Odds of winning 2024 NCAAs

An oddsmaking site (betting site) says Cornell men have the 11th best odds of winning the NCAAs (22/1), with North Dakota the favorite and Quinnipiac the only more highly regarded ECAC team. Cornell women have the seventh best odds of winning, with TOSU favored and ECAC teams Colgate, Clarkson and Quinnipiac rated above Cornell. From the site sportsbetting dotAG (Antigua and Barbuda)

NCAA Men's Hockey Championship                 
North Dakota                 7/1
Wisconsin                   15/2
Boston College              17/2
Minnesota                    9/1
Boston University           10/1
Denver                      10/1
Maine                       12/1
Quinnipiac                  12/1
Michigan                    16/1
Michigan State              16/1
Cornell                     22/1
Notre Dame                  25/1
Penn State                  35/1
Providence                  35/1
Saint Cloud State           35/1
Western Michigan            35/1
Minnesota State             40/1
New Hampshire               45/1
Arizona State               50/1
Harvard                     50/1
Minnesota Duluth            50/1
Ohio State                  50/1
Merrimack                   60/1
Nebraska Omaha              60/1
Northeastern                60/1
UMass Amherst               60/1
UMass Lowell                60/1
Connecticut                 75/1
Michigan Tech               75/1
Augustana                  100/1
Bemidji State              100/1
Colorado College           100/1
                       
NCAA Women's Hockey Championship            
Ohio State                  23/4
Wisconsin                    6/1
Colgate                     17/2
Clarkson                    10/1
Quinnipiac                  14/1
Minnesota                   18/1
Cornell                     20/1
Northeastern                20/1
Boston College              25/1
Mercyhurst                  25/1
Minnesota Duluth            25/1
Penn State                  25/1
Rensselaer                  25/1
Saint Cloud State           25/1
St. Lawrence                25/1
Vermont                     25/1
Yale                        25/1
Boston University           35/1
Minnesota State             40/1
RIT                         40/1
St. Anselm                  40/1
Stonehill                   40/1
Assumption University       45/1
New Hampshire               45/1
Lindenwood                  50/1
Long Island                 50/1
Maine                       50/1
Connecticut                 75/1
Robert Morris               75/1
Saint Thomas                75/1
Franklin Pierce            100/1
Providence                 100/1
Sacred Heart               100/1
Syracuse                   100/1

If this means I have only to wait another 22 years, I might make it.

It's hard to believe that the RPI women have a 25-1 shot of winning, tied for fifth in the ECAC.

ursusminor
It's hard to believe that the RPI women have a 25-1 shot of winning, tied for fifth in the ECAC.

It's hard to believe that the odds makers will make money if a long shot wins either title. Also I'm wondering if BearLover has wagered.

Those odds don't look right.

Both Bovada and. DraftKings list us at +3500 (36:1).

abmarks
Those odds don't look right.

Both Bovada and. DraftKings list us at +3500 (36:1).

Then that is off by a factor of about 2 which is not nearly as inaccurate as the RPI women's odds given. When I posted this on the RPI women's thread on USCHO, another poster gave the RPI women's odds as 4,000,000 to one which seems much more accurate to me.

ursusminor
Then that is off by a factor of about 2 which is not nearly as inaccurate as the RPI women's odds given. When I posted this on the RPI women's thread on USCHO, another poster gave the RPI women's odds as 4,000,000 to one which seems much more accurate to me.

I had a physics professor who argued that despite the probabilistic essence of subatomic phenomenon, some things that were not logically impossible nevertheless were impossible. He gave the example of a tea kettle on the right front burner which suddenly reconstitutes itself on the left front burner because all particles happen to jump in exactly the same direction. That can't ever happen, because if you ever observe it the odds are for all purposes infinitely higher that you've had a psychotic break from reality and imagined it.

Trotsky

ursusminor
Then that is off by a factor of about 2 which is not nearly as inaccurate as the RPI women's odds given. When I posted this on the RPI women's thread on USCHO, another poster gave the RPI women's odds as 4,000,000 to one which seems much more accurate to me.

