Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by billhoward
Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: billhoward (---.nwrknj.fios.verizon.net)
Date: December 18, 2023 05:31PM
An oddsmaking site (betting site) says Cornell men have the 11th best odds of winning the NCAAs (22/1), with North Dakota the favorite and Quinnipiac the only more highly regarded ECAC team. Cornell women have the seventh best odds of winning, with TOSU favored and ECAC teams Colgate, Clarkson and Quinnipiac rated above Cornell. From the site sportsbetting dotAG (Antigua and Barbuda)
NCAA Men's Hockey Championship North Dakota 7/1 Wisconsin 15/2 Boston College 17/2 Minnesota 9/1 Boston University 10/1 Denver 10/1 Maine 12/1 Quinnipiac 12/1 Michigan 16/1 Michigan State 16/1 Cornell 22/1 Notre Dame 25/1 Penn State 35/1 Providence 35/1 Saint Cloud State 35/1 Western Michigan 35/1 Minnesota State 40/1 New Hampshire 45/1 Arizona State 50/1 Harvard 50/1 Minnesota Duluth 50/1 Ohio State 50/1 Merrimack 60/1 Nebraska Omaha 60/1 Northeastern 60/1 UMass Amherst 60/1 UMass Lowell 60/1 Connecticut 75/1 Michigan Tech 75/1 Augustana 100/1 Bemidji State 100/1 Colorado College 100/1 NCAA Women's Hockey Championship Ohio State 23/4 Wisconsin 6/1 Colgate 17/2 Clarkson 10/1 Quinnipiac 14/1 Minnesota 18/1 Cornell 20/1 Northeastern 20/1 Boston College 25/1 Mercyhurst 25/1 Minnesota Duluth 25/1 Penn State 25/1 Rensselaer 25/1 Saint Cloud State 25/1 St. Lawrence 25/1 Vermont 25/1 Yale 25/1 Boston University 35/1 Minnesota State 40/1 RIT 40/1 St. Anselm 40/1 Stonehill 40/1 Assumption University 45/1 New Hampshire 45/1 Lindenwood 50/1 Long Island 50/1 Maine 50/1 Connecticut 75/1 Robert Morris 75/1 Saint Thomas 75/1 Franklin Pierce 100/1 Providence 100/1 Sacred Heart 100/1 Syracuse 100/1
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: December 18, 2023 06:46PM
If this means I have only to wait another 22 years, I might make it.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: ursusminor (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: December 19, 2023 01:08AM
It's hard to believe that the RPI women have a 25-1 shot of winning, tied for fifth in the ECAC.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: marty (161.11.160.---)
Date: December 19, 2023 09:01AM
ursusminor
It's hard to believe that the RPI women have a 25-1 shot of winning, tied for fifth in the ECAC.
It's hard to believe that the odds makers will make money if a long shot wins either title. Also I'm wondering if BearLover has wagered.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: abmarks (---.hsd1.vt.comcast.net)
Date: December 20, 2023 04:54AM
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: ursusminor (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: December 20, 2023 05:31AM
Then that is off by a factor of about 2 which is not nearly as inaccurate as the RPI women's odds given. When I posted this on the RPI women's thread on USCHO, another poster gave the RPI women's odds as 4,000,000 to one which seems much more accurate to me.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: December 20, 2023 07:55AM
ursusminor
Then that is off by a factor of about 2 which is not nearly as inaccurate as the RPI women's odds given. When I posted this on the RPI women's thread on USCHO, another poster gave the RPI women's odds as 4,000,000 to one which seems much more accurate to me.
I had a physics professor who argued that despite the probabilistic essence of subatomic phenomenon, some things that were not logically impossible nevertheless were impossible. He gave the example of a tea kettle on the right front burner which suddenly reconstitutes itself on the left front burner because all particles happen to jump in exactly the same direction. That can't ever happen, because if you ever observe it the odds are for all purposes infinitely higher that you've had a psychotic break from reality and imagined it.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 12/20/2023 07:56AM by Trotsky.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: ursusminor (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: December 20, 2023 01:10PM
Trotsky
ursusminor
Then that is off by a factor of about 2 which is not nearly as inaccurate as the RPI women's odds given. When I posted this on the RPI women's thread on USCHO, another poster gave the RPI women's odds as 4,000,000 to one which seems much more accurate to me.
I had a physics professor who argued that despite the probabilistic essence of subatomic phenomenon, some things that were not logically impossible nevertheless were impossible. He gave the example of a tea kettle on the right front burner which suddenly reconstitutes itself on the left front burner because all particles happen to jump in exactly the same direction. That can't ever happen, because if you ever observe it the odds are for all purposes infinitely higher that you've had a psychotic break from reality and imagined it.
