Alumni in the pros -- December 2014

Started by dbilmes, December 02, 2014, 08:18:18 PM

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ftyuv

Quote from: margolismPoor Scrivens again.  Two losses in his last two starts,  while giving up only three goals.  And 42 saves on 44 attempts last night, above .950  

The whole W-L for a goalie (or a pitcher in baseball) makes no sense.   If a goalie gives up two goals or less and saves 90% or more of their shots, the goalie should not be pegged with a loss.  Your team's lack of scoring is the reason for the loss, not the goalie.

Similarly, if you give up four or more goals and save less than 85% of shot attempts, you should not get a W if your team wins.

Why stop there? Why not weigh the SV% based on the quality of the opponents, and of your defense? You make a good argument for keeping wins or losses for the goalie at all, but "you get a win if your team wins, unless you played badly" seems like a step backwards.

margolism

I'm thinking small steps - highly unlikely that W-L would be eliminated entirely.  At least this approach doesn't penalize (or award) a goalie based on stellar (or lousy) performance.  

I think W-L for in hockey for a goalie is especially unimportant.  Here's an idea - maybe a goalie gets points based on the stars of the game.  5 pts = #1 star, 3 pts = #2 star, 1 pt = #3 star.  That is more performance driven, reflecting the context of the game, albeit subjective, obviously.  Nonetheless, if your team wins 6-5 and the goalie on the winning team make 8 of 13 saves, I seriously doubt he would be awarded one of the game's three stars.  Scrivens has received stars of the game in a number of his losses.  It would actually be interesting to apply this approach to all NHL players, and rank them at the end of the season using this scoring.  

It's kind of a crime that Gillam has 3 "losses."  His "4-3-1" on its own looks quite average, and does't come close to reflecting that he is #2 in the country in both save % and GAA.  In those three Cornell losses, I think one could easily argue that he kept Cornell in the game.  A loss implies "it's all your fault" which is what I hate about that dumb metric.

I think weighing SV% based on oppoonent quality, and of your defense, is a good idea, but becomes hard to report on a daily basis for a layperson.  It is, however, more indicative of performance.

Beeeej

Quote from: margolismIt's kind of a crime that Gillam has 3 "losses."  His "4-3-1" on its own looks quite average, and does't come close to reflecting that he is #2 in the country in both save % and GAA.  In those three Cornell losses, I think one could easily argue that he kept Cornell in the game.  A loss implies "it's all your fault" which is what I hate about that dumb metric.

...except that it doesn't imply that at all, because anybody who knows even the tiniest bit about hockey knows that your team has to score more goals than the other team to win games. Do you really think there are pro scouts out there looking at Gillam and dismissing him because he has a 4-3-1 record, rather than also noticing his Save % and GAA, and/or watching film? We keep track of a goalie's wins and losses because it's another stat that's helpful in context, not because anybody thinks it's a completely objective standard by which to judge them.
Beeeej, Esq.

"Cornell isn't an organization.  It's a loose affiliation of independent fiefdoms united by a common hockey team."
   - Steve Worona

KeithK

Quote from: Beeeej
Quote from: margolismIt's kind of a crime that Gillam has 3 "losses."  His "4-3-1" on its own looks quite average, and does't come close to reflecting that he is #2 in the country in both save % and GAA.  In those three Cornell losses, I think one could easily argue that he kept Cornell in the game.  A loss implies "it's all your fault" which is what I hate about that dumb metric.

...except that it doesn't imply that at all, because anybody who knows even the tiniest bit about hockey knows that your team has to score more goals than the other team to win games. Do you really think there are pro scouts out there looking at Gillam and dismissing him because he has a 4-3-1 record, rather than also noticing his Save % and GAA, and/or watching film? We keep track of a goalie's wins and losses because it's another stat that's helpful in context, not because anybody thinks it's a completely objective standard by which to judge them.
Exactly. The fact that a stat isn't a perfect reflection of a player's natural ability or performance or the fact that another stat gives a better measure of such doesn't make it useless or uninteresting to track.

Jim Hyla

Quote from: KeithK
Quote from: Beeeej
Quote from: margolismIt's kind of a crime that Gillam has 3 "losses."  His "4-3-1" on its own looks quite average, and does't come close to reflecting that he is #2 in the country in both save % and GAA.  In those three Cornell losses, I think one could easily argue that he kept Cornell in the game.  A loss implies "it's all your fault" which is what I hate about that dumb metric.

...except that it doesn't imply that at all, because anybody who knows even the tiniest bit about hockey knows that your team has to score more goals than the other team to win games. Do you really think there are pro scouts out there looking at Gillam and dismissing him because he has a 4-3-1 record, rather than also noticing his Save % and GAA, and/or watching film? We keep track of a goalie's wins and losses because it's another stat that's helpful in context, not because anybody thinks it's a completely objective standard by which to judge them.
Exactly. The fact that a stat isn't a perfect reflection of a player's natural ability or performance or the fact that another stat gives a better measure of such doesn't make it useless or uninteresting to track.

But it probably is useless.
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005

BearLover

I don't think there are actual NHL GMs who look at a goalie's W-L record anymore.  But SV% is a pretty good metric by which to evaluate goalies--or at least it factors into some of the advanced stats.

Larry72

Andy Iles is back in Florida. He signed with the Florida Everblades (ECHL) early in the month and played in his first game on December 19th winning 5-3 with a 23 save performance.  Everblades win 7th straight.
Larry Baum '72
Ithaca, NY

jeff '84

Ben #1 star in 3-2 Shootout win over LA Kings last night. 39 saves plus 4-4 in shootout. Back in net tonite vs. Flames.

sah67

It's a bit of a belated report, but Colin Greening finally scored his first goal of the season earlier in the week, although he didn't actually put it in the net. He was taken down on a breakaway towards Buffalo's empty net, and thus the goal was awarded automatically. Not the most glamorous of opportunities to cash in, but at least he's finally off the schneid.