2023 ECAC Post Season

[BearLover]

I said it before and I'll say it again, there is a ridiculous talent disparity between Harvard and the rest of the league. Cornell had better hope that a large number of Harvard's 15 draft picks leave for the pros, and that something happens in the coming years to close the talent gap. This isn't tenable. Cornell has a solid team and played as well defensively as they reasonable could have, but even though Cornell did its best to contain Harvard's offense, Harvard's top two lines were creating changes far more dangerous than anything Cornell could put forth. It felt like a matter of time before Farrell, Coronato, Lafferierre, or any number of other uber-talented players potted the winning goal. If you put Michigan in the CCHA you'd have the same effect.

[ugarte]

St. Cloud wins !!!!

wow you were way ahead of the radio stream i was listening to. let's go huskies.

we need any one of three favorites to win tomorrow and i ran some numbers and there's roughly a 99.7% chance it happens.

[ugarte]

love that BU's opponent tomorrow is now in 2OT i hope it goes 6 and ends at 2am

[Cornell95]

well, despite how much I want to think of the players and graduating seniors in particular getting a chance to play in the NCAA tournament
I think I am just too petty to cheer for Harvard to win, even though Colgate winning would reduce the number of at-large bids available

[scoop85]

we need any one of three favorites to win tomorrow and i ran some numbers and there's roughly a 99.7% chance it happens.

:-P

[jkahn]

St. Cloud wins !!!!

wow you were way ahead of the radio stream i was listening to. let's go huskies. .

Game was on the CBS Sports Network, and final will be on there tomorrow.

[BearLover]

St. Cloud wins !!!!

wow you were way ahead of the radio stream i was listening to. let's go huskies.

we need any one of three favorites to win tomorrow and i ran some numbers and there's roughly a 99.7% chance it happens.

So Cornell has three shots now, and we're on the side of the favorite in all of them.

[ugarte]

St. Cloud wins !!!!

wow you were way ahead of the radio stream i was listening to. let's go huskies.

we need any one of three favorites to win tomorrow and i ran some numbers and there's roughly a 99.7% chance it happens.

So Cornell has three shots now, and we're on the side of the favorite in all of them.

that's what i said!

[BearLover]

St. Cloud wins !!!!

wow you were way ahead of the radio stream i was listening to. let's go huskies.

we need any one of three favorites to win tomorrow and i ran some numbers and there's roughly a 99.7% chance it happens.

So Cornell has three shots now, and we're on the side of the favorite in all of them.

that's what i said!

Oh sorry I missed that. Should be an approximately three-in-one-thousand chance we miss the NCAAs by my calculations.

[chimpfood]

Even if Merrimack loses tomorrow would they even fall behind us after this?

[marty]

St. Cloud wins !!!!

wow you were way ahead of the radio stream i was listening to. let's go huskies.

we need any one of three favorites to win tomorrow and i ran some numbers and there's roughly a 99.7% chance it happens.

I like those odds.  And 99.7% of eLynah agrees.  (We also have 99.7% fewer cavities but I forget why.)

[nshapiro]

So we need any one of:

St. Cloud scores in OT and beats CC
Harvard over Colgate - Hey Trotsky where ya at on this?
BU over whoever wins UML/Merrimack

Right?

Right. Harvard and BU will be the favorites, so we have a pretty good shot.

The 99.7% number from the CHN model was a complete joke. I'll keep harping on it until people stop citing it. It was cited by the Cornell Daily Sun, the ELynah twitter account, the popular "Everything College Hockey" social media account, and the literal commentators of tonight's game. Publishing this model is doing everyone a disservice. It isn't calibrated to reality. It isn't backwards-tested. No one made any attempt to check whether weighting by KRACH yields accurate predictions. But they publish the model anyway and people keep referring to it.

I have thoughts on the probabilities, but I'm gonna wait til after tomorrow to share them. Wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing and all.

