Playoff possibilities

[rhovorka]

Less than 24 hours until we finally know who's coming to town, and the picture is not one bit clearer.  Tigers, Dutchmen, Saints, and Bulldogs down to the wire.

Interesting to note that of the 4 possible teams that CU will face in the QF round, all 4 won on Friday night.  (Tho' Cornell was the only road team to win.) 2 points still seperate 11th and 8th.  Princeton has made certain that for them to miss the playoffs, they'd have to lose a 3-way tiebreak between them, SLU(t), and Yale.  Which they do in the 2nd tiebreak, using John's script.  (But that would mean a Cornell loss to Union for that to happen.  Blasphemy!  ;-) ) So basically, all 4 are still fighting for their lives, and we could see any of the 4 at Lynah next weekend.

I guess another possibility would be a 4-way tie (if Union and Cornell tie).  In that scenario, Union gets bumped out of the playoffs.

A Cornell win or tie, coupled with a Yale win vs. Brown, a Hahvahd win at Princeton, and a likely SLU win vs. Vermont gives Cornell the preferred QF opponent of Princeton.

Also, with Clarkson finally getting the UVM monkey off their back Friday, they have clinched home ice for the 206th straight time.  (OK, actually, it's 14 straight seasons).

Fun stuff to watch, when you're already assured of your position.  :-D

[zg88]

> ...with Clarkson finally getting the UVM monkey off their back Friday, they have clinced home ice for the 206th straight time. (OK, actually, it's 14 straight seasons).

...And we won't talk about what happened the last time the Knights failed to earn a home ice berth...  
:-(

[KeithK]

I won't try to go into exhaustive detail (I'll leave that to Bill Fenwick :-) ) but a few playoff notes
1) Clarkson clinches 2nd with a win or tie tonight. They're third if they lose.
2) Dartmouth clinches 2nd with a win at Cheel. If they tie they can still get 3rd but might end up 5th. A loss could drop them to 6th (I don't think they can lose the RPI tiebreak and fall to 7th).
3) Harvard can clinch 4th with a win and if Dartmouth doesn't they'll finish 3rd.  A tie and they still could be 3rd but could fall to 5th. A loss and they could be 7th.
4) Colgate clinches 5th with a win and could get 3rd.  A tie clinches 6th but could give them 3rd. A loss could drop them to 8th.
5) Brown seems to lose most of the tie breakers with the home ice contenders that I've tried, even with 3 and 4 way ties.  A win and they could be 3rd but only clinch 6th.  With a tie I think they can only manage 5th and might be 6th. A loss and they could slip to 8th.
6) RPI clinches 6th with a win and probably can't do much better than 5th. A tie leaves them 7th or 8th.  A loss might drop them to 9th.
7) Princeton clinches a playoff berth with a win or tie.  A win could get them to 7th and clinches 8th. A tie could still give 7th or 9th.  A loss could leave them home next weekend.
Union can get to 7th with a win and clinches at least 9th. A tie clinches nothing but could give them 9th. A loss and they're in trouble.
9) SLU is in good shape with tiebreakers as long as Dartmouth keeps home ice and so could get 8th with a win but would probably clinch a playoff spot.  A loss and they're in trouble.
10) Yale can't clinch anything with a win.  They need some help from the Catamounts (good luck) or Cornell (hopefully a better proposition).
11) Vermont gets to go home...

[RichS]

Why not?  :-D

That was quite a series as I recall...and an extra sweet outcome since cornell had swept the RS pair.

A meeting in LP this month would be interesting to say the least!

[Ben Doyle 03]

so. . .after all that we know only two things for certain, their are two clearer winners (thanks for the calculations Keith:-D ). First we win (already knew that); and second UVM is so bad they win a trip to. . . stay in Burlington (already knew that too)!!!! Making a long story somewhat shorter. . .we're only going to know what the deal is in about eight and a half hours. ;-) Talk to ya then:-P

[Greg Berge]

Assuming that the road team will be (slightly) favored to drop two quint games, how should we be rooting tonight to give Cornell the best mix of TUC's (including other conferences)?