I had a physics professor who argued that despite the probabilistic essence of subatomic phenomenon, some things that were not logically impossible nevertheless were impossible. He gave the example of a tea kettle on the right front burner which suddenly reconstitutes itself on the left front burner because all particles happen to jump in exactly the same direction. That can't ever happen, because if you ever observe it the odds are for all purposes infinitely higher that you've had a psychotic break from reality and imagined it.

The same list posted on the RPI women's thread on USCHO gives the Harvard women's odds as 100 trillion to 1. That might be worth betting a penny or two even with Harvard's problems although the bookie would probably disappear.

These are PR mailings sent to anybody who's been in publishing and drawn a breath in the last couple years, with the sender's hope something will be written and mention the name of the oddsmaker. Which I did but not in the form of a direct link.

Trotsky

ursusminor
Then that is off by a factor of about 2 which is not nearly as inaccurate as the RPI women's odds given. When I posted this on the RPI women's thread on USCHO, another poster gave the RPI women's odds as 4,000,000 to one which seems much more accurate to me.

I had a physics professor who argued that despite the probabilistic essence of subatomic phenomenon, some things that were not logically impossible nevertheless were impossible. He gave the example of a tea kettle on the right front burner which suddenly reconstitutes itself on the left front burner because all particles happen to jump in exactly the same direction. That can't ever happen, because if you ever observe it the odds are for all purposes infinitely higher that you've had a psychotic break from reality and imagined it.

I've run into many walls. Never quantum tunneled.

Moved from ECAC thread:

The Rancor
I didn't want to start another thread, but feel free to move if in the wrong space:

NCAA Hockey Regionals to Home Sites

It is the right thing to do. The temptation will be to make the games best-of-three. TBH, I'd back that as well. Anything to stop the factory schools with big rinks from buying their way to the F4, the way it is now.

Cornell since 2018:

2018 14 Princeton at 3 Cornell
2019 11 Cornell at 6 Northeastern
2020 16 somebody at 1 Cornell
2023 13 Cornell at 4 Denver

The way the crowds are going down at regionals it makes sense.. They get a few crowds of 5k now they would 8 crowds of 4-15K.. Less travel for 8 teams as well. less money paid out to arenas.

The neutral site model simply hasn’t worked. Time for a change.

scoop85
The neutral site model simply hasn’t worked. Time for a change.

It worked fine when there were only 12 teams. That may have been the newness of the format or the fact that you knew you would see two of the teams advance to the Frozen Four. It also might have been that the the era of live sports attendance hadn't started to wane.

I felt more excitement then too. As an alternative to ditching the neutral regionals could there be two locations with eight teams at each?

Trotsky
Moved from ECAC thread:

The Rancor
I didn't want to start another thread, but feel free to move if in the wrong space:

NCAA Hockey Regionals to Home Sites

It is the right thing to do. The temptation will be to make the games best-of-three. TBH, I'd back that as well. Anything to stop the factory schools with big rinks from buying their way to the F4, the way it is now.

Cornell since 2018:

2018 14 Princeton at 3 Cornell
2019 11 Cornell at 6 Northeastern
2020 16 somebody at 1 Cornell
2023 13 Cornell at 4 Denver

In 2018 we played BU.

BearLover
In 2018 we played BU.

These are the pairings that a straight 1/16 would have yielded.

And then you have instances like in 2015 where Providence basically gets two home games in the regional despite being a low seed and doesn't need to travel far for the FF--to a city they visit most seasons no less

marty

scoop85
The neutral site model simply hasn’t worked. Time for a change.

It worked fine when there were only 12 teams. That may have been the newness of the format or the fact that you knew you would see two of the teams advance to the Frozen Four. It also might have been that the the era of live sports attendance hadn't started to wane.

I felt more excitement then too. As an alternative to ditching the neutral regionals could there be two locations with eight teams at each?

In the 12 team era, there were two regionals of six teams. It's a larger fan pool to pull from.

Now that there's a day off between regional semi and final, I think they should return to two regions. Eight teams at each. If the ncaa could find venues that are permanent or semi permanent hosts, all the better to allow folks to plan travel, build traditions, etc.