The same list posted on the RPI women's thread on USCHO gives the Harvard women's odds as 100 trillion to 1. That might be worth betting a penny or two even with Harvard's problems although the bookie would probably disappear.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: billhoward (---.nwrknj.fios.verizon.net)
Date: December 21, 2023 11:48AM
These are PR mailings sent to anybody who's been in publishing and drawn a breath in the last couple years, with the sender's hope something will be written and mention the name of the oddsmaker. Which I did but not in the form of a direct link.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Scersk '97 (216.49.132.---)
Date: December 21, 2023 08:20PM
Trotsky
ursusminor
Then that is off by a factor of about 2 which is not nearly as inaccurate as the RPI women's odds given. When I posted this on the RPI women's thread on USCHO, another poster gave the RPI women's odds as 4,000,000 to one which seems much more accurate to me.
I had a physics professor who argued that despite the probabilistic essence of subatomic phenomenon, some things that were not logically impossible nevertheless were impossible. He gave the example of a tea kettle on the right front burner which suddenly reconstitutes itself on the left front burner because all particles happen to jump in exactly the same direction. That can't ever happen, because if you ever observe it the odds are for all purposes infinitely higher that you've had a psychotic break from reality and imagined it.
I've run into many walls. Never quantum tunneled.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: January 18, 2024 06:32PM
Moved from ECAC thread:
It is the right thing to do. The temptation will be to make the games best-of-three. TBH, I'd back that as well. Anything to stop the factory schools with big rinks from buying their way to the F4, the way it is now.
Cornell since 2018:
2018 14 Princeton at 3 Cornell
2019 11 Cornell at 6 Northeastern
2020 16 somebody at 1 Cornell
2023 13 Cornell at 4 Denver
The Rancor
I didn't want to start another thread, but feel free to move if in the wrong space:
NCAA Hockey Regionals to Home Sites
It is the right thing to do. The temptation will be to make the games best-of-three. TBH, I'd back that as well. Anything to stop the factory schools with big rinks from buying their way to the F4, the way it is now.
Cornell since 2018:
2018 14 Princeton at 3 Cornell
2019 11 Cornell at 6 Northeastern
2020 16 somebody at 1 Cornell
2023 13 Cornell at 4 Denver
Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 01/18/2024 06:41PM by Trotsky.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: January 18, 2024 06:50PM
The way the crowds are going down at regionals it makes sense.. They get a few crowds of 5k now they would 8 crowds of 4-15K.. Less travel for 8 teams as well. less money paid out to arenas.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: scoop85 (---.res.spectrum.com)
Date: January 18, 2024 06:59PM
The neutral site model simply hasn’t worked. Time for a change.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: marty (---.res.spectrum.com)
Date: January 18, 2024 07:12PM
scoop85
The neutral site model simply hasn’t worked. Time for a change.
It worked fine when there were only 12 teams. That may have been the newness of the format or the fact that you knew you would see two of the teams advance to the Frozen Four. It also might have been that the the era of live sports attendance hadn't started to wane.
I felt more excitement then too. As an alternative to ditching the neutral regionals could there be two locations with eight teams at each?
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: January 18, 2024 08:08PM
In 2018 we played BU.Trotsky
Moved from ECAC thread:
The Rancor
I didn't want to start another thread, but feel free to move if in the wrong space:
NCAA Hockey Regionals to Home Sites
It is the right thing to do. The temptation will be to make the games best-of-three. TBH, I'd back that as well. Anything to stop the factory schools with big rinks from buying their way to the F4, the way it is now.
Cornell since 2018:
2018 14 Princeton at 3 Cornell
2019 11 Cornell at 6 Northeastern
2020 16 somebody at 1 Cornell
2023 13 Cornell at 4 Denver
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: January 18, 2024 09:19PM
BearLover
In 2018 we played BU.
These are the pairings that a straight 1/16 would have yielded.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/18/2024 09:19PM by Trotsky.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Iceberg (---.phlapa.fios.verizon.net)
Date: January 19, 2024 01:48AM
And then you have instances like in 2015 where Providence basically gets two home games in the regional despite being a low seed and doesn't need to travel far for the FF--to a city they visit most seasons no less
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/19/2024 01:48AM by Iceberg.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Chris '03 (104.28.55.---)
Date: January 19, 2024 06:57AM
marty
scoop85
The neutral site model simply hasn’t worked. Time for a change.
It worked fine when there were only 12 teams. That may have been the newness of the format or the fact that you knew you would see two of the teams advance to the Frozen Four. It also might have been that the the era of live sports attendance hadn't started to wane.
I felt more excitement then too. As an alternative to ditching the neutral regionals could there be two locations with eight teams at each?
In the 12 team era, there were two regionals of six teams. It's a larger fan pool to pull from.
Now that there's a day off between regional semi and final, I think they should return to two regions. Eight teams at each. If the ncaa could find venues that are permanent or semi permanent hosts, all the better to allow folks to plan travel, build traditions, etc.
Two games Thursday night. Two Fri. Region finals Saturday night and Sunday afternoon.
Sadly, I think on campus playoffs would likely suffer vs regular season attendance for two reasons: additional tickets to buy (we see it with ecac home series) and spring break attrition depending on the calendar.
Of course I'm somewhat biased in that from CT it's usually a lot easier for me to get to 3/4s of regionals than Ithaca. Especially ithaca potentially two weeks in a row.
___________________________
"Mark Mazzoleni looks like a guy whose dog just died out there..."
"Mark Mazzoleni looks like a guy whose dog just died out there..."