I am not gonna wait.  Even if all three games that matter were just toss-ups, the odds of all three going wrong would be .5*.5*.5 = .125 = 12.5%
If you give favorites a 60% chance to win, then the odds of three upsets would be .4 * .4 * .4 = .064 = 6.4%

So, even after all the bad results today, the odds that Cornell makes the tournament are still in the 93.6% to 87.5% range.

I know it might not feel right, but trust the math.

Throwing your hands up and saying that it must be wrong makes me think that you are the guy who loses the bet, not believing that in a room of 40 people, the odds are overwhelming that two have the same birthday. This also feels like it can't possibly be right, but it is.

[BearLover]

So we need any one of:

St. Cloud scores in OT and beats CC
Harvard over Colgate - Hey Trotsky where ya at on this?
BU over whoever wins UML/Merrimack

Right?

Right. Harvard and BU will be the favorites, so we have a pretty good shot.

The 99.7% number from the CHN model was a complete joke. I'll keep harping on it until people stop citing it. It was cited by the Cornell Daily Sun, the ELynah twitter account, the popular "Everything College Hockey" social media account, and the literal commentators of tonight's game. Publishing this model is doing everyone a disservice. It isn't calibrated to reality. It isn't backwards-tested. No one made any attempt to check whether weighting by KRACH yields accurate predictions. But they publish the model anyway and people keep referring to it.

I have thoughts on the probabilities, but I'm gonna wait til after tomorrow to share them. Wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing and all.

I am not gonna wait.  Even if all three games that matter were just toss-ups, the odds of all three going wrong would be .5*.5*.5 = .125 = 12.5%
If you give favorites a 60% chance to win, then the odds of three upsets would be .4 * .4 * .4 = .064 = 6.4%

So, even after all the bad results today, the odds that Cornell makes the tournament are still in the 93.6% to 87.5% range.

I know it might not feel right, but trust the math.

Throwing your hands up and saying that it must be wrong makes me think that you are the guy who loses the bet, not believing that in a room of 40 people, the odds are overwhelming that two have the same birthday. This also feels like it can't possibly be right, but it is.

Huh? I agree with your odds (for the most part—I think weighting for the favorites is closer than 60/40). I don't agree with the 99.7% number ever being correct, though. The 99.7% number wasn't based on 60/40 weighting for favorites. Rather, it was based on completely absurd weighting based on KRACH, which gave Q something like a 90% chance of beating Colgate.

[Dafatone]

So we need any one of:

St. Cloud scores in OT and beats CC
Harvard over Colgate - Hey Trotsky where ya at on this?
BU over whoever wins UML/Merrimack

Right?

Right. Harvard and BU will be the favorites, so we have a pretty good shot.

The 99.7% number from the CHN model was a complete joke. I'll keep harping on it until people stop citing it. It was cited by the Cornell Daily Sun, the ELynah twitter account, the popular "Everything College Hockey" social media account, and the literal commentators of tonight's game. Publishing this model is doing everyone a disservice. It isn't calibrated to reality. It isn't backwards-tested. No one made any attempt to check whether weighting by KRACH yields accurate predictions. But they publish the model anyway and people keep referring to it.

I have thoughts on the probabilities, but I'm gonna wait til after tomorrow to share them. Wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing and all.

I am not gonna wait.  Even if all three games that matter were just toss-ups, the odds of all three going wrong would be .5*.5*.5 = .125 = 12.5%
If you give favorites a 60% chance to win, then the odds of three upsets would be .4 * .4 * .4 = .064 = 6.4%

So, even after all the bad results today, the odds that Cornell makes the tournament are still in the 93.6% to 87.5% range.

I know it might not feel right, but trust the math.

Throwing your hands up and saying that it must be wrong makes me think that you are the guy who loses the bet, not believing that in a room of 40 people, the odds are overwhelming that two have the same birthday. This also feels like it can't possibly be right, but it is.

My thoughts roughly echo yours. Was even gonna say some numbers if every game were a coin flip.

But again, the whatever and the thing.

[CU2007]

There are 3 finals that matter tomorrow - CCHA, ECAC and NCHC, unless the 3 underdogs win all three, we are in NCAA