70 (---.ne.client2.attbi.com)
Date: March 13, 2005 03:04PM
[Q]Ken '70 Wrote:
As long as MI doesn't win out, then even a Cornell win and loss next week will flip the MN comparison if AA wins tonight and MN loses both next weekend (since they'll be playing CC and DU, that's entirely possible).
[/q]
That should have read "...and possibly DU..."
As long as MI doesn't win out, then even a Cornell win and loss next week will flip the MN comparison if AA wins tonight and MN loses both next weekend (since they'll be playing CC and DU, that's entirely possible).
[/q]
That should have read "...and possibly DU..."
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: calgARI '07 (128.84.198.---)
Date: March 13, 2005 03:24PM
Wow. You REALLY know the PWR inside and out. So overall, what would say the chances of Cornell cracking the top four are based on them winning both games and then based on them splitting?
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (---.mis.prserv.net)
Date: March 13, 2005 03:43PM
Ari:
I havent done all the math, but my general impression is if we don't win out, one of the four teams ahead of us will have to lose TWO games in their tourney for us to get a one seed, and I'm not sure it even happens then, cause Michigan might sneak in. The most likely to do that, IMO, are Minny or BC.
I havent done all the math, but my general impression is if we don't win out, one of the four teams ahead of us will have to lose TWO games in their tourney for us to get a one seed, and I'm not sure it even happens then, cause Michigan might sneak in. The most likely to do that, IMO, are Minny or BC.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: calgARI '07 (---.library.cornell.edu)
Date: March 13, 2005 03:51PM
Is it safe to say that if Cornell wins both games next weekend, they will have a very good shot at a top four finish in the PWR?
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: jtwcornell91 (---.no.no.cox.net)
Date: March 13, 2005 04:03PM
This is gonna get a whole lot easier in about 8 hours...
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: March 13, 2005 05:23PM
[Q]jtwcornell91 Wrote: This is gonna get a whole lot easier in about 8 hours...[/q]And even easier still in about 8 days
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: A-19 (---.ne.client2.attbi.com)
Date: March 13, 2005 05:27PM
[Q]jtwcornell91 Wrote:
This is gonna get a whole lot easier in about 8 hours...[/q]
john, why in 8 hours? the game left for sunday (ignoring the vt/dc game which is irrelevant to PWR for moving up) really don't impact the teams above us that much.
i also noticed that brown is hanging on to being a TUC by a thread. being as they are done for the season, what are the odds they drop from being a tuc? (due to opponent's winning % etc)
-mike
This is gonna get a whole lot easier in about 8 hours...[/q]
john, why in 8 hours? the game left for sunday (ignoring the vt/dc game which is irrelevant to PWR for moving up) really don't impact the teams above us that much.
i also noticed that brown is hanging on to being a TUC by a thread. being as they are done for the season, what are the odds they drop from being a tuc? (due to opponent's winning % etc)
-mike
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (---.mis.prserv.net)
Date: March 13, 2005 06:22PM
Actually, Minnesota has two losses and a tie against UAA. If UAA wins tonight, they probably stay a TUC, and that's a hit to Minny which could help us flip them.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: jtwcornell91 (---.no.no.cox.net)
Date: March 13, 2005 06:24PM
[Q]A-19 Wrote:
jtwcornell91 Wrote:
This is gonna get a whole lot easier in about 8 hours...[/Q]
john, why in 8 hours? the game left for sunday (ignoring the vt/dc game which is irrelevant to PWR for moving up) really don't impact the teams above us that much.
[/q]
Today's results will nail down the brackets for next weekend's conference tournaments, which is the prerequisite for a certain tool to appear on USCHO...
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (---.mis.prserv.net)
Date: March 13, 2005 06:27PM
I think there are plenty of overly certain tools on USCHO most of the time. Why is 8 hours from now all that different? 
JH
JH
Sunday Rooting Guide
Posted by: Ken '70 (---.ne.client2.attbi.com)
Date: March 13, 2005 07:51PM
Just root like hell for BU and AA. Huge games for Cornell's 1 seed chances. Dartmouth/VT is meaningless.
Re: Sunday Rooting Guide
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (---.mis.prserv.net)
Date: March 13, 2005 07:54PM
I understand UAA, but why is BU so big, Ken?
Re: Sunday Rooting Guide
Posted by: Ken '70 (---.ne.client2.attbi.com)
Date: March 13, 2005 08:10PM
Cornell has 2 paths to a #1 seed:
1) Flip the MN comparison so we both end up with the same number of wins but we take the tie-breaker based on the H2H.
2) Don't flip MN, but pick up two other comparison wins so we're 1 ahead of them. It's in this path that BU s so important.
If BU goes onto to the HE semis they play UNH. If UNH beats BU it flips the COP between UNH and MN to UNH. If UNH wins out (beats BC or ME in HE Final), and MN doesn't, that will also flip the UNH - MN RPI to UNH with UNH taking the comparison from MN. MN now down 1.
If BU wins out this will also flip the MN - BU comparison to BU (if MN doesn't win out) .MN still down 1.
Either of these two scenarios has meant BC has lost. If Cornell wins out, which it has to have almost any realistic chance, then Cornell flips the BC comparison to its favor. Cornell plus 1.
Cornell plus 1 + MN minus 1 = Cornell moves ahead of MN for a #1 seed.
1) Flip the MN comparison so we both end up with the same number of wins but we take the tie-breaker based on the H2H.
2) Don't flip MN, but pick up two other comparison wins so we're 1 ahead of them. It's in this path that BU s so important.
If BU goes onto to the HE semis they play UNH. If UNH beats BU it flips the COP between UNH and MN to UNH. If UNH wins out (beats BC or ME in HE Final), and MN doesn't, that will also flip the UNH - MN RPI to UNH with UNH taking the comparison from MN. MN now down 1.
If BU wins out this will also flip the MN - BU comparison to BU (if MN doesn't win out) .MN still down 1.
Either of these two scenarios has meant BC has lost. If Cornell wins out, which it has to have almost any realistic chance, then Cornell flips the BC comparison to its favor. Cornell plus 1.
Cornell plus 1 + MN minus 1 = Cornell moves ahead of MN for a #1 seed.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Scersk '97 (---.dsl.chcgil.ameritech.net)
Date: March 13, 2005 09:15PM
I said it in another thread [elf.elynah.com], and Ken '70 backed it up, but there are two things that matter in the upcoming weeks regarding the PWR:
1) MN loses the #1 seed.