Two games Thursday night. Two Fri. Region finals Saturday night and Sunday afternoon.

Sadly, I think on campus playoffs would likely suffer vs regular season attendance for two reasons: additional tickets to buy (we see it with ecac home series) and spring break attrition depending on the calendar.

Of course I'm somewhat biased in that from CT it's usually a lot easier for me to get to 3/4s of regionals than Ithaca. Especially ithaca potentially two weeks in a row.

I think home venues would work better than and ECAC venue does

one thing going for it is better opp.. much like Minn Dul coming in had a nice crowd..

The energy in the ECAC is because people plan on Cornell winning so often only show for the Sat game thinking that will be it to clinch.

The energy of a real imp playoff game would be crazy i suspect.

Chris '03
Now that there's a day off between regional semi and final

This is the fucking killer of the regionals. It makes it impossible to attend if you have a job or classes so, hey, welcome retirees!

upprdeck
The energy of a real imp playoff game would be crazy i suspect.

This is why they should do both (1) home sites and (2) one and done.

Can you imagine an NCAA game at Lynah? You want to finally restore the Golden Age of fan engagement? That will do it.

And what a cherry on top for the season. Going out to Lake Placid for the ECACs and then having the team get to come back home and play a super meaningful game. Makes me hard just thinking about it, and with my blood pressure meds that's a miracle.

Trotsky
It is the right thing to do. The temptation will be to make the games best-of-three. TBH, I'd back that as well. Anything to stop the factory schools with big rinks from buying their way to the F4, the way it is now.

This makes no sense, Mr. I Hate Sports Journalists.

The factory schools with big rinks are all the ones clamoring to go back to campus - precisely because they DON'T have an advantage currently. The reason the ECAC schools of the world want neutral site Regionals, is to avoid the double whammy of not getting home games vs. big schools in the regular season, and then having to go to their arenas for NCAA games.

adamw

Trotsky
It is the right thing to do. The temptation will be to make the games best-of-three. TBH, I'd back that as well. Anything to stop the factory schools with big rinks from buying their way to the F4, the way it is now.

This makes no sense, Mr. I Hate Sports Journalists.

The factory schools with big rinks are all the ones clamoring to go back to campus - precisely because they DON'T have an advantage currently. The reason the ECAC schools of the world want neutral site Regionals, is to avoid the double whammy of not getting home games vs. big schools in the regular season, and then having to go to their arenas for NCAA games.

It makes perfect sense.

It's only an advantage if they finish top 8. If they don't, devil take the hindmost.

If North Dakota earns a home seed then I am fine with that. What I am not fine with is them or Michigan or Minnesota getting a defacto home game as a 13 because they ponied up the cash to host locally. That's bribery, er, lobbying, er "development" ahem.

I am surprised ND wants this, but I assume they just want the larger gate. Sometimes the asshole is right.

adamw

Trotsky
It is the right thing to do. The temptation will be to make the games best-of-three. TBH, I'd back that as well. Anything to stop the factory schools with big rinks from buying their way to the F4, the way it is now.

This makes no sense, Mr. I Hate Sports Journalists.

The factory schools with big rinks are all the ones clamoring to go back to campus - precisely because they DON'T have an advantage currently. The reason the ECAC schools of the world want neutral site Regionals, is to avoid the double whammy of not getting home games vs. big schools in the regular season, and then having to go to their arenas for NCAA games.

In a bid to drift this thread into an irrelevant direction, I will point out that AI sports writers can be hated by all.

At least their grammar's better.

adamw

Trotsky
It is the right thing to do. The temptation will be to make the games best-of-three. TBH, I'd back that as well. Anything to stop the factory schools with big rinks from buying their way to the F4, the way it is now.

This makes no sense, Mr. I Hate Sports Journalists.

The factory schools with big rinks are all the ones clamoring to go back to campus - precisely because they DON'T have an advantage currently. The reason the ECAC schools of the world want neutral site Regionals, is to avoid the double whammy of not getting home games vs. big schools in the regular season, and then having to go to their arenas for NCAA games.

