2004 frozen four

[mike]

I was just wondering what you all think about cornells chances of going back to th frozen next year. I think they have a chance with the recruites they have coming back and the best goalie in the nation. let me know what you think:-)

[mike]

just a few corrections I must have typed it to fast. when it says frozen make that frozen four, add a e to th (the) and it says what recruites are coming back, supposed to say comming in.

[Stewart Wight]

Is Lenny coming back? That is the key question...
They have a shot, although Harvard will be tough again.

[Chris 02]

I think we'll be more of a darkhorse this coming year.  Granted at the beginning of the just completed season, no one regarded us quite as highly as the end.  But with all the experience gained by this team and the wonderful leadership this team had, there are going to be some surprises next year I think!

[Al DeFlorio]

Speaking of the Frozen Four, have other past ticketholders received their 2004 applications yet?  The NCAA site says they were to be mailed mid-April.

[marty]

I didn't receive anything in the mail.

Even though I have been at three since 1998 I was only listed as the buyer this year.  I am assuming I will have to print out the application from the NCAA web site in May when the lottery applications are taken.

[Jim Hyla]

Notyhing yet. ::worry::

[getred]

Applications are now available on the NC$$ site:

http://www.ncaasports.com/images/ncaasports/arc_image/2004_d1_mhko_tickets.pdf

[DeltaOne81]

and it's RED! :-D ;-)

[Jim Hyla]

And I got my priority app. in the mail today.:-D

[Greg Berge]

If LeNeveu comes back he's always a threat to run a couple shut-outs back-to-back and get Cornell through a Regional.  Cornell would probably have to win both of those games wearing road jerseys, but hey -- possible.

That's provided they make the NCAA field at all, of course.  And that would probably require another great weekend from Lenny in Albany, and again, probably wearing the road unis in at least one and likely both games.

So.  Four straight upset wins in no tomorrow situations.  Not at all likely, but hey -- possible.

[jtwcornell91]

I don't know if I'd rule out our shot at finishing in the top 14 and getting an at-large bid, even if we don't win in Albany.  I mean if Harvard did it this year...

[Richard Stott \'70]

I agree -- with all we are losing the Frozen Four is highly unlikely.  I think making the NCAA tournament will be a very successful season.  And ieven if we don't, I'm still very positive about the direction of Cornell hockey. Before the last two years I had begun to doubt that it was possible for Cornell to ever again be a major national hockey power.  We had a great run in the last two years, and i'm confident that the future is bright and I Schafer will have us back near the top before too long.

[Robb]

Should be interesting to see if we can make top 14.  Looking WAY too far ahead, let's say we:

- split with WMU (they'll have some games under their belts, but both at Lynah)
- beat BG and Mercyhurst (please?)
- lose to OSU (assume Umberger stays for now)
- beat ND, but lose the final of Everblades to Maine (doubling our win total in FL!)

4-3 OOC record - eh, not horrible, but picking up the Everblades final or the OSU game would be huge (especially if it's Maine, our only potential HE game of the year - a win there would go a LONG way towards helping our comparisons against HE teams).

In conference, assume we get swept by Harvard ( ::yark:: ), split with Dartmouth ( :-( ), Yale ( :-/  ), and Brown (  ::help:: ), and then drop a couple that we shouldn't.  That'd be 15-7 in conference, which should be good for 3rd or 4th place.  

Final RS record: 19-10.

We really shouldn't lose 2 of 3 at Lynah in the ECACs (yes, I know all about UVM and Clarkson, but well, hey - that was CLARKSON).  Anyway, in my scenario, we sweep the #6 ECAC team on our way into Albany.

That leaves "road" games in Albany for the title.  The good news is that we should be getting stronger and stronger as the season goes on and those highly touted freshman become solid college players who know Schafer's system.   Say we gack one up in Albany anyway, beating #2 and then losing to #1 in the final.

Final record for NCAA selection: 22-11.

Since I'm really bored, if all our (next years') opponents' win % and their ops' win % are the same as they were this year, then our opponents' % will be approximately .473 (compared with .508 this year) and our opponents' opponents' % will be ~.496 (vs. .504 this year).  This includes 2 games against ECAC team #6 (Union) for the QFs, and games against Yale and Harvard at Albany.  This is a significantly weaker schedule (hopefully Harvard will be better, but some will likely be worse, too) than this year.  With my hypothetical 22-11 record, our RPI would finish at ~.527, which would have only ranked 20th this year.

Last year, the 14th best RPI was OSU at .5497.  For us to end up with an RPI of .55, we'd need to post at least a .78 record against that schedule, which would correspond to about 26-7.  Yikes.  Basically, our schedule strength will be SO weak we'll have to put up a heck of a record just to crack the top 14 in RPI.  To get back to where we finished this year (#1 in RPI at .5958), we'd have to go 31-1!

Of course, RPI is only one component of PWR, but it's a pretty good predictor of final PWR, too.  If we beat Mercyhurst and they win their tourney, that would help, etc.  Based on all this, I'm really not holding my breath for an at-large bid next year.  26-7 would be an amazing achievement – my gut tells me we have a better shot at "one for the big toe" than a 26-7 record.

[Greg Berge]

That was one of the most impressive displays of proactive geekiness I've ever seen here, and that includes the efforts of Mr. Whelan, myself, and others.  Bravo.  :-)

A 30-point ECAC season seems unlikely.

http://www.spiritone.com/~kepler/ecac/ecac_h2hbyyear.html gives an indication of how difficult it is to clean up against teams that finish lower in the standings.  You're thinking of a season similar to 1988.  That's probably the best possible scenario.  I'm thinking that a season like 1989 would be more likely, and a season like 1992 the most likely of all.  Then again, in 1992 we had a great goaltender (Duffus) lead us to upset wins in the QF and SF.  Kepler's second law can take care of March.

BTW, we got the second big toe in March.  We are now working on the Hemmingway toes.  Insert polydactyl joke here.



Post Edited (05-02-03 14:16)