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: January 19, 2024 08:36AM
I think home venues would work better than and ECAC venue does
one thing going for it is better opp.. much like Minn Dul coming in had a nice crowd..
The energy in the ECAC is because people plan on Cornell winning so often only show for the Sat game thinking that will be it to clinch.
The energy of a real imp playoff game would be crazy i suspect.
one thing going for it is better opp.. much like Minn Dul coming in had a nice crowd..
The energy in the ECAC is because people plan on Cornell winning so often only show for the Sat game thinking that will be it to clinch.
The energy of a real imp playoff game would be crazy i suspect.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: January 19, 2024 10:29AM
This is the fucking killer of the regionals. It makes it impossible to attend if you have a job or classes so, hey, welcome retirees!Chris '03
Now that there's a day off between regional semi and final
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: January 19, 2024 10:33AM
upprdeck
The energy of a real imp playoff game would be crazy i suspect.
This is why they should do both (1) home sites and (2) one and done.
Can you imagine an NCAA game at Lynah? You want to finally restore the Golden Age of fan engagement? That will do it.
And what a cherry on top for the season. Going out to Lake Placid for the ECACs and then having the team get to come back home and play a super meaningful game. Makes me hard just thinking about it, and with my blood pressure meds that's a miracle.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: adamw (---.hsd1.co.comcast.net)
Date: January 19, 2024 03:06PM
Trotsky
It is the right thing to do. The temptation will be to make the games best-of-three. TBH, I'd back that as well. Anything to stop the factory schools with big rinks from buying their way to the F4, the way it is now.
This makes no sense, Mr. I Hate Sports Journalists.
The factory schools with big rinks are all the ones clamoring to go back to campus - precisely because they DON'T have an advantage currently. The reason the ECAC schools of the world want neutral site Regionals, is to avoid the double whammy of not getting home games vs. big schools in the regular season, and then having to go to their arenas for NCAA games.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: January 19, 2024 05:09PM
adamw
Trotsky
It is the right thing to do. The temptation will be to make the games best-of-three. TBH, I'd back that as well. Anything to stop the factory schools with big rinks from buying their way to the F4, the way it is now.
This makes no sense, Mr. I Hate Sports Journalists.
The factory schools with big rinks are all the ones clamoring to go back to campus - precisely because they DON'T have an advantage currently. The reason the ECAC schools of the world want neutral site Regionals, is to avoid the double whammy of not getting home games vs. big schools in the regular season, and then having to go to their arenas for NCAA games.
It makes perfect sense.
It's only an advantage if they finish top 8. If they don't, devil take the hindmost.
If North Dakota earns a home seed then I am fine with that. What I am not fine with is them or Michigan or Minnesota getting a defacto home game as a 13 because they ponied up the cash to host locally. That's bribery, er, lobbying, er "development" ahem.
I am surprised ND wants this, but I assume they just want the larger gate. Sometimes the asshole is right.
Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 01/19/2024 05:16PM by Trotsky.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: marty (---.res.spectrum.com)
Date: January 19, 2024 05:13PM
adamw
Trotsky
It is the right thing to do. The temptation will be to make the games best-of-three. TBH, I'd back that as well. Anything to stop the factory schools with big rinks from buying their way to the F4, the way it is now.
This makes no sense, Mr. I Hate Sports Journalists.
The factory schools with big rinks are all the ones clamoring to go back to campus - precisely because they DON'T have an advantage currently. The reason the ECAC schools of the world want neutral site Regionals, is to avoid the double whammy of not getting home games vs. big schools in the regular season, and then having to go to their arenas for NCAA games.
In a bid to drift this thread into an irrelevant direction, I will point out that AI sports writers can be hated by all.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: January 19, 2024 05:16PM
At least their grammar's better.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: January 19, 2024 05:36PM
If a team wins home-ice advantage, that’s a lot fairer than a team purchasing home-ice advantage by hosting a regional. Another reason regionals on campus is fairer is that the selection committee won’t move teams around to maximize attendance like they do now. No more 3rd overall Cornell having to face BU in Massachusetts like in 2018. No more higher seed Cornell having to face four-seed Providence at Providence because Providence purchased a regional that year.adamw
Trotsky
It is the right thing to do. The temptation will be to make the games best-of-three. TBH, I'd back that as well. Anything to stop the factory schools with big rinks from buying their way to the F4, the way it is now.
This makes no sense, Mr. I Hate Sports Journalists.
The factory schools with big rinks are all the ones clamoring to go back to campus - precisely because they DON'T have an advantage currently. The reason the ECAC schools of the world want neutral site Regionals, is to avoid the double whammy of not getting home games vs. big schools in the regular season, and then having to go to their arenas for NCAA games.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: January 19, 2024 05:40PM
I would doubt that teams hosting would get much gate beyond cost to host.. the NCAA is gonna take most of the money.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: January 19, 2024 06:41PM
They can sell booze now tho.upprdeck
I would doubt that teams hosting would get much gate beyond cost to host.. the NCAA is gonna take most of the money.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: January 19, 2024 06:44PM
Trotsky
They can sell booze now tho.upprdeck
I would doubt that teams hosting would get much gate beyond cost to host.. the NCAA is gonna take most of the money.