2) We stay a #2 or move up.
Or you could reduce that to one thing:
1) Avoid Mariucci.
If MN drops to a #2 seed, we avoid them whether we're a #1 seed or not. (Please, let's not consider what it would take to drop us to a #3 or #4 seed.) There are teams other than us, as Ken has detailed, that are within striking distance of making that happen. If we end up as a #1 seed, which surely will only happen with an ECAC championship, then we're eating a helluva lot of "cake" with some nice "icing."
So, go UNH (ugh), go BU (on account of a personal connection, not too distasteful for me). Down with Minnesota!
1) MN loses the #1 seed.
2) We stay a #2 or move up.
Or you could reduce that to one thing:
1) Avoid Mariucci.
If MN drops to a #2 seed, we avoid them whether we're a #1 seed or not. (Please, let's not consider what it would take to drop us to a #3 or #4 seed.) There are teams other than us, as Ken has detailed, that are within striking distance of making that happen. If we end up as a #1 seed, which surely will only happen with an ECAC championship, then we're eating a helluva lot of "cake" with some nice "icing."
So, go UNH (ugh), go BU (on account of a personal connection, not too distasteful for me). Down with Minnesota!
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/13/2005 09:17PM by Scersk '97.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Pocket Scersk '03 (---.phil.east.verizon.net)
Date: March 13, 2005 09:19PM
[Q]Scersk '97 Wrote:
1) Avoid Mariucci.
If MN drops to a #2 seed, we avoid them whether we're a #1 seed or not. [/q]
Not if we flip with MN and we're the #4 overall with MN #5 overall. Then Cornell would just wear white on the huge ice in MN.
1) Avoid Mariucci.
If MN drops to a #2 seed, we avoid them whether we're a #1 seed or not. [/q]
Not if we flip with MN and we're the #4 overall with MN #5 overall. Then Cornell would just wear white on the huge ice in MN.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Tub(a) (---.resnet.cornell.edu)
Date: March 13, 2005 09:20PM
Doesn't 1 seed as close to home as possible override competitive equity?
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Scersk '97 (---.dsl.chcgil.ameritech.net)
Date: March 13, 2005 09:25PM
[Q]Pocket Scersk '03 Wrote:
Not if we flip with MN and we're the #4 overall with MN #5 overall. Then Cornell would just wear white on the huge ice in MN. [/q]
Oh Bizarro, how you will lead the kiddies wrong!
[Q]Tub(a) Wrote:
Doesn't 1 seed as close to home as possible override competitive equity?[/q]
Out of the mouths of babes...
Not if we flip with MN and we're the #4 overall with MN #5 overall. Then Cornell would just wear white on the huge ice in MN. [/q]
Oh Bizarro, how you will lead the kiddies wrong!
[Q]Tub(a) Wrote:
Doesn't 1 seed as close to home as possible override competitive equity?[/q]
Out of the mouths of babes...
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/13/2005 09:26PM by Scersk '97.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Pocket Scersk '03 (---.phil.east.verizon.net)
Date: March 13, 2005 09:35PM
[Q]Scersk '97 Wrote:
Pocket Scersk '03 Wrote:
Not if we flip with MN and we're the #4 overall with MN #5 overall. Then Cornell would just wear white on the huge ice in MN. [/Q]
Oh Bizarro, how you will lead the kiddies wrong!
Tub(a) Wrote:
Doesn't 1 seed as close to home as possible override competitive equity?[/Q]
Out of the mouths of babes...
Edited 1 times. Last edit at 03/13/05 09:26PM by Scersk '97.[/q]
Has that been tested though, Scott? If MN didn't have to play at home, it's be the Red and Gophers 1/2 in one of the eastern regionals. No argument there. But because MN can't move and because the committe has, "made a concerted effort in the two years the 16-team field has existed to maintain a strict bracket" (uscho's words) can you say that young Grant is in fact correct? I'd reason that the committee is so stuck on bracket integrity that they'd reward MN not only with home ice but also with the weakest 1 seed.
The 16 team field has only existed for two years. In both cases the one seeds were split east and west, but I don't think there was a situation where bracket integrity butted heads with the geographic placement of 1 seeds.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Scersk '97 (---.dsl.chcgil.ameritech.net)
Date: March 13, 2005 09:51PM
You are right, of course, Chris. There have been many threads discussing the as yet ill-defined behavior of the committee in a 16-team tournament. We don't exactly know what they'd do.
Yet, as JTW has stated most forcefully elsewhere, the next directive after placing host schools is for the committee to place #1 seeds closest to home in order. I think the likelihood of the committee shipping a #1 seed somewhere far from home to preserve competitive equity is low. What exactly is the reward for a #1 seed in this situation? Also the committee has to think about attendance. Supposedly, attendance creates the rationale for the rules regarding host teams and #1 seeds, assuming that host schools' and #1 seeds' fans will show up.
If we're a #1 seed, the only way we'll be shipped out west will be if two other Eastern teams are #1 seeds. At this point, that seems rather unlikely.
Yet, as JTW has stated most forcefully elsewhere, the next directive after placing host schools is for the committee to place #1 seeds closest to home in order. I think the likelihood of the committee shipping a #1 seed somewhere far from home to preserve competitive equity is low. What exactly is the reward for a #1 seed in this situation? Also the committee has to think about attendance. Supposedly, attendance creates the rationale for the rules regarding host teams and #1 seeds, assuming that host schools' and #1 seeds' fans will show up.
If we're a #1 seed, the only way we'll be shipped out west will be if two other Eastern teams are #1 seeds. At this point, that seems rather unlikely.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/13/2005 09:52PM by Scersk '97.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: ajec1 (---.resnet.cornell.edu)
Date: March 13, 2005 10:16PM
[Q]Pocket Scersk '03 Wrote:
Not if we flip with MN and we're the #4 overall with MN #5 overall. Then Cornell would just wear white on the huge ice in MN. [/q]
Wait, Cornell wearing white at Mariucci? Am I dreaming? That would be incredible (Even better if there were 10,000 fans in red!).
Not if we flip with MN and we're the #4 overall with MN #5 overall. Then Cornell would just wear white on the huge ice in MN. [/q]
Wait, Cornell wearing white at Mariucci? Am I dreaming? That would be incredible (Even better if there were 10,000 fans in red!).
