adam picks BC to win it all

[interested]

http://msn.espn.go.com/ncaa/s/wodonpicks.html

[Jim Hyla]

No, not to win it all, but to beat us.:-(

[Alan]

Shame on you Adam!

Just Kidding! No one can say that he wasn't objective!

[Josh '99]

Adam has as much faith in the team as the rest of us.  He just didn't want to woof in such a highly visible forum.  :-D

[Erik]

Who is Adam? A cornell alumni?

[Tom Shen \'01 \'02]

Adam Wodon is the voice of Big Red hockey.

[adamw]

Folks ... please don't take those picks seriously.

I didn't even realize this was a topic of controversy until I just got home.

I never, ever make public predictions.  I was forced to - and basically, was trying not to be biased, and not to put the whammy on.

It's just a cockamamie bracket.  It means nothing - and I've explained that to the coaches and players.

I never make predictions, because in sports, it's way too easy to be wrong .... There's a number of teams capable of winning it all, and there's absolutely no reason why Cornell can't be one of them.

Hope that clears that all up.

[ugarte]

From my perspective, I wouldn't say that "controversy" is the right word - but you can hardly expect that we wouldn't notice, Adam.

I assumed nothing more than that you picked who you felt would win at the time you were filling out the brackets, and might not feel that way tomorrow.  I also assume that you would rather be wrong than right about the Cornell/BC game, should that be the second round matchup.



Post Edited (03-24-03 01:56)

[adamw]

I'm saying that I'd rather not make any predictions, and just root like heck (inside). :-)

[Jeff Hopkins \'82]

heck?   :-D

I don't think so.

[kingpin248]

I put together a program that simulates the playing of the tournament based on the head-to-head winning percentages derived from KRACH. I ran the simulation 10,000,000 times. (This is similar to what LaxPower does each spring.) Below is the breakdown of how many times each team won the title, and the projected odds of winning:

 # Team                       Wins      Pct            Odds
 1 Colorado College         2,258,109  22.58%          3.43
 2 Cornell                  1,477,366  14.77%          5.77
 3 Minnesota                1,441,153  14.41%          5.94
 4 New Hampshire            1,246,373  12.46%          7.02
 5 Boston College             758,006   7.58%         12.19
 6 Boston University          678,266   6.78%         13.74
 7 Maine                      574,233   5.74%         16.41
 8 North Dakota               335,466   3.35%         28.81
 9 Michigan                   320,582   3.21%         30.19
10 Ferris State               282,941   2.83%         34.34
11 Minn. St.-Mankato          236,352   2.36%         41.31
12 St. Cloud State            146,305   1.46%         67.35
13 Harvard                    133,897   1.34%         73.68
14 Ohio State                 110,703   1.11%         89.33
15 Wayne State                    241   0.00%     41,492.78
16 Mercyhurst                       7   0.00%  1,428,570.43

The odds are interpreted as XX-to-1, where XX is the number in a team's row.  The #1 seeds, as a group, have a substantially better shot than everybody else.

I have posted at http://www.people.cornell.edu/pages/mfc22/HOCKYSIM.EXE a modified version of the program. It plays the tournament the same way, but runs the simulations one at a time and displays them.



Post Edited (03-24-03 11:38)

[Tub(a)]

If I bet a dollar on Mercyhurst, will you pay me $1,428,570.43 when they win? :-D

[CrazyLarry]

But, two other analysts picked the Big Red to win it all...

[Petunia LiCicero \'95]

Hey Adam,
I was surprised to see someone who actually knew something about college hockey on the ESPN selection show!
Very nice.

[Al DeFlorio]

Do you think Mel Allen ever picked the Dodgers...