If a team wins home-ice advantage, that’s a lot fairer than a team purchasing home-ice advantage by hosting a regional. Another reason regionals on campus is fairer is that the selection committee won’t move teams around to maximize attendance like they do now. No more 3rd overall Cornell having to face BU in Massachusetts like in 2018. No more higher seed Cornell having to face four-seed Providence at Providence because Providence purchased a regional that year.

I would doubt that teams hosting would get much gate beyond cost to host.. the NCAA is gonna take most of the money.

upprdeck
I would doubt that teams hosting would get much gate beyond cost to host.. the NCAA is gonna take most of the money.

They can sell booze now tho.

Trotsky

upprdeck
I would doubt that teams hosting would get much gate beyond cost to host.. the NCAA is gonna take most of the money.

They can sell booze now tho.

Do they sell it like cornell does or can you purchase any where in the arena?

And who knows what rules the will come up with if they do it on who keeps the money

the BBALL the schools dont keep it all. They even limit what the can sell. I didnt think you could buy beer at ncaa championships? Has that changed too?

upprdeck
I didnt think you could buy beer at ncaa championships? Has that changed too?

I was assuming that was part of the change.

Our PWR position is so tenuous. We are 16th, not particularly close to 15th, and most of the teams in the top 15 are perennial powers like BU, BC, Providence, Minnesota, UMich, Wisconsin, Quinnipiac, NoDak, Denver. Our schedule is so soft the rest of the way because the ECAC has done so poorly thus far. And perhaps scariest of all is that we still have at least 3 games vs Clarkson and Harvard whom I think (especially in the case of Harvard) are considerably better than their ranking suggests. Winning tomorrow night will go a very long way…

Oh, and forgot to mention: our opponent we want to win most (because we’ve played them three times) is ASU, whom I think is *worse* than their ranking suggests and is currently locked in a tight battle vs Augustana…

BearLover
Oh, and forgot to mention: our opponent we want to win most (because we’ve played them three times) is ASU, whom I think is *worse* than their ranking suggests and is currently locked in a tight battle vs Augustana…

they blew it! gave up the GWG in the final minute after tying the game at 4.

ugarte

BearLover
Oh, and forgot to mention: our opponent we want to win most (because we’ve played them three times) is ASU, whom I think is *worse* than their ranking suggests and is currently locked in a tight battle vs Augustana…

they blew it! gave up the GWG in the final minute after tying the game at 4.

Hard to win when you're playing supes. Assist on the game winner went to Tony Stark.

Trotsky

adamw

Trotsky
It is the right thing to do. The temptation will be to make the games best-of-three. TBH, I'd back that as well. Anything to stop the factory schools with big rinks from buying their way to the F4, the way it is now.

This makes no sense, Mr. I Hate Sports Journalists.

The factory schools with big rinks are all the ones clamoring to go back to campus - precisely because they DON'T have an advantage currently. The reason the ECAC schools of the world want neutral site Regionals, is to avoid the double whammy of not getting home games vs. big schools in the regular season, and then having to go to their arenas for NCAA games.

It makes perfect sense.

It's only an advantage if they finish top 8. If they don't, devil take the hindmost.

If North Dakota earns a home seed then I am fine with that. What I am not fine with is them or Michigan or Minnesota getting a defacto home game as a 13 because they ponied up the cash to host locally. That's bribery, er, lobbying, er "development" ahem.

I am surprised ND wants this, but I assume they just want the larger gate. Sometimes the asshole is right.

It's a free country, you're allowed to be aggressively wrong.

Your comment about teams buying hosting and getting unfair "home games" - literally only applies to one team - North Dakota. No one else does it. And North Dakota fans would literally go anywhere to see their team play, so it doesn't matter. If Cornell hosted North Dakota in an NCAA game, there would probably be more North Dakota fans in the building - given that it's spring break and given the smaller crowds you always see at home arenas for playoff games. North Dakota played BC at MSG one year, and the building was packed with North Dakota fans. When they host Regionals, it's at places hours away from Grand Forks. Doesn't matter. And this "problem" of North Dakota hosting could be solved in other ways.