[rhovorka]

Assuming that the road team will be (slightly) favored to drop two quint games, how should we be rooting tonight to give Cornell the best mix of TUC's (including other conferences)?

Well, I'll get the ball rolling by looking at what teams hurt and help us by being TUCs.

Hurt:
Harvard (11-13-4): Well, this is easy.  Root against Harvard.  If they beat Princeton tonight, they will become a TUC by winning their QF series.

BU (23-8-2): No chance of getting that loss off our TUC table.

N. Mich. (22-11-2): No chance.  Who knew the 2OT loss would mean so much?

OSU (17-15-4):  But their regular season is over.  No way for them to play 3-under .500 in the playoffs, so that loss is on our TUC record.

Dartmouth (12-11-5): This is a biggie.  Root against them at all costs.  Tonight's game vs. Clarkson is big because that would put them at .500, and a QF loss would definitely eliminate 2 L's from our TUC record (in addition to the bonus that we wouldn't have to face them again).  A DC win tonight means that even with a QF loss, they stay as a TUC.


Help:
Clarkson (14-13-6): Even more reason to root for them tonight.

Brown (14-12-2): To quote the UPS ads, "What can Brown do for you?"  Win/tie vs. Yale tonight, and their status as a TUC is secure.

Colgate (13-16-2): They'll have to make a serious run at Lake Placid.

RPI (15-12-4): Seems to me they've locked up TUC status.  Root for Colgate tonight.

Union (13-12-6): hairy due to the possibilities of playing us.  If CU wins tonight, and Union doesn't wind up playing at Lynah, then we can root for them to win their QF series.

UAH (14-17-1): They play 2 agains Bemidji St. next weekend.  Then single-elimination tourney.  Still a chance, but I'm not too hopeful, especially if they stay in 4th place and would have to go through Wayne St. in the Semis.

Niagara(17-15-1): They finish the regular season vs. Wayne St. tonight who is 14-2-3 in CHA league play.  But going into a single-elim. tournament 1 game over .500 clinches it.

[rhovorka]

OK, so my post edit wouldn't take (hit the button and nothing happened).  Probably something to do with all the browser windows I kept opening and closing while editing my post.

Bottom line tonight (for TUC value...not who our QF opponent will be):
1) Root for Cornell over Union (duh).
2) Root for Clarkson over Dartmouth.
3) Root for Princeton over Harvard.
4) Root for Colgate over RPI.

The remaining two games get weird. Which do you value more, assuring Brown as a TUC, or keeping Union as a TUC by knocking them out of the playoffs?  With the above 4 happening, the best option for our TUC would be:

5) Root for a Brown-Yale tie.
6) Root for a SLU win or tie over Vermont.

This combination clinches TUC status for Brown and Union.  Union hits the golf course with a .500 overall record.  But that means Yale comes to Lynah (whole other discussion).

One more, and really the only non-conference team to watch for TUC purposes:
7) Root for Alabama-Huntsville vs. Bemidji St. next weekend and then to march to a CHA playoff championship.

[KeithK]

A check of the rankings shows Niagara at 14-14-1 and UAH at 11-16-1.  I think the games against Findlay don't count. So UAH is definitely not a TUC unless they sweep Bemidji and then win their tournament (3 games). Niagara is in trouble too unless they can beat Wayne St. tonight.

So we root for Niagara to win tonight and then for UAH to run their table.

[mjh40]

Is Union still a TUC?  USCHO seems to have expunged them, but Union's own tally would have them just on the cusp.  Is this the Findlay issue again?

[KeithK]

Yup, it's Findlay. Union was 1-0-1 against them so their record for NC$$ purposes is one under .500. Not a TUC.

[zg88]

Ehhhh, TUC OFF!!!  :-D

[jtwcornell91]

So, another demonstrated weakness of the selection criteria.  Good luck trying to get the NCAA to do anything about it. ::help::

[Al DeFlorio]

The in/out" feature" of TUC is absurd.  

And how does PWR account for Colgate being a different team in Jan/Feb than it was in Nov/Dec?  Or Brown?  Or Lowell?  Or Union?  Or Harvard?

[JordanCS]

I'm sorry if I'm just out of the loop, but what the heck is TUC?