2015-16

[Rosey]

All I can say at this point is that it's a shame that jtwcornell91 doesn't check in here more often. Because this thread.

Because this thread needs him(?).

"Because noun". Language evolution.

Eh.  It's just a dropped/implied "of".  It's a language shift, sure, but it's not as big a deal as some people make it out to be.  At least in my opinion.

Agreed, but why do people care so much in the first place? I'm sure the highest-minded English teacher nowadays would sound like an uneducated bumpkin to Victorian elites. Language changes all the time.

[Robb]

All I can say at this point is that it's a shame that jtwcornell91 doesn't check in here more often. Because this thread.

Because this thread needs him(?).

"Because noun". Language evolution.

Eh.  It's just a dropped/implied "of".  It's a language shift, sure, but it's not as big a deal as some people make it out to be.  At least in my opinion.

or an implied "exists" or perhaps "is important."  ...because bacon [exists | is important].

[Trotsky]

Yes, my friends, it is the off season.

[Jim Hyla]

Yes, my friends, it is the off season

already.:`-(

[KeithK]

Agreed, but why do people care so much in the first place? I'm sure the highest-minded English teacher nowadays would sound like an uneducated bumpkin to Victorian elites. Language changes all the time.

Just because language changes doesn't mean people have to like it.

[Towerroad]

Agreed, but why do people care so much in the first place? I'm sure the highest-minded English teacher nowadays would sound like an uneducated bumpkin to Victorian elites. Language changes all the time.

Just because language changes doesn't mean people have to like it.

Get off my lawn!

[marty]

Off season already like off lawn

But I don't like

[marty]

http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2015/03/22_michigans_unwanted_new_streak.php

Big Ten woes as only one team advances and it's not Michigan (nor Wisconsin).

[Chuck Henderson]

The models above probably get at the basic result. If one wants to do a more complete analysis, a mixed model could be specified with random regressions of goals on years estimated for each NCAA team, conceptualized as deviations around an overall fixed regression [Henderson, Biometrics 1982, 38, 623-640]; teams also would be included as levels of a random classification factor. Cornell could be held out and estimated as an additional fixed regression. Then the homogeneity of the 2 fixed regressions could be tested; whether mean goals are different at a pre-specified year (e.g., 2015) also could be tested or, better, a simultaneous region (a range of years) of significant mean goal difference could be estimated.

Extensions: Instead of a single overall fixed regression, estimate one for each league (and for independents), where the above approaches could compare, for example, Cornell to the ECAC average. Instead of using goals for a season, use goals for each game (perhaps overkill), adding games as an additional random factor; this model would likely best be specified in terms of count data, with a log link and Poisson or negative binomial error. Nonlinear models could be looked at, although the scatter over the somewhat limited number of years doesn't suggest nonlinearity.

The conclusion may not be much different, but any tests of significance would be better based. By inspection, as others have commented, Cornell's 2003 and 2015, particularly in combination, look like pretty influential points. Whether one thinks low goal scoring is Cornell's future depends quite a lot on how much this season was a special case.

[Chuck Henderson]

Setting statistical models aside, I don't think recent lack of success is as much style, speed, or match-ups as some seem to think.  It's greater parity overall and the fading of Cornell's traditional advantages.  While it should not be difficult to get back to ECAC top 4, although there are now many more contenders, it's likely going to be difficult to do much more.

In a moneyball sense, Cornell has had several competitive advantages over the decades, none of which really holds now: Canadian recruiting; emphasis on defense (followed subsequently by Union and now pretty much the whole ECAC); rink atmosphere (fading steadily); winning tradition (too far in the past and no longer readily distinguishable from other ECAC teams).

I fail to see how the "rising tide" scenario remotely helps Cornell.  We're in competition with more teams for the same players. Our advantage was much greater when we could say that we (along with Harvard) were the place to have national hockey success and prestigious education.

Where is the advantage coming from ongoing to be something better than an average upper-half ECAC team, for Schafer or any coach?  I think the problem is deeper than the coaching. Is it really likely that he has lost the ability to coach?  Maybe it's harder to get the current college-age players to buy in to what's needed (does the Schafer system require more in this regard than others?).

It would seem it comes down more to recruiting.  I suppose it's possible Schafer has lost some of the needed energy in that area, and the assistant coaches may well be less good recruiters than some in the past.  But this relates directly to the loss of advantages over other ECAC teams.  Maybe it's also partially a matter of emphasis: Cornell has recruited NHL prospects as well or better than others; Yale, a few years ago, constructed a great college team, which is sometimes slightly different.  The point about Cornell players being younger now than in some years past and than for some other teams now (while a good thing) could be having an effect.  Larger recruiting classes should help, protecting against early departures and injuries and increasing the chances of finding a player who really develops.

If someone like Greg is now at least open to thinking about a coaching change, things really have shifted.  I suppose I almost am, too.  But in discussions about changing baseball managers--and this would be the same--I'm usually saying to watch out what one wishes for (except in certain very obvious cases where a change has to be made); things could and likely will be worse.  It doesn't seem there's any obvious alternative where the likelihood of improvement is greater than not.  I suppose most of us wouldn't mind seeing what Nieuwendyk could do, if he ever wanted that kind of job.  But it seems certain he wouldn't take it in a situation where Schafer was dismissed.

For those who wanted Harvard to beat Quinnipiac, one should never want them to be only a game away from winning another ECAC championship; they've now edged closer to our total.

[Trotsky]

For those who wanted Harvard to beat Quinnipiac, one should never want them to be only a game away from winning another ECAC championship; they've now edged closer to our total.

That is true.

[BMac]

I love that you cited yourself. That's awesome.

Also, when googling for your article, I found this. Did you know that you made part of Tennessee law?

[Jim Hyla]

For those who wanted Harvard to beat Quinnipiac, one should never want them to be only a game away from winning another ECAC championship; they've now edged closer to our total.

That is true.

But I'd be happy if Q never won one.

[Trotsky]

For those who wanted Harvard to beat Quinnipiac, one should never want them to be only a game away from winning another ECAC championship; they've now edged closer to our total.

That is true.

But I'd be happy if Q never won one.

I'd be happy if nobody but us ever won another one.

But right now my specific loathing is for Q and UC.  Plus Brown can never win because Apocalypse.

Don't share this, but I never believe the season has been "legitimate" unless Cornell, Harvard, or a North County school wins.  The rest are sort of "bye" years.  Which has made recent history uneventful.

Legit years by decade:

80s, 5: 80, 83, 87, 88, 89
90s: 7: 91, 92, 93, 94, 96, 97, 99
00s: 8: 00, 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07
10s: 2: 10, 15

[pfibiger]

We've spent a lot of time talking about whether Schafer is/should be on the hot seat -- do we think any ECAC coaches are going to leave their posts this year? Seth Appert kept getting contract extensions, and is under contract 'til 2021. Fogarty is brand new at Princeton. How warm is Whittet's seat at Brown? Casey at Clarkson? Will we see any assistant turnover?