PWR: 'Splain this to us again?

[Trotsky]

This is what I come up with.  'Splain to me where I go wrong.

Step 1.  Banding

Say we take today's (2/21; noon) .003/.002/.001 PWR:

----- Band 1 -----
01 Minnesota
02 Wisconsin
03 Miami
04 BU

----- Band 2 -----
05 Michigan State
06 UNO
07 CC
08 Cornell

----- Band 3 -----
09 Michigan
10 Maine
11 BC
12 OSU

----- Band 4 -----
13 Harvard
14 SLU
15 (AH/CHA 1)
16 (AH/CHA 2)



Correct so far?

Step 2.  Seeding 1-4

01 Minnesota
02 Wisconsin
03 Miami
04 BU


Step 3.  Placing 1-4.

Regional Sites (hosts):

A -- Albany (RPI)
W -- Worcester (BU)
N -- North Dakota (Duh)
G -- Green Bay (MTU)

Placing 1-4 (Closest, with automatic placement of host)

01 Minnesota (N)
02 Wisconsin (G)
03 Miami (A)
04 BU (W, host)

Step 4.  "Bracket Integrity, Part 1"

AKA, giving the best teams the easiest ride.

13 Harvard (W)
14 SLU (A)
15 (AH/CHA 1) (G)
16 (AH/CHA 2) (N)

No problems, since no intraconference matchups possible between 1st and 4th bands.

Step 5.  Seeding/Placing 5-8 and 9-12.

First pass:

05 Michigan State (W)
06 UNO (A)
07 CC (G)
08 Cornell (N)

09 Michigan (N)
10 Maine (G)
11 BC (A)
12 OSU (W)

But that gives a 5-12 CCHA match-up.  A solution: invert 11 and 12 (moving large-crowd BC closer to home).  But that just switches the CCHA pairing to 6-11.  The CCHA teams must be moved so that one occupies each slot in the 5/12; 6/11; 7/10; 8/9 table.  There are two 5/12's, so the way to move them and not unduly benefit one team 2 slots is to swap 11-12 and 6-7.  That yields:

That would give us a final seeding of:

01 Minnesota (N)
02 Wisconsin (G)
03 Miami (A)
04 BU (W, host)
05 Michigan State (W)
06 CC (A)
07 UNO (G)
08 Cornell (N)
09 Michigan (N)
10 Maine (G)
11 OSU (A)
12 BC (W)
13 Harvard (W)
14 SLU (A)
15 (AH/CHA 1) (G)
16 (AH/CHA 2) (N)

OK.  What did I do wrong?

[KeithK]

[q]OK. What did I do wrong?[/q]You forgot to include games played over the next four weekends. :-P

[Trotsky]

Nobody likes a smartass.  ;-)

Well, okay, a lot of us do like smartasses (a good thing, too).  But I was looking for a slightly more method-driven analysis...

[jtwcornell91]

Why do you think you did something wrong?

[Trotsky]

[Q]Why do you think you did something wrong?[/Q]

I'm married.

[Pete Godenschwager]

The only thing I noticed was that since you haven't explicitly stated the AH/CHA bids, their TUC status isn't factored into the PWR. That's not necessarily wrong, though, since it would only be a guess as to what those teams would be anyway.

[KeithK]

What you've posited looks credible based on the methodology employed over the last several years.

[RatushnyFan]

[quote Trotsky]Step 1.  Banding

Say we take today's (2/21; noon) .003/.002/.001 PWR:

----- Band 1 -----
01 Minnesota
02 Wisconsin
03 Miami
04 BU

----- Band 2 -----
05 Michigan State
06 UNO
07 CC
08 Cornell

----- Band 3 -----
09 Michigan
10 Maine
11 BC
12 OSU

----- Band 4 -----
13 Harvard
14 SLU
15 (AH/CHA 1)
16 (AH/CHA 2)



Correct so far?
[/quote]
Jason Moy comes up with a different rank order:
1 Minnesota
2 Wisconsin
3 Miami
4 Boston University
5 Michigan State
6 Nebraska-Omaha
7 Colorado College
8 Cornell
9 Maine (you had #10)
10 Michigan (you had #9)
11 Boston College
12 Harvard (you had #13)
13 Ohio State (you had #12)
14 St. Lawrence
15 Holy Cross
16 Alabama-Huntsville

http://www.uscho.com/news/id,12054/BracketologyFeb222006.html

"We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in Holy Cross and Alabama-Huntsville.

Now let's break the ties.

Boston University wins the individual comparison with Michigan State. Likewise, Maine wins the comparison with Michigan, Boston College with Harvard and St. Lawrence with Denver."

Then again, when I plug .003/.002/.001 into the PWR table, I get what you posted.  If Moy did it on 2/22/06, I don't see why we would have a difference.  He claims to be using the .003/.002/.001 bonus as well.

[heykb]

The PWR change when you make UAH a TUC.

Nice acronyms in that sentence. B-]

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

[quote heykb]The PWR change when you make UAH a TUC.

Nice acronyms in that sentence. B-][/quote]

FYI.  :-P