Do they sell it like cornell does or can you purchase any where in the arena?
And who knows what rules the will come up with if they do it on who keeps the money
the BBALL the schools dont keep it all. They even limit what the can sell. I didnt think you could buy beer at ncaa championships? Has that changed too?
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: January 19, 2024 06:45PM
I was assuming that was part of the change.upprdeck
I didnt think you could buy beer at ncaa championships? Has that changed too?
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: January 19, 2024 11:08PM
Our PWR position is so tenuous. We are 16th, not particularly close to 15th, and most of the teams in the top 15 are perennial powers like BU, BC, Providence, Minnesota, UMich, Wisconsin, Quinnipiac, NoDak, Denver. Our schedule is so soft the rest of the way because the ECAC has done so poorly thus far. And perhaps scariest of all is that we still have at least 3 games vs Clarkson and Harvard whom I think (especially in the case of Harvard) are considerably better than their ranking suggests. Winning tomorrow night will go a very long way…
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: January 19, 2024 11:10PM
Oh, and forgot to mention: our opponent we want to win most (because we’ve played them three times) is ASU, whom I think is *worse* than their ranking suggests and is currently locked in a tight battle vs Augustana…
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: ugarte (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: January 19, 2024 11:13PM
they blew it! gave up the GWG in the final minute after tying the game at 4.BearLover
Oh, and forgot to mention: our opponent we want to win most (because we’ve played them three times) is ASU, whom I think is *worse* than their ranking suggests and is currently locked in a tight battle vs Augustana…
___________________________
quality tweets | bluesky (twitter 2) | ALAB Series podcast | Other podcasts and writing
quality tweets | bluesky (twitter 2) | ALAB Series podcast | Other podcasts and writing
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: January 20, 2024 12:36AM
Hard to win when you're playing supes. Assist on the game winner went to Tony Stark.ugarte
they blew it! gave up the GWG in the final minute after tying the game at 4.BearLover
Oh, and forgot to mention: our opponent we want to win most (because we’ve played them three times) is ASU, whom I think is *worse* than their ranking suggests and is currently locked in a tight battle vs Augustana…
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/20/2024 12:36AM by Trotsky.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: adamw (162.245.150.---)
Date: January 20, 2024 01:10PM
Trotsky
adamw
Trotsky
It is the right thing to do. The temptation will be to make the games best-of-three. TBH, I'd back that as well. Anything to stop the factory schools with big rinks from buying their way to the F4, the way it is now.
This makes no sense, Mr. I Hate Sports Journalists.
The factory schools with big rinks are all the ones clamoring to go back to campus - precisely because they DON'T have an advantage currently. The reason the ECAC schools of the world want neutral site Regionals, is to avoid the double whammy of not getting home games vs. big schools in the regular season, and then having to go to their arenas for NCAA games.
It makes perfect sense.
It's only an advantage if they finish top 8. If they don't, devil take the hindmost.
If North Dakota earns a home seed then I am fine with that. What I am not fine with is them or Michigan or Minnesota getting a defacto home game as a 13 because they ponied up the cash to host locally. That's bribery, er, lobbying, er "development" ahem.
I am surprised ND wants this, but I assume they just want the larger gate. Sometimes the asshole is right.
It's a free country, you're allowed to be aggressively wrong.
Your comment about teams buying hosting and getting unfair "home games" - literally only applies to one team - North Dakota. No one else does it. And North Dakota fans would literally go anywhere to see their team play, so it doesn't matter. If Cornell hosted North Dakota in an NCAA game, there would probably be more North Dakota fans in the building - given that it's spring break and given the smaller crowds you always see at home arenas for playoff games. North Dakota played BC at MSG one year, and the building was packed with North Dakota fans. When they host Regionals, it's at places hours away from Grand Forks. Doesn't matter. And this "problem" of North Dakota hosting could be solved in other ways.
They stopped allowing Michigan to host at Yost 20 years ago, for this reason. Michigan hasn't hosted a Regional since and never has the kind of advantage you're referring to.
Again - there's a reason all the B10/NCHC schools want on-campus Regionals ... and all the ECAC/Atlantic/etc... coaches do not.
Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 01/20/2024 01:15PM by adamw.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: January 20, 2024 01:23PM
Not relevant. Hosting the regional 3 hours from your building is buying a home game. It does not have to be on campus.adamw
They stopped allowing Michigan to host at Yost 20 years ago, for this reason. Michigan hasn't hosted a Regional since.
