Cornell lax — 2025 playoffs

[billhoward]

4/20/25: Most recent updates on this msg at top.

The NcAA released its first pass at the top ten teams apparently using the same criteria as picking the 18 teams that make it (there are a pair of play-in games). https://www.ncaa.com/news/lacrosse-men/article/2025-04-19/ncaa-di-mens-lacrosse-committee-reveals-top-10

NCAA D1 Lax C'ttee First Top 10 Ranking (through games weekend of 4/16)

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Rank Team        Record
1 Cornell        10-1
2 Maryland 10-2
3 Princeton 9-2
4 Penn State 9-3
5 North Carolina 9-2
6 Harvard        9-2
7 Army West Point 10-1
8 Ohio State 11-2
9 Syracuse 9-3
10 Notre Dame 6-3
If this was the tournament bracket ranking Sunday May 4 and if the NCAAs played to form, the final four in Boston could be 1. Cornell vs. 4. Penn State, and 2. Maryland vs. 3. Princeton.

The RPI via LocrosseReference Pro has Cornell third, this after Saturday's (4/19/25) games. https://pro.lacrossereference.com/rpi-d1-men?t=epxlwifospeivmd

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1.  Princeton
2.  Maryland
3.  Cornell
4.  Penn State
5.  ND
6.  NC
7.  Duke
8.  Syracuse
9.  Ohio State
10. Harvard
...
12. Richmond
19. Yale
21. Dartmouth
26. Denver
28. Lehigh
29. Penn (long drop from ILT winner 2024)
35. Brown
51. Hobart
...
77. (last team) Hampton 0-1

Earlier material:
"Selection Sunday" is May 4. No time announced yet for selection show:

NCAA championship info from the horse's mouth: https://www.ncaa.com/championships/lacrosse-men/d1/road-to-the-championships#:~:text=Selection%20Show%20%7C%20May%204%2C%202025,will%20be%20announced%20May%204.


Earlier material:

Section for discussion of NCAA possibilities, actual selections, and who got screwed. It starts off with this: Early bracketology from Inside Lacrosse. This is the April 4 first edition. See graphic below from IL.

It has Cornell 7th, Princeton 2, Harvard 5 because ... without enough data points, or inferencing from lax gurus, IL falls back to RPI.

Um, #1 ranker Maryland just got took down by 6-6 Rutgers. #3 Notre Dame was beaten by Syracuse, which is considered a wildcard right now.

Per IL, the criteria the NCAA uses:

* Strength-of-schedule index.
* Results of the RPI:

Record against ranked teams 1-5; 6-10; 11-15; 16-20; 21+.
Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins).
Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses).
* Head-to-head competition:

Results versus common opponents.
Significant wins and losses (wins against teams ranked higher in the RPI and losses against teams ranked lower in the RPI).
Locations of contests.
Additionally, input is provided by the regional advisory committee for consideration by the Division I Men's Lacrosse Committee. Coaches' polls and/or any other outside polls or rankings are not used by the committee for selection purposes.

The top eight teams will be seeded and separated in the bracket, the remaining eight teams will be placed geographically. In making bracket assignments, the closest geographical consideration will be used as well as the ability to separate conference opponents during the first round of competition.

The NCAA Men's Division I Championship Committee
Chair, Northeast Region: Matthew Colagiovanni, Rutgers
Northeast Region: Randy Mearns, St. Bonaventure
Southeast Region: Nick Gannon, Drexel
Southeast Region: Kip Turner, Virginia
West Region: Danie Daluisio, Ohio State

Inside Lacrosse April 4 first-pass bracket:

[billhoward]

Versus Bracketology 1.0, the Inside Lacrosse first pass at ranking the teams works out like this:

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[b]IL Seed 1.0     Coaches Rank  Discrepancy[/b]
1. Maryland       6.          +5 (5 spots overrated vs. coaches poll)
2. Princeton      3.          +1
3. Notre Dame     9.          +6
4. N.Carolina     7.          +3
5. Harvard       10.          +5
6. Penn State     8.          +2
[b][color=#CC0000]7. Cornell        1.          -6[/color][/b] (6 spots underrated vs. poll)
8. Army           5.          -3
4/7 USILA poll
Once again, the northern (New York State) schools get hosed.

[CU77]

This is premature. IL's Terry Foy projected RPIs at the end of the regular season (before conference tournaments) assuming favorites win every game. Princeton ends up #1, Cornell #2.

https://x.com/TerenceFoy/status/1908908862897369293

[billhoward]

It's how you get clicks, and eyeballs seeing the ads. Post stuff early, some times too early, sometimes using a formula that may not pass the sniff test. Is Harvard really the fifth best team in the country?

[djk26]

After last year, I'd say the goals are:

1) Get in the tournament.

2) Get a home game.

After that it's all a roll of the dice.  Of course I'll be disappointed if Cornell doesn't win the national championship this year, since we may not see this level of talent on a Cornell team again for a very long time.  But we are going to have to beat strong teams sometime to get there.

[semsox]

After last year, I'd say the goals are:

1) Get in the tournament.

2) Get a home game.

After that it's all a roll of the dice.  Of course I'll be disappointed if Cornell doesn't win the national championship this year, since we may not see this level of talent on a Cornell team again for a very long time.  But we are going to have to beat strong teams sometime to get there.

While I understand the challenge of winning a quarterfinal game, I feel anything short of final four will ultimately feel like a missed opportunity. That said, not sure I'd agree that we won't see a team like 'this' for a very long time. I'd say this team has the same potential as the 07, 09, 13, 20 (unfortunately), and 22 teams did, and realistically, having a true national championship contender 6 times in the past ~20 years is pretty good!

