2006 Pairwise Comparisons Projections: the Final Stretch!

The previous thread is almost 200 posts long, and we're entering a new phase with only the conference tournaments to go, so I propose we discuss the "what if" scenarios here.

And at last we're at the stage where there are few enough games left to project the seedings with an interface less cumbersome than the DIY script at [slack.net] . Specifically, "You Are The Committee" which this year is found at [www.collegehockeynews.com]

With all the higher seeds winning and 33/22/11 bonuses, I got us tied for 5th with UND and losing either tiebreaker. #6 is okay though, since if we're in the same band as UND, we can't get sent to Grand Forks.

Good Idea

-------------------

Cornell in 2nd (GO UMD!):

* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Northern Michigan.
* CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Michigan.
* CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Colgate.
* ECAC Semifinal #1: Harvard defeats Dartmouth.
* ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Harvard.
* ECAC Consolation game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth.
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston College.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
* Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Maine.
* WCHA Play-in #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Minnesota.
* WCHA Championship game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.

Cornell at 13 :

* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Northern Michigan.
* CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Michigan.
* CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Cornell.
* ECAC Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard.
* ECAC Championship game: Dartmouth defeats Colgate.
* ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Cornell.
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston College.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
* Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Maine.
* WCHA Play-in #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.

Curious to see what other extremes people come up with

Used 33/22/11

Picking up discussion from another thread, here is an upset heavy set of games that has Cornell as the last team in at 11 with 5 AQs below them

* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Northern Michigan defeats Miami.
* CCHA Championship game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan.
* CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Miami.
* ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Cornell.
* ECAC Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard.
* ECAC Championship game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth.
* ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Cornell.
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Maine.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
* Hockey East Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Boston College.
* WCHA Play-in #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota.
* WCHA Championship game: St. Cloud State defeats North Dakota.
* WCHA Consolation game: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota.

This would likely set up a bracket in Albany (Wisconsin and Minnesoat are 1,2) that I think is favorable to CU:

MSU
Miami
CU
Colgate

Here's a bad one (Cornell tied for 12th with UNO, losing the comparison but winning RPI, with 3 AQs below us.):

* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Northern Michigan.
* CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Miami.
* CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Cornell.
* ECAC Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard.
* ECAC Championship game: Dartmouth defeats Colgate.
* ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Cornell.
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston College.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
* Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats Boston University.
* WCHA Play-in #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.

jtwcornell91
With all the higher seeds winning and 33/22/11 bonuses, I got us tied for 5th with UND and losing either tiebreaker. #6 is okay though, since if we're in the same band as UND, we can't get sent to Grand Forks.

I get us tied for 6th and losing the tiebreaker. Still can't get sent to Grand Forks, but Green Bay looks particularly realistic in that case. What are we doing different?

The clear message seems to be: at the very very least, win a game this weekend.

Jordan 04
The clear message seems to be: at the very very least, win a game this weekend.

Man, that's asking a lot.

This would get us a #4 overall seed (using .0033/.0022/.0011)


Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Mercyhurst.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan State defeats Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan State defeats Miami.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Colgate.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard.
ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Dartmouth.
ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Colgate.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston College.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats New Hampshire.
WCHA Play-in #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.

One of you more computer savvy people could probably set up some program to run every possibility. It has to be to a point where a program can do this in a few minutes and figure out what the lowest and highest ones are.

Jacob '06
One of you more computer savvy people could probably set up some program to run every possibility. It has to be to a point where a program can do this in a few minutes and figure out what the lowest and highest ones are.

Yeah that sounds like a good idea... (plea from the non computer savvy)

How about we figure out the possible results if we win both games this weekend?
Check to see what is out of our control, so we know who to root for.

19 games left, but the three consolations can end in ties, so that's 2^16 * 3^3 possibilities = 1.8 million combinations.

At 1 second each (just a guess), that's 491 hours of computing time. The only way to get it done before the actual events would be parallel pocessing on about 5 machines...

In other words, the brute force approach still isn't reasonable with today's computers. At least not until late Friday night.

Edit: Not to mention that a variable set of RPI bonuses makes the set of possibilities infinite.