I don't know why your back is up on an opinion like this. The fuck cares? The NC$$ will do whatever generates the most revenue; fairness will have zero impact. I prefer one way and have defended it. You prefer the other. Making it personal is... odd.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/20/2024 01:25PM by Trotsky.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Al DeFlorio (---.hsd1.ma.comcast.net)
Date: January 21, 2024 07:40PM
Somehow sneaked into 15th in pairwise today: [www.collegehockeynews.com]
___________________________
Al DeFlorio '65
Al DeFlorio '65
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (---.229.167.165.res-cmts.sm3.ptd.net)
Date: January 21, 2024 08:37PM
Al DeFlorio
Somehow sneaked into 15th in pairwise today: [www.collegehockeynews.com]
At this point we need to be at least in 14th.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: January 21, 2024 08:46PM
Latest Playoff Status.com Cornell probabilities:
.97 ECAC QF .82 ECAC SF .51 ECAC F .27 ECAC Champions .52 NCAA Bid .22 NCAA QF .10 NCAA SF .04 NCAA F .02 NCAA Champions
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: January 21, 2024 09:50PM
UNH losing today helped us.
Mich plays Wisc this weekend.. a sweep would help us there
Mich plays Wisc this weekend.. a sweep would help us there
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: adamw (---.hsd1.co.comcast.net)
Date: January 26, 2024 09:48PM
Trotsky
Not relevant. Hosting the regional 3 hours from your building is buying a home game. It does not have to be on campus.adamw
They stopped allowing Michigan to host at Yost 20 years ago, for this reason. Michigan hasn't hosted a Regional since.
I don't know why your back is up on an opinion like this. The fuck cares? The NC$$ will do whatever generates the most revenue; fairness will have zero impact. I prefer one way and have defended it. You prefer the other. Making it personal is... odd.
Where did I make it personal? You said all sportswriters were effectively terrible, so I made a joke about it - that was pretty much the extent of it. Otherwise, I pointed out all the ways your perceptions were ... incorrect. If those perceptions are driving your opinion, you should at least be accurate. The fact that the NCAA/Hockey Committee hasn't made this switch, should tell you that they don't only care about money. Unless one's only goal is to throw clever verbal bombs without regard for accuracy.
At least 75% of current head coaches want neutral sites - and the No. 1 advocate for that is Cornell's.
And here's my article on the topic.
[www.collegehockeynews.com]
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: marty (---.res.spectrum.com)
Date: January 26, 2024 10:12PM
With 6 goals since 11:00 in the second it's now 5-4 St. Cloud over Nebraska Omaha setting up what could be an exciting 3rd period.
(St. Cloud is 13 in the pairwise.)
(St. Cloud is 13 in the pairwise.)
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Scersk '97 (104.28.39.---)
Date: January 26, 2024 10:14PM
adamw
Unless one's only goal is to throw clever verbal bombs without regard for accuracy.
Sir, this is a Wendy’s.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: marty (---.res.spectrum.com)
Date: January 26, 2024 10:46PM
marty
With 6 goals since 11:00 in the second it's now 5-4 St. Cloud over Nebraska Omaha setting up what could be an exciting 3rd period.
(St. Cloud is 13 in the pairwise.)
Now 6-6 with 9 minutes left in regulation.
Omaha wins in OT on a PPG.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/26/2024 11:07PM by marty.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: January 27, 2024 03:07AM
adamw
You said all sportswriters were effectively terrible
At least they're effective.
I apologize for smearing sportswriters. As a baby, I had my candy lifted by Grantland Rice.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: February 08, 2024 09:21AM
Adam's CHN podcast talks about the home NC$$ seed issue this week. I forgot how amazingly smooth his voice is, it's a pleasure to listen to him.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/08/2024 09:22AM by Trotsky.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: BearLover (198.232.62.---)
Date: February 08, 2024 10:49AM
Wow, the Denver coach sounded smart and made some persuasive arguments. After listening to that, I am firmly in the camp of playing the first two rounds of the tournament at schools. Though Carle made a number of good points, one key takeaway was when he said he would much rather play Minnesota at Minnesota than in an empty neutral arena. He thought it would be a much better experience for fans and players, and that it wasn’t a disadvantage. He also noted that basketball is the ~only college sport that plays its tournament at neutral sites.Trotsky
Adam's CHN podcast talks about the home NC$$ seed issue this week. I forgot how amazingly smooth his voice is, it's a pleasure to listen to him.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/08/2024 10:54AM by BearLover.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Robb (107.72.162.---)
Date: February 08, 2024 12:23PM
He’s being self-serving and disingenuous. He’s one of just a handful of coaches who could have a reasonable expectation of finishing in the top 8 more often than not.BearLover
Wow, the Denver coach sounded smart and made some persuasive arguments. After listening to that, I am firmly in the camp of playing the first two rounds of the tournament at schools. Though Carle made a number of good points, one key takeaway was when he said he would much rather play Minnesota at Minnesota than in an empty neutral arena. He thought it would be a much better experience for fans and players, and that it wasn’t a disadvantage. He also noted that basketball is the ~only college sport that plays its tournament at neutral sites.Trotsky
Adam's CHN podcast talks about the home NC$$ seed issue this week. I forgot how amazingly smooth his voice is, it's a pleasure to listen to him.
He can say that there’s no disadvantage, but the numbers show that he is dead wrong. There is so much persistent, pervasive home ice advantage that the NCAA baked a correction for it into the RPI formula.
He’s just rationalizing something that will help him more often than it will hurt him. Don’t pay attention to his arguments, pay attention to his incentives.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: February 08, 2024 02:45PM
Its baked into the formula for sure.. but is it really a thing?
