You Are The Committee

[jtwcornell91]

Less fun, since Cornell's not involved, but if you want to see how ECAC participation in the NCAAs can be maximized:

http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/yatc.php

[Chris 02]

With .003 bonus, the following results get Dartmouth, St. Lawrence, and Clarkson all into the tournament.  Can anyone get Q in without the autobid?

CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Notre Dame defeats Lake Superior.
CCHA Championship game: Notre Dame defeats Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Lake Superior defeats Michigan State.
ECACHL Semifinal #2: Dartmouth defeats Clarkson.
ECACHL Semifinal #1: St. Lawrence defeats Quinnipiac.
ECACHL Championship game: Dartmouth defeats St. Lawrence.
ECACHL Consolation game: Clarkson defeats Quinnipiac.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Massachusetts.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats New Hampshire.
WCHA Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats Michigan Tech.
WCHA Semifinal #2: St. Cloud State defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Army defeats Connecticut.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Army defeats Sacred Heart.

[Dpperk29]

not that anyone cares, but the following with a .003 bonus gives a 2-wat tie for 1st, 2 way tie for 3rd, 3-way tie for 5th, and 3 way tie for 8th. I bet the committee would shit a brick if that happened.

    *  Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Connecticut defeats Army.
    * Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Sacred Heart.
    * Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats Connecticut.
    * CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
    * CCHA Semifinal #1: Lake Superior defeats Notre Dame.
    * CCHA Championship game: Lake Superior defeats Michigan.
    * CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Notre Dame.
    * ECAC Semifinal #2: Clarkson defeats Dartmouth.
    * ECAC Semifinal #1: St. Lawrence defeats Quinnipiac.
    * ECAC Championship game: Clarkson defeats St. Lawrence.
    * ECAC Consolation game: Quinnipiac defeats Dartmouth.
    * Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Boston University.
    * Hockey East Semifinal #1: Massachusetts defeats New Hampshire.
    * Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Massachusetts.
    * WCHA Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats Michigan Tech.
    * WCHA Semifinal #2: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
    * WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
    * WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
    * WCHA Consolation game: Wisconsin defeats St. Cloud State.

 and these results get clarkson and SLU in, with clarkson the number 4 seed

    *  Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Connecticut defeats Army.
    * Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Sacred Heart.
    * Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats Connecticut.
    * CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
    * CCHA Semifinal #1: Lake Superior defeats Notre Dame.
    * CCHA Championship game: Lake Superior defeats Michigan.
    * CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Notre Dame.
    * ECAC Semifinal #2: Clarkson defeats Dartmouth.
    * ECAC Semifinal #1: St. Lawrence defeats Quinnipiac.
    * ECAC Championship game: Clarkson defeats St. Lawrence.
    * ECAC Consolation game: Quinnipiac defeats Dartmouth.
    * Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Boston University.
    * Hockey East Semifinal #1: Massachusetts defeats New Hampshire.
    * Hockey East Championship game: Massachusetts defeats Boston College.
    * WCHA Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats Michigan Tech.
    * WCHA Semifinal #2: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
    * WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
    * WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
    * WCHA Consolation game: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin.

 

what can I say... I am bored in calculus...

[jkahn]

Edit: there was a problem in the YATC script, when the user tried a different scenario without hitting "start over" - which has now been fixed by JTW.  So disregard the interesting but incorrect results below.
Here's a really bizarre scenario, with mostly the favorites winning.  I've just emailed it to Adam W. at CHN as I thought he'd find it interesting/strange/etc.  In it SLU goes 1-1 but doesn't make it.  Mich. Tech goes 0-1 but does.  Vermont somehow makes the tournament.  St. Cloud goes 0-2 but jumps ahead of Minn. who goes 2-0.  And BU loses to UNH but jumps ahead of them.  As I said in my email to Adam, am I hallucinating?

Bonus=.003
   Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Army defeats Connecticut.
   Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force.
   Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Sacred Heart defeats Army.
   CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
   CCHA Semifinal #1: Notre Dame defeats Lake Superior.
   CCHA Championship game: Notre Dame defeats Michigan.
   CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Lake Superior.
   ECAC Semifinal #2: Clarkson defeats Dartmouth.
   ECAC Semifinal #1: St. Lawrence defeats Quinnipiac.
   ECAC Championship game: Clarkson defeats St. Lawrence.
   ECAC Consolation game: Dartmouth defeats Quinnipiac.
   Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Boston College.
   Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Massachusetts.
   Hockey East Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
   WCHA Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats Michigan Tech.
   WCHA Semifinal #2: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
   WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
   WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.
   WCHA Consolation game: Wisconsin defeats St. Cloud State.