Does USCHO's pairwise bracket use the 33/22/11 bonus? As I'm looking at it, it still has Miami as a 1 seed which is consistent with no bonus, but then they have BU ahead of us, which happens with the bonus but then Miami is a 2 seed behind us (6th overall). Am I missing something here or is their bracket just wrong? (in both cases Cornell stays put at #5 overall)

From USCHO:

Try this on for size. It gets Holy Cross to 10 and knocks Cornell, BC and Michigan out of the tournament.

CCHA: Michigan State over NMU and then the third place game is Miami over Michigan.

ECACHL: Dartmouth over Colgate and then the third place game is Harvard over Cornell

HEA: BU over Maine

WCHA: Minnesota-Duluth over Wisconsin and then the third place game is Minnesota over North Dakota

AH: Bentley over Holy Cross

Use the .003, .002, .001 bonus

holy cross to 10 without winning their tourney? that is impressive. of course with cornell out, this would not be an acceptable result

bothman
From USCHO:

Try this on for size. It gets Holy Cross to 10 and knocks Cornell, BC and Michigan out of the tournament.

I think USCHO would explode if Holy Cross got an at-large and Cornell, BC and Michigan were all on the outside looking in.

jmh30

bothman
From USCHO:

Try this on for size. It gets Holy Cross to 10 and knocks Cornell, BC and Michigan out of the tournament.

I think USCHO would explode if Holy Cross got an at-large and Cornell, BC and Michigan were all on the outside looking in.

While I kinda like the idea of USCHO exploding, I'm not willing to sacrifice Cornell's postseason chances to see it happen.

Of course, now I want to find a scenario where Holy Cross gets an at-large, and BC and Michigan miss the tourney, but Cornell still makes it in.

We can go as low as 14!

Running 33/22/11 on USCHO, Everything according to seedings, except CU loses 2 and MSU loses 2. Then you get CU #14, Dartmouth and Bemidji autobids below us, making us 16. (Edit, 14, not 16, per Delta below)

Not sure if there is a way to get bumped, but this is close...
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------



You have specified the following weights for quality win bonuses:

.0033 per quality road win
.0022 per quality neutral-ice win
.0011 per quality home win.

User-Specified Results
You have specified the following tournament results:

CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
ECACHL Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Cornell.
ECACHL Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard.
ECACHL Championship game: Dartmouth defeats Colgate.
ECACHL Consolation game: Harvard defeats Cornell.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston College.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Maine.
WCHA Play-in #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Mercyhurst.

abmarks
We can go as low as 16!

Running 33/22/11 on USCHO, Everything according to seedings, except CU loses 2 and MSU loses 2. Then you get CU #14, Dartmouth and Bemidji autobids below us, making us 16.

Well, no, we're 14, we just miss the tourney. So yeah, even being #5, its been proven that there are a few scenarios where we can miss out with two losses and an upset autobid or two.

Just sucks that Harvard is #7, and can't seem to even lose the two seed - and definitely not the tournament.

DeltaOne81

abmarks
We can go as low as 16!

Running 33/22/11 on USCHO, Everything according to seedings, except CU loses 2 and MSU loses 2. Then you get CU #14, Dartmouth and Bemidji autobids below us, making us 16.

Well, no, we're 14, we just miss the tourney. So yeah, even being #5, its been proven that there are a few scenarios where we can miss out with two losses and an upset autobid or two....

Correction to your correction...if we end up 14, with 2 auto-bids below us, it means we are the last team in.

abmarks

DeltaOne81

abmarks
We can go as low as 16!

Running 33/22/11 on USCHO, Everything according to seedings, except CU loses 2 and MSU loses 2. Then you get CU #14, Dartmouth and Bemidji autobids below us, making us 16.

Well, no, we're 14, we just miss the tourney. So yeah, even being #5, its been proven that there are a few scenarios where we can miss out with two losses and an upset autobid or two....

Correction to your correction...if we end up 14, with 2 auto-bids below us, it means we are the last team in.

To elaborate, Holy Cross would be the 12 seed. The two autobids below us would be Dartmouth and Bemidji.

DeltaOne81

Just sucks that Harvard is #7, and can't seem to even lose the two seed - and definitely not the tournament.