They stopped allowing Michigan to host at Yost 20 years ago, for this reason. Michigan hasn't hosted a Regional since and never has the kind of advantage you're referring to.

Again - there's a reason all the B10/NCHC schools want on-campus Regionals ... and all the ECAC/Atlantic/etc... coaches do not.

adamw
They stopped allowing Michigan to host at Yost 20 years ago, for this reason. Michigan hasn't hosted a Regional since.

Not relevant. Hosting the regional 3 hours from your building is buying a home game. It does not have to be on campus.

I don't know why your back is up on an opinion like this. The fuck cares? The NC$$ will do whatever generates the most revenue; fairness will have zero impact. I prefer one way and have defended it. You prefer the other. Making it personal is... odd.

Somehow sneaked into 15th in pairwise today: [www.collegehockeynews.com]

Al DeFlorio
Somehow sneaked into 15th in pairwise today: [www.collegehockeynews.com]

At this point we need to be at least in 14th.

Latest Playoff Status.com Cornell probabilities:

.97 ECAC QF
.82 ECAC SF
.51 ECAC F
.27 ECAC Champions

.52 NCAA Bid
.22 NCAA QF
.10 NCAA SF
.04 NCAA F
.02 NCAA Champions

UNH losing today helped us.

Mich plays Wisc this weekend.. a sweep would help us there

Trotsky

adamw
They stopped allowing Michigan to host at Yost 20 years ago, for this reason. Michigan hasn't hosted a Regional since.

Not relevant. Hosting the regional 3 hours from your building is buying a home game. It does not have to be on campus.

I don't know why your back is up on an opinion like this. The fuck cares? The NC$$ will do whatever generates the most revenue; fairness will have zero impact. I prefer one way and have defended it. You prefer the other. Making it personal is... odd.

Where did I make it personal? You said all sportswriters were effectively terrible, so I made a joke about it - that was pretty much the extent of it. Otherwise, I pointed out all the ways your perceptions were ... incorrect. If those perceptions are driving your opinion, you should at least be accurate. The fact that the NCAA/Hockey Committee hasn't made this switch, should tell you that they don't only care about money. Unless one's only goal is to throw clever verbal bombs without regard for accuracy.

At least 75% of current head coaches want neutral sites - and the No. 1 advocate for that is Cornell's.

And here's my article on the topic.
[www.collegehockeynews.com]

With 6 goals since 11:00 in the second it's now 5-4 St. Cloud over Nebraska Omaha setting up what could be an exciting 3rd period.

(St. Cloud is 13 in the pairwise.)

adamw
Unless one's only goal is to throw clever verbal bombs without regard for accuracy.

Sir, this is a Wendy’s.

marty
With 6 goals since 11:00 in the second it's now 5-4 St. Cloud over Nebraska Omaha setting up what could be an exciting 3rd period.

(St. Cloud is 13 in the pairwise.)

Now 6-6 with 9 minutes left in regulation.

Omaha wins in OT on a PPG.

adamw
You said all sportswriters were effectively terrible

At least they're effective.

I apologize for smearing sportswriters. As a baby, I had my candy lifted by Grantland Rice.

Adam's CHN podcast talks about the home NC$$ seed issue this week. I forgot how amazingly smooth his voice is, it's a pleasure to listen to him.

Trotsky
Adam's CHN podcast talks about the home NC$$ seed issue this week. I forgot how amazingly smooth his voice is, it's a pleasure to listen to him.

Wow, the Denver coach sounded smart and made some persuasive arguments. After listening to that, I am firmly in the camp of playing the first two rounds of the tournament at schools. Though Carle made a number of good points, one key takeaway was when he said he would much rather play Minnesota at Minnesota than in an empty neutral arena. He thought it would be a much better experience for fans and players, and that it wasn’t a disadvantage. He also noted that basketball is the ~only college sport that plays its tournament at neutral sites.

BearLover

Trotsky
Adam's CHN podcast talks about the home NC$$ seed issue this week. I forgot how amazingly smooth his voice is, it's a pleasure to listen to him.

