You Are The Committee

jkahn · March 17, 2007, 11:58:47 AM

[quote DeltaOne81]

So here's a reverse question, other than with a high bonus, can anyone fin a way we only get 1 in?[/quote]
If Dartmouth and Clarkson win, there's a good chance we only get one. Dartmouth has a chance to get in, but it depends on a lot of other things happening.

jtwcornell91 · March 17, 2007, 12:33:32 PM

[quote jkahn][quote DeltaOne81]

So here's a reverse question, other than with a high bonus, can anyone fin a way we only get 1 in?[/quote]
If Dartmouth and Clarkson win, there's a good chance we only get one. Dartmouth has a chance to get in, but it depends on a lot of other things happening.[/quote]

Anyone with time to play with these want to single out the games in other conference that matter most for this?

oceanst41 · March 17, 2007, 12:59:14 PM

With .003 and favorites winning I tweaked individual games to see what would happen.

A LSSU win gets SLU out of the 12t up to an 11t, where an Air Force upset and Michigan upset did nothing to remove the 12th place tie. An Air Force win did get Clarkson a 1 seed for sure though.

A MSU/LSSU tie gets SLU to a 4 way tie for 10th, with SLU having the highest RPI (which is the tie breaker IIRC). A SCSU/UW tie does little to change the current view of the PWR.

A BC win or a Wisc. win both get Clarkson a sure 1 seed, but SLU stays tied at 12.

A ND upset of Minny gets SLU into 12th alone, Clarkson stays in a a messy tie for 3rd.

Obviously, a SLU loss to DC is the most important decision, dropping them all the way to 17th. As well as QU beating Clarkson to get another team in with the AQ.

So all the favorites winning the other games, the important individual games look to be SLU winning of course, followed by LSSU winning or tying, Air Force, BC, or Wisc. winning.

oceanst41 · March 17, 2007, 01:28:05 PM

As far as combinations look, again with .003 and favorites winning other games...(bolded combos appear to be the "best" ECAC scenario)

All upsets except for SLU puts them alone in 10th.

Air Force and LSSU winning puts SLU 11t and Clarkson 3t.

Air Force and BC winning puts SLU in a 3 way tie for 11th (with the highest RPI) and Clarkson alone in 4th.

Air Force and Wisc. winning puts Clarkson alone in 3rd and SLU unchanged from 12t.

Air Force and NoDak winning put SLU in a tie for 11th again with the highest RPI.

LSSU and Michigan winning puts SLU up to a 3 way tie for 10th (2nd highest RPI)

LSSU and Wisc. winning get SLU to a 11t (highest RPI) and Clarkson to 3rd alone

LSSU and NoDak winning get SLU to a 10t (highest RPI)

WCHA upsets (Wisc. and NoDak) yield Clarkson alone in 3rd and SLU tied with UMass for 11th (SLU having the higest RPI).

An important one here - SLU, QU, LSSU win and Clarkson is alone in 5th, QU gets the AQ and SLU is tied with Maine at 11 (SLU has the highest RPI) - Similarly, if SLU, QU, BC, and NoDak win (only SLU ties UMass at 11) or if SLU, QU, Wisc., and NoDak win.

Most of the other combinations keep SLU around their current 12th spot or bump them up to 11th but hurt Clarkson a lot, so I didn't include them. I think it's all correct. ::panic::

jkahn · March 17, 2007, 05:40:12 PM

Adam Wodon has a live pairwise blog going at
http://blog.collegehockeynews.com/?p=113

ursusminor · March 18, 2007, 12:16:08 AM

jtw,

Do you have the page available where you can see what would happen if you change the results of some games? I am curious if RPI's victory over Denver early in the year had the effect of getting SLU in the Tourney over Denver.

DeltaOne81 · March 18, 2007, 12:21:16 AM

[quote ursusminor]jtw,

Do you have the page available where you can see what would happen if you change the results of some games? I am curious if RPI's victory over Denver early in the year had the effect of getting SLU in the Tourney over Denver.[/quote]

I'm not John, but... seeing as its 5 AM in Berlin...

http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?rankings.diy

(use 'specify results' towards the bottom)

ursusminor · March 18, 2007, 12:45:07 AM

Thanks, DeltaOne81.

Good grief. Assuming I did it correctly, RPI's victory not only got SLU in over Denver, it put Clarkson in 3rd instead of 6th. ::rolleyes::

Actually, I am happy that there is a second ECAC team and would have preferred three, but helping Clarkson shouldn't be on the agenda.

DeltaOne81 · March 18, 2007, 11:23:00 AM

[quote ursusminor]
Good grief. Assuming I did it correctly, RPI's victory not only got SLU in over Denver, it put Clarkson in 3rd instead of 6th. ::rolleyes::

Actually, I am happy that there is a second ECAC team and would have preferred three, but helping Clarkson shouldn't be on the agenda.[/quote]

I think your only issue was you did it too soon. I think the script updates at 2 AM, if I remember correctly, so it didn't have yesterday's games yet when you did it. Therefore it didn't have Clarkson's victory of UNH's loss or several other things that pushed Clarkson up...

(Make sure you unclick 'Include RIT' too)

So I ran it now, and it does knock SLU out, but Clarkson stays at 3.

Same thing with our win over UNH. Take that away and clarkson stays at 3, but SLU is sitting home next weekend.

It does make sense. Out of conference wins are important. It raises the whole conference. For instance, RPI's (the team here, not the ranking) win over DU raised their win %age, which means that for whichever team played them, their opponent's win %age is that much higher, and we all play them twice.

Okay, so now all of the league has a higher opponent's win %age. That means for every game we play in league, our opponent's opponent's win %age is higher. So it impacts our RPI positively for every league game we play.

Btw, another way both those things hurt, is they knock us out of being a TUC, and SLU was of course 2-0 against us.

jtwcornell91 · March 18, 2007, 12:30:24 PM

[quote DeltaOne81]\\
I'm not John, but... seeing as its 5 AM in Berlin...
[/quote]

Actually, I'm in Louisiana this week, but it was beer o'clock in the Irish pub I was in, so thanks for the pickup.

ursusminor · March 18, 2007, 02:30:21 PM

I thought that games against RIT do count which is waht JTW sttes in his script. If I uncheck that button, SLU is 18th. Counting RIT, whom SLU beat, is a big effect.

DeltaOne81 · March 18, 2007, 02:32:26 PM

[quote ursusminor]I thought that games against RIT do count which is waht JTW sttes in his script. If I uncheck that button, SLU is 18th. Counting RIT, whom SLU beat, is a big effect.[/quote]

You're right. John's text says that. Interesting. I take it back

Will · March 18, 2007, 03:05:06 PM

[quote ursusminor]I thought that games against RIT do count which is waht JTW sttes in his script. If I uncheck that button, SLU is 18th. Counting RIT, whom SLU beat, is a big effect.[/quote]

As I understand it, RIT is a Team Under Consideration who was never actually under consideration. In other words, games against them count, but RIT doesn't get the benefit of being eligible for the NCAA Tournament.