Selection Show

[Rita]

[quote KeithK][quote DeltaOne81][quote Jeff Hopkins '82]I'd love it if Wilkes-Barre could hold a regional, but it only seats about 8,000 for hockey.  I don't think that's big enough for the NC$$.[/quote]

Arena at Harbor yard for next year (and 2011) is only 8500. Same with the Mullins Center (UMass-Amherst) that held a regional a couple years ago.

They do tend to prefer venues in the mid-teens, but they haven't shown any refusal to drop to 8K or so.[/quote]
I was under the impression that the regionals generally don't sell out anyway.  Or have things changed in the last few years without me noticing?[/quote]

There weren't too many empty seats in 2006 in Green Bay. I think the regionals held in the west on (or very near) a campus with the host team in it do sellout.

[KeithK]

[quote Rita][quote KeithK][quote DeltaOne81][quote Jeff Hopkins '82]I'd love it if Wilkes-Barre could hold a regional, but it only seats about 8,000 for hockey.  I don't think that's big enough for the NC$$.[/quote]

Arena at Harbor yard for next year (and 2011) is only 8500. Same with the Mullins Center (UMass-Amherst) that held a regional a couple years ago.

They do tend to prefer venues in the mid-teens, but they haven't shown any refusal to drop to 8K or so.[/quote]
I was under the impression that the regionals generally don't sell out anyway.  Or have things changed in the last few years without me noticing?[/quote]

There weren't too many empty seats in 2006 in Green Bay. I think the regionals held in the west on (or very near) a campus with the host team in it do sellout.[/quote]
That sounds familiar.  But attendance at eastern regionals is more relevant to a Cornell or SWB bid.

[Beeeej]

[quote Rita][quote KeithK]I was under the impression that the regionals generally don't sell out anyway.  Or have things changed in the last few years without me noticing?[/quote]

There weren't too many empty seats in 2006 in Green Bay. I think the regionals held in the west on (or very near) a campus with the host team in it do sellout.[/quote]

My recollection is that Day 2 of Worcester in 2002 and both days of Providence in 2003 were awfully close to sold out, if not actually sold out.  Not everybody attends both games any given day, which could create a different impression.

[Rita]

[quote Beeeej][quote Rita][quote KeithK]I was under the impression that the regionals generally don't sell out anyway.  Or have things changed in the last few years without me noticing?[/quote]

There weren't too many empty seats in 2006 in Green Bay. I think the regionals held in the west on (or very near) a campus with the host team in it do sellout.[/quote]

My recollection is that Day 2 of Worcester in 2002 and both days of Providence in 2003 were awfully close to sold out, if not actually sold out.  Not everybody attends both games any given day, which could create a different impression.[/quote]

2003 due in part to BC making it to the regional finals v. Cornell and 2002 BU was in the Worcester regional final. 2002 was the last year of the 12 team tourney with the top 4 teams getting the first round bye (thank goodness).

[CM cWo 44]

Yost is also in the mid 6000s in capacity and has hosted regionals recently. Assuming UM gets in, that'll always sell out.

It seems like the minimum for a non-campus arena in now 10,000. Bridgeport, Green Bay, and Grand Rapids are each almost exactly that amount.

[jkahn]

[quote Beeeej]

My recollection is that Day 2 of Worcester in 2002 and both days of Providence in 2003 were awfully close to sold out, if not actually sold out.  Not everybody attends both games any given day, which could create a different impression.[/quote]
Providence was only packed in our quarter of the ice.  I'd guess they were at about 2/3 of the 11,000 hockey capacity.  In Minny and Green Bay, you'd be hard pressed to find an empty seat, at least while the Minnesota and Wisconsin games were being played.  A question for a place like Scranton is how well would they draw if Cornell wasn't in it.  Unlike Providence, Worcester and Albany, is it too remote from college hockey interests to attract a lot of casual college hockey fans?

[pat]

[quote KeithK]
I don't think geography is a requirement when it comes to hosting.  One of the Alaska schools "hosted" the Anaheim FF a few years back.  Based on that standard, we could host in Philadelphia or DC.[/quote]

Based on that standard, WE could have hosted in Anaheim.

[Josh '99]

[quote pat][quote KeithK]
I don't think geography is a requirement when it comes to hosting.  One of the Alaska schools "hosted" the Anaheim FF a few years back.  Based on that standard, we could host in Philadelphia or DC.[/quote]

Based on that standard, WE could have hosted in Anaheim.[/quote]Sure, but the further away the hosting school is from the venue, the more difficult it is to coordinate things, and (for regionals) the less the benefit of automatic placement.

[KeithK]

[quote Josh '99][quote pat][quote KeithK]
I don't think geography is a requirement when it comes to hosting.  One of the Alaska schools "hosted" the Anaheim FF a few years back.  Based on that standard, we could host in Philadelphia or DC.[/quote]

Based on that standard, WE could have hosted in Anaheim.[/quote]Sure, but the further away the hosting school is from the venue, the more difficult it is to coordinate things, and (for regionals) the less the benefit of automatic placement.[/quote]
Well, there's about zero chance they'll hold a regional in a non-traditional site like Anaheim, so placement isn't really an issue.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

The other thing is Albany, Bridgeport and Worcester are locked in for several years.  We're looking at 2012 or later here.

While we're dreaming, thay could always hold a regional at the Spectrum in Philly.  That is, if they don't knock it down to build a shopping mall.

[jtwcornell91]

FYI, I just wrote an article over at CHN, estimating the each team's chances to win various numbers of games in the NCAAs using KRACH: http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2008/03/27_whatare.php

[ugarte]

[quote jtwcornell91]FYI, I just wrote an article over at CHN, estimating the each team's chances to win various numbers of games in the NCAAs using KRACH: http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2008/03/27_whatare.php[/quote]
It's strange - the math looks right, but I ran it for the years 2000 - 2007 and it gives Harvard a nonzero number. You might want to tinker.

[David Harding]

I'm afraid you have slipped up in the second round (and perhaps later).  Your numbers violate unitarity.  Taking the numbers at face value, we only have a 72.272% chance of having any team win four games.  

For everyone else:  If we add up the percentages after one round, the grand total should be 800% because eight teams win at least one game.  That's good.  If we add up the percentages for winning two games, the total should be 400% because four teams win at least two games.  In your table the total is 374%.  With each region the total should be 100%, but the numbers vary from 89.5 to 96.2.

Edit:  I see that another Dave has made the same observation on the CHN comments.

Re-edit: I disagree with a few of Dave, Madison's numbers at the one or two tenths of a percent level, but I won't claim perfection.

[jtwcornell91]

Yep, there was a bug in how opponents for later rounds were determined, related to the different ways Perl and PHP handle the modulus function (and the fact that I only checked the results for teams not impacted by that problem).  It's been fixed now, and the probabilities add up to 100% within roundoff error.

[marty]

[quote jtwcornell91]FYI, I just wrote an article over at CHN, estimating the each team's chances to win various numbers of games in the NCAAs using KRACH: http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2008/03/27_whatare.php[/quote]

I like the concept and I love the hard work that you put into this project, yet three of the games yesterday were good arguments for playing (and watching) the games rather than worrying about who should win.

My conclusion is that there isn't a better game to watch than college hockey.  As a corollary, I propose that there isn't a better game for which to run that simulation - if only because we appreciate it as fans.