___________________________
Jason E. '08
Minnesota-The State of Hockey
Jason E. '08
Minnesota-The State of Hockey
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Dart~Ben (66.240.10.---)
Date: March 13, 2005 11:40PM
FWIW, here's how Dartmouth backs into the NCAA tourny.
Bucky losing to NoDak would be big. Michigan winning the CCHA tourny is likewise a near must. Cornell or Harvard must win the ECAC tourny. NMU is likely out of the picture. Less certain on whether tOSU must lose twice or if they can win once and still leave Dartmouth in the hunt.
Bucky losing to NoDak would be big. Michigan winning the CCHA tourny is likewise a near must. Cornell or Harvard must win the ECAC tourny. NMU is likely out of the picture. Less certain on whether tOSU must lose twice or if they can win once and still leave Dartmouth in the hunt.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Scersk '97 (---.dsl.chcgil.ameritech.net)
Date: March 13, 2005 11:50PM
Even though it seems John, et al. will be debuting some tool (heh) on USCHO soon, I figured I'd post what I'm using for others convenience. Here are the finals from tonight and the rest of the schedule--I think, someone can double check--filled out with the higher KRACH teams winning:
Did I miss a conso?
20050313 Da 0 Vt 1 NC 20050313 AA 0 Wi 1 NC 20050313 FS 0 OS 1 NC 20050313 WM 0 NM 1 NC 20050313 AH 0 BS 1 NC 20050317 MS 1 NO 0 NC 20050317 Ak 0 NM 1 NC 20050317 ND 0 Wi 1 NC 20050318 Me 0 BC 1 NC 20050318 NH 1 BU 0 NC 20050318 Vt 0 Cr 1 NC 20050318 Cg 0 Ha 1 NC 20050318 MS 0 Mi 1 NC 20050318 NM 0 OS 1 NC 20050318 Wi 0 DU 1 NC 20050318 Mn 0 CC 1 NC 20050318 By 0 Qn 1 NC 20050318 HC 1 Mh 0 NC 20050319 NH 0 BC 1 NC 20050319 Ha 0 Cr 1 NC 20050319 Vt 0 Cg 1 NC 20050319 OS 0 Mi 1 NC 20050319 MS 0 NM 1 NC 20050319 CC 1 DU 0 NC 20050319 Wi 0 Mn 1 NC 20050319 HC 0 Qn 1 NC
Did I miss a conso?
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: jtwcornell91 (---.no.no.cox.net)
Date: March 14, 2005 12:21AM
[Q]Pocket Scersk '03 Wrote:
Has that been tested though, Scott? If MN didn't have to play at home, it's be the Red and Gophers 1/2 in one of the eastern regionals. No argument there. But because MN can't move and because the committe has, "made a concerted effort in the two years the 16-team field has existed to maintain a strict bracket" (uscho's words) can you say that young Grant is in fact correct? I'd reason that the committee is so stuck on bracket integrity that they'd reward MN not only with home ice but also with the weakest 1 seed.
The 16 team field has only existed for two years. In both cases the one seeds were split east and west, but I don't think there was a situation where bracket integrity butted heads with the geographic placement of 1 seeds. [/q]
RTFM: [www.ncaa.org]
Or if you only believe what USCHO tells you, read Jayson Moy's column from last week, where he puts the overall #1 and #5 in the same regional: [www.uscho.com]
For hockey, "bracket integrity" means having one 1-seed, one 2-seed, one 3-seed, and one 4-seed in each regional. Seeding the tournament 1-16 is not explicitly described in the handbook, but presumably falls under the heading of "competitive equity" which should not override the specific directives.
Has that been tested though, Scott? If MN didn't have to play at home, it's be the Red and Gophers 1/2 in one of the eastern regionals. No argument there. But because MN can't move and because the committe has, "made a concerted effort in the two years the 16-team field has existed to maintain a strict bracket" (uscho's words) can you say that young Grant is in fact correct? I'd reason that the committee is so stuck on bracket integrity that they'd reward MN not only with home ice but also with the weakest 1 seed.
The 16 team field has only existed for two years. In both cases the one seeds were split east and west, but I don't think there was a situation where bracket integrity butted heads with the geographic placement of 1 seeds. [/q]
RTFM: [www.ncaa.org]
Or if you only believe what USCHO tells you, read Jayson Moy's column from last week, where he puts the overall #1 and #5 in the same regional: [www.uscho.com]
For hockey, "bracket integrity" means having one 1-seed, one 2-seed, one 3-seed, and one 4-seed in each regional. Seeding the tournament 1-16 is not explicitly described in the handbook, but presumably falls under the heading of "competitive equity" which should not override the specific directives.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Scersk '97 (---.dsl.chcgil.ameritech.net)
Date: March 14, 2005 12:50AM
[Q]Dart~Ben Wrote:
FWIW, here's how Dartmouth backs into the NCAA tourny.
Bucky losing to NoDak would be big. Michigan winning the CCHA tourny is likewise a near must. Cornell or Harvard must win the ECAC tourny. NMU is likely out of the picture. Less certain on whether tOSU must lose twice or if they can win once and still leave Dartmouth in the hunt.[/q]
So, I changed what you suggested in my list above, and, well, Dartmouth won't back into the tourney like that. I'll tell you what would help, though: Holy Cross winning the AHA tournament.
Not to be cruel, but, boy, am I glad the very continuation of our season doesn't depend on something as seemingly insignificant as the AHA championship game.
Imagine that: you guys could end up having a beef with Quinnipiac before they even join the league. Lucky you. (Where's that St. Patrick's Day smiley?)
FWIW, here's how Dartmouth backs into the NCAA tourny.
Bucky losing to NoDak would be big. Michigan winning the CCHA tourny is likewise a near must. Cornell or Harvard must win the ECAC tourny. NMU is likely out of the picture. Less certain on whether tOSU must lose twice or if they can win once and still leave Dartmouth in the hunt.[/q]
So, I changed what you suggested in my list above, and, well, Dartmouth won't back into the tourney like that. I'll tell you what would help, though: Holy Cross winning the AHA tournament.
Not to be cruel, but, boy, am I glad the very continuation of our season doesn't depend on something as seemingly insignificant as the AHA championship game.
Imagine that: you guys could end up having a beef with Quinnipiac before they even join the league. Lucky you. (Where's that St. Patrick's Day smiley?)
