2019 ECAC QF

[upprdeck]

i get some of the convenience.  but often i dont have access to a printer that works and really dont like having to drag a cell phone around. I like tickets, it makes me feel like i am getting and going to something.. paper tickets an QR codes just dont feel the same.

[Beeeej]

i get some of the convenience.  but often i dont have access to a printer that works and really dont like having to drag a cell phone around. I like tickets, it makes me feel like i am getting and going to something.. paper tickets an QR codes just dont feel the same.

If your primary complaint is what a hassle the card is when you're having other people use your tickets, why on earth does it matter whether you have a working printer or want to drag a cell phone around?

[andyw2100]

i get some of the convenience.  but often i dont have access to a printer that works and really dont like having to drag a cell phone around. I like tickets, it makes me feel like i am getting and going to something.. paper tickets an QR codes just dont feel the same.

You can have the ticket office print your tickets for you. I know they will do a single game, and I expect if you wanted to you could get them to print the entire season. The tickets won't be the colorful tickets of yesterday, but rather plain, white, standard sporting event tickets, (so it won't help anyone who liked the old, colorful stubs) but you will have physical tickets.

[upprdeck]

our area is a bit behind the times.  internet almost non existent, older population, so cell phones limited, someone has to print the ticket to give to people if thats the only way to get it done..

i'm not complaining other than i prefer tickets.  i dont like the cards, i like knowing game time/date/team and being able to look at a ticket to see it.

i would like the option to get tickets, i would pay more for it.   we also lost all the perks the tickets used to provide.

it is what it is.

[Trotsky]

PlayoffStatus.com has us 4th in likelihood of advancing to Placid:

Code Select Expand


     [u]SF   F   1   $$  QF  SF   F   1[/u]
Qpc .89 .58 .35 1.00 .60 .32 .16 .08
Hvd .84 .39 .19  .63 .27 .12 .05 .02
Clk .73 .38 .17  .86 .39 .17 .07 .03
[color=#b31313]Cor .67 .36 .17  .76 .35 .15 .07 .03[/color]
Uni .33 .12 .06  .23 .09 .04 .01 .01
Yal .27 .09 .04  .04 .01 .01 --- ---
Drt .16 .05 .01  .02 --- --- --- ---
Brn .11 .04 .01  .02 --- --- --- ---

--- Noise


[BearLover]

PlayoffStatus.com has us 4th in likelihood of advancing to Placid:

Code Select Expand


     [u]SF   F   1   $$  QF  SF   F   1[/u]
Qpc .89 .58 .35 1.00 .60 .32 .16 .08
Hvd .84 .39 .19  .63 .27 .12 .05 .02
Clk .73 .38 .17  .86 .39 .17 .07 .03
[color=#b31313]Cor .67 .36 .17  .76 .35 .15 .07 .03[/color]
Uni .33 .12 .06  .23 .09 .04 .01 .01
Yal .27 .09 .04  .04 .01 .01 --- ---
Drt .16 .05 .01  .02 --- --- --- ---
Brn .11 .04 .01  .02 --- --- --- ---

--- Noise


As discussed at length last year, this model overstates a highly-ranked team's chances of beating a lower-ranked team. With that said, it's clear that Cornell drew a considerably harder opponent than the other top-4 ECAC teams.

[Dafatone]

PlayoffStatus.com has us 4th in likelihood of advancing to Placid:

Code Select Expand


     [u]SF   F   1   $$  QF  SF   F   1[/u]
Qpc .89 .58 .35 1.00 .60 .32 .16 .08
Hvd .84 .39 .19  .63 .27 .12 .05 .02
Clk .73 .38 .17  .86 .39 .17 .07 .03
[color=#b31313]Cor .67 .36 .17  .76 .35 .15 .07 .03[/color]
Uni .33 .12 .06  .23 .09 .04 .01 .01
Yal .27 .09 .04  .04 .01 .01 --- ---
Drt .16 .05 .01  .02 --- --- --- ---
Brn .11 .04 .01  .02 --- --- --- ---

--- Noise


As discussed at length last year, this model overstates a highly-ranked team's chances of beating a lower-ranked team. With that said, it's clear that Cornell drew a considerably harder opponent than the other top-4 ECAC teams.

67% chance to beat Union 2 of 3 doesn't sound wrong to me. That puts our odds of beating them in any one game, at home, at a little over 61%.

[billhoward]

PlayoffStatus.com has us 4th in likelihood of advancing to Placid:

I'm telling ya, Cornell, ...

[BearLover]

PlayoffStatus.com has us 4th in likelihood of advancing to Placid:

Code Select Expand


     [u]SF   F   1   $$  QF  SF   F   1[/u]
Qpc .89 .58 .35 1.00 .60 .32 .16 .08
Hvd .84 .39 .19  .63 .27 .12 .05 .02
Clk .73 .38 .17  .86 .39 .17 .07 .03
[color=#b31313]Cor .67 .36 .17  .76 .35 .15 .07 .03[/color]
Uni .33 .12 .06  .23 .09 .04 .01 .01
Yal .27 .09 .04  .04 .01 .01 --- ---
Drt .16 .05 .01  .02 --- --- --- ---
Brn .11 .04 .01  .02 --- --- --- ---

--- Noise


As discussed at length last year, this model overstates a highly-ranked team's chances of beating a lower-ranked team. With that said, it's clear that Cornell drew a considerably harder opponent than the other top-4 ECAC teams.

67% chance to beat Union 2 of 3 doesn't sound wrong to me. That puts our odds of beating them in any one game, at home, at a little over 61%.

I agree. It's the other top-four teams' odds that are off.

[Tom Lento]

PlayoffStatus.com has us 4th in likelihood of advancing to Placid:

Code Select Expand


     [u]SF   F   1   $$  QF  SF   F   1[/u]
Qpc .89 .58 .35 1.00 .60 .32 .16 .08
Hvd .84 .39 .19  .63 .27 .12 .05 .02
Clk .73 .38 .17  .86 .39 .17 .07 .03
[color=#b31313]Cor .67 .36 .17  .76 .35 .15 .07 .03[/color]
Uni .33 .12 .06  .23 .09 .04 .01 .01
Yal .27 .09 .04  .04 .01 .01 --- ---
Drt .16 .05 .01  .02 --- --- --- ---
Brn .11 .04 .01  .02 --- --- --- ---

--- Noise


As discussed at length last year, this model overstates a highly-ranked team's chances of beating a lower-ranked team. With that said, it's clear that Cornell drew a considerably harder opponent than the other top-4 ECAC teams.

67% chance to beat Union 2 of 3 doesn't sound wrong to me. That puts our odds of beating them in any one game, at home, at a little over 61%.

I agree. It's the other top-four teams' odds that are off.

I don't know if this is really that overstated for the QF in general. If QPac didn't have missing players I'd take them as a 10-1 favorite for taking 2 of 3 from Brown at home, and I don't think Clarkson or Harvard's QF odds are all that far off either. 15% isn't likely, but it's not a super shocking upset either, and I think Dartmouth beating Harvard 2 of 3 is pretty unlikely. Maybe Yale's a lot better than their record (or Clarkson a lot worse)?

Side note - in the last 9 years I only count 4 QF series that were won by the road team. Not at all rigorous, to be sure, but I think your prior for expecting QF upsets should be pretty low.

Now, if we look out to the NCAA projections, QPac's odds of making the Frozen Four look pretty ridiculous to me. I suspect the further out the projection goes through single-elimination territory the more the flaws in the model get exposed. My prior on an ECAC team advancing to the FF is also very low, and I'd absolutely bet against them at the model odds.

[billhoward]

Not easy to find a visual bracket. Here's one.

The best of three QF games are scheduled for 7, 7 and 4 (Clarkson, 7, 7 and 7).

The semifinals in Lake Placid are 4 and 7:30. The top surviving seed plays the earlier game. (I believe it used to be top-seed choice and now it just is, because the top seed wants the extra 3 hours of rest, and a chance to see who they're playing Saturday.) The title game is 7:30 pm; no consolation.

It is my considered belief that you can just walk up and buy tickets. Were Clarkson (is possible) and St. Lawrence (not this year) at Lake Placid, along with Cornell, Friday gets closer to full. Saturday, not many of the losing-team fans stick around.

[Trotsky]

That is not a correct picture.  It is not a fixed bracket tournament.

[Swampy]

...

I don't know if this is really that overstated for the QF in general. If QPac didn't have missing players I'd take them as a 10-1 favorite for taking 2 of 3 from Brown at home, and I don't think Clarkson or Harvard's QF odds are all that far off either. 15% isn't likely, but it's not a super shocking upset either, and I think Dartmouth beating Harvard 2 of 3 is pretty unlikely. Maybe Yale's a lot better than their record (or Clarkson a lot worse)?

...

I actually like Brown's chances. Shiplo and Priskie are out tonight, and Priskie is out tomorrow too. Both of them are seniors, with Priskie being perhaps the best defenseman in the league. Unfortunately, Q has a big roster, with 10 defensemen, so they won't be so short that players will necessarily wear out. But besides just the absence of these players, any different pairings,etc. might stymie team chemistry and give Brown an advantage.

Brown beat Q 4-1 on Feb. 4, and Q beat Brown 4-1 on Mar. 1. In the first game Q's only score was on a PP. In both games, SOG were lopsidedly in Q's favor.

[andyw2100]

From the "Game Notes" for tonight's game:

--
The game will be broadcast on ESPN+ in the U.S. with Grady Whittenburg on play-by-play and Will LeBlond providing color commentary."
--

Anyone know why Topher Scott isn't doing the color commentary?

[Trotsky]

Anyone know why Topher Scott isn't doing the color commentary?

I know if was mentioned during the season that the RS was his last broadcast, so it was planned anyway.