Bracketology Starts

[upprdeck]

one thing that has now happened. if NDakota loses tonight they might well be the 5 seed and have to travel to CC.  if they lose in 2 they fall out of the PWR chances be ending under .500

[Beeeej]

A loss and a tie has North Dakota down to 15th in the Pairwise and hanging on to the theoretical last spot by a thread, and even that's on the outside looking in if there are any serious tourney upsets (of which BC is the likeliest). I'd just as soon NoDak be golfing when we hit regionals, so fingers crossed for this weekend.

[KenP]

http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournseedprob.html

St. Cloud has basically wrapped up the #1 overall.  Cornell is one of the next five teams vying for #2-6, with the rest of the pack looking at #7 and lower.

Interesting to see the gradual decline in our chances for a #1 seed.  Still pretty good... but the odds of a #2 seed are now up to 28%.  

Also interesting also that Penn State is now virtually a lock with high probability of being a #3 seed.

[BearLover]

http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournseedprob.html

St. Cloud has basically wrapped up the #1 overall.  Cornell is one of the next five teams vying for #2-6, with the rest of the pack looking at #7 and lower.

Interesting to see the gradual decline in our chances for a #1 seed.  Still pretty good... but the odds of a #2 seed are now up to 28%.  

Also interesting also that Penn State is now virtually a lock with high probability of being a #3 seed.

"Oh no, here comes BearLover with another one of his rants about the prediction model." This model is helpful in that it informs us what our range of PWR outcomes is. But don't put too much faith in that 28% number. The model is overrating our chances of beating each of our opponents in the ECAC tournament.

Unfortunately, it's likely the Atlantic Hockey auto bid will be the only significantly easier matchup this year, so I'm personally focusing on Cornell hoisting the Whitelaw Cup, rather than  their NCAA seeding.

[Trotsky]

I'm personally focusing on Cornell hoisting the Whitelaw Cup, rather than  their NCAA seeding.

I may be alone in this but I always focus on the Whitelaw.

The NC$$ is surreal to me.  It's an Epilogue to the season.  Obviously I WANT TO SEE THEM FUCKING WIN IT SOMEDAY!!! but it's still an out-of-body experience.

The first few times I went to the Gahden it was like that too, probably because Cornell failed to make the ECAC post-season at all until my senior year.  Maybe it would change if we ran off some ungodly Michigan streak.  But job one, to me, is always to win the ECAC championship.  That's the entree.  The NC$$ is desert.

[RichH]

http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournseedprob.html

St. Cloud has basically wrapped up the #1 overall.  Cornell is one of the next five teams vying for #2-6, with the rest of the pack looking at #7 and lower.

Interesting to see the gradual decline in our chances for a #1 seed.  Still pretty good... but the odds of a #2 seed are now up to 28%.  

Also interesting also that Penn State is now virtually a lock with high probability of being a #3 seed.

If North Dakota reverses the trend and Worcester host Holy Cross wins the AHA tournament, then all 3 active host teams are taking up a 3-4 seed placing before the top seeds are placed. I don't have time to look at it now, but I'm guessing that could throw more chaos in the seeding process.

[Trotsky]

Seems to me that HC winning would be a godsend for the committee since it locks down a presumptive patsy and a site.  St. Cloud gets the Bemidji 2009 Memorial Reward and goes to Worcester and the committee only has to worry about the 1/4 permutations of the other 3 sites.

It's iron clad that the committee will never cross over a tier line, right?  (e.g., they would never move the #4 overall to a 2-seed to duck a North Dakota "4 seed home game."  If that's set in stone I don't see a lot of chaos -- just somebody getting inevitably and deterministically well and truly fucked.  I would expect that to be the 4.  If Mankato sneaks into the 4 I'd practically guarantee it -- Mankato is closer to Sioux Falls than is NoDak (as is, for that matter, St. Cloud.  The West is big.).

[KenP]

http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournseedprob.html

St. Cloud has basically wrapped up the #1 overall.  Cornell is one of the next five teams vying for #2-6, with the rest of the pack looking at #7 and lower.

Interesting to see the gradual decline in our chances for a #1 seed.  Still pretty good... but the odds of a #2 seed are now up to 28%.  

Also interesting also that Penn State is now virtually a lock with high probability of being a #3 seed.

"Oh no, here comes BearLover with another one of his rants about the prediction model." This model is helpful in that it informs us what our range of PWR outcomes is. But don't put too much faith in that 28% number. The model is overrating our chances of beating each of our opponents in the ECAC tournament.

Unfortunately, it's likely the Atlantic Hockey auto bid will be the only significantly easier matchup this year, so I'm personally focusing on Cornell hoisting the Whitelaw Cup, rather than  their NCAA seeding.

