Hoops team the midway point

With just a D3 game to go before the Ivy season starts (and with the last basketball thread containing too much Harvard talk) I thought I would check back with Ken Pomeroy to see what his site says about the squad.

KenPom now says Cornell is the 186th best basketball team in the nation and sixth best in the Ivies. Cornell is now a slightly above average defensive team. In the last decade only the 2010 team was better rated on that end. Unfortunately, the offense is regressing and has its worst offensive ranking since 2006 when the team was also 4-9 heading into league play. Some other numbers/observations based in the order they drive me insane and should be fixable.

1) This team takes too many threes. I think we all know that, but the numbers are astounding. Only seven teams take more threes as a percentage of all shots, which would be high even for the Coach D years. Here's why that's a big problem: for the first time in years, this is not an elite three point shooting team. In fact, it is approximately 200th in the nation. And that number is bouyed by Drew shooting at a 43% clip. In the past, Cornell could get lucky with a hot shooting night and pull of an upset; the numbers say we cannot expect that to happen this year. In fact, Cornell has shot better than 40% from the behind the arc twice this season, the Binghamton win and the Illinois loss.* In comparison, the three Ivy Champs all shot over 40% from behind the arc for the season. Cornell needs to get the ball down low to Eitan and Josh, get Miller to stop relying on long-range jumpers, and get more dribble penetration from its guards. If the Big Red can do that, and they should be able to, that offensive rating should rise significantly. If they continue to pass the ball around the outside and chuck up a three, it won't.

2) The foul line does us no favors. Cornell is in the bottom quarter at getting to the line and slightly below average at hitting what foul shots they get. (Al, the numbers include Wroblewski's 86%. Take him out of the equation and the rest of the team would be ranked about #300. And, yes, there is no excuse for that.) The Big Red is even worse at sending the other team to the line where opponents continue to hit at a ridiculous 75%; only nine teams have a worse FT "defense." (Weird note, you would think FT defense is largely random, right? I would, at least. Cornell has been horrible in that category every year since 2003. That team finished 6-14. If anyone has an explanation, I would love to hear it.) Too many of our fouls are 30 feet away from the bucket, which should be avoidable. Our guards are doing a better job on trying to penetrate and draw fouls, so maybe this stat will even out a bit.

3) This team gives up too many offsensive rebounds. Offsensive rebounding remains dreadful (#335 of 345) and defensive rebounding has fallen off to decidedly below average. Unfortunately, this is unlikely to change this season. We play with a lot of three guard sets and our post players are poor rebounders. Rebounding average doesn't tell the whole story, but Josh is fourth on the team (behind two guards) and Eitan sixth. This could be a real impediment to pulling off an upset over Harvard or Yale (and perhaps Princeton and Columbia who are both good keeping teams off the offensive glass).

On the bright side, the defensive numbers are looking good. Top 100 in turning the other team over and top 30 in three point defense. That can keep a team in games (and has this season). The regular FG defense is below average, but that's largely a function of giving up too many shots off offensive rebounds. Bunce and Harmon have minutes waiting for them when they arrive in Ithaca next year.

I like to think this is a young team, but KenPom disagrees and says its about the same as Harvard as there are lots of minutes being given to Seniors (Chris and Drew are always on the court) and Juniors (Josh, Eitan, Miles and Johnathan). Personally, I would be maximizing the minutes of Cancer, Miller, Cherry and to a lesser extent Tarwater, LaMore and Giddens. This team isn't winning the league or playing in the post-season. I'd rather build for the future, even if it means finishing in the second division.

Again, sorry for the wordiness. There is a reason courts place limits on those of us who are lawyers.

* edited to fix a factual error, sorry about that.

yeah I dont understand why Courtney allows them to take these stupid 3's. He always says Ferry has a green light but you cant take those transition 3's on an off night against superior talent on the road which was the Maryland game. It gives the other team the ball right back and kills the momentum of a good defensive effort the previous possession

Dont know anything about Albright but they better win easily today, they could use a convincing win before conference play starts

Nice writeup.

The amazing thing to me is that in spite of our many obvious failings...we've only lost one game by more than ten points.

phillysportsfan
yeah I dont understand why Courtney allows them to take these stupid 3's. He always says Ferry has a green light but you cant take those transition 3's on an off night against superior talent on the road which was the Maryland game. It gives the other team the ball right back and kills the momentum of a good defensive effort the previous possession

As you and I have chatted about before, Philly, Ferry is just so frustrating. His good shooting nights can carry a team, but he doesn't contribute much when he isn't shooting well. Bottom line, I salute him for his hard work as a Cornellian, but won't lose too much sleep over his graduation. We need to complete the transition from the "bombs away" Coach D teams.

Excellent analysis, mountainred. I agree with giving more playing time to the guys who will be around two or three more years. Sure worked for Jeff Mathews.

Al DeFlorio
Excellent analysis, mountainred. I agree with giving more playing time to the guys who will be around two or three more years. Sure worked for Jeff Mathews.

That reminds me, does anyone know what's become of Jake Matthews? He's still listed on the roster, but hasn't played at all this season.

I know Matthews was hurt for awhile, may still be injured.

Ben

Al DeFlorio
Excellent analysis, mountainred. I agree with giving more playing time to the guys who will be around two or three more years. Sure worked for Jeff Mathews.

That reminds me, does anyone know what's become of Jake Matthews? He's still listed on the roster, but hasn't played at all this season.

Thanks Al. The Jeff Mathews analogy is spot on.

Ahh Jake Matthews. Maybe no player more empitomized my inability to understand what Coach C was doing last season than Jake. He started 11 games, only four guys started more ('ski, Peck, Miles and Adam Wire), but he only played 187 minutes all season. For the season, he had 30 points, 12 assists, and 18 rebounds. That's about two solid games worth of stats. I know he was supposed to be an "energy guy" or whatever, but I never understood starting Jake, subbing him out for Ferry at the first media timeout and keeping on the bench for the rest of the half. But we argued that to death last year.

I too think Jake has been hurt and at this point I hope the team is going to try to turn this into a red shirt year. There is a glut of guards and based on his performance last yeat I wouldn't have Jake any higher than 7th in the guard rotation, battling Dom and Max for a few minutes here and there. Taking a shot at a redshirt, asssuming Jake wants to, would make more sense for the team and Jake's chances of playing an important role in the future.

Miller alley oop:

Thanks Philly, that helps on a Monday.

One thing I noticed in the numbers that should be pointed out in fairness to this team. Ken Pomeroy's site goes back to 2004 with full sets of numbers. I don't know how well ratings translate from one year to the next, but I figure you can at least do relative comparisons. This team's overall rating and national rank would have them finishing second or third in every prior Ivy season except 2010 (fourth behind Cornell, Princeton and Harvard, but well ahead of everyone else). It is significantly higher than Cornell's ranking for '05 and '06 when the team finished 8-6 in the league and slightly better than the '07 team that finished 9-5. The goalposts (buckets?) on what is a successful Ivy League basketball team have moved. I understand we have to adjust with the times, but I thougth it was worth noting.