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/14/2005 12:53AM by Scersk '97.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Avash (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: March 14, 2005 02:27AM
Playing around with the You are the Committee feature on USCHO, and using a .003/.002/.001 bonus, Cornell finishes second in the pairwise rankings if the following occurs:
***If this game went the other way, Cornell finishes 4th in the PWR. Also, in both cases, Colgate is the last team in. Dartmouth is the last team out.
Keeping the CCHA and AHA picks the same, Cornell also finishes in 2nd overall if Maine beats BU for the HE title and CC beats Wisconsin for the WCHA title (with Minnesota losing the consolation game).
If the higher seeds win every game in all conference tournaments, Cornell finishes 5th in the PWR.
Finally, this very reasonable set of results gives Cornell a #1 seed as the 3rd team overall in the PWR (BC, CC, Cornell, Denver, Minnesota):
CCHA Play-in #2: Northern Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks. CCHA Play-in #1: Nebraska-Omaha defeats Michigan State. CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Northern Michigan. CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Nebraska-Omaha. CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Ohio State. CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Nebraska-Omaha. ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Colgate. ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont. ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Harvard. ECAC Consolation game: Colgate defeats Vermont. Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats New Hampshire. Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Maine. Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Boston College. WCHA Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota. WCHA Semifinal #2: Colorado College defeats Minnesota. WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats Wisconsin. WCHA Championship game: Colorado College defeats Denver. WCHA Consolation game: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota.*** Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross. Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley. Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Mercyhurst.
***If this game went the other way, Cornell finishes 4th in the PWR. Also, in both cases, Colgate is the last team in. Dartmouth is the last team out.
Keeping the CCHA and AHA picks the same, Cornell also finishes in 2nd overall if Maine beats BU for the HE title and CC beats Wisconsin for the WCHA title (with Minnesota losing the consolation game).
If the higher seeds win every game in all conference tournaments, Cornell finishes 5th in the PWR.
Finally, this very reasonable set of results gives Cornell a #1 seed as the 3rd team overall in the PWR (BC, CC, Cornell, Denver, Minnesota):
CCHA Play-in #2: Northern Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks. CCHA Play-in #1: Nebraska-Omaha defeats Michigan State. CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Northern Michigan. CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Nebraska-Omaha. CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Ohio State. CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Nebraska-Omaha. ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Colgate. ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont. ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Harvard. ECAC Consolation game: Colgate and Vermont tie. Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats New Hampshire. Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Maine. Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University. WCHA Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota. WCHA Semifinal #2: Colorado College defeats Minnesota. WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats Wisconsin. WCHA Championship game: Colorado College defeats Denver. WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin. Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross. Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley. Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Mercyhurst.
Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 03/14/2005 02:30AM by Avash '05.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: adamw (---.dyn.optonline.net)
Date: March 14, 2005 03:25AM
I just ran a scenario with Cornell at 2T - and both Colgate and Dartmouth in as No. 13 and No. 14:
CCHA Play-in #2: Northern Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
CCHA Play-in #1: Michigan State defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Northern Michigan defeats Ohio State.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Ohio State.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Harvard.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont.
ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Colgate.
ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Vermont.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Maine.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Boston College.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Colorado College defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Championship game: Colorado College defeats Denver.
WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Quinnipiac.
CCHA Play-in #2: Northern Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
CCHA Play-in #1: Michigan State defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Northern Michigan defeats Ohio State.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Ohio State.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Harvard.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont.
ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Colgate.
ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Vermont.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Maine.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Boston College.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Colorado College defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Championship game: Colorado College defeats Denver.
WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Quinnipiac.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Scersk '97 (---.dsl.chcgil.ameritech.net)
Date: March 14, 2005 03:28AM
Oh my. I'm sure there are other ways for it to happen as much as I'm sure it's not going to happen, but oh my:
Yep:
Here are the inputs:
1 CC 2t Cornell 2t Denver 4 BC 5 Minnesota 6 Michigan 7 UNH 8 BU 9 North Dakota 10 Maine 11 Harvard 12 Colgate 13t Dartmouth 13t Vermont ** Bemidji ** Bentley
Yep:
ECAC(HL) 5 WCHA 4 HE 4 CCHA 1 CHA 1 AHA 1Oh, oh, the howling!
Here are the inputs:
* CCHA Play-in #2: Alaska-Fairbanks defeats Northern Michigan.
* CCHA Play-in #1: Nebraska-Omaha defeats Michigan State.
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Nebraska-Omaha defeats Ohio State.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
* CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
* CCHA Consolation game: Alaska-Fairbanks defeats Ohio State.
* ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Harvard.
* ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont.
* ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Colgate.
* ECAC Consolation game: Vermont defeats Harvard.
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: Maine defeats Boston College.
* Hockey East Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Maine.
* WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: Colorado College defeats Minnesota.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: North Dakota defeats Denver.
* WCHA Championship game: Colorado College defeats North Dakota.
* WCHA Consolation game: Denver defeats Minnesota.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Holy Cross defeats Mercyhurst.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Bentley defeats Quinnipiac.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Bentley defeats Holy Cross.
And, yes, Cornell wins the tournament in this scenario.
Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 03/14/2005 05:40AM by Scersk '97.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: A-19 (---.ne.client2.attbi.com)
Date: March 14, 2005 03:41AM
what does everyone think is more plausible: harvard or colgate winning the 2v3 game in albany? colgate took two this year, but harvard is playing better as a team more recently (save the beanpot episodes).
i'm not sure against which opponent we'd fare better either.
and it looks like all the above "you are the committee" results depend on 2 main things: minny doesnt win the wcha and bc doesnt win the hea. that may be overstating it. i'm sure someone could show we make the top 4 if both those things occur?
everyone keeps saying we are out of contention for a #1 seed if we lose in albany. has anyone run the numbers though? i'm just curious if there could be a situation in which everything else goes our way except our actual game and we still make it. at that point, if we are close, we might need the ecac hardware to convince the committee we deserve a #1 seed.
i'm not sure against which opponent we'd fare better either.
and it looks like all the above "you are the committee" results depend on 2 main things: minny doesnt win the wcha and bc doesnt win the hea. that may be overstating it. i'm sure someone could show we make the top 4 if both those things occur?
everyone keeps saying we are out of contention for a #1 seed if we lose in albany. has anyone run the numbers though? i'm just curious if there could be a situation in which everything else goes our way except our actual game and we still make it. at that point, if we are close, we might need the ecac hardware to convince the committee we deserve a #1 seed.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: adamw (---.dyn.optonline.net)
Date: March 14, 2005 03:47AM
Actually, I've got a scenario with BC and Minnesota winning their tournament -- Cornell getting a 1 seed -- AND Colgate and Dartmouth both making it.... Don't ask me how, but here it is. ... Quinnipiac losing is huge. And Colgate needs to win the semi.
