ELynah Forum

Quote from: BearLover on November 09, 2025, 08:11:24 PM

Quote from: abmarks on November 08, 2025, 07:12:17 PMIve been checking in on Robertson's performance periodically hoping to find him publicly quoted.on why he left. has been Still haven't seen that, but saw this today:

QuoteMichigan Daily

"When (Robertson) went in the portal, it's like, 'Dude, you're made to play at Michigan' with how he thinks the game," Michigan coach Brandon Naurato said Tuesday. "And he's responsible too, he's not high risk, high reward. He makes the right play at the right time."

Who knows if that's the rationale in Robertson's mind, but it's along the lines of why I thought he left; a more natural for his game.

Based on his performance up there to date, looks like he's really getting to show what he can do when surrounded with high end talent playing in a high powered offense.  Two years there (vs. here) will give him a much better shot at sticking in the show.

It's not just his assists.

• 11 games, 0G, 11A, 11pts
• P/PG: T4 on the team at 1.0
• +/-: T1 at 11
• TOI: leads team 19:26
• PIM: 2
  
• Blocked Shots: 2d on the team with 18.leader has 21, but 3rd is all the way down at 13
  

CHN has developed their CHIP stat, which I have no technical knowledge or understanding of how good a stat that is, but CHN describes it as Akin to WAR in baseball

Amongst defensemen, he's trailing only BU's Cole Hutson and Ty Hanson of UMD.

As someone who has doomed plenty about losing Robertson, I think there's a lot in this thread that is just not correct.

Robertson's stats are inflated currently.

First of all, let's look at his 11 points (all assists, zero goals). 9 of these 11 points came in massive blowouts against weak opposition: four games against Mercyhurst and Robert Morris that Michigan won by a combined score of 32-5. In eight games against stronger opposition (Providence, WMU, Notre Dame, Wisconsin), Robertson has *two* assists.

Second, Michigan's other top offensive defenseman, Henry Mews, is out for the season. I suspect that means Robertson alone  is quarterbacking the top PP and will be on the ice whenever Michigan desperately needs a goal.

Third, Michigan has extremely high-end offensive talent that Cornell didn't have.

Putting this all together, I'm not surprised at all by Robertson's output and I think it is totally in line with how much he produced at Cornell. I don't agree that this is going to help him get an NHL contract. Whether he gets an NHL contract is a function of whether he is talented enough offensively to counteract the defensive liability of being an undersized defenseman. It is not a function of having more eyes on him or getting to play with more stars.

The NHL has eyes everywhere. It's why Dalton Bancroft was a hot commodity after his *sophomore* season, and it's why there was a bidding war for Sam Malinski. Robertson wasn't drafted because he's a defenseman under 6' who, despite having enough offensive talent to be a great college player, does not have the all-world skill of a Quinn Hughes or Adam Fox.

Thus far he is performing at expectation and I don't think going to Michigan is going to help him get to the NHL. As to why he left, I don't know, probably a combination of multiple factors including financial reasons, the coaching change, and style of play.

And yes, we'd be materially better if he was still on the team. Others can meme about it but him leaving was pretty backbreaking for our at-large chances this season given how thin the margins are.

You say he's undersized etc etc, but let's compare to Malinski.  Malinski was listed at 5 11, 189 his senior season, and he didn't have all world skills either.  He's been able to nail down a regular role in the show and I don't think anyone had him pegged as a sure thing NHLer.  Bancroft may have been a hot commodity, but he's also far from a lock to become a regular in the NHL.

Perhaps this is why Robertson transfered though:  This is how they do it in Ann Arbor.  (Warning, the music is NSFW)

Robertson is #21.   He wasn't going to get any practice in Ithaca on getting a takedown and a pin without having to throw a punch.

Check out wisco #17 at the beginning of the clip in the upper right.   I'd almost feel bad for him except...well he's from wisco.

Ive been checking in on Robertson's performance periodically hoping to find him publicly quoted.on why he left. has been Still haven't seen that, but saw this today:

QuoteMichigan Daily

"When (Robertson) went in the portal, it's like, 'Dude, you're made to play at Michigan' with how he thinks the game," Michigan coach Brandon Naurato said Tuesday. "And he's responsible too, he's not high risk, high reward. He makes the right play at the right time."

Who knows if that's the rationale in Robertson's mind, but it's along the lines of why I thought he left; a more natural for his game.

Based on his performance up there to date, looks like he's really getting to show what he can do when surrounded with high end talent playing in a high powered offense.  Two years there (vs. here) will give him a much better shot at sticking in the show.

It's not just his assists.