Why do pro sports teams get an advantage of home field? What does NCAA hockey do it for the most part until the get to the final 16?
Is it a huge advantage for just a small one?
What is cornells advantage at home vs away this year for example?
Better teams teams probably do better home & away & neutral?
Why do pro sports teams get an advantage of home field? What does NCAA hockey do it for the most part until the get to the final 16?
Is it a huge advantage for just a small one?
What is cornells advantage at home vs away this year for example?
Better teams teams probably do better home & away & neutral?
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: February 08, 2024 02:52PM
Robb
Don’t pay attention to his arguments, pay attention to his incentives.
That's here someplace.
Just because I have an incentive for a law against murder doesn't mean any argument I make about murder is worthless.
Edit: 18. The Argument from Motives
(also Questioning Motives): The fallacy of declaring a standpoint or argument invalid solely because of the evil, corrupt or questionable motives of the one making the claim. E.g., "Bin Laden wanted us to withdraw from Afghanistan, so we have to keep up the fight!" Even evil people with the most corrupt motives sometimes say the truth (and even good people with the highest and purest motives are often wrong or mistaken). A variety of the Ad Hominem argument. The opposite side of this fallacy is falsely justifying or excusing evil or vicious actions because of the perpetrator's aparent purity of motives or lack of malice. (E.g., "Sure, she may have beaten her children bloody now and again but she was a highly educated, ambitious professional woman at the end of her rope, deprived of adult conversation and stuck between four walls for years on end with a bunch of screaming, fighting brats, doing the best she could with what little she had. How can you stand there and accuse her of child abuse?" ) See also Moral Licensing.
I find Carle's arguments convincing, and I stand to potentially lose by them since Cornell spends a lot of time at 9-16.
I will point out however that I may have crass motives since we would potentially have had home seed through both rounds in 2003, 2005, 2018, and 2020. Who's up for 4 Frozen Fours?
Home rounds by year: (a 0 is a first round away game)
Home rounds / Actual Advances
1996 0 0 1997 0 1, home better 2002 0 1, neutral better 2003 2 2 2005 1 1 2006 1 1 2009 0 1, neutral better 2010 1 0, home better 2012 0 1, neutral better 2017 0 0 2018 2 0, home WAY better 2019 0 1, neutral better 2020 2 URGE TO KILL RISING 2023 0 1, neutral better
Neutral seed better, 5 times to 3.
So I have pure motives and I say bring the boys back home.
Edited 8 time(s). Last edit at 02/08/2024 03:14PM by Trotsky.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: February 08, 2024 03:16PM
I'm curious, is Schafer on the record? If he has a strong lean then fine I'm with him.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: pfibiger (---.res.spectrum.com)
Date: February 09, 2024 06:27AM
Trotsky
I'm curious, is Schafer on the record? If he has a strong lean then fine I'm with him.
Literally one page back when you and Adam were sniping at each other he said:
“ At least 75% of current head coaches want neutral sites - and the No. 1 advocate for that is Cornell's.”
I’m not sure if that counts as on the record — but with Adam’s role I’m sure they’ve discussed it. And given Schafer’s feelings about “fairness” re home and home, this seems on brand.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/09/2024 06:28AM by pfibiger.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: February 09, 2024 08:30AM
Reading is among my skills diminishing with age.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: The Rancor (---.hsd1.pa.comcast.net)
Date: February 09, 2024 09:28AM
Maybe with home ice on the line, we get better scheduling... maybe even a proper number of games played each season... better SOS... Better RPI... I'd rather have the odd chance at winning in Denver with the nearly same chance of winning at Lynah.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: marty (---.res.spectrum.com)
Date: February 09, 2024 09:41AM
The Rancor
Maybe with home ice on the line, we get better scheduling... maybe even a proper number of games played each season... better SOS... Better RPI... I'd rather have the odd chance at winning in Denver with the nearly same chance of winning at Lynah.
Why would the Ivy League change their idiotic restriction on games played? We can dream.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: February 09, 2024 09:56AM
If we don't have that brand discriminator parents might actually start comparing without regard to the label.
That would be bad.
That would be bad.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-235-211.myvzw.com)
Date: February 09, 2024 09:57AM
The Rancor
Maybe with home ice on the line, we get better scheduling... maybe even a proper number of games played each season... better SOS... Better RPI... I'd rather have the odd chance at winning in Denver with the nearly same chance of winning at Lynah.
I mean we've been trying. We played a lot of good teams this year out of conference. Hard to blame us for perennial contender UMD being suddenly meh two years in a row.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: February 09, 2024 10:00AM
The killer is the conference. These things are cyclical. Last year there were 4 ECAC NC$$ bids.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: February 09, 2024 10:02AM
So if players play less games does that mean they get a pay cut to play in the Ivys now?
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Weder (---.hsd1.va.comcast.net)
Date: February 09, 2024 10:19AM
I just noticed that the baseball team's schedule is bumping up to 53 games this season (they played 35 last year). The NCAA limit is 56. Ivy basketball plays up to the NCAA limit too. Is there any logic to which sports are allowed to essentially play the max and which ones aren't?