   1 [AQ] Notre Dame (Nt) 24
   2t St. Cloud State (SC) 20
   2t [AQ] Minnesota (Mn) 20
   4t Boston University (BU) 19
   4t [AQ] New Hampshire (NH) 19
   4t [AQ] Clarkson (Ck) 19    
   7t Boston College (BC) 17      
   7t Maine (Me) 17
   9t Massachusetts (MA) 16    
   9t North Dakota (ND) 16
   11 Michigan (Mi) 15
   12t Vermont (Vt) 11
   12t Michigan State (MS) 11 .      
   12t Michigan Tech (MT) 11
   12t Miami (Mm) 11
   16t Colorado College (CC) 9
   16t Denver (DU) 9
   16t Wisconsin (Wi) 9
   19 St. Lawrence (SL) 7
   20t Dartmouth (Da) 6

[jtwcornell91]

Jeff, I think something went wonky on you; when I run that scenario in YATC or the slack/tbrw DIY script, I get a more sensible:

Code Select Expand


1   [AQ] Minnesota (Mn)   24   .5839   Nt   Ck   NH   SC   BU   BC   Mi   MS   ND   MA   SL   Me   Mm   Da   Wi   DU   MT   CC   Vt   Qn   SH   LS   Cr   NO
2 [AQ] Notre Dame (Nt) 23 .5805* Ck NH SC BU BC Mi MS ND MA SL Me Mm Da Wi DU MT CC Vt Qn SH LS Cr NO
3 [AQ] Clarkson (Ck) 22 .5653 NH SC BU BC Mi MS ND MA SL Me Mm Da Wi DU MT CC Vt Qn SH LS Cr NO
4 [AQ] New Hampshire (NH) 21 .5694* SC BU BC Mi MS ND MA SL Me Mm Da Wi DU MT CC Vt Qn SH LS Cr NO
5 St. Cloud State (SC) 20 .5620 BU BC Mi MS ND MA SL Me Mm Da Wi DU MT CC Vt Qn SH LS Cr NO
6t Boston University (BU) 18 .5511 BC Mi ND MA SL Me Mm Da Wi DU MT CC Vt Qn SH LS Cr NO
6t Boston College (BC) 18 .5494* Mi MS ND MA SL Me Mm Da Wi DU MT CC Vt Qn SH LS Cr NO
8t Michigan (Mi) 16 .5494 MS MA SL Me Mm Da Wi DU MT CC Vt Qn SH LS Cr NO
8t Michigan State (MS) 16 .5402 BU MA SL Me Mm Da Wi DU MT CC Vt Qn SH LS Cr NO
10 North Dakota (ND) 15 .5570 Mi MS SL Mm Da Wi DU MT CC Vt Qn SH LS Cr NO
11 Massachusetts (MA) 14 .5333 ND SL Me Da Wi DU MT CC Vt Qn SH LS Cr NO
12t St. Lawrence (SL) 13 .5391 Me Mm Da Wi DU MT CC Vt Qn SH LS Cr NO
12t Maine (Me) 13 .5368 ND Mm Da Wi DU MT CC Vt Qn SH LS Cr NO
14 Miami (Mm) 12 .5349 MA Da Wi DU MT CC Vt Qn SH LS Cr NO
15t Dartmouth (Da) 9 .5365 Wi DU CC Vt Qn SH LS Cr NO
15t Wisconsin (Wi) 9 .5286 DU MT CC Vt Qn SH LS Cr NO
17t Denver (DU) 8 .5325 MT CC Vt Qn SH LS Cr NO
17t Michigan Tech (MT) 8 .5223 Da CC Vt Qn SH LS Cr NO
19 Colorado College (CC) 6 .5230 Vt Qn SH LS Cr NO
20 Vermont (Vt) 5 .5233 Qn SH LS Cr NO
21 Quinnipiac (Qn) 4 .5168 SH LS Cr NO
22 [AQ] Sacred Heart (SH) 3 .5139 LS Cr NO
23 Lake Superior (LS) 2 .5127 Cr NO
24 Cornell (Cr) 1 .5073 NO
25 Nebraska-Omaha (NO) 0 .5052

If you can recreate your results, please email me the sequence of steps you go through.

[jkahn]

John-
Email has been sent.  I was able to recreate again this afternoon, but don't usually get the result posted above.   There seems to be some inconsistency in the results.  I do have a printed copy though, which I can fax to you, just to prove I'm not crazy.

[Jim Hyla]

[quote jkahn]John-
Email has been sent.  I was able to recreate again this afternoon, but don't usually get the result posted above.   There seems to be some inconsistency in the results.  I do have a printed copy though, which I can fax to you, just to prove I'm not crazy.[/quote]

Well, do you really think that's enough to prove a point like that?::nut::

[jkahn]

[quote Jim Hyla][quote jkahn]John-
Email has been sent.  I was able to recreate again this afternoon, but don't usually get the result posted above.   There seems to be some inconsistency in the results.  I do have a printed copy though, which I can fax to you, just to prove I'm not crazy.[/quote]

Well, do you really think that's enough to prove a point like that?::nut::[/quote]
and I thought ugarte was our resident lawyer/comedian
-guess I should've just said "to prove I'm not hallucinating" which is what I was concerned about when I saw the PWR's that resulted.

[Avash]

This would get all four of this weekend's ECAC final four teams into the NCAA tournament:

Bonus of .003:

# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Army defeats Connecticut.
# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force.
# Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Sacred Heart defeats Army.
# CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
# CCHA Semifinal #1: Notre Dame defeats Lake Superior.
# CCHA Championship game: Notre Dame defeats Michigan.
# CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Lake Superior.
# ECAC Semifinal #2: Dartmouth defeats Clarkson.
# ECAC Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats St. Lawrence.
# ECAC Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Dartmouth.
# ECAC Consolation game: St. Lawrence defeats Clarkson.
# Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Boston University.
# Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Massachusetts.
# Hockey East Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Boston College.
# WCHA Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats Michigan Tech.
# WCHA Semifinal #2: St. Cloud State defeats North Dakota.
# WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
# WCHA Championship game: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota.
# WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.

[Chris '03]

[quote Avash '05]This would get all four of this weekend's ECAC final four teams into the NCAA tournament:

Bonus of .003:

# Hockey East Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Boston College.
[/quote]

That's all pretty reasonable-- except the whole University of No Hardware winning HEA :-P

[Chris 02]

After Friday's results, we can still get two ECAC teams into the tournament.  Clarkson has to win the AQ, and then the winner of the ECAC consolation seems to get in.  A tie does not work, both teams would be out.  I didn't play around too much with the results from other conferences, so that might affect things a little.

With .003 bonus,
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Army defeats Air Force.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Notre Dame.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Lake Superior.
ECAC Championship game: Clarkson defeats Quinnipiac.
ECAC Consolation game: Dartmouth defeats St. Lawrence.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats New Hampshire.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Consolation game: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin.

[Andy'07]

Wouldn't QU beating Clarkson get both teams in as well?

[marty]

[quote Andy'07]Wouldn't QU beating Clarkson get both teams in as well?[/quote]

Yes, I agree because I can't believe Clarkson stays home.

[Chris 02]

[quote marty][quote Andy'07]Wouldn't QU beating Clarkson get both teams in as well?[/quote]

Yes, I agree because I can't believe Clarkson stays home.[/quote]

Oops, yeah that would also get two.  I suppose I was trying to get three.

Here's a scenario where we still get 3:

Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Army defeats Air Force.
CCHA Championship game: Notre Dame defeats Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Lake Superior defeats Michigan State.
ECAC Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Clarkson.
ECAC Consolation game: St. Lawrence defeats Dartmouth.
Hockey East Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Boston College.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Consolation game: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin.

[DeltaOne81]

Note: all this is predicated on a 0.0030 q-win bonus. Bonuses of 0.040 or higher really hurt SLU

We can get 3 in. Q has to be #3 by winning the title. Then SLU ends up in a 2-way tie for 12th - which they should win, but even if they don't, 12 and 13 would both get in, as there are no more (other than Q) conference finalists who aren't already in the top 10 (UND is lowest at tied for 10th).

A tie would leave it very very close for SLU - but looks like 13th and they'd still make it.

Although I haven't played around much with many other conference results, so there's a decent chance other things could effect it. Long story short: the consy game is unusually important (for SLU). And I can't find a way that gets Dartmouth in, even with Wisconsin falling past them and Clarkson winning (so Q doesn't take up an at-large), I can only see them tied for 15th.

Edit: Okay, I see a way that Dartmouth ends up in a 4 way tie for 14th with a win, a tie which they *should* win (highest RPI and they beat 2 of the 3 other teams in PWC).

So here's a reverse question, other than with a high bonus, can anyone fin a way we only get 1 in?