New Bracketology: We Get Hosed

[www.uscho.com]

That looks awful. Not only do we have to go to Minnesota, but we have to face OSU (9th seed) in the first round.

[Q]Tub(a) Wrote:That looks awful. Not only do we have to go to Minnesota, but we have to face OSU (9th seed) in the first round. [/q]Yes it looks awful, but the most important line is, "We'll be back tomorrow to see what Saturday's results have done.".

We have the chance to beat D'mouth and H'vd next week. If we don't win the tourney then no number 1 seed. If we do win then it depends upon many other variables. Much too early too lose any sleep or even to frown .....>

Yeah, but, Jason does some WEIRD things. For one, he refuses to shuffle the 4 seeds to give the overall #1 a matchup against the #13 seed. That's ridiculous, because #1a vs. 4a or 4b is one thing we KNOW the comittee will do, from experience. Good grief.

Also, Jason seems to ignore possible secondary effects (i.e. UAA becoming a TUC, BG dropping from one) in his Q&A part, which is the only interesting thing anyway, because there are lots of games left to be played, and only 6 teams that won't lose between now and the end of the season.

Hmm, the brackets that he has right now has a intra-conference first round match up of Wisconsin and Minnesota. I would highly doubt that this would be a first round match up even if the committe was forced to have two teams in the same conference play each other. If I had a preference on where our team ends up, I think one of the last places would be in Minnesota, since it is a home game for Minnesota and we end up playing them if you assume all number 1 and 2s beat all number 3s and 4s. There is still a long way to go, before we know the seedings. Right now, we still could be passed by Michigan or we could game some PWRs from DU and BC if our RPI goes up higher. Plus if we win the ECAC tourney, we would have 2 more TUC wins. These two wins will increade our TUC % more than DU,CC, or MN will in the conference tourney since they play so many TUCs. There are a lot of variables still to be worked out right now, all our team can do is win and hope for the best.

Cornell is pretty much stuck at #5 no matter what (reasonable) things happen. Expect to go to MN for the regional. But there are some chances.

To move up to #1 seed Cornell has to either win its comparison with MN or win two of the other three.

MN - it's all about TUC. AA isn't going to make TUC unless they win both from WI. For Cornell to flip TUC with MN without AA then MN has to lose both games at the conference championships and Cornell has to win the ECAC. Possibility of both occuring, probably a lot less than 50%.

DU - RPI determines. Cornell wins out, DU doesn't, it'll flip. Odds better than the MN scenario but still not much above 50%

CC - RPI. CC needs to lose next two to SCSU. Odds 0%

BC - RPI. BC loses to Umass tonight it will be close. Realistically BC will win tonight. Next week they probably need to lose the semi while Cornell wins out. If they end up playing PC in the semi then a loss in the final might do it.

The only help that's available is in the form of UNH and BU. Both have a chance of flipping their own comparisons with MN meaning Cornell could get ahead of MN by only winning one other comp. they're now losing. But both scenarios for help from HE require BU make the HE Final Four.

Really, the most important out-of-town score tonight is probably the BU PC game. Cornell maintains the most options for a#1 seed if BU stays alive tonight and meets UNH in a HE semi, then whoever wins that game needs to win the HE championship. As long as MN doesn't win out, that scenario will probably flip either MN-UNH or MN-BU.

In that case, if DU doesn't win out and Cornell does, there's a good chance we make a #1 seed.

At least DU and MN would play each other in the WCHA semis. Someone will lose. We also get a slight edge over DU in bonus points (1 N vs. 1 H)

Also, does one of our AHA opponents winning the tourney there help us in the TUC category enough? It'd get us one extra win there, but probably not only us. Checking, the only other top team helped would be CC, if Quinnipiac wins the AHA. That would hurt Dartmouth, for anyone who cares.

Yes, whoever wins the AHA and CHA automatically becomes a TUC, so tonight we have to root for Army, Canisius, and Sacred Heart, if they all win we have an excellent chance of picking up another TUC win.

Sadly, I don't think it changes the situation wrt MN. They still need to lose twice for us to flip the comparison. However, based on watching Mankato-MN last night, if Mankato gets any goaltending, that could happen. Yes, it was 7-2, but it shouldn't have been. Man, Mankato goalie is the worst thing I ever saw. He sucks! He's not a sieve, he's a Hula Hoop! Argggh...

Oops, I forgot we played Army not QU. An Army move to TUC status hurts Colgate, for those who care, but not in any material way, as far as I can see.

Interesting about rooting for BU. Who knew that the one other game I thought went our way, actually didn't.

A Canisius tournament win and, hence, extra TUC for us could turn out to be a pyhrric victory once removed.

If you use the DIY script to calculate the potential PWR, having all the favorites yet win the series that have been extended to three games, using a 3-2-1 bonus, and including Quinnipiac as an extra TUC, we end up #6 and Michigan gets shipped out to Minnesota. If Canisius wins, we're goin' Gopher hunting in enemy territory.

Suffice it to say that I'm glad there are still ways we can win the ECAC(HL) championship and avoid the Gophers, i.e., that the PWR is still very volatile.

You raise the most important point: getting to an improbable #1 seed isn't the only way to NCAA happiness. If things haven't broken our way (in other games) by next Friday or Saturday night, simply root against Cornell. Two TUC losses in Albany would certainly drop us behind MI and into an eastern ice situation. Heresy, I know, but your choice might be to root FOR Cornell in Albany and a trip to MN and probable oblivion, or root AGAINST Cornell for a trip to Amherst or Worcester and a much better chance to watch them on TV at the Final Four. And once you get to that stage, anything can happen.

Personally, I don't think I could root against them and mean it, but it would be a silver lining.

Oh, I would never, ever, never exchange an ECAC tournament championship for niceties in NCAA seeding. If we end up playing Minnesota at Mariucci because we've won our eleventh championship, then so be it.

Winning an NCAA championship without winning the ECAC championship (Harvard) is like eating a big ol' tub of chocolate icing: the icing still tastes good, but, without the cake, it makes you feel a bit sick.

[Q]Scersk '97 Wrote:

Oh, I would never, ever, never exchange an ECAC tournament championship for niceties in NCAA seeding. If we end up playing Minnesota at Mariucci because we've won our eleventh championship, then so be it.

Winning an NCAA championship without winning the ECAC championship (Harvard) is like eating a big ol' tub of chocolate icing: the icing still tastes good, but, without the cake, it makes you feel a bit sick.[/q]
I don't think an NCAA championship is the icing on the cake... it's the ultimate goal. The Florida Classic is something I'd call icing... nice to have, but doesn't really matter.

Losing the ECACs and winning the NCAAs due to more fortuitous seeding is closer to having your long-time girlfriend dump you only to get asked out by the campus bombshell... sure your ex bruised your ego by dumping you, but look what you ended up with instead, and you're the envy of every man in town.

[Q]Section A Banshee Wrote:

Scersk '97 Wrote:
Winning an NCAA championship without winning the ECAC championship (Harvard) is like eating a big ol' tub of chocolate icing: the icing still tastes good, but, without the cake, it makes you feel a bit sick.[/Q]
Losing the ECACs and winning the NCAAs due to more fortuitous seeding is closer to having your long-time girlfriend dump you only to get asked out by the campus bombshell... sure your ex bruised your ego by dumping you, but look what you ended up with instead, and you're the envy of every man in town.[/q]

Well, mixing metaphors, perhaps winning the NCAAs after losing the ECACs is like having your long-time girlfriend dump you because you wanted to lick icing off of her and then getting to lick icing off the campus bombshell but ending up getting sick.

Of course, if you just win both, then its a threesome and yummy icing for everybody!