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: February 09, 2024 10:24AM
No real reason why the ivies punish the sports teams in multiple sports.
Fball/Hockey/lax play less and start later?
Why does basketball play a pretty normal schedule?
They also limit practice time during the week, which hurts as well.
Fball/Hockey/lax play less and start later?
Why does basketball play a pretty normal schedule?
They also limit practice time during the week, which hurts as well.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/09/2024 10:25AM by upprdeck.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: February 09, 2024 01:59PM
Are you sure we don't have 20 rainouts a year?Weder
I just noticed that the baseball team's schedule is bumping up to 53 games this season (they played 35 last year)
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: February 09, 2024 03:09PM
This logic doesn’t make sense though. The entire point of RPI is to compare two teams who play different schedules. RPI is a function of SOS and win%. The better our opponents, the better our SOS but the lower our win%. If RPI accurately measures how good a team is, then team X in Hockey East and team Y in the CCHA should be on equal footing.The Rancor
Maybe with home ice on the line, we get better scheduling... maybe even a proper number of games played each season... better SOS... Better RPI... I'd rather have the odd chance at winning in Denver with the nearly same chance of winning at Lynah.
I get the point about playing more games/starting the season earlier, but does this actually impact RPI over the course of a season? It’s leaves our RPI based on a smaller sample of games, but that shouldn’t hurt us all else being equal. It probably disadvantages us the first weekend of the season against a team that already has games under its belt, but on the other hand, Cornell has the benefit of focusing its preparation on that singular team for weeks, and Cornell can go into its opening weekend without injuries. Basically what I’m saying is that the silly Ivy League restrictions on our schedule shouldn’t impact our RPI much if at all.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: February 09, 2024 03:24PM
I guess the question would be where would a team be ranked with a great record in a bad league with a bad OC schedule. Does it capture who the best team is or who has played the best schedule and done mostly well.
Say we had 7 more games against just avg teams and went 4-2 to 6-0. would our RPI be higher. Given the data you could compute it by creating a generic schedule. Say we played Canisus or Niagara 4 times..
And ask the coaches if playing 3-4-5-6 more games would help the team develop as well?
Winning more games good, losing more games bad.
Cornell has had decent records but also on the bottom the PWR needing some help a ton.
this yr we might have a 4-5 loss season and not get in. would more games have hurt the good teams probably not.. might it have helped the avg teams who knows
all close to not getting or so
20-10
18-10
solidly in
25-5
23-2
21-8
20-10
not in
16-11
Say we had 7 more games against just avg teams and went 4-2 to 6-0. would our RPI be higher. Given the data you could compute it by creating a generic schedule. Say we played Canisus or Niagara 4 times..
And ask the coaches if playing 3-4-5-6 more games would help the team develop as well?
Winning more games good, losing more games bad.
Cornell has had decent records but also on the bottom the PWR needing some help a ton.
this yr we might have a 4-5 loss season and not get in. would more games have hurt the good teams probably not.. might it have helped the avg teams who knows
all close to not getting or so
20-10
18-10
solidly in
25-5
23-2
21-8
20-10
not in
16-11
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: adamw (---.hsd1.co.comcast.net)
Date: February 09, 2024 08:42PM
Trotsky
Adam's CHN podcast talks about the home NC$$ seed issue this week. I forgot how amazingly smooth his voice is, it's a pleasure to listen to him.
Your transparent attempts at buttering me up now will not work
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: adamw (---.hsd1.co.comcast.net)
Date: February 09, 2024 08:47PM
BearLover
Wow, the Denver coach sounded smart and made some persuasive arguments. After listening to that, I am firmly in the camp of playing the first two rounds of the tournament at schools. Though Carle made a number of good points, one key takeaway was when he said he would much rather play Minnesota at Minnesota than in an empty neutral arena. He thought it would be a much better experience for fans and players, and that it wasn’t a disadvantage. He also noted that basketball is the ~only college sport that plays its tournament at neutral sites.Trotsky
Adam's CHN podcast talks about the home NC$$ seed issue this week. I forgot how amazingly smooth his voice is, it's a pleasure to listen to him.
As I pointed out in my follow up article today ...
[collegehockeynews.com]
this is not entirely true ... Men's basketball is the only other sport that plays its ENTIRE tournament neutral - but many other sports have many rounds where it's neutral. Just to be clear.
As for the 29 games for Ivies -- one of the dumbest things in the world going on right now. What's the rationale? That it takes away too much from school? Well - why then can Ivies play 2 consecutive weekends of exhibition games? What in god's name is the difference if those two weekends were spent playing non-league games?
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: February 09, 2024 08:59PM
Sure they will.adamw
Trotsky
Adam's CHN podcast talks about the home NC$$ seed issue this week. I forgot how amazingly smooth his voice is, it's a pleasure to listen to him.
Your transparent attempts at buttering me up now will not work
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: February 09, 2024 09:31PM
Cornell down to 15 in the Pairwise.
But—we are now within striking distance of the four teams directly ahead of us. (CC is now within striking distance of us, though.)
But—we are now within striking distance of the four teams directly ahead of us. (CC is now within striking distance of us, though.)