Wow, the Denver coach sounded smart and made some persuasive arguments. After listening to that, I am firmly in the camp of playing the first two rounds of the tournament at schools. Though Carle made a number of good points, one key takeaway was when he said he would much rather play Minnesota at Minnesota than in an empty neutral arena. He thought it would be a much better experience for fans and players, and that it wasn’t a disadvantage. He also noted that basketball is the ~only college sport that plays its tournament at neutral sites.

He’s being self-serving and disingenuous. He’s one of just a handful of coaches who could have a reasonable expectation of finishing in the top 8 more often than not.

He can say that there’s no disadvantage, but the numbers show that he is dead wrong. There is so much persistent, pervasive home ice advantage that the NCAA baked a correction for it into the RPI formula.

He’s just rationalizing something that will help him more often than it will hurt him. Don’t pay attention to his arguments, pay attention to his incentives.

Its baked into the formula for sure.. but is it really a thing?

Why do pro sports teams get an advantage of home field? What does NCAA hockey do it for the most part until the get to the final 16?

Is it a huge advantage for just a small one?

What is cornells advantage at home vs away this year for example?

Better teams teams probably do better home & away & neutral?

Robb
Don’t pay attention to his arguments, pay attention to his incentives.

That's here someplace.

Just because I have an incentive for a law against murder doesn't mean any argument I make about murder is worthless.

Edit: 18. The Argument from Motives

(also Questioning Motives): The fallacy of declaring a standpoint or argument invalid solely because of the evil, corrupt or questionable motives of the one making the claim. E.g., "Bin Laden wanted us to withdraw from Afghanistan, so we have to keep up the fight!" Even evil people with the most corrupt motives sometimes say the truth (and even good people with the highest and purest motives are often wrong or mistaken). A variety of the Ad Hominem argument. The opposite side of this fallacy is falsely justifying or excusing evil or vicious actions because of the perpetrator's aparent purity of motives or lack of malice. (E.g., "Sure, she may have beaten her children bloody now and again but she was a highly educated, ambitious professional woman at the end of her rope, deprived of adult conversation and stuck between four walls for years on end with a bunch of screaming, fighting brats, doing the best she could with what little she had. How can you stand there and accuse her of child abuse?" ) See also Moral Licensing.

I find Carle's arguments convincing, and I stand to potentially lose by them since Cornell spends a lot of time at 9-16.

I will point out however that I may have crass motives since we would potentially have had home seed through both rounds in 2003, 2005, 2018, and 2020. Who's up for 4 Frozen Fours?


Home rounds by year: (a 0 is a first round away game)

Home rounds / Actual Advances

1996 0 0
1997 0 1, home better
2002 0 1, neutral better
2003 2 2
2005 1 1
2006 1 1
2009 0 1, neutral better
2010 1 0, home better
2012 0 1, neutral better
2017 0 0
2018 2 0, home WAY better
2019 0 1, neutral better
2020 2 URGE TO KILL RISING
2023 0 1, neutral better

Neutral seed better, 5 times to 3.

So I have pure motives and I say bring the boys back home.

I'm curious, is Schafer on the record? If he has a strong lean then fine I'm with him.

Trotsky
I'm curious, is Schafer on the record? If he has a strong lean then fine I'm with him.

Literally one page back when you and Adam were sniping at each other he said:

“ At least 75% of current head coaches want neutral sites - and the No. 1 advocate for that is Cornell's.”

I’m not sure if that counts as on the record — but with Adam’s role I’m sure they’ve discussed it. And given Schafer’s feelings about “fairness” re home and home, this seems on brand.

Reading is among my skills diminishing with age.

Maybe with home ice on the line, we get better scheduling... maybe even a proper number of games played each season... better SOS... Better RPI... I'd rather have the odd chance at winning in Denver with the nearly same chance of winning at Lynah.

The Rancor
Maybe with home ice on the line, we get better scheduling... maybe even a proper number of games played each season... better SOS... Better RPI... I'd rather have the odd chance at winning in Denver with the nearly same chance of winning at Lynah.

Why would the Ivy League change their idiotic restriction on games played? We can dream.