[Swampy]

After last year, I'd say the goals are:

1) Get in the tournament.

2) Get a home game.

After that it's all a roll of the dice.  Of course I'll be disappointed if Cornell doesn't win the national championship this year, since we may not see this level of talent on a Cornell team again for a very long time.  But we are going to have to beat strong teams sometime to get there.

While I understand the challenge of winning a quarterfinal game, I feel anything short of final four will ultimately feel like a missed opportunity. That said, not sure I'd agree that we won't see a team like 'this' for a very long time. I'd say this team has the same potential as the 07, 09, 13, 20 (unfortunately), and 22 teams did, and realistically, having a true national championship contender 6 times in the past ~20 years is pretty good terrific!

[billhoward]

We had some other good contenders. And still, no trophy since 1977.

[BearLover]

We had some other good contenders. And still, no trophy since 1977.

This team is clearly good enough to win it all. Unfortunately, that does not guarantee anything.

[upprdeck]

a hot goalie or faceoff guy changes any one game

[semsox]

a hot goalie or faceoff guy changes any one game

While I agree with this sentiment generally, I feel the construction of this team makes them less susceptible to this outcome. Cascadden's floor is sufficiently high to prevent any truly catastrophic face-off outcomes, and our offense is too good to not put up goals. I feel if we're going to lose, it's either going to be in a shootout or to one of the really deep, complete defensive teams (e.g., Notre Dame, Maryland)

[upprdeck]

syracuse D has been good all year.  Only Harvard and Cornell broke 10 thats a good thing

[BearLover]

I tried parsing the Ivy League tiebreaker criteria and I believe that if Harvard beats Cornell and those two teams plus Princeton otherwise win out and end up at 5-1 in the Ivy, the host of the Ivy League tournament will come down to goal differential among the three matchups of these teams.

Princeton has played both Harvard and Cornell and is -3
Harvard has played Princeton and is -2
Cornell has played Princeton and is +5

So, assuming Cornell beats Dartmouth, if they also beat Harvard, they win the Ivy outright. If they lose to Harvard by 4 or more, Cornell may split the title with H/P and Harvard hosts the tourney. If they lose to H by 3 or less, Cornell may split the title with H/P but Cornell still hosts.

[CU77]

I agree with all of the above.

The four ILT teams are already determined to be Cornell, Princeton, Harvard, Yale. Cornell clinches hosting with a win over Harvard.

There are 6 remaining Ivy games. The Brown-Dartmouth game has no impact on ILT seedings. Here are the ILT seedings for the 32 possible outcomes of the other 5 games:

Code Select Expand


C>H Pr>Pe C>D Pr>Y H>B   C Pr H Y
C>H Pr>Pe C>D Pr>Y B>H   C Pr H Y
C>H Pr>Pe C>D Y>Pr H>B   C *HPrY*
C>H Pr>Pe C>D Y>Pr B>H   C Y Pr H
C>H Pr>Pe D>C Pr>Y H>B   C Pr H Y
C>H Pr>Pe D>C Pr>Y B>H   C Pr H Y
C>H Pr>Pe D>C Y>Pr H>B   C *HPrY*  
C>H Pr>Pe D>C Y>Pr B>H   C Y Pr H

C>H Pe>Pr C>D Pr>Y H>B   C Pr H Y
C>H Pe>Pr C>D Pr>Y B>H   C Pr H Y
C>H Pe>Pr C>D Y>Pr H>B   C H Y Pr
C>H Pe>Pr C>D Y>Pr B>H   C Y Pr H
C>H Pe>Pr D>C Pr>Y H>B   C Pr H Y
C>H Pe>Pr D>C Pr>Y B>H   C Pr H Y
C>H Pe>Pr D>C Y>Pr H>B   C H Y Pr
C>H Pe>Pr D>C Y>Pr B>H   C Y Pr H

H>C Pr>Pe C>D Pr>Y H>B   *CPrH* Y
H>C Pr>Pe C>D Pr>Y B>H   C Pr H Y
H>C Pr>Pe C>D Y>Pr H>B   H C Y Pr
H>C Pr>Pe C>D Y>Pr B>H   C *HPrY*
H>C Pr>Pe D>C Pr>Y H>B   Pr H C Y
H>C Pr>Pe D>C Pr>Y B>H   Pr H C Y
H>C Pr>Pe D>C Y>Pr H>B   H C Y Pr
H>C Pr>Pe D>C Y>Pr B>H   H C Y Pr

H>C Pe>Pr C>D Pr>Y H>B   H C Pr Y
H>C Pe>Pr C>D Pr>Y B>H   C Pr H Y
H>C Pe>Pr C>D Y>Pr H>B   H C Y Pr
H>C Pe>Pr C>D Y>Pr B>H   C H Y Pr
H>C Pe>Pr D>C Pr>Y H>B   H C Pr Y
H>C Pe>Pr D>C Pr>Y B>H   *CPrH* Y
H>C Pe>Pr D>C Y>Pr H>B   H C Y Pr
H>C Pe>Pr D>C Y>Pr B>H   H C Y Pr

C *HPrY*
Y>Pr by 1:      C Pr H Y
Y>Pr by 2,3,4:  C H Y Pr
Y>Pr by 5+:     C Y Pr H
 
*CPrH* Y:
H>C by 1,2,3:   C H Pr Y
H>C by 4+:      H C Pr Y


[jjanow99]

Wow, in 2 scenarios it would be C/Y/P/H.
That would be wild.