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: upprdeck (38.77.26.---)
Date: February 09, 2024 09:46PM
looking ahead. Prov and mass have multiple games vs Maine/BC/BU.. hope for the best there.
St cloud/WMU play each other twice.
Mich has one more with MSU and 2 with Minn. Every little loss helps
Conn outshot Umaass tonight but couldnt pull that game out. Hope for the split tomorrow.
St cloud/WMU play each other twice.
Mich has one more with MSU and 2 with Minn. Every little loss helps
Conn outshot Umaass tonight but couldnt pull that game out. Hope for the split tomorrow.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: February 09, 2024 09:48PM
That UConn result stings.upprdeck
looking ahead. Prov and mass have multiple games vs Maine/BC/BU.. hope for the best there.
St cloud/WMU play each other twice.
Mich has one more with MSU and 2 with Minn. Every little loss helps
Conn outshot Umaass tonight but couldnt pull that game out. Hope for the split tomorrow.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: February 09, 2024 10:22PM
St. Cloud leads us 1-0strictly on RPI. In record vs common opponents we are both 1.000, since we are both 2-0 vs UMD.
St. Cloud is at UMD the final weekend of the RS.
If they get anything less than a sweep, we take common opponents. I guess it comes down to RPI, but if we were to tie in RPI...
St. Cloud is at UMD the final weekend of the RS.
If they get anything less than a sweep, we take common opponents. I guess it comes down to RPI, but if we were to tie in RPI...
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: February 09, 2024 10:30PM
Teams ahead of us in PWR that we are beating in record vs common opponents right now:
2. North Dakota 7. Denver 8. Minnesota 9. Quinnipiac 10. Western Michigan 11. UMass 12. Providence
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: BearLover (---.nycmny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: February 09, 2024 10:32PM
Basically, we are 2-0 vs NCHC and 1-0-1 vs HE.Trotsky
Teams ahead of us in PWR that we are beating in record vs common opponents right now:2. North Dakota 7. Denver 8. Minnesota 9. Quinnipiac 10. Western Michigan 11. UMass 12. Providence
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Dafatone (---.sub-174-235-211.myvzw.com)
Date: February 09, 2024 11:08PM
Common opponent plain doesn't matter unless we also beat them head to head or we wind up tying in RPI, which almost never happens.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Beeeej (Moderator)
Date: February 09, 2024 11:18PM
Arizona State’s win pushes us back up into 14th… by 0.0001.
___________________________
Beeeej, Esq.
"Cornell isn't an organization. It's a loose affiliation of independent fiefdoms united by a common hockey team."
- Steve Worona
Beeeej, Esq.
"Cornell isn't an organization. It's a loose affiliation of independent fiefdoms united by a common hockey team."
- Steve Worona
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (181.48.178.---)
Date: February 10, 2024 04:57AM
Q's loss stung (like a deer tick?). They dropped from 7 to 9 and we lost bonus points.
Gives me mixed feelings. I want the bastards to lose simply because they're assholes, but their winning helps us if they can move up in the PWR.
What to do? What to do?
Gives me mixed feelings. I want the bastards to lose simply because they're assholes, but their winning helps us if they can move up in the PWR.
What to do? What to do?
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: February 10, 2024 09:10AM
What to do is catch them in ComOpp, beat them in Placid to flip the comparison, and jump them in PWR.Jeff Hopkins '82
What to do? What to do?
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: February 10, 2024 09:18AM
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: The Rancor (---.hsd1.pa.comcast.net)
Date: February 12, 2024 04:53PM
BearLover
This logic doesn’t make sense though. The entire point of RPI is to compare two teams who play different schedules. RPI is a function of SOS and win%. The better our opponents, the better our SOS but the lower our win%. If RPI accurately measures how good a team is, then team X in Hockey East and team Y in the CCHA should be on equal footing.The Rancor
Maybe with home ice on the line, we get better scheduling... maybe even a proper number of games played each season... better SOS... Better RPI... I'd rather have the odd chance at winning in Denver with the nearly same chance of winning at Lynah.
I get the point about playing more games/starting the season earlier, but does this actually impact RPI over the course of a season? It’s leaves our RPI based on a smaller sample of games, but that shouldn’t hurt us all else being equal. It probably disadvantages us the first weekend of the season against a team that already has games under its belt, but on the other hand, Cornell has the benefit of focusing its preparation on that singular team for weeks, and Cornell can go into its opening weekend without injuries. Basically what I’m saying is that the silly Ivy League restrictions on our schedule shouldn’t impact our RPI much if at all.
I understand what you are saying. My point, or hope really, is that with more than 29 games, some of them might be against a Wisconsin or Denver, but just as likely it would be a Niagara or Canisius. A series against one or two more teams from conferences we don't always see.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: Trotsky (---.washdc.fios.verizon.net)
Date: February 16, 2024 09:38PM
We're alone in 11th... in KRACH.
Re: Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs
Posted by: George64 (---.res.spectrum.com)
Date: March 30, 2024 07:35PM
All and all, not bad for a rebuilding year! Thank you for an exciting season! Let’s Go Red!
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