Bracket Projections

If anyone wants a summary of all of the bracket projections, I posted links on my blog. Consensus seems to be a No. 14 seed, but we are knocking on the door of a 13 seed.

We can probably get a 13 seed if we sweep the remaining 4 games (A VERY DIFFICULT TASK).

It will be hard for the committee to deny us a 13 seed if we close the season winning 16 straight games.

Granted we will have a cupcake schedule and an RPI in the high 60s/or 70s... but a 22-5 record is pretty deserving of at least a 13 seed.

Anyhow... bracket projections for those curious.

For those who hate visiting my blog... don't click the link below.

[cornellbasketball.blogspot.com]

Here's a good site too. It takes seed projections from 40+ other bracketology sites and comes up with its own predictions. And it gives links to each of those sites.

[bracketproject.atspace.com]

Looks like deadspin is looking for a capsule author (though I suggest waiting to volunteer until a tournament spot is a certainty, lest the woofing gods be angered): [deadspin.com]

CornellFan
We can probably get a 13 seed if we sweep the remaining 4 games (A VERY DIFFICULT TASK).

It's been an amazing season so far and anything is possible, but given that the basketball team hasn't won at Penn since 1989, and that it's within the realm of possibility that the games at Penn and Princeton will be meaningless (Senior weekend at home against teams that are 2-8 and 3-7 in conference, though Harvard gave the team fits a few weeks ago), I'm not holding my breath.

Josh '99
... but given that the basketball team hasn't won at Penn since 1989, and that it's within the realm of possibility that the games at Penn and Princeton will be meaningless ...

Cornell is (hypothetically) undefeated in conference, trying to maintain a good seed, playing at an arena that the team hasn't won at in almost 20 years and playing against a team that has been eliminated from post-season contention.

And you are worried that the game will be meaningless to us?

I would add that Penn's team has a HUGE ego. They will play against us like they are playing for the national title.

As for our guys... I think Ugarte has it right.

We have seeding on the line against Penn. Everytime Cornell loses in Ivy play...it increases our chances of getting a 16 seed. Our guys will play to avoid such a terrible seed.

Finally, none of the Cornell kids or Coach Donahue have ever won in Philly. That alone is motivation to win.

Frankly I don't care where we get seeded. I just want to face a mid-major like Saint Mary's, Gonzaga, Butler or Drake in the first round. (of course, assuming we win the League). I think we match up better with those teams than we do with the ultra-athletic SEC, Big 10 and Pac 10 teams of the world.

I have all the respect in the world for those mid-major teams... but Cornell can definitely beat those guys and right now... we have an excellent chance of drawing a team like a Drake or Butler if we are a 13 or 14 seed.

OK, you're both right. "Meaningless" was an overstatement. Still, I think there's at least the possibility of a letdown if (again, hypothetically and making no assumptions) Cornell wins both games at home this coming weekend and already has the outright title locked up.

Josh,

I don't think Cornell will play any of the four remaining games in a lethargic state. Our kids are pretty hungry and want to make some history.

If we lose a game, it will probably be because we just did not play well-- i.e. the shots did not fall or the other teams was just scorching hot.

Nothing would be more thrilling for our kids then to sweep Harvard and Dartmouth this weekend in front of a sold out Newman Arena and then demolish the "Killer Ps" on their home floors.

We've been tortured by those two schools for the last 20 years. We want some payback.

I know for a fact that our guys want to blow Penn out of the water in Philadelphia.

Don't think they want to sleepwalk through these games.

It is now a new 4 game season. The kids will take each one... just one step at a time.

CornellFan
It is now a new 4 game season.

Four game season? It's a ten game season!

(I've been making this joke for years wrt hockey, so why not here too?)

CornellFan
Frankly I don't care where we get seeded. I just want to face a mid-major like Saint Mary's, Gonzaga, Butler or Drake in the first round. (of course, assuming we win the League). I think we match up better with those teams than we do with the ultra-athletic SEC, Big 10 and Pac 10 teams of the world.

I have all the respect in the world for those mid-major teams... but Cornell can definitely beat those guys and right now... we have an excellent chance of drawing a team like a Drake or Butler if we are a 13 or 14 seed.

I don't doubt you're right -- we don't want to play a factory school where the 6th guy off the bench is more talented than our starting five -- but a mid-major will be ready and disciplined. Jock U. might well be overconfident.

I still don't believe we'll even win the Ivies. That attitude has served me well throughout the season, so I am going to continue to assume we are going to lose every game.