Here you go

Harvard ends up 15th and out of the tourney

* CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan State defeats Michigan.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Northern Michigan defeats Miami.
* CCHA Championship game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* CCHA Consolation game: Miami defeats Michigan.
* ECACHL Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Colgate.
* ECACHL Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard.
* ECACHL Championship game: Cornell defeats Dartmouth.
* ECACHL Consolation game: Colgate defeats Harvard.
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston College.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
* Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats New Hampshire.
* WCHA Play-in #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Minnesota.
* WCHA Championship game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.

OTOH, Charlie Shub does exhaustively search all results and post the histograms on Hockey-L once there are only a few games left.

Man, it's fun to read, but some people have too much time on their hands.

Since when do the WCHA and CCHA go back to having consolation games? I could have sworn that the ECAC was the only conference to have one in recent years.

KeithK
Since when do the WCHA and CCHA go back to having consolation games? I could have sworn that the ECAC was the only conference to have one in recent years.

According to INCH, the CCHA and WCHA have had consolation games for at least the past three seasons.

Robb
19 games left, but the three consolations can end in ties, so that's 2^16 * 3^3 possibilities = 1.8 million combinations.

At 1 second each (just a guess), that's 491 hours of computing time. The only way to get it done before the actual events would be parallel pocessing on about 5 machines...

I daresay you'll get a *lot* more than one per second. How about 100/sec at the least? Now we're at 4 hours or so. You may get even more throughput than that.

nyc94

KeithK
Since when do the WCHA and CCHA go back to having consolation games? I could have sworn that the ECAC was the only conference to have one in recent years.

According to INCH, the CCHA and WCHA have had consolation games for at least the past three seasons.

You're right accorsing to USCHO's archives. The WCHA has had a consy since at least 1999. The CCHA has only had one since 2003 and didn't have one from 1999-2002. That's as far back as the USCHO archives go (game by game schedules anyway).

I must've been confusing these leagues with HE, which has not had a consolation in at least eight years.

heykb

Robb
19 games left, but the three consolations can end in ties, so that's 2^16 * 3^3 possibilities = 1.8 million combinations.

At 1 second each (just a guess), that's 491 hours of computing time. The only way to get it done before the actual events would be parallel pocessing on about 5 machines...

I daresay you'll get a *lot* more than one per second. How about 100/sec at the least? Now we're at 4 hours or so. You may get even more throughput than that.

It's probably doable with an offline app, but throwing queries at a web script is going to slow things down. (And for heaven's sake, please don't actually try flinging automated queries at YATC. That would basically be a DOS attack.)

jtwcornell91

heykb

Robb
19 games left, but the three consolations can end in ties, so that's 2^16 * 3^3 possibilities = 1.8 million combinations.

At 1 second each (just a guess), that's 491 hours of computing time. The only way to get it done before the actual events would be parallel pocessing on about 5 machines...

I daresay you'll get a *lot* more than one per second. How about 100/sec at the least? Now we're at 4 hours or so. You may get even more throughput than that.

It's probably doable with an offline app, but throwing queries at a web script is going to slow things down. (And for heaven's sake, please don't actually try flinging automated queries at YATC. That would basically be a DOS attack.)

You wrote the YATC script right? Did you base it off an online app, or is it based on querying stat sites? If you did it offline and then just converted it in to a website I nominate you to write that program to figure out the best and worst scenarios

As long as we win out we have a very good chance, and even if we lose the final there's a chance, the key results seem to be:

* Miami cannot win out - this seems to be the killer assuming we lose 1. If we win out then my few iterations had us east in most, but not all, cases even if Miami won the WCHA.
* Losing to Dartmouth gives us more options than losing to Harvard
* BU winning out is better than any one else in HE

Anyone else interested in this particular outcome, and has the time, I'd love to see what you come up with, i.e., I'd love to know the key teams to root for and against this weekend.

Ken'70
As long as we win out we have a very good chance, and even if we lose the final there's a chance, the key results seem to be:

* Miami cannot win out - this seems to be the killer assuming we lose 1. If we win out then my few iterations had us east in most, but not all, cases even if Miami won the WCHA.
* Losing to Dartmouth gives us more options than losing to Harvard
* BU winning out is better than any one else in HE

Anyone else interested in this particular outcome, and has the time, I'd love to see what you come up with, i.e., I'd love to know the key teams to root for and against this weekend.