If we don't have that brand discriminator parents might actually start comparing without regard to the label.

That would be bad.

The Rancor
Maybe with home ice on the line, we get better scheduling... maybe even a proper number of games played each season... better SOS... Better RPI... I'd rather have the odd chance at winning in Denver with the nearly same chance of winning at Lynah.

I mean we've been trying. We played a lot of good teams this year out of conference. Hard to blame us for perennial contender UMD being suddenly meh two years in a row.

The killer is the conference. These things are cyclical. Last year there were 4 ECAC NC$$ bids.

So if players play less games does that mean they get a pay cut to play in the Ivys now?

I just noticed that the baseball team's schedule is bumping up to 53 games this season (they played 35 last year). The NCAA limit is 56. Ivy basketball plays up to the NCAA limit too. Is there any logic to which sports are allowed to essentially play the max and which ones aren't?

No real reason why the ivies punish the sports teams in multiple sports.

Fball/Hockey/lax play less and start later?

Why does basketball play a pretty normal schedule?

They also limit practice time during the week, which hurts as well.

Weder
I just noticed that the baseball team's schedule is bumping up to 53 games this season (they played 35 last year)

Are you sure we don't have 20 rainouts a year?

The Rancor
Maybe with home ice on the line, we get better scheduling... maybe even a proper number of games played each season... better SOS... Better RPI... I'd rather have the odd chance at winning in Denver with the nearly same chance of winning at Lynah.

This logic doesn’t make sense though. The entire point of RPI is to compare two teams who play different schedules. RPI is a function of SOS and win%. The better our opponents, the better our SOS but the lower our win%. If RPI accurately measures how good a team is, then team X in Hockey East and team Y in the CCHA should be on equal footing.

I get the point about playing more games/starting the season earlier, but does this actually impact RPI over the course of a season? It’s leaves our RPI based on a smaller sample of games, but that shouldn’t hurt us all else being equal. It probably disadvantages us the first weekend of the season against a team that already has games under its belt, but on the other hand, Cornell has the benefit of focusing its preparation on that singular team for weeks, and Cornell can go into its opening weekend without injuries. Basically what I’m saying is that the silly Ivy League restrictions on our schedule shouldn’t impact our RPI much if at all.

I guess the question would be where would a team be ranked with a great record in a bad league with a bad OC schedule. Does it capture who the best team is or who has played the best schedule and done mostly well.

Say we had 7 more games against just avg teams and went 4-2 to 6-0. would our RPI be higher. Given the data you could compute it by creating a generic schedule. Say we played Canisus or Niagara 4 times..

And ask the coaches if playing 3-4-5-6 more games would help the team develop as well?

Winning more games good, losing more games bad.

Cornell has had decent records but also on the bottom the PWR needing some help a ton.
this yr we might have a 4-5 loss season and not get in. would more games have hurt the good teams probably not.. might it have helped the avg teams who knows

all close to not getting or so
20-10
18-10


solidly in

25-5
23-2
21-8
20-10

not in
16-11

Trotsky
Adam's CHN podcast talks about the home NC$$ seed issue this week. I forgot how amazingly smooth his voice is, it's a pleasure to listen to him.

Your transparent attempts at buttering me up now will not work

BearLover

Trotsky
Adam's CHN podcast talks about the home NC$$ seed issue this week. I forgot how amazingly smooth his voice is, it's a pleasure to listen to him.

Wow, the Denver coach sounded smart and made some persuasive arguments. After listening to that, I am firmly in the camp of playing the first two rounds of the tournament at schools. Though Carle made a number of good points, one key takeaway was when he said he would much rather play Minnesota at Minnesota than in an empty neutral arena. He thought it would be a much better experience for fans and players, and that it wasn’t a disadvantage. He also noted that basketball is the ~only college sport that plays its tournament at neutral sites.

As I pointed out in my follow up article today ...

[collegehockeynews.com]

this is not entirely true ... Men's basketball is the only other sport that plays its ENTIRE tournament neutral - but many other sports have many rounds where it's neutral. Just to be clear.