CCHA Play-in #2: Northern Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
CCHA Play-in #1: Michigan State defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Ohio State.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Northern Michigan.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Harvard.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont.
ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Colgate.
ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Vermont.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Maine.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats Colorado College.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats Denver.
WCHA Consolation game: Colorado College defeats North Dakota.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Holy Cross defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Quinnipiac.
CCHA Play-in #2: Northern Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
CCHA Play-in #1: Michigan State defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Ohio State.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Northern Michigan.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Harvard.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont.
ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Colgate.
ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Vermont.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Maine.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats Colorado College.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats Denver.
WCHA Consolation game: Colorado College defeats North Dakota.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Holy Cross defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Quinnipiac.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Scersk '97 (---.dsl.chcgil.ameritech.net)
Date: March 14, 2005 03:56AM
Well, after one abortive attempt at bracketing my scenario, I came up with this:
Ideally, we'd beat Michigan in the semi and BU for the championship. "My head a splode."
Mariucci
1 CC
16 Bentley
12 Colgate
5 Minn
Amherst
2 Cornell
15 Bemidji
11 Harvard
7 UHN
GR
3 Denver
14 Vermont
10 Maine
6 Michigan
Worcester
4 BC
13 Dartmouth
9 UND
8 BU
As has been discussed, Minnesota as a #2 seed is problematic. So is BU. Personally, I think this is a great bracket. CC gets screwed, Denver gets to play Michigan in hostile territory, and BC meets a team that gives them fits. Cornell avoids a Big 4 first round game and then gets to play a grudge match to make it to Columbus. Nice.
Ideally, we'd beat Michigan in the semi and BU for the championship. "My head a splode."
Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 03/14/2005 04:21AM by Scersk '97.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: A-19 (---.ne.client2.attbi.com)
Date: March 14, 2005 04:06AM
how is the QU v holy cross game so significant, being as neither team is a TUC anyway, and they're only competing for one of the two weak autobids?
by the way, i can get us tied for 3 even if we lose the champ. game, though the inputs are incredibly unlikely (require msu and maine winning out, and wisconsin beating denver). so i guess nothing's impossible...
CCHA Play-in #2: Northern Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
CCHA Play-in #1: Michigan State defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan State defeats Michigan. (a bit unlikely)
CCHA Championship game: Michigan State defeats Ohio State. (a bit unlikely)
CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan. (very unlikely)
ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Colgate.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont.
ECAC Championship game: Harvard defeats Cornell. (no no no)
ECAC Consolation game: Colgate defeats Vermont.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Maine defeats Boston College. (a bit unlikely)
Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats Boston University. (more unlikely)
WCHA Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Colorado College defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Wisconsin defeats Denver. (more unlikely)
WCHA Championship game: Colorado College defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Consolation game: Denver defeats Minnesota.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Holy Cross defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Quinnipiac. (more unlikely)
by the way, i can get us tied for 3 even if we lose the champ. game, though the inputs are incredibly unlikely (require msu and maine winning out, and wisconsin beating denver). so i guess nothing's impossible...
CCHA Play-in #2: Northern Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
CCHA Play-in #1: Michigan State defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan State defeats Michigan. (a bit unlikely)
CCHA Championship game: Michigan State defeats Ohio State. (a bit unlikely)
CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan. (very unlikely)
ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard defeats Colgate.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont.
ECAC Championship game: Harvard defeats Cornell. (no no no)
ECAC Consolation game: Colgate defeats Vermont.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Maine defeats Boston College. (a bit unlikely)
Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats Boston University. (more unlikely)
WCHA Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Colorado College defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Wisconsin defeats Denver. (more unlikely)
WCHA Championship game: Colorado College defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Consolation game: Denver defeats Minnesota.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Holy Cross defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Quinnipiac. (more unlikely)
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Scersk '97 (---.dsl.chcgil.ameritech.net)
Date: March 14, 2005 04:26AM
Somebody lost to Quinnipiac this season... Dartmouth!
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: A-19 (---.ne.client2.attbi.com)
Date: March 14, 2005 04:43AM
i just ran through lots of possible combinations and came to the following conclusion:
no matter what happens elsewhere, if cornell wins the tourney we are a #1 seed EXCEPT in one case (denver wins the WCHA and minny wins the consolation vs CC). that is, even if things that "need to" go our way (minny losing, maine winning, msu winning) don't, we still sneak in as long as we take care of business in albany (except in the aforementioned situation).
this is because if minny wins the WCHA we sneak ahead of denver (even if denver wins its consolation game), while if CC wins the WCHA we still sneak ahead of denver (regardless of who wins the consolation game, though the result is a messy tie for third which we win by pwr). in both of these situations, i have maine and msu losing outright, which won't necessarily happen (but would be the worst case scenario for our pwr). besides that one situation i mentioned, it's good to know that the destiny of the team is in their own hands.
conv. wisdom has been to root madly against cc and bc. i think another bottom line is to root like hell against denver, based on these results. yeah, and root against vermont, harvard and colgate too.
wow, it's 5am and i really should get to this iran defense paper.
-mike
no matter what happens elsewhere, if cornell wins the tourney we are a #1 seed EXCEPT in one case (denver wins the WCHA and minny wins the consolation vs CC). that is, even if things that "need to" go our way (minny losing, maine winning, msu winning) don't, we still sneak in as long as we take care of business in albany (except in the aforementioned situation).
this is because if minny wins the WCHA we sneak ahead of denver (even if denver wins its consolation game), while if CC wins the WCHA we still sneak ahead of denver (regardless of who wins the consolation game, though the result is a messy tie for third which we win by pwr). in both of these situations, i have maine and msu losing outright, which won't necessarily happen (but would be the worst case scenario for our pwr). besides that one situation i mentioned, it's good to know that the destiny of the team is in their own hands.
conv. wisdom has been to root madly against cc and bc. i think another bottom line is to root like hell against denver, based on these results. yeah, and root against vermont, harvard and colgate too.
wow, it's 5am and i really should get to this iran defense paper.
