If the Season Ended Today: Thoughts on Regional Pairings

[jd212]

Tom,  you really need to stop writing your thoughts down word for word because it's very hard to follow one long run-on sentence kinda like this one.

[Keith K]

Well clearly the solution is to shaft the #5 teams from the HE and WCHA.  After all, does Hockey East really need more than half their teams in the tourney? If you can't get home ice why should you play the national championship, criteria be damned.

This really is less fun when there are few HE/WCHA fans on this board... :-D

[Josh '99]

If you have five teams from any one conference, it's impossible to avoid a potential second-round matchup, regardless of any other considerations.  But my point was more that if there's no mention of even trying to avoid them, then I guess it wouldn't be terribly surprising to see two HE teams in Worcester and two in Providence, with two WCHA teams in Minneapolis and two in Ann Arbor, rather than trying to limit it to one potential second-round conference matchup for each.

[colo83]

  So this weekend  we become UMass and  BU fans and to a lesser extent Merrimanck tonight?  Also, let us not become jaded and forget our own litttle tournament in Albany. Could very well be an all Ivy event.

[Ken 70]

If Maine loses two comparisons they are now winning, and at least one is to UNH, then Maine goes to #4, everything being approx. equal.  That may mean they go west.  But you're right, it won't matter much for Cornell if Providence is still in the mix because UNH will be at Worcester while we're slugging it out against Prov., NoDak and Ohio St.

Providence has an excellent chance of losing the last at-large spot for several reasons:

1. They only make it if all 4 major conference tournaments are won by a top 14 PWR team.  If Harvard or Dartmouth win the ECAC tournament, for example, only the top 13 PWR teams make it, and Prov. is out (as of today).

2. The RPI difference between Prov. and MSU is .0034.  Prov. has 3 remaining RS games against teams with records of: .656, .656, .383.
MSU has 6 remaining RS games against records of: .750, .750, .797, .797, .469, .469.
If the TUC and COp comparisons don't change, MSU is in a good spot to win RPI and the entire comparison.

For this, and other seeding reasons, Cornell fans should be rooting for BU to win out.

[Tom Pasniewski 98]

Well, right now by the slimmest of a margin of .0003, Cornell wins the tiebreaker with Maine and is #2 in the PWR.   Though it's apt to change, going strictly by the numbers that puts Cornell in the 2-15 pairing.  But it's more than just the 2-15 pairing, it's really the 2-28 pairing given UAH's PWR ranking.  

So, to avoid Maine-PC or even UNH-PC in the first round is it fair if Cornell should finish #2 to make them play the #14 team vs. the #28 team for the sake of keeping a host, that's gouging fans on ticket prices, in their home region and avoiding an intraconference matchup?  I've never wanted a team to collapse so badly so they didn't come into play.  Kind of sad if things stay the way they are, that Providence would have to go on the road for the first round of the Hockey East tournament, yet get home ice for the first round of the NCAA tournament.  As long as Cornell remains #2, I refuse to pair them with Providence.  With that, my take on NCAA pairings for 2/21 'if the season ended today'.  

Worcester:
Cornell (2)
Boston University (
North Dakota (9)
CHA (15)

Providence:
Maine (3)
Boston College (6)
Ohio State (12)
Providence (14)

Ann Arbor:
UHN (4)
St. Cloud State (7)
Michigan (11)
Denver (13)

Minneapolis:
Colorado College (1)
Minnesota (5)
Ferris State (10)
MAAC (16)

[colo83]

  Four quick observations:
 
    1)   I am getting a little tired of St. Cloud.

    2)   The CCHA is realy going to be bent out of shape if HE gets five.

     3)  Tonight's allies are BU, UMass, MSU and Mankato.
   
     4)  We are all becoming better composers/typists due to the inflicted    
          shame for  either type of error.   But that's OK, it's part of the game.

[Jim Hyla]

Ken said[Q]4) We are all becoming better composers/typists due to the inflicted
shame for either type of error. But that's OK, it's part of the game.[/Q]Not only is it OK, it's good.

[Chris 02]

One could hope for an upset in the CCHA tournament as well.  Throw Michigan State or Miami into the mix and you chop off #14 in the PWR.

[Greg Berge]

Not only is it OK, it's good.

Not only is it good, it is well.

[DeltaOne81]

[Q]Not only is it good, it is well.[/Q]
Acttualee, eye thunk ist dum ;-)

[Q]As long as Cornell remains #2, I refuse to pair them with Providence. With that, my take on NCAA pairings for 2/21 'if the season ended today'. [/Q]
Can't say the committee will agree with ya - since avoiding intraconference matchups is an official priority, but giving #2 an eaiser time is not.

I'm looking at the seeding criteria and the first one says that the top 4 are placed so that it will be 1 vs. 4, 2 vs. 3, in the Frozen 4, if they all advance - so the key question here is... what's the FF matchups? E-E, W-W? or some crossover?

Edit: it looks like E-E, W-W according to USCHO, so I will see how the pairings work out, starting with that basis.

Edit2: without looking at what you had done (other than knowing the whole Cornell/Maine Prov/CHA issue), I got the same exact think, except, as I said above, we still play Prov @ Prov.

[Josh '99]

According to the official NCAA document linked above, avoiding first-round conference matchups is a priority for the selection committee.  Creating a bracket that looks like the ideal 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, etc...  seeding for a 16-team tournament is NOT on the list of priorities.  Maine won't get paired with Providence for a first-round game.

[DeltaOne81]

Yup, though I think the committee will like to properly pair teams when possible - so the best plays the easiest, etc... but it's certainly one of those "when possible" things, while no first-round conference matchups is an absolute (unless impossible, I suppose).

[Ken 70]

Hate to say it, but the most likely upset is probably from the ECAC (Hahvahd).

Next would be Mich St.  Except for WMU, who they haven't played, they've beaten all the other CCHA teams at least once.

It's a long shot to think Merrimack or UMASS could win the HE tournament.

Likewise with Minn.-Duluth or lower in the WCHA.

A thread at USCHO.COM is speculating that if Providence doesn't make it then Cornell is going to Ann Arbor as #1 seed.  (Ithaca is much closer to the Mid West reg. site than Orono or Durham NH).  I don't believe it based on what the NCAA guidelines seem to say.

Providence is one of the hotest teams in country right now, hate to face them in game 1 in their home town. ::uhoh::

[DeltaOne81]

the USCHO people are wrong as usual :-) - as you said, attendance/distance is not the priority

but this gave me an interesting thought...

Let's say, in some year (not saying this year), the 1/4 or 2/3 teams are from the same conference - let's say Maine and UNH end up 2/3 or something, a 4th seed (not 4 overall, 4th seed) is grabbed by Providence who is a host. Then you have to keep Providence in the east, but that also seems to set up a first round conference matchup.

The choices, as far as I see it, are:
1) put Prov as a 3 seed in their region and thereby break rule 'e'
2) move the host west and break rule 'h'
or
3) Move Maine/UNH west, bringing 1/4 east, avoiding the conference matchup, and following all the rules, but at the same time putting the top two eastern seeds out west

What would you do? What would the committee do?

Edit: or, of course, you could always just break part of rule 'j' and deal with the first-rounder