Wow Ken thanks. In all this weirdness I'm glad someone figured out a pattern.


But I gotta say:

if Miami won the WCHA.

*that* I'd like to see

I ran this scenario based on Adam's column on CHN, which notes that if Holy Cross and Bentley play for the AHA title, HC has more to gain by throwing the game.

How's this sound for a Green Bay Regional: #1 Wisconsin v. #4 Bemidji and #2 Cornell vs. #3 Holy Cross? It's not totally out of the question apparently. It's a better scenario than a lot that send the team west.


You have specified the following tournament results:

* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Bentley defeats Mercyhurst.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Bentley defeats Holy Cross.
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Northern Michigan.
* CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Michigan.
* CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Northern Michigan.
* ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Colgate.
* ECAC Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard.
* ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Dartmouth.
* ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Colgate.
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston College.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
* Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Maine.
* WCHA Play-in #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
* WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
* WCHA Consolation game: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota-Duluth.

To bring this thread to life, this puts Cornell as the 3rd overall seed now:

(there are a few scenarios that accomplish this, but I think it's impossible to bring Minnesota or Wisconsin down from 1 and 2)

33/22/11

CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Miami.
CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
ECACHL Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Colgate.
ECACHL Semifinal #1: Harvard defeats Dartmouth.
ECACHL Championship game: Cornell defeats Harvard.
ECACHL Consolation game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Maine.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats New Hampshire.
WCHA Play-in #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Championship game: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Mercyhurst.

Ack
To bring this thread to life, this puts Cornell as the 3rd overall seed now:

(there are a few scenarios that accomplish this, but I think it's impossible to bring Minnesota or Wisconsin down from 1 and 2)

Remarkably, none of the specified results would be huge upsets. The biggest upsets of the bunch are probably UNH over BU (which has already happened this year), and Northern over Michigan State (NMU has played well of late and in a consolation game who knows?).

I'm starting to think that it's in Cornell's interest to root for Minnesota, Wisconsin, and UMD in the WCHA. Minnesota and Wisco because no one is catching them anyway and UMD as a CoP. Is that a fair assessment?

I'm less sure about who to like in the CCHA. I guess we're past rooting for MSU if Cornell is fighting them for seeding in the 3-6 range. We'd like to see Cornell keep the Miami comparison (and they are in the 3-6 fight too). Do we have to root for Michigan (6 common opponent games vs. 2 for NMU)?

Of course all this is based on Cornell winning too. Rooting for a team like Michigan could hurt if Cornell loses this weekend and Michigan passes them.

TCHL8842

DeltaOne81

Just sucks that Harvard is #7, and can't seem to even lose the two seed - and definitely not the tournament.

Here you go

Harvard ends up 15th and out of the tourney

* CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan State defeats Michigan.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Northern Michigan defeats Miami.
* CCHA Championship game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* CCHA Consolation game: Miami defeats Michigan.
* ECACHL Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Colgate.
* ECACHL Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard.
* ECACHL Championship game: Cornell defeats Dartmouth.
* ECACHL Consolation game: Colgate defeats Harvard.
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston College.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
* Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats New Hampshire.
* WCHA Play-in #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Minnesota.
* WCHA Championship game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.

This is without any bonus. a 3/2/1 bonus bumps hahvahd up to 7th in this case.

Chris '03
How's this sound for a Green Bay Regional: #1 Wisconsin v. #4 Bemidji and #2 Cornell vs. #3 Holy Cross?

It sounds great, other than the traveling part, but can you imagine the hissy fit if they ever put the two mid-majors in the same regional?

Following up on Ken'70s post, if we win out, the only way I've found so far for us to go west is for Miami to win out AND for Wisconsin to lose two. We finish 6th, but Wisco drops to third behind Miami, and we get sent out to GB to join them. If Bucky wins one or Miami loses one, Wisconsin stays #2 and we stay east. All this contingent on Minnesota winning their semi. If Minny plays Wisconsin in the consy, even if Wisconsin loses, their RPI stays high enough to stay #2.

BTW, if we win out, I haven't found a scenario where we drop lower than 6th.

Reminder that there is game tonight at 8:35 ET
WCHA Play-In Game
Minnesota-Duluth vs. St. Cloud State

Go UMD! Right?

cth95
Go MDU! Right?