-mike
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Ken '70 (---.ne.client2.attbi.com)
Date: March 14, 2005 08:14AM
Under your scenario (DU winning WCHA, MN winning consolation) we still make a #1 seed as long as Maine beats BC in the HE semi and MI wins the WCHA championship
It's still preliminary, but the big out-of-towns on Friday look like Maine over BC and MI winning, and DU losing.
It's still preliminary, but the big out-of-towns on Friday look like Maine over BC and MI winning, and DU losing.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Al DeFlorio (---.ne.client2.attbi.com)
Date: March 14, 2005 08:21AM
[Q]A-19 Wrote:
how is the QU v holy cross game so significant, being as neither team is a TUC anyway, and they're only competing for one of the two weak autobids?
[/q]
The AHA champion will be a TUC come next Saturday night.
how is the QU v holy cross game so significant, being as neither team is a TUC anyway, and they're only competing for one of the two weak autobids?
[/q]
The AHA champion will be a TUC come next Saturday night.
___________________________
Al DeFlorio '65
Al DeFlorio '65
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: ithacat (128.253.193.---)
Date: March 14, 2005 10:03AM
[Q]ajec1 Wrote:
Wait, Cornell wearing white at Mariucci? Am I dreaming? That would be incredible (Even better if there were 10,000 fans in red!).[/q]
Yes, you're dreaming a mad dream. I believe Mariucci sells out, though their website says SRO and scattered tix were available for regular season games. Minny would have an enormous home ice advantage, not to mention they're 22-0 in WCHA playoff games played in-house.
I gotta say, however, I like that dream...
Wait, Cornell wearing white at Mariucci? Am I dreaming? That would be incredible (Even better if there were 10,000 fans in red!).[/q]
Yes, you're dreaming a mad dream. I believe Mariucci sells out, though their website says SRO and scattered tix were available for regular season games. Minny would have an enormous home ice advantage, not to mention they're 22-0 in WCHA playoff games played in-house.
I gotta say, however, I like that dream...
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: DeltaOne81 (---.raytheon.com)
Date: March 14, 2005 10:12AM
I did also realize, guys, there's always the chance of trying to buck common wisdom. If Minny wins, they could definitely move up, if they beat DU, either in the title game or in the Consy, they would take that comparison on the strength of a 3-1 H2H record - and they would . That would move them up to 3rd. Perhaps we could follow them up to 4th and get the #1 seed, or else, even if we stay 5th we'd no longer matchup with Minny.
So Minn losing is good, Minn winning is fine too. We seem to have a dozen scenarios in which we end up a #1, and there are several more, by us losing or Minn winning, where we'd at least not match up with Minn.
So here's the question, can people figure out a scenario in which we *stay* 4/5 with Minn (or, I suppose, maybe 3/6 or 2/7 or 1/8). In other words, would it be easier to decide what we *don't* want to happen?
So Minn losing is good, Minn winning is fine too. We seem to have a dozen scenarios in which we end up a #1, and there are several more, by us losing or Minn winning, where we'd at least not match up with Minn.
So here's the question, can people figure out a scenario in which we *stay* 4/5 with Minn (or, I suppose, maybe 3/6 or 2/7 or 1/8). In other words, would it be easier to decide what we *don't* want to happen?
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: jkahn (216.146.73.---)
Date: March 14, 2005 10:51AM
[Q]A-19 Wrote:
i just ran through lots of possible combinations and came to the following conclusion:
no matter what happens elsewhere, if cornell wins the tourney we are a #1 seed EXCEPT in one case (denver wins the WCHA and minny wins the consolation vs CC)...
-mike[/q]
Has anyone run these scenarios assuming Colgate losing twice, which might cause Brown to lose TUC status, as they played Colgate four times?
i just ran through lots of possible combinations and came to the following conclusion:
no matter what happens elsewhere, if cornell wins the tourney we are a #1 seed EXCEPT in one case (denver wins the WCHA and minny wins the consolation vs CC)...
-mike[/q]
Has anyone run these scenarios assuming Colgate losing twice, which might cause Brown to lose TUC status, as they played Colgate four times?
___________________________
Jeff Kahn '70 '72
Jeff Kahn '70 '72
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Tub(a) (---.resnet.cornell.edu)
Date: March 14, 2005 10:53AM
[Q]DeltaOne81 Wrote:
I did also realize, guys, there's always the chance of trying to buck common wisdom. If Minny wins, they could definitely move up, if they beat DU, either in the title game or in the Consy, they would take that comparison on the strength of a 3-1 H2H record - and they would . That would move them up to 3rd. Perhaps we could follow them up to 4th and get the #1 seed, or else, even if we stay 5th we'd no longer matchup with Minny.
So Minn losing is good, Minn winning is fine too. We seem to have a dozen scenarios in which we end up a #1, and there are several more, by us losing or Minn winning, where we'd at least not match up with Minn.
So here's the question, can people figure out a scenario in which we *stay* 4/5 with Minn (or, I suppose, maybe 3/6 or 2/7 or 1/8). In other words, would it be easier to decide what we *don't* want to happen?[/q]
Here is an awful one (3,2,1 Bonus):
* CCHA Play-in #2: Northern Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
* CCHA Play-in #1: Michigan State defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Northern Michigan.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Ohio State.
* CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Harvard.
* ECAC Semifinal #1: Vermont defeats Cornell.
* ECAC Championship game: Vermont defeats Colgate.
* ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Cornell.
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Maine.
* Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats New Hampshire.
* WCHA Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats Colorado College.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats Denver.
* WCHA Consolation game: Colorado College defeats Wisconsin.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Mercyhurst.
Which leads to (with lots of shuffling to avoid intra-conference matchups, BC gets screwed):
Amherst
BC
UNH
ND
Wisconsin
Grand Rapids
CC
Michigan
Vermont
Quinnipiac
Minnesota
Minnesota
Cornell
Maine
Ohio State
Worcester
Denver
Harvard
BU
Bemidji
I don't think I would be booking Columbus hotels with a regional like that
I did also realize, guys, there's always the chance of trying to buck common wisdom. If Minny wins, they could definitely move up, if they beat DU, either in the title game or in the Consy, they would take that comparison on the strength of a 3-1 H2H record - and they would . That would move them up to 3rd. Perhaps we could follow them up to 4th and get the #1 seed, or else, even if we stay 5th we'd no longer matchup with Minny.