• 11 games, 0G, 11A, 11pts
• P/PG: T4 on the team at 1.0
• +/-: T1 at 11
• TOI: leads team 19:26
• PIM: 2
  
• Blocked Shots: 2d on the team with 18.leader has 21, but 3rd is all the way down at 13
  

CHN has developed their CHIP stat, which I have no technical knowledge or understanding of how good a stat that is, but CHN describes it as Akin to WAR in baseball

Amongst defensemen, he's trailing only BU's Cole Hutson and Ty Hanson of UMD.

As the one who brought up krach, I can say that no one realized what I was asking.

I was trying to ask Adam if he could recalculate the historic home advantage with a krach adjustment.   He had given us the actual numbers from past season(s) as a measure of the "true" home advantage in terms of wins.

I thought that the historic evaluation would be more meaningful if krach adjusted to show us how much home advantage there really is historically.

  Adam- would still like to see a krach adjusted home advantage (calculating the advantage each game depending on opponent)  and see how much it diverges from the simple star you gave.

I'm not suggesting we krachify the home road weights for noon this way.

BL, we all know you hate krach, but Adam is correct that if you want to compare teams based on records to date, there is no better model, and this one has no arbitrary weights in it.  Also, JTW would have to confirm this, but that model wasn't developed to pick tournament teams.   It was a mathematical model that they thought was the best way of quantifying relative team strength based on games played.   Some did as ocate for that to be used for selection, but pretty sure it wasn't developed for that reason.

And again to BL, I was not looking for a future projection.   I wanted a statistical evaluation of the historical expected performance.    Consider it like xG, only it's xHW.

From the chn article. Quoting his coach.

"He's always been a patient person, whether that was spending an extra year at Avon (Old Farms Academy) or an extra year of junior hockey with us now. So he understands the development process and he continues to round out his overall game."

That doesn't reveal whether he decided he needed another year or if we asked him to.   Wish I was the interviewer and had the chance to ask for elaboration.

Great for Walsh.  Great for the program as well to have someone represent at that level.

https://www.collegehockeyinc.com/2025/11/six-more-join-u-s-collegiate-selects-spengler-roster/

Quote from: CU2007 on November 02, 2025, 09:55:28 AM

Quote from: Chris '03 on November 02, 2025, 08:52:59 AM

Quote from: dbilmes on October 29, 2025, 04:22:07 PM

Quote from: stereax on October 28, 2025, 06:42:29 PMBand's here, btw. Nice touch.

From watching on ESPN, it sounds like the pep band gets to play as much as it wants during the women's game. It's too bad they play so much piped-in music during the men's games, cutting in to the amount of pep band time.

My third or fourth hand understanding is that athletics has decided to limit the band more and more at men's games. First killing pregame. Then adding jock jams. Now apparently controlling when they play entirely. Seems gone are the days that the band coordinates announcements with ACM and otherwise uses its own judgment to fill other breaks. A system which... Worked fine?

.

That's a damn shame and an awful decision. What benefit would that possibly bring?

People ought to let Nicki their feelings on this. She's not Andy -from everything I have read about her it seems like she would at least listen to the feedback.

Adam - I'm assuming you didn't catch one of my questions earlier.

Any chance of looking at home advantage and adjusting for quality of opponent by applying krach?  The ultimate question isn't home advantage. It's whether being at home makes you more likely than you should be to win vs a specific opponent.

I think this is the math for this, someone correct me if I am wrong:

for each game result, a team is likely to win at a percentage of  Ke =Kh/(Kh+Kr)

where Ke is the expected win percent, Kh is the home teams krach and Kr is the road teams krach.

You can calculate a season total for Krach expected home wins by adding up the Ke for all home games by played by a team.

Over or under expectation is the difference between the Ke and the actual win percentage from those home games. 

Admittedly I don't know how to handle ties  when krach adjusting in this model. Krach ratios tell you how often to expect a win, but I don't think I've ever seen a mention of how to use them to predict the tie percentage.  We know that if you are 80% win probability a tie is underperforming, but not as much as a loss, but using any point system for WLT is arbitrary. Is there a theoretical way to predict the tie ratio as well as the win ratio?

Quote from: adamw on November 02, 2025, 11:37:06 PM

Quote from: BearLover on November 02, 2025, 12:18:41 PMChoosing teams for the national tournament based on a formula that is designed to maximize things other than picking the most qualified teams is absolutely nuts! I'm wondering how off the 1.2/0.8 split is though. I could imagine it's close to the "true" advantage...

National home ice advantage last year was .5377 ... which is the lowest in at least 10 years. I think that's also skewed by all the "bigger" teams that still host "smaller" teams in most instances where two such teams meet. But that's somewhat speculative.

Adam, is that advantage based on straight win/loss?

It would be more useful to see a krach
adjusted advantage as that would remove the big school small school issue and also adjust for sos.

Quote from: BearLover on November 02, 2025, 10:58:40 PM

Quote from: scoop85 on November 02, 2025, 10:10:01 PM

Quote from: BearLover on November 02, 2025, 09:55:25 PMWell that really sullied a good weekend. WTF

Only if you let it. I'm confident we'll continue to recruit very well despite it all.

The recruiting is looking pretty sketchy at the moment. The Pelletier thing is especially annoying because it seems like an unforced error.

What's especially annoying is your tendency to assume things without having any evidence whatsoever as to why they happened, and then blame it on the coaching staff 90 percent of the time.

You and several others are assuming that the coaches actively decided to bring someone else in, and that Pelletier had to wait as a result.  While that's possible, it's just as possible that Pelletier had some reason to want to wait another year, or that both sides thought it made sense.

Or maybe Pelletier was already starting to waver a bit in his own mind, and as they kept in touch over the summer and doing whatever they do to decide who is actually coming in when, the coaching staff could sense that and deferred for another year to make sure the kid was back to rock solid.

Interestingly, whenever a guy leaves early, whether it's Robertson after 2 years or others after 3, you always blame the player and are like good riddance, traitor.

When there's some change with a recruit, you always blame the coaches.

When there is a down year on the lower play, you blame the coaches.

Actually, you almost never blame the players, it's always the coaches.   It's never possible that there really was a rash of injuries in a couple recent years, and then other guys playing hurt on top of that.   Or not believing that half the team has a GI big on a given day.    It's always the coach's fault to you.

#doomandgloomlover

Quote from: scoop85 on November 02, 2025, 11:21:53 AM

Quote from: Chris '03 on November 02, 2025, 08:39:54 AM

Quote from: VIEWfromK on November 02, 2025, 01:59:33 AM. I enjoyed that high end zone camera. 

I thought the whole broadcast was very good but this stood out to me too. I'd have loved to see more of it. Gives you a much better sense of spacing and movement than the typical angles.

A nice perspective, but I could've used a little bit less of it.

The one thing they messed up with this view is that they didn't zoom in close enough. If it was zoomed so that it showed roughly half the ice surface instead of the entirety, and moved up and down the rink with the action, that would have been better.

I've seen some European soccer matches on ESPN offer the regular game feed, the Spanish feed, and then a third feed that is called either the tactical or coaches view.  The tactical feed shows the high end of field view; the same as that high camera on the UMass broadcast.

I'd love the opportunity to have the alternate feed available for the whole game.  Or offered as a split screen where you can see the regular game view on the left ⅔ of the screen and the tactical view in the right ⅓.

There's no reason we couldn't mount a similar camera at lynah.

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Quote from: RichH on November 02, 2025, 11:04:53 AMI have the CHN app set to give me a "favorite team game alert" 1 hour before each game start. I'm spending a lot of time switching from Eastern Time to Mountain these days so this has been very useful. That was the best way to make me aware of the game time last night.

Tsk tsk, how has adamw not clicked the like button yet for this one?   

Quote from: Trotsky on November 01, 2025, 09:16:29 PM

Quote from: abmarks on November 01, 2025, 09:10:43 PM

Quote from: Trotsky on October 31, 2025, 08:50:24 PMWhat is the collective noun for puck bunnies?  A colony?  Centerfold?  Felony? There is a fine instance behind the UMass net.

I used to play in a men's hockey league with a guy who was a CC alum.  Seems his crowd at CC collectively referred to "puck muff".

Feels like that would work both as singular or plural.

Careful.  ugarte is taking names and there will come a reckoning once he convenes his tribunal. 

I merely report the phrase and it's grammarly place.

Quote from: Trotsky on October 31, 2025, 08:50:24 PMWhat is the collective noun for puck bunnies?  A colony?  Centerfold?  Felony? There is a fine instance behind the UMass net.

I used to play in a men's hockey league with a guy who was a CC alum.  Seems his crowd at CC collectively referred to "puck muff".

Feels like that would work both as singular or plural.

Bancroft was sent down to Providence (AHL) several days ago.

Nice article about Malott here:

Jeff Malott is stronger, playing with more of an edge and more than deserving of his first Opening Night roster - LA Kings Insider https://share.google/dweNx17V4RHPB1MjE

Quote from: CowbellGuy on September 30, 2025, 03:18:42 PM

Quote from: stereax on September 30, 2025, 01:29:30 PMYet another thought - could we put the old ELynah logo at the top, where it says ELynah Forum?

Yes, this template is just a placeholder until I can make one. Or modify this one or something, but I'm going to need some time for that.

Request that first template you make is a dark mode, so we have at least one option for that.