Who knows anymore. Since we played them you would think we should pull for them but I see above that we can get the overall three seed if they lose (among other things happening). Not sure how much really hinges on this game

Damn! I was hoping I could get that post edited before anyone saw my screw-up.

Regardless of PWR implications I'll be pulling for the UMD/Jan Brady winner this weekend.

St. Cloud 1-0, 44 seconds in.
edit: 2-0 now

ok
so i found a way to be a #1 seed
still playing around with it
eachl
cornell wins, colgate wins
ccha-state and nmu win
he-bc wins
aha-hc wins
wcha-scsu and minne win
gonna play some more

yeah so this is what I am cheering for, with the 3/2/1 bonus (33/22/11 bonus makes us lose the bu comparison by .0001!)

Quality-Win Bonus Factors

You have specified the following weights for quality win bonuses:
.003 per quality road win
.002 per quality neutral-ice win
.001 per quality home win.
User-Specified Results

You have specified the following tournament results:

* CCHA Championship game: Michigan State defeats Miami.
* CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan.
* ECACHL Championship game: Cornell defeats Harvard.
* ECACHL Consolation game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth.
* Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
* WCHA Championship game: St. Cloud State defeats North Dakota.
* WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Bentley.

I haven't found any way we get sent to ND b/c north dakota and us are pretty much set for being in the 2nd band. There are a few ways we get sent to Green Bay, but I didn't pay too much attention to what the patterns were.

Bottom line:

Win and we finish 4, 5, or 6 and stay east (jy3's slate is the only way we get a 1 seed).

Lose and we drop to 8 and go to Green Bay. Even worse, Sucks can finish as high as 2 by beating us. We can't let that happen.

Jeff Hopkins '82
Bottom line:

Win and we finish 4, 5, or 6 and stay east (jy3's slate is the only way we get a 1 seed).

Lose and we drop to 8 and go to Green Bay. Even worse, Sucks can finish as high as 2 by beating us. We can't let that happen.

If for no other reason than to avoid a year of EZAC comments after Sucks loses to Holy Cross.

schoaff
If for no other reason than to avoid a year of EZAC comments after Sucks loses to Holy Cross.

nice

Jeff Hopkins '82
Bottom line:

Win and we finish 4, 5, or 6 and stay east (jy3's slate is the only way we get a 1 seed).

Lose and we drop to 8 and go to Green Bay. Even worse, Sucks can finish as high as 2 by beating us. We can't let that happen.

I think this is right.

My earlier projections were assuming a Mercyhurst win, which affected Cornell negatively somehow. I think the Bentley win renders UND irrelevant for Cornell in terms of east/west.

Question: If MN is a 1 seed and Wisconsin drops to #3, would the committee send MN to Green Bay rather than North Dakota? According to Map Quest, the mileage (airport to airport) from Minneapolis to Grand Forks is 332 miles and Minny to Green Bay 281 miles. Not much, sort of like Ithaca-Worcester, Ithaca-Providence. But, I heard that most of the Green Bay regional is sold out (in anticipation of the Badgers being there), thus there is no "gate to protect"; the NC$$ has that money in hand.

If North Dakota is seeded 7 or higher, it would, potentially, allow the committee to have a 1-8 match-up in the second round if MN was not in Grand Forks.

Just wondering.

They don't have to protect the $$ gate, but they don't want the stands empty either.

I think the committee is going to consider Grand Forks to be 'closer' to Minn for all intents and purposes, so that they can send Wisc to Green Bay. This is nothing more than a hunch of my part, but they've proven before that they'd call mostly equivalent distances as equal, and a packed Green Bay house would certainly be to their advantage.

We found one way that we can stay east even if we lose.

We would be 7, Miami would be 8, UND and BU would also be 2 seeds. So BU in Worcester, UND in Grand Forks, and I would have to imagine that Miami would be sent west to face Wisc as the lowest remaining 2, and we'd get sent to Albany.

It seems most key that Miami doesn't win *and* that UND wins thereby taking the Miami comparison, so they fall to 8th behind us. BU may help too, but definitely doesn't seem critical.

Jeff Hopkins '82
Bottom line:

Win and we finish 4, 5, or 6 and stay east (jy3's slate is the only way we get a 1 seed).