So Minn losing is good, Minn winning is fine too. We seem to have a dozen scenarios in which we end up a #1, and there are several more, by us losing or Minn winning, where we'd at least not match up with Minn.
So here's the question, can people figure out a scenario in which we *stay* 4/5 with Minn (or, I suppose, maybe 3/6 or 2/7 or 1/8). In other words, would it be easier to decide what we *don't* want to happen?[/q]
Here is an awful one (3,2,1 Bonus):
* CCHA Play-in #2: Northern Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
* CCHA Play-in #1: Michigan State defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Northern Michigan.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Ohio State.
* CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Harvard.
* ECAC Semifinal #1: Vermont defeats Cornell.
* ECAC Championship game: Vermont defeats Colgate.
* ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Cornell.
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Maine.
* Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats New Hampshire.
* WCHA Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats Colorado College.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats Denver.
* WCHA Consolation game: Colorado College defeats Wisconsin.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Mercyhurst.
Which leads to (with lots of shuffling to avoid intra-conference matchups, BC gets screwed):
Amherst
BC
UNH
ND
Wisconsin
Grand Rapids
CC
Michigan
Vermont
Quinnipiac
Minnesota
Minnesota
Cornell
Maine
Ohio State
Worcester
Denver
Harvard
BU
Bemidji
I don't think I would be booking Columbus hotels with a regional like that
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: DeltaOne81 (---.raytheon.com)
Date: March 14, 2005 11:08AM
So in that situation, Minn wins twice, they would probably move up to 3? So by us losing twice, including to Harvard, we only drop to 6? Plus, I have a hunch the loss to Harvard is key, to flip our comparison with them. The odds of Cornell/Harvard being the consolation game, well, its definitely possible, but that's a weird thought. Alright, so that's a little bit of a stretch, and wouldn't go along with us doing well. If we lose out in Albany, I guess we deserve our fate.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Tub(a) (---.resnet.cornell.edu)
Date: March 14, 2005 11:26AM
[Q]DeltaOne81 Wrote:
So in that situation, Minn wins twice, they would probably move up to 3? So by us losing twice, including to Harvard, we only drop to 6? Plus, I have a hunch the loss to Harvard is key, to flip our comparison with them. The odds of Cornell/Harvard being the consolation game, well, its definitely possible, but that's a weird thought. Alright, so that's a little bit of a stretch, and wouldn't go along with us doing well. If we lose out in Albany, I guess we deserve our fate.[/q]
In that situation (Minnesota winning the WCHA):
If we lose twice and either Vermont or Colgate wins the title, we go to Minnesota. If we lose twice and Harvard wins the title, we go to Grand Rapids in CCs bracket.
If we lose the first game and win the consolation, we go to Minnesota.
If we win the first game and lose the championship, we go to Minnesota.
If we win the ECAC, Minnesota is 3rd, and we are 4th. We would probably be in Amherst with Denver, Maine (to avoid HE matchup), and Wisconsin.
Finally done editing I think, and I also think it's pretty clear that we are cheering AGAINST Minnesota under pretty much any circumstance.
So in that situation, Minn wins twice, they would probably move up to 3? So by us losing twice, including to Harvard, we only drop to 6? Plus, I have a hunch the loss to Harvard is key, to flip our comparison with them. The odds of Cornell/Harvard being the consolation game, well, its definitely possible, but that's a weird thought. Alright, so that's a little bit of a stretch, and wouldn't go along with us doing well. If we lose out in Albany, I guess we deserve our fate.[/q]
In that situation (Minnesota winning the WCHA):
If we lose twice and either Vermont or Colgate wins the title, we go to Minnesota. If we lose twice and Harvard wins the title, we go to Grand Rapids in CCs bracket.
If we lose the first game and win the consolation, we go to Minnesota.
If we win the first game and lose the championship, we go to Minnesota.
If we win the ECAC, Minnesota is 3rd, and we are 4th. We would probably be in Amherst with Denver, Maine (to avoid HE matchup), and Wisconsin.
Finally done editing I think, and I also think it's pretty clear that we are cheering AGAINST Minnesota under pretty much any circumstance.
Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 03/14/2005 11:41AM by Tub(a).
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: jkahn (216.146.73.---)
Date: March 14, 2005 11:49AM
[Q]jkahn Wrote:
Has anyone run these scenarios assuming Colgate losing twice, which might cause Brown to lose TUC status, as they played Colgate four times?[/q]
Answering my own question, it looks like only one Colgate loss will drop Brown out of TUC.
So the above scenarios therefore do have Colgate out as a TUC. Brown's non-TUC status results in part from the added effect of the Albany wins and losses of not only Colgate, but the other 3 semi-finalists, which bring down Brown's opponents' winning percentage.
Has anyone run these scenarios assuming Colgate losing twice, which might cause Brown to lose TUC status, as they played Colgate four times?[/q]
Answering my own question, it looks like only one Colgate loss will drop Brown out of TUC.
So the above scenarios therefore do have Colgate out as a TUC. Brown's non-TUC status results in part from the added effect of the Albany wins and losses of not only Colgate, but the other 3 semi-finalists, which bring down Brown's opponents' winning percentage.
___________________________
Jeff Kahn '70 '72
Jeff Kahn '70 '72
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: CrazyLarry (---.caltech.edu)
Date: March 14, 2005 02:02PM
The UVM-MichState Comparison, crucial in deciding whether UVM or the Badgers are last in in this scenario, seems to hinge on RPI, and thus the bonus, in this scenario. So, not only do the games have to be right, the bonus does, too. So, unlikely doesn't begin to describe it.
Still fun to think about.
Still fun to think about.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Ken '70 (---.ne.client2.attbi.com)
Date: March 14, 2005 06:43PM
Actually not. I've run a bunch of scenarios with MN winning out and as long as we win out we get a #1 seed.
In fact, MN winning out is one of the most forgiving assumptions about the WCHA results.
We should be rooting for MN to win out because even if we lose the ECAC championship game we stay east (as #5 against DU as #4) under most likely scenarios.
These include either MI or OSU as CCHA champs and UNH or BC as HE champs.
In fact, MN winning out is one of the most forgiving assumptions about the WCHA results.
We should be rooting for MN to win out because even if we lose the ECAC championship game we stay east (as #5 against DU as #4) under most likely scenarios.