I'm not focusing on the specific percentage, rather the trend.  About a month ago we were "88%" likely to be a #1 seed.  Now it has fallen to "72%".  That is information.  Similarly I did not write that Penn State has a 75% chance of being a #3 seed, just "high probability".

In the end we all agree... just win.

[adamw]

Seems to me that HC winning would be a godsend for the committee since it locks down a presumptive patsy and a site.  St. Cloud gets the Bemidji 2009 Memorial Reward and goes to Worcester and the committee only has to worry about the 1/4 permutations of the other 3 sites.

It's iron clad that the committee will never cross over a tier line, right?  (e.g., they would never move the #4 overall to a 2-seed to duck a North Dakota "4 seed home game."  If that's set in stone I don't see a lot of chaos -- just somebody getting inevitably and deterministically well and truly fucked.  I would expect that to be the 4.  If Mankato sneaks into the 4 I'd practically guarantee it -- Mankato is closer to Sioux Falls than is NoDak (as is, for that matter, St. Cloud.  The West is big.).

That is correct - not crossing over is sacrosanct - though I've argued many times it shouldn't be, in extreme cases.

You're right that it's not chaos, in the sense that it makes things obvious about who goes where, but it is messier, for sure.  Even if North Dakota doesn't make it, but Holy Cross does ... it means that instead of (relatively) nearby Sioux Falls, St. Cloud will be forced to go to Worcester.  We already know St. Cloud can't go to Sioux Falls if North Dakota was there - but Holy Cross' involvement would be an extra scenario where St. Cloud can't go to Sioux Falls.

[Trotsky]

We already know St. Cloud can't go to Sioux Falls if North Dakota was there - but Holy Cross' involvement would be an extra scenario where St. Cloud can't go to Sioux Falls.

I think we all agree that for the good of the planet North Dakota must die.

[KGR11]

Seems to me that HC winning would be a godsend for the committee since it locks down a presumptive patsy and a site.  St. Cloud gets the Bemidji 2009 Memorial Reward and goes to Worcester and the committee only has to worry about the 1/4 permutations of the other 3 sites.

It's iron clad that the committee will never cross over a tier line, right?  (e.g., they would never move the #4 overall to a 2-seed to duck a North Dakota "4 seed home game."  If that's set in stone I don't see a lot of chaos -- just somebody getting inevitably and deterministically well and truly fucked.  I would expect that to be the 4.  If Mankato sneaks into the 4 I'd practically guarantee it -- Mankato is closer to Sioux Falls than is NoDak (as is, for that matter, St. Cloud.  The West is big.).

That is correct - not crossing over is sacrosanct - though I've argued many times it shouldn't be, in extreme cases.

You're right that it's not chaos, in the sense that it makes things obvious about who goes where, but it is messier, for sure.  Even if North Dakota doesn't make it, but Holy Cross does ... it means that instead of (relatively) nearby Sioux Falls, St. Cloud will be forced to go to Worcester.  We already know St. Cloud can't go to Sioux Falls if North Dakota was there - but Holy Cross' involvement would be an extra scenario where St. Cloud can't go to Sioux Falls.

There's something screwed up with the #1 overall seed being forced to fly to the worst overall team. I'd bet St. Cloud State prefers this to playing a BC-caliber team in Sioux Falls, but I think it points to the inequity in the "hosting" framework. I can understand that host schools should be rewarded for their efforts, but I don't think every school has the geographic opportunity to host: will the Alaska schools ever host a regional? What about the schools on the Upper Peninsula?

[upprdeck]

any school can host, it just may not be super local..  Cornell would do it(Buff/albany/pitt?) but our Ath Dept can barely run our own venue let alone organize one someplace else.

But Holy cross is not winning their tourney

What am I missing, why would SCS fly if ND is not in it.  wouldnt they just try to flip around some other #4 seed?

[Trotsky]

I can understand that host schools should be rewarded for their efforts

I can't.  Frankly, fuck them.  You should not be able to buy your way up to a better slot.

[adamw]

What am I missing, why would SCS fly if ND is not in it.  wouldnt they just try to flip around some other #4 seed?

Most likely not. The difference between playing Holy Cross and (e.g.) Boston College is so extreme, that the No. 1 seed would never be forced to do that, if preventable.

[scoop85]

any school can host, it just may not be super local..  Cornell would do it(Buff/albany/pitt?) but our Ath Dept can barely run our own venue let alone organize one someplace else.

But Holy cross is not winning their tourney

What am I missing, why would SCS fly if ND is not in it.  wouldnt they just try to flip around some other #4 seed?

Were we to ever host (fat chance, I know), I think either Syracuse or Binghamton would be the possible venues.  Both cities have AHL rinks that would seem suitable.