As for the 29 games for Ivies -- one of the dumbest things in the world going on right now. What's the rationale? That it takes away too much from school? Well - why then can Ivies play 2 consecutive weekends of exhibition games? What in god's name is the difference if those two weekends were spent playing non-league games?

adamw

Trotsky
Adam's CHN podcast talks about the home NC$$ seed issue this week. I forgot how amazingly smooth his voice is, it's a pleasure to listen to him.

Your transparent attempts at buttering me up now will not work

Sure they will.

Cornell down to 15 in the Pairwise.
But—we are now within striking distance of the four teams directly ahead of us. (CC is now within striking distance of us, though.)

looking ahead. Prov and mass have multiple games vs Maine/BC/BU.. hope for the best there.

St cloud/WMU play each other twice.

Mich has one more with MSU and 2 with Minn. Every little loss helps

Conn outshot Umaass tonight but couldnt pull that game out. Hope for the split tomorrow.

upprdeck
looking ahead. Prov and mass have multiple games vs Maine/BC/BU.. hope for the best there.

St cloud/WMU play each other twice.

Mich has one more with MSU and 2 with Minn. Every little loss helps

Conn outshot Umaass tonight but couldnt pull that game out. Hope for the split tomorrow.

That UConn result stings.

St. Cloud leads us 1-0strictly on RPI. In record vs common opponents we are both 1.000, since we are both 2-0 vs UMD.

St. Cloud is at UMD the final weekend of the RS.

If they get anything less than a sweep, we take common opponents. I guess it comes down to RPI, but if we were to tie in RPI...

Teams ahead of us in PWR that we are beating in record vs common opponents right now:

 2. North Dakota
 7. Denver
 8. Minnesota
 9. Quinnipiac
10. Western Michigan
11. UMass
12. Providence

Trotsky
Teams ahead of us in PWR that we are beating in record vs common opponents right now:

 2. North Dakota
 7. Denver
 8. Minnesota
 9. Quinnipiac
10. Western Michigan
11. UMass
12. Providence

Basically, we are 2-0 vs NCHC and 1-0-1 vs HE.

Common opponent plain doesn't matter unless we also beat them head to head or we wind up tying in RPI, which almost never happens.

Arizona State’s win pushes us back up into 14th… by 0.0001.

Q's loss stung (like a deer tick?). They dropped from 7 to 9 and we lost bonus points.

Gives me mixed feelings. I want the bastards to lose simply because they're assholes, but their winning helps us if they can move up in the PWR.

What to do? What to do?

Jeff Hopkins '82
What to do? What to do?

What to do is catch them in ComOpp, beat them in Placid to flip the comparison, and jump them in PWR.

Cornell NCAA Hockey Tournament Performance Probabilities

  1R   QF   SF    F   Title
 .73  .33  .15  .07  .03

BearLover

The Rancor
Maybe with home ice on the line, we get better scheduling... maybe even a proper number of games played each season... better SOS... Better RPI... I'd rather have the odd chance at winning in Denver with the nearly same chance of winning at Lynah.

This logic doesn’t make sense though. The entire point of RPI is to compare two teams who play different schedules. RPI is a function of SOS and win%. The better our opponents, the better our SOS but the lower our win%. If RPI accurately measures how good a team is, then team X in Hockey East and team Y in the CCHA should be on equal footing.

I get the point about playing more games/starting the season earlier, but does this actually impact RPI over the course of a season? It’s leaves our RPI based on a smaller sample of games, but that shouldn’t hurt us all else being equal. It probably disadvantages us the first weekend of the season against a team that already has games under its belt, but on the other hand, Cornell has the benefit of focusing its preparation on that singular team for weeks, and Cornell can go into its opening weekend without injuries. Basically what I’m saying is that the silly Ivy League restrictions on our schedule shouldn’t impact our RPI much if at all.

I understand what you are saying. My point, or hope really, is that with more than 29 games, some of them might be against a Wisconsin or Denver, but just as likely it would be a Niagara or Canisius. A series against one or two more teams from conferences we don't always see.

We're alone in 11th... in KRACH.

All and all, not bad for a rebuilding year! Thank you for an exciting season! Let’s Go Red!