Lose and we drop to 8 and go to Green Bay. Even worse, Sucks can finish as high as 2 by beating us. We can't let that happen.

Overall I would consider that good news. Unlike last year, we contrl our own destiny to stay east going into the championship game. It makes the stakes even higher than they would be otherwise. Go Red! Beat Hahvahd!

this gives an interesting result
4t Boston University (BU) 24 .5598
4t Cornell (Cr) 24 .5597
.0001! is the deciding factor.

Quality-Win Bonus Factors

You have specified the following weights for quality win bonuses:
.003 per quality road win
.002 per quality neutral-ice win
.001 per quality home win.
User-Specified Results

You have specified the following tournament results:

* CCHA Championship game: Michigan State defeats Miami.
* CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan.
* ECACHL Championship game: Cornell defeats Harvard.
* ECACHL Consolation game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth.
* Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
* WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Bentley.

this has us both with the same rpi, with bu winning it somehow

Quality-Win Bonus Factors

You have specified the following weights for quality win bonuses:
.003 per quality road win
.002 per quality neutral-ice win
.001 per quality home win.
User-Specified Results

You have specified the following tournament results:

* CCHA Championship game: Michigan State defeats Miami.
* CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan.
* ECACHL Championship game: Cornell defeats Harvard.
* ECACHL Consolation game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth.
* Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
* WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Bentley.

Originally developed for USCHO by John Whelan and revised for 2006.

jy3
Originally developed for USCHO by John Whelan and revised for 2006.

You know the original one is running already. [www.collegehockeynews.com]

jtwcornell91
You know the original one is running already. [www.collegehockeynews.com]

Yeah, use CHN! Another reason to visit CHN: they gave Age a media pass so he could take pictures for them!

atb9

jtwcornell91
You know the original one is running already. [www.collegehockeynews.com]

Yeah, use CHN! Another reason to visit CHN: they gave Age a media pass so he could take pictures for them!

Yeah, but that meant he couldn't wear his jersey.

jtwcornell91

jy3
Originally developed for USCHO by John Whelan and revised for 2006.

You know the original one is running already. [www.collegehockeynews.com]

yeah that was just copied from uscho

so the worst I could have us getting 2nite is 8th and the best 5th, assuming 'gate doesnt come back on dartmouth. SUCKS, on the other hand, can still get a #1 seed. anyone else get something different. off to the game
LGR!
i will try to post from my axim

Being a pessimist, I ran YATC with the consy results, a Cornell loss, and UND win and 33/22/11 bonus. Cornell stays in the 4-8 band, and so does North Dakota. I ran the script with the various permuations (but I may have missed a few) of the conference tourney results for Hockey East, AHA and CCHA.

Anyone know if Holy Cross is in for sure? It'd be nice to see given and make all the folks with the western bias upset.

Sitting in the Pepsi between games we tried every possibility and our interpretation of which regional we'd be in:

					REGIONAL
CU win			
	UND win		
		Miami win	
			BU win	
				HC win	Albany
				HC lose	Albany
			BU lose	
				HC win	Worcester
				HC lose	Albany (Worcester?) (#1 seed)
		Miami lose	
			BU win	
				HC win	Albany
				HC lose	crapshoot
			BU lose	
				HC win	Albany
				HC lose	Albany
	UND lose		
		Miami win	
			BU win	
				HC win	Albany
				HC lose	Albany
			BU lose	
				HC win	Albany
				HC lose	Albany
		Miami lose	
			BU win	
				HC win	Worcester
				HC lose	Worcester
			BU lose	
				HC win	Worcester
				HC lose	Worcester
CU lose			
	UND win		
		Miami win	
			BU win	
				HC win	Green Bay
				HC lose	Green Bay
			BU lose	
				HC win	Green Bay
				HC lose	Green Bay
		Miami lose	
			BU win	
				HC win	Worcester
				HC lose	Worcester
			BU lose	
				HC win	Albany
				HC lose	crapshoot
	UND lose		
		Miami win	
			BU win	
				HC win	Green Bay
				HC lose	Green Bay
			BU lose	
				HC win	Green Bay
				HC lose	Green Bay
		Miami lose	
			BU win	
				HC win	Green Bay
				HC lose	Green Bay
			BU lose	
				HC win	Green Bay
				HC lose	Green Bay



