RPI, Union at Lynah - possible outcome

[scoop85]

Nothing like replying to yourself.

Anyway, the ECAC leader primed for a fall?  Princeton.  Next week they play Union and RPI for the first time this season.  Honestly, I expect us to be ahead of or tied with Princeton by the end of next weekend.  A first-round bye is looking ever more reasonable.

Looking at Greg's chart of ECAC points by place, one can note that in top-6 vs. bottom-6 seasons, teams generally need 28 or so points to get fourth.  That would require us to go 6-2 over the next eight, which I think is doable if not likely.  We shall see.

6-2 might be asking a lot, considering that we have to play RPI, Yale and Union on the road.  But it never hurts to aim high!

[Scersk '97]

6-2 might be asking a lot, considering that we have to play RPI, Yale and Union on the road.  But it never hurts to aim high!

Our newly found (remembered?) ability to tie on the road might come in handy.  No shame in a hard-fought road tie.

I'd put our most likely path to "6-2" as two ties, a freak win, and a freak loss.  So, 5-1-2.  I'll prognosticate ties at RPI and Yale, a freak win at Union, a crucial win over Dartmouth at home, and a freak loss to Brown.

[billhoward]

Cornell really wants to get to third not just fourth in the ECACs or hope one of the 5-12 teams advances to the quarterfinals. It would be best to avoid meeting #1 Yale as long as possible.

[ajh258]

I think if the standings stay as they are right now, we are in a pretty good position for the post season.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if we are 6th, we will play #11 Harvard first round.

Then if we win, we will play #3 Princeton.

These two teams I'm confident that we can beat if we just show up with the desire to play. We don't need to excel, but just enough effort to beat them by a goal or two.

[billhoward]

We may be saying the same things differently and you're presuming the first-round play-in goes according to rating. IIRC, pairings are fluid. After both the first and second round, the highest survivor plays the lowest survivor. If Yale remains #1, after the first round bye Yale does not play the winner of the 8/9 play-in game but whoever's left that's worst. With a fixed seeding, last year #1 Yale would have played #8 Harvard (first round winner over #9 Princeton) but instead the Bulldogs got to feast on #11 Brown, upset winner over #6 RPI. And Yale promptly lost 2 games to 1. See this 2010 playoff grid: http://www.insidecollegehockey.com/6History/ecac_10.htm

Last year two of the first-round lower seeds won and in the quarterfinals two lower seeds won.

[Swampy]

We may be saying the same things differently and you're presuming the first-round play-in goes according to rating. IIRC, pairings are fluid. After both the first and second round, the highest survivor plays the lowest survivor. If Yale remains #1, after the first round bye Yale does not play the winner of the 8/9 play-in game but whoever's left that's worst. With a fixed seeding, last year #1 Yale would have played #8 Harvard (first round winner over #9 Princeton) but instead the Bulldogs got to feast on #11 Brown, upset winner over #6 RPI. And Yale promptly lost 2 games to 1. See this 2010 playoff grid: http://www.insidecollegehockey.com/6History/ecac_10.htm

Last year two of the first-round lower seeds won and in the quarterfinals two lower seeds won.

Yeah, I don't think one should assume rankings narrowly predict outcomes. The latter often depends on match-ups. Given the record over the past few years, we can safely say that Cornell does not match up well against Yale.

[marty]

We may be saying the same things differently and you're presuming the first-round play-in goes according to rating. IIRC, pairings are fluid. After both the first and second round, the highest survivor plays the lowest survivor. If Yale remains #1, after the first round bye Yale does not play the winner of the 8/9 play-in game but whoever's left that's worst. With a fixed seeding, last year #1 Yale would have played #8 Harvard (first round winner over #9 Princeton) but instead the Bulldogs got to feast on #11 Brown, upset winner over #6 RPI. And Yale promptly lost 2 games to 1. See this 2010 playoff grid: http://www.insidecollegehockey.com/6History/ecac_10.htm

Last year two of the first-round lower seeds won and in the quarterfinals two lower seeds won.

Yeah, I don't think one should assume rankings narrowly predict outcomes. The latter often depends on match-ups. Given the record over the past few years, we can safely say that Cornell does not match up well against Yale.

Except that we were fine against them at Lynah in December.  I am considering the no goal under Rondeau as he slid backward over the goal line.  On balance they were the better team against us, but this Saturday it looked like Yale was playing against the Pee-wees from RIP with RIP winning that game.  One note on the game Saturday.  RIP scored twice on a pivotal power play.  They were leading 2-1 when a delayed penalty was called.  They scored before the whistle and then again when on the 5x4 pp.  The resulting 4-1 spread made the rest of the game much less exciting.