Trotsky
I still don't believe we'll even win the Ivies. That attitude has served me well throughout the season, so I am going to continue to assume we are going to lose every game.

Having watched Cornell basketball for 47 years, I highly recommend that attitude. I vividly--and, perhaps, somewhat bitterly--remember a season during my years on the Hill where we also won our first ten Ivy games. It quickly went to hell.

Climbs to No. 70.

[cornellbasketball.blogspot.com]

Please educate an idiot. Why haven't we clinched the Ivy title yet? I just started hearing about the basketball team's success this week (living in Ohio, not a basketball fan and 7 years removed from graduation, I'm not exactly up to date on CU hoops). According to ESPN we are 11-0 in conference, and Brown is 8-3. Why, then, do we need to win tonight or have Brown lose to clinch the Ivy title. Why haven't we clinched already?

JordanCS
Please educate an idiot. Why haven't we clinched the Ivy title yet? I just started hearing about the basketball team's success this week (living in Ohio, not a basketball fan and 7 years removed from graduation, I'm not exactly up to date on CU hoops). According to ESPN we are 11-0 in conference, and Brown is 8-3. Why, then, do we need to win tonight or have Brown lose to clinch the Ivy title. Why haven't we clinched already?

Because if we lose our last three games and Brown wins their last three we end the season with identical records. The Ivy League does not have tie breakers for league titles. Teams tied in the standings share titles even if one team has a better head to head record e.g. Cornell's two wins over Brown.

nyc94

JordanCS
Please educate an idiot. Why haven't we clinched the Ivy title yet? I just started hearing about the basketball team's success this week (living in Ohio, not a basketball fan and 7 years removed from graduation, I'm not exactly up to date on CU hoops). According to ESPN we are 11-0 in conference, and Brown is 8-3. Why, then, do we need to win tonight or have Brown lose to clinch the Ivy title. Why haven't we clinched already?

Because if we lose our last three games and Brown wins their last three we end the season with identical records. The Ivy League does not have tie breakers for league titles. Teams tied in the standings share titles even if one team has a better head to head record e.g. Cornell's two wins over Brown.

...and the Ivy League has a one-game playoff in the event of a first-place tie, so if we lose out and Brown wins out, Brown could beat us in that one game and go to the dance.

Ahh...sorry...was thinking tonight was the last game of the season for some reason. (See, told you I wasn't in to hoops...I'm much more concerned about clinching a bye in hockey.)

Thinking about seeding, the postseason tournaments aren't helping us much.

* Ohio: ended up in the middle of the MAC and lost in the quarters of the conference tourney

* Syracuse: near the bottom of the Big East, got destroyed in the first round by Villanova (who went and got destroyed by G'town in the QF)

* Bucknell: ended up near the bottom of the Patriot league, and lost in the semis.

On the other hand, Siena won the conference and regular season MAAC titles and Colgate is still alive for the championship of the Patriot. If Colgate gets in, Cornell will be 1-2 against other teams in the tournament.

Colgate is more or less guaranteed a 16 seed, and our losses to Bucknell, Ohio and Syracuse are all to schools that weren't good enough to get an at-large bid. Siena probably wouldn't be good enough either. I think a 13 is the best we can hope for and at this point might be a reach.

USA Today pegged us a 14th-seed against #3 Louisville in today's brackets, IIRC.

Based on gut feel and what the experts are predicting, I'd give us a 30% chance at a 13 seed, a 68% chance at a 14 seed and a 2% chance at a 15 seed.

Colgate down by two with the ball and 31 seconds left. Highlight reel finish TK.
Whoops. Misread the gamecast. American is up by 3 with 19 seconds left and Colgate had to foul again. This one is probably over.

American is up by 5 and Colgate missed the shot and didn't get the rebound. It doesn't take a genius to call this one.

American is a likely 15 or 16 seed. Our RPI suffers a bit but not a big deal.

To get a 13, we probobly need someone other than Utah St. and Nevada to win the WAC or Stephen F. Austin to lose in their tourney (maybe both).

jksnake06
American is a likely 15 or 16 seed. Our RPI suffers a bit but not a big deal.

To get a 13, we probobly need someone other than Utah St. and Nevada to win the WAC or Stephen F. Austin to lose in their tourney (maybe both).

Huh. As confusing as the hockey seeding process is, this is way more fucked up.

Basically, we want teams worse than us to win their conference tournaments. In the Southland Conference, the only team better than us is Stephen F. Austin. Thus, if someone else gets the autobid from that conference, we get bumped up a slot.

Another conference to watch is the Big West- we'd like UC Santa Barbara to lose.

We want teams worse than us getting autobids because they'll get lower seeds, basically? (Whereas to use your example, Stephen F. Austin is better than us, but not good enough to get an at-large bid?)

exactly. The only teams that are going to be seeded below us are going to be autobids... we'll be below even the worst at large teams.

So we want as many bad teams as possible getting in the field via the autobid.

ESPN and Joe Lunardi still had Cornell as a #13 seed, now playing a #4 Notre Dame (date line on that projection was 3/14 and I assume takes into account last night's results).

Stephen F. Austin lost- the Southland champ is now likely to be below us.

Utah St. and Nevada lost in the WAC, giving us a very good chance of being above the champ from that conference.

UC Santa Barbara, who may or may not have been ahead of us, lost in the Big West tournament... the remaining teams are all likely to be above CU.

Cornell was potentially bumped up 3 spots, and our chances of a 13 seed have gone up dramatically.

jksnake06
UC Santa Barbara, who may or may not have been ahead of us, lost in the Big West tournament... the remaining teams are all likely to be above CU.

You meant Irvine and Fullerton are likely behind CU, correct? I'm not positive this will be true, but it certainly might be. The WAC champ is going to be pretty close to us as well. The Southland champ is definitely going to be behind us - they have the 5 and 7 seeds playing for the title. If Northwestern State wins, they are probably in the PIG.

jksnake06
we'd like UC Santa Barbara to lose.

Speak for yourself, bucko! ::mad::

hi guys
if anyone wants to join a mens bbal bracket...

[elf.elynah.com]

ugarte
* Syracuse: near the bottom of the Big East, got destroyed in the first round by Villanova (who went and got destroyed by G'town in the QF)

It's not like Syracuse was a BE bottom-feeder. How would you like to have 19 wins, an RPI of 55, and have played the 10th toughest schedule in the country and not get in? Or how about having gone 10-3 against the 21st toughest non-conference schedule and not get in? Or how about having 6 wins against tournament teams, including wins over Villanova, Georgetown, and Marquette, and not get in? Tough break for an extrememly young Syracuse team -- the 9th best team in a league that sent 8 to the dance.

Wasn't Syracuse something like 1-8 vs. the Top 100 RPI?

Our team is going to win this tournament. It will be tough, but it's destiny.

Cornell will upset Stanford, beat Marquet, and manhandle Texas before dominating Memphis to reach the Final Four. Then we'll edge pass PAC-10 champion UCLA and to face North Carolina in the Final. We will outclass them by the scores of 86-73 to win the tournament.

Just remember, you heard it here first!

Oat
Our team is going to win this tournament. It will be tough, but it's destiny.

Cornell will upset Stanford, beat Marquet, and manhandle Texas before dominating Memphis to reach the Final Four. Then we'll edge pass PAC-10 champion UCLA and to face North Carolina in the Final. We will outclass them by the scores of 86-73 to win the tournament.

Just remember, you heard it here first!

This post is pure BS. It won't be this tough at all.

RichH

Oat
Our team is going to win this tournament. It will be tough, but it's destiny.

Cornell will upset Stanford, beat Marquet, and manhandle Texas before dominating Memphis to reach the Final Four. Then we'll edge pass PAC-10 champion UCLA and to face North Carolina in the Final. We will outclass them by the scores of 86-73 to win the tournament.

Just remember, you heard it here first!

This post is pure BS. It won't be this tough at all.

Hey, pal, don't woof. Our path to the Final Four is brutal.

Scersk '97

RichH

Oat
Our team is going to win this tournament. It will be tough, but it's destiny.

Cornell will upset Stanford, beat Marquet, and manhandle Texas before dominating Memphis to reach the Final Four. Then we'll edge pass PAC-10 champion UCLA and to face North Carolina in the Final. We will outclass them by the scores of 86-73 to win the tournament.

Just remember, you heard it here first!

This post is pure BS. It won't be this tough at all.

Hey, pal, don't woof. Our path to the Final Four is brutal.

Yeah, Rich. If we lose, IAYF.

Oat
Our team is going to win this tournament. It will be tough, but it's destiny.

Cornell will upset Stanford, beat Marquet, and manhandle Texas before dominating Memphis to reach the Final Four. Then we'll edge pass PAC-10 champion UCLA and to face North Carolina in the Final. We will outclass them by the scores of 86-73 to win the tournament.

Just remember, you heard it here first!

I want what he's smoking.