These include either MI or OSU as CCHA champs and UNH or BC as HE champs.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Tub(a) (---.music.cornell.edu)
Date: March 14, 2005 06:55PM
[Q]Ken '70 Wrote:
Actually not. I've run a bunch of scenarios with MN winning out and as long as we win out we get a #1 seed.
In fact, MN winning out is one of the most forgiving assumptions about the WCHA results.
We should be rooting for MN to win out because even if we lose the ECAC championship game we stay east (as #5 against DU as #4) under most likely scenarios.
These include either MI or OSU as CCHA champs and UNH or BC as HE champs.
[/q]
Everything I ran (which was BC, MI, and MN winning their tournies) shows Minnesota moving up to 3 winning out and us at a tie for 5th (unless we win the ECACHL) that we lose, sending us to Minnesota. Do you have the results page from USCHO so we can see where we differ? Did you use something besides 3 2 1 bonuses?
Actually not. I've run a bunch of scenarios with MN winning out and as long as we win out we get a #1 seed.
In fact, MN winning out is one of the most forgiving assumptions about the WCHA results.
We should be rooting for MN to win out because even if we lose the ECAC championship game we stay east (as #5 against DU as #4) under most likely scenarios.
These include either MI or OSU as CCHA champs and UNH or BC as HE champs.
[/q]
Everything I ran (which was BC, MI, and MN winning their tournies) shows Minnesota moving up to 3 winning out and us at a tie for 5th (unless we win the ECACHL) that we lose, sending us to Minnesota. Do you have the results page from USCHO so we can see where we differ? Did you use something besides 3 2 1 bonuses?
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/14/2005 06:57PM by Tub(a).
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Ken '70 (---.ne.client2.attbi.com)
Date: March 14, 2005 08:00PM
Here's an example. In this case we're the #5 seed playing DU. The key seems to be that MN wins out and beats DU in the process and that we lose to Colgate. OSU over MI seems to yield slightly more good scenarios for us, but most MI winning are good too.
ME winning HE is slightly better than other options (we get a #1 seed even if we lose the ECAC final to Colgate in that case).
So I think we do have a big rooting interest in the late game Friday. Playing Colgate Saturday gives us more eastern ice options (should we lose).
CCHA Play-in #2: Alaska-Fairbanks defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Play-in #1: Michigan State defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
CCHA Championship game: Ohio State defeats Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Harvard.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont.
ECAC Championship game: Colgate defeats Cornell.
ECAC Consolation game: Vermont defeats Harvard.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Maine.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats New Hampshire.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats Colorado College.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats Denver.
WCHA Consolation game: Colorado College defeats North Dakota.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Mercyhurst.
ME winning HE is slightly better than other options (we get a #1 seed even if we lose the ECAC final to Colgate in that case).
So I think we do have a big rooting interest in the late game Friday. Playing Colgate Saturday gives us more eastern ice options (should we lose).
CCHA Play-in #2: Alaska-Fairbanks defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Play-in #1: Michigan State defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
CCHA Championship game: Ohio State defeats Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Harvard.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont.
ECAC Championship game: Colgate defeats Cornell.
ECAC Consolation game: Vermont defeats Harvard.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Maine.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats New Hampshire.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats Colorado College.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats Denver.
WCHA Consolation game: Colorado College defeats North Dakota.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Mercyhurst.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Ken '70 (---.ne.client2.attbi.com)
Date: March 14, 2005 08:11PM
The real magic seems to be Maine winning out. I can't find a scenario where we don't get a #1 seed if we win out when Maine does. I'm sure I haven't tested them all, but Maine seems to be our insurance policy.
Here's a wierd one. We get the #3 seed under this scenario whether we win or lose to Colgate in the Final.
CCHA Play-in #2: Northern Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
CCHA Play-in #1: Michigan State defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Ohio State.
CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Harvard.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont.
ECAC Championship game: Colgate defeats Cornell.
ECAC Consolation game: Vermont defeats Harvard.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Maine defeats Boston College.
Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats New Hampshire.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats Colorado College.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Championship game: Denver defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Consolation game: Colorado College defeats North Dakota.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Mercyhurst.
Here's a wierd one. We get the #3 seed under this scenario whether we win or lose to Colgate in the Final.
CCHA Play-in #2: Northern Michigan defeats Alaska-Fairbanks.
CCHA Play-in #1: Michigan State defeats Nebraska-Omaha.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Ohio State defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Ohio State.
CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Harvard.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Vermont.
ECAC Championship game: Colgate defeats Cornell.
ECAC Consolation game: Vermont defeats Harvard.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Maine defeats Boston College.
Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats New Hampshire.
WCHA Play-in #1: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Minnesota defeats Colorado College.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Championship game: Denver defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Consolation game: Colorado College defeats North Dakota.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Mercyhurst.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: andyw2100 (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: March 14, 2005 08:39PM
Ken--
Are you going to Albany? If so, will you have net access, and will you be updating us as the weekend progresses? If so, it would be much appreciated.
Andy W.
Are you going to Albany? If so, will you have net access, and will you be updating us as the weekend progresses? If so, it would be much appreciated.
Andy W.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: Ken '70 (---.ne.client2.attbi.com)
Date: March 14, 2005 10:01PM
Andy, if you haven't already, run the Your are the Committee script at [www.uscho.com]. It's fun and addicting.
I'll be commuting the couple hours each way from the Boston area to Albany on Fri and Sat. By Sat. morning the probabilities as to where they'll end up, and why, might be narrowing down a lot. No doubt I'll share my thoughts on that here.
I'll be commuting the couple hours each way from the Boston area to Albany on Fri and Sat. By Sat. morning the probabilities as to where they'll end up, and why, might be narrowing down a lot. No doubt I'll share my thoughts on that here.
Re: Bracketology Sunday
Posted by: andyw2100 (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: March 14, 2005 10:41PM
[Q]Ken '70 Wrote:
I'll be commuting the couple hours each way from the Boston area to Albany on Fri and Sat. By Sat. morning the probabilities as to where they'll end up, and why, might be narrowing down a lot. No doubt I'll share my thoughts on that here.[/q]
That's great, Ken. Thanks!
Andy
I'll be commuting the couple hours each way from the Boston area to Albany on Fri and Sat. By Sat. morning the probabilities as to where they'll end up, and why, might be narrowing down a lot. No doubt I'll share my thoughts on that here.[/q]
That's great, Ken. Thanks!
Andy
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