Green Bay	3/8  	38% 
Albany	11/32	34%
Worcester	7/32	22%	
crapshoot	3/32	9%

Those may be wrong. We just looked at some scenarios again and can't seem to reproduce it. Sorry

With results from the CCHA and AH games, it leaves this:

					REGIONAL
CU win			
	UND win		
			BU win	Albany
			BU lose	Albany
	UND lose		
			BU win	Worcester
			BU lose	Worcester
CU lose			
	UND win		
			BU win	Albany
			BU lose	Albany
	UND lose		
			BU win	Green Bay
			BU lose	Green Bay

So the BU/BC doesn't matter, but we really want UND to win if we lose.
(don't kill me if this is wrong)

Jacob '06
With results from the CCHA and AH games, it leaves this:

					REGIONAL
CU win			
	UND win		
			BU win	Albany
			BU lose	Albany
	UND lose		
			BU win	Worcester
			BU lose	Worcester
CU lose			
	UND win		
			BU win	Albany
			BU lose	Albany
	UND lose		
			BU win	Green Bay
			BU lose	Green Bay

So the BU/BC doesn't matter, but we really want UND to win if we lose.
(don't kill me if this is wrong)

I assume this is with 33/22/11? EDIT: With 33/22/11 a Cornell loss equals Green Bay regardless of results.

BU wins.

Without any bonus, a Cornell loss puts them at 4th in the PWR regardless of the WCHA result. In other words, in an entirely objective system, Cornell is a number one seed and Harvard is not.

33/22/11 or 3/2/1 Cornell loss is 8th in Green Bay playing Miami in the first round regardless of the WCHA result. Harvard is a 1 seed in either of these bonuses.

why do the TV guys sat it comes down to wooster or albany? what are they seeing different?

The higher the bonus goes, the higher Harvard goes.

Harvard is number one overall and Cornell stays east in their bracket as number 9 if the bonus is 6/4/2 or higher.

upperdeck
why do the TV guys sat it comes down to wooster or albany? what are they seeing different?

Are they talking about Cornell?

If so they might be forgetting to add in a bonus. Any reasonable bonus puts Cornell west. They also might not have updated the BU win yet.

I think they're ignoring the bonus.

UND is up 5-2 in the 3rd according to gameslacker

With 33/22/11 and UND winning-----

Green Bay:

Wisc
Cornell
Miami
Bemidji

Worcester:

Harvard
UND
Michigan
Holy Cross

Grand Forks:

Minny
BU
UNO
Maine

Albany:

CC
MSU
UNH
BC

The only problem is that BU needs to be in Worcester and UND needs to be in Grand Forks. Fortunately, they can easily flip. So:

Green Bay:

Wisc
Cornell
Miami
Bemidji

Worcester:

Harvard
BU
Michigan
Holy Cross

Grand Forks:

Minny
UND
UNO
Maine

Albany:

CC
MSU
UNH
BC

I think that's a very winnable bracket for CU and a nearly impossible one for Harvard.

UND wins it . Final score is 5-3.

CHN's script seems to have been making no sense... so ignore everything above...

Curenntly from USCHO with a 3/2/1 bonus:

1 Wisconsin (Wi) 28 .5782* Mn BU MS Ha Mm ND Cr Mi CC BC Me NH NO Da DU NM SC Ak FS HC SL OS Vt LS Cg Pv BS Mk
2 Minnesota (Mn) 27 .5772* BU MS Ha Mm ND Cr Mi CC BC Me NH NO Da DU NM SC Ak FS HC SL OS Vt LS Cg Pv BS Mk
3 Boston University (BU) 26 .5707 MS Ha Mm ND Cr Mi CC BC Me NH NO Da DU NM SC Ak FS HC SL OS Vt LS Cg Pv BS Mk
4 Michigan State (MS) 25 .5698 Ha Mm ND Cr Mi CC BC Me NH NO Da DU NM SC Ak FS HC SL OS Vt LS Cg Pv BS Mk
5 Harvard (Ha) 24 .5655 Mm ND Cr Mi CC BC Me NH NO Da DU NM SC Ak FS HC SL OS Vt LS Cg Pv BS Mk
6t Miami (Mm) 22 .5620 ND Mi CC BC Me NH NO Da DU NM SC Ak FS HC SL OS Vt LS Cg Pv BS Mk
6t North Dakota (ND) 22 .5596 Cr Mi CC BC Me NH NO Da DU NM SC Ak FS HC SL OS Vt LS Cg Pv BS Mk
6t Cornell (Cr) 22 .5516 Mm Mi CC BC Me NH NO Da DU NM SC Ak FS HC SL OS Vt LS Cg Pv BS Mk
9 Michigan (Mi) 20 .5478 CC BC Me NH NO Da DU NM SC Ak FS HC SL OS Vt LS Cg Pv BS Mk
10 Colorado College (CC) 19 .5453 BC Me NH NO Da DU NM SC Ak FS HC SL OS Vt LS Cg Pv BS Mk
11 Boston College (BC) 18 .5444 Me NH NO Da DU NM SC Ak FS HC SL OS Vt LS Cg Pv BS Mk
12t Maine (Me) 16 .5428 NH Da DU NM SC Ak FS HC SL OS Vt LS Cg Pv BS Mk
12t New Hampshire (NH) 16 .5403 NO Da DU NM SC Ak FS HC SL OS Vt LS Cg Pv BS Mk
12t Nebraska-Omaha (NO) 16 .5360 Me Da DU NM SC Ak FS HC SL OS Vt LS Cg Pv BS Mk
15t Dartmouth (Da) 12 .5373 DU NM Ak FS HC SL Vt LS Cg Pv BS Mk
15t Denver (DU) 12 .5274 NM SC Ak FS SL OS Vt LS Cg Pv BS Mk
15t Northern Michigan (NM) 12 .5233 SC Ak FS HC SL OS Vt LS Cg Pv BS Mk
18 St. Cloud State (SC) 11 .5263 Da Ak FS SL OS Vt LS Cg Pv BS Mk
19 Alaska-Fairbanks (Ak) 10 .5241 FS HC SL OS Vt LS Cg Pv BS Mk
20 Ferris State (FS) 9 .5235 HC SL OS Vt LS Cg Pv BS Mk
21t Holy Cross (HC) 7 .5330* DU SC SL OS Vt Cg BS
21t St. Lawrence (SL) 7 .5180* OS Vt LS Cg Pv BS Mk
23 Ohio State (OS) 6 .5111 Da Vt LS Pv BS Mk
24 Vermont (Vt) 5 .5075 LS Cg Pv BS Mk
25 Lake Superior (LS) 4 .5059 HC Cg BS Mk
26t Colgate (Cg) 3 .5171 OS Pv BS
26t Providence (Pv) 3 .5067 HC LS Mk
28t Bemidji State (BS) 2 .4945 Pv Mk
28t Minnesota State (Mk) 2 .5028

Tub(a)
With 33/22/11 and UND winning-----

Green Bay:

Wisc
Cornell
Miami
Bemidji

Worcester:

Harvard
UND
Michigan
Holy Cross

I think that's a very winnable bracket for CU and a nearly impossible one for Harvard.

Really? I mean, aren't we out-west, and facing Wisconsin near their home ice. And Miami has had there great year? (Albeit marred by a loss in their tournament).

I look in Harvard's bracket, and I really see is UND. Michigan is having a down year, and I don't know much about Holy Cross.

I don't follow outside the ECAC that much, so if I'm wrong, let me know.

Al DeFlorio
I think they're ignoring the bonus.

May the selection committee follow their infinite wisdom

This is what the bonus-free bracket would look like:

Green Bay:

Wisc
Miami
CC
Bemidji

Albany (I think it is closer to MSU than Grand Forks):

MSU
UND
Michigan
Holy Cross

Grand Forks:

Minnesota
Harvard
BC
SCSU

Worcester:

Cornell
BU
UNO
UNH (revenge!!)

Minny can't play SCSU and ND has to be in Grand Forks. They could switch UND with Harvard and SCSU with UNH, so it would probably look like:


Green Bay:

Wisc
Miami
CC
Bemidji

Albany (I think it is closer to MSU than Grand Forks):

MSU
Harvard
Michigan
Holy Cross

Grand Forks:

Minnesota
UND
BