Bracketology Starts

[abmarks]

Ok. so explain the anti 3 game home series thing to me again?  Is the argument that  PWR is flawed so you give a team home ice that doesnt deserve it?  Dont we do that now in the current system by trying to keep teams close to home anyway and then completely reward and undeserving team by playing at home if they get in?

At the least, best of three makes for far fewer upsets, which takes a lot of magic out of the tournament.  Is there any NCAA sport that has best of X in the tournament, apart possibly from the goofy system in baseball? Also, it's goofy to have one round as best of X and then play single elimination.  If it was best of 3 in each round, then it would make lots of sense.   Best of three seems a vestige of past history when there was a smaller NCAA field.  Looking at the last 30 years:


-In 1986, there were 8 teams and the QF was the goofy two game series.

-In 1988 the tourney went to 12 teams, with the top 4 getting byes to the QF and the other 8 playing 2 game total goal series at the higher seed's rink.  THe QF was also 2 game aggregate at the higher seed's rink.

-In 1989, there were 12 teams but they switched the first round to best of 3 instead of the goofy 2 game aggregate.  THe second round was also best of 3 at the higher seed's rink.

-In 1992 the tourney went to single elimination and used regional sites, not home sites with 12 teams.


if best of 3 is bad then why do we do it in the 1st round where it has the least chance of being an upset?

and TV could care less about knowing sites in advance, they are a content driven service..  best of 3 means more games. more revenue, also some more cost.. hosting on home campus helps keep that cost down since they could actually have hosts have a break even model not a profit model. 8 teams would not have to travel instead of 16 traveling.

if it is all about upsets then keep the current system, but attendance is down across the board and this may prop it up a bit maybe not. but it would add to the excitement in the building and not so many empty seats, which is also a bad thing for TV.

-There's hardly enough TV revenue for the first NCAA round to make any marginal increase meaningful.  Also, while today, one announcing team and camera team can be used for two round of 16 games on one day, and then the QF the next day.  Switching the round of 16 to home best of three now needs 8 broadcasting teams - that's lot's more expensive.

I've got no idea why the ECAC has the best of three for the first round - it's pretty silly actually.  The only reasons I can think of are that the home team will make 2 or 3x the gate due to the extra games.  TV money again here is basically zero.

[upprdeck]

I have talked with ESPN about the tv issues and crowd issues as well and thats not the answer i got in either case..  the fact they are even looking at this switch is completely crowd/ticket related. The Lax model may come into pay as well.

[Weder]

I have talked with ESPN about the tv issues and crowd issues as well and thats not the answer i got in either case..  the fact they are even looking at this switch is completely crowd/ticket related. The Lax model may come into pay as well.

I wouldn't be opposed to the lacrosse model if it eliminates the week off between the regionals and the semifinals. Would you have two or four sites for the round of 8?

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

OOC, isn't the Bracketology "rule" that we assume the conference leader is the AQ for that conference?  if so, why is anybody dealing with North Dakota?  BC is in first place in Hockey East, despite their PWR position. So they are the 15 seed, not NoDak.

JH

The "rule" is that we assume the conference leader is the AQ for that conference if nobody from that conference would qualify for AL.  It's a convention for reserving the slot for the conference (essentially, it is the Atlantic Hockey Quota).  Northeastern is #10 (and Providence #12) so we don't consider BC.

That's not how USCHO is doing it...see Jim's post with the most recent bracketology.  They have BC, not NoDak.

Not that it really matters.  In a week and a half, we'll have the real deal.

[Trotsky]

That's not how USCHO is doing it...see Jim's post with the most recent bracketology.  They have BC, not NoDak.

Oh.
 OK, I did not know that.  That's a perverse decision, but I am certainly down with perversity.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

That's not how USCHO is doing it...see Jim's post with the most recent bracketology.  They have BC, not NoDak.

Oh.
 OK, I did not know that.  That's a perverse decision, but I am certainly down with perversity.

I'm not sure what to think about that.

[Trotsky]

That's not how USCHO is doing it...see Jim's post with the most recent bracketology.  They have BC, not NoDak.

Oh.
 OK, I did not know that.  That's a perverse decision, but I am certainly down with perversity.

I'm not sure what to think about that.

That's not what I heard.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

So, with Mankato losing to Mich. Tech it claims one more bubble slot for the WCHA autobid.  If we assume that BC gets the HE autobid, then NoDak is out.

St. Cloud plays CHA winner
Notre Dame plays WCHA winner
We play Minnesota (since Ohio State can't)
Ohio State plays BC

If Denver passes Ohio State, then probably they get Minnesota and we get BC.

Of course, if OSU beats Notre Dame, the we probably move up to 2 and play the WCHA winner.

But it's all dependent on BC winning out, because if they don't they probably aren't in, and NoDak might be.

Still a lot of question marks.  One week to go.

[adamw]

Everyone please feel free to use You Are The Committee (than you JTW) -- the original and still the best -- at CHN:

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/yatc.php

[RichH]

Still a lot of question marks.  One week to go.

One thing I've remembered seen on the internet is that the NCHC has a consolation game, so North Dakota will play two games. Depending on your level of optimism, that's either an extra chance for a win (or tie in the case of the consy) vs a quality opponent, or a chance for them to get two losses hung on their record.

If NoDak wins the NCHC title, there's a decent chance they elevate to the 9-12 band, get a 3 seed, and that's probably good news for us.

Tonight's Monte Carlo simulation on CHN makes it look like Cornell is a lock for a top-4 finish and a #1 seed. So far, I can't find a way to drop us to #5.

It's clear we have to be big fans of the BU/BC winner in the HEA Final.

I just found a YATC scenario where a Cornell win over Clarkson in the Final gives us #1 overall, but flipping that one result drops us to #4. https://goo.gl/ogz2Ex

Crazy, but fun, times this week.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

My playing with YATC (Thanks, Adam!):  If we win out and the top 4 are us, St. Cloud, Notre Dame and OSU, even if we finish second, then most likely we get Minnesota in the first round, because I've come up with many scenarios where they finish 13th.  The only way that doesn't happen is if Duluth loses out (semifinal and consy).  Then Minnesota moves up to 12th, there are no Big 10 teams in the 13-16 band, and the committee has free reign to slot us.

[KenP]

Cornell gets the #1 overall IF:

• Cornell wins out AND
• St. Cloud is held to one point or less (semi-final loss AND loss or tie in the consolation game)

The CHN Monte Carlo simulation shows a non-zero chance of Cornell at the #5 PWR.  Denver needs to beat St. Cloud in the finals AND Ohio State needs to lose AND all RPI factors work to bump Ohio State up to #4 despite a loss:

• ECAC Semifinal #1: Princeton def. Cornell
• ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard def. Clarkson
• ECAC Championship: Harvard def. Princeton
• Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College def. Boston University
• Hockey East Semifinal #2: Northeastern def. Providence
• Hockey East Championship: Northeastern def. Boston College
• Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Robert Morris def. Mercyhurst
• Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Air Force def. Canisius
• Atlantic Hockey Championship: Robert Morris def. Air Force
• WCHA Championship: Michigan Tech def. Northern Michigan
• Big Ten Championship: Notre Dame def. Ohio State
• NCHC Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State def. North Dakota
• NCHC Semifinal #2: Denver def. Minnesota-Duluth
• NCHC Championship: Denver def. St. Cloud State
• NCHC Consolation: North Dakota ties Minnesota-Duluth

[Jim Hyla]

Cornell gets the #1 overall IF:

• Cornell wins out AND
• St. Cloud is held to one point or less (semi-final loss AND loss or tie in the consolation game)

The CHN Monte Carlo simulation shows a non-zero chance of Cornell at the #5 PWR.  Denver needs to beat St. Cloud in the finals AND Ohio State needs to lose AND all RPI factors work to bump Ohio State up to #4 despite a loss:

• ECAC Semifinal #1: Princeton def. Cornell
• ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard def. Clarkson
• ECAC Championship: Harvard def. Princeton
• Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College def. Boston University
• Hockey East Semifinal #2: Northeastern def. Providence
• Hockey East Championship: Northeastern def. Boston College
• Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Robert Morris def. Mercyhurst
• Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Air Force def. Canisius
• Atlantic Hockey Championship: Robert Morris def. Air Force
• WCHA Championship: Michigan Tech def. Northern Michigan
• Big Ten Championship: Notre Dame def. Ohio State
• NCHC Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State def. North Dakota
• NCHC Semifinal #2: Denver def. Minnesota-Duluth
• NCHC Championship: Denver def. St. Cloud State
• NCHC Consolation: North Dakota ties Minnesota-Duluth

I'd guess that's why CHN's Pairwise Probability Matrix lists us as having a 0.0% chance of being 5^th. Meaning it came out to be a less than 0.05% chance and it got rounded to 0.0%. If there's no chance of a position, you don't have any number listed.

If that's true, I can live with a <0.05% chance of not being in the top 4.

[billhoward]

Penn State lost the Big Ten semifinal to Notre Dame 3-2 Saturday. They were a projected 3-seed going in. Does the loss pushm the out of the tournament? Does it drop Penn State to a 4-seed in Allentown, where they must play as the regional host? Where Cornell could be the 1-seed in the regional where Cornell would play 3 hours away?

But then how many teams are we trying to avoid: Princeton, Harvard in the ECACs? PSU in the regionals?

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

For PSU to drop to 13th it requires NoDak to win out.  I can get us to first in that scenario, but if BC doesn't win hockey east, Minnesota is 14th.  So Notre Dame and OSU get the lower seeds and we and St. Cloud get the Big 10 schools, with us probably in Allentown.  

If BC wins out, Minnesota is out, we get the CHA autobid and St. Cloud gets Penn State. But if St. Cloud finishes first, they get the CHA autobid and we get Penn State.