Bracket Projections

[JordanCS]

Ahh...sorry...was thinking tonight was the last game of the season for some reason.  (See, told you I wasn't in to hoops...I'm much more concerned about clinching a bye in hockey.)

[ugarte]

Thinking about seeding, the postseason tournaments aren't helping us much.

* Ohio: ended up in the middle of the MAC and lost in the quarters of the conference tourney

* Syracuse: near the bottom of the Big East, got destroyed in the first round by Villanova (who went and got destroyed by G'town in the QF)

* Bucknell: ended up near the bottom of the Patriot league, and lost in the semis.

On the other hand, Siena won the conference and regular season MAAC titles and Colgate is still alive for the championship of the Patriot. If Colgate gets in, Cornell will be 1-2 against other teams in the tournament.

Colgate is more or less guaranteed a 16 seed, and our losses to Bucknell, Ohio and Syracuse are all to schools that weren't good enough to get an at-large bid. Siena probably wouldn't be good enough either. I think a 13 is the best we can hope for and at this point might be a reach.

[Al DeFlorio]

USA Today pegged us a 14th-seed against #3 Louisville in today's brackets, IIRC.

[jksnake06]

Based on gut feel and what the experts are predicting, I'd give us a 30% chance at a 13 seed, a 68% chance at a 14 seed and a 2% chance at a 15 seed.

[ugarte]

Colgate down by two with the ball and 31 seconds left. Highlight reel finish TK.
Whoops. Misread the gamecast. American is up by 3 with 19 seconds left and Colgate had to foul again. This one is probably over.

American is up by 5 and Colgate missed the shot and didn't get the rebound. It doesn't take a genius to call this one.

[jksnake06]

American is a likely 15 or 16 seed.  Our RPI suffers a bit but not a big deal.

To get a 13, we probobly need someone other than Utah St. and Nevada to win the WAC or Stephen F. Austin to lose in their tourney (maybe both).

[Josh '99]

[quote jksnake06]American is a likely 15 or 16 seed.  Our RPI suffers a bit but not a big deal.

To get a 13, we probobly need someone other than Utah St. and Nevada to win the WAC or Stephen F. Austin to lose in their tourney (maybe both).[/quote]Huh.  As confusing as the hockey seeding process is, this is way more fucked up.

[jksnake06]

Basically, we want teams worse than us to win their conference tournaments.  In the Southland Conference, the only team better than us is Stephen F. Austin.  Thus, if someone else gets the autobid from that conference, we get bumped up a slot.

Another conference to watch is the Big West- we'd like UC Santa Barbara to lose.

[Josh '99]

We want teams worse than us getting autobids because they'll get lower seeds, basically?  (Whereas to use your example, Stephen F. Austin is better than us, but not good enough to get an at-large bid?)

[jksnake06]

exactly.  The only teams that are going to be seeded below us are going to be autobids... we'll be below even the worst at large teams.

So we want as many bad teams as possible getting in the field via the autobid.

[Rita]

ESPN and Joe Lunardi still had Cornell as a #13 seed, now playing a #4 Notre Dame (date line on that projection was 3/14 and I assume takes into account last night's results).

[jksnake06]

Stephen F. Austin lost- the Southland champ is now likely to be below us.

Utah St. and Nevada lost in the WAC, giving us a very good chance of being above the champ from that conference.

UC Santa Barbara, who may or may not have been ahead of us, lost in the Big West tournament... the remaining teams are all likely to be above CU.

Cornell was potentially bumped up 3 spots, and our chances of a 13 seed have gone up dramatically.

[ugarte]

[quote jksnake06]UC Santa Barbara, who may or may not have been ahead of us, lost in the Big West tournament... the remaining teams are all likely to be above CU.[/quote]You meant Irvine and Fullerton are likely behind CU, correct? I'm not positive this will be true, but it certainly might be. The WAC champ is going to be pretty close to us as well. The Southland champ is definitely going to be behind us - they have the 5 and 7 seeds playing for the title. If Northwestern State wins, they are probably in the PIG.

[jtwcornell91]

[quote jksnake06]we'd like UC Santa Barbara to lose.[/quote]

Speak for yourself, bucko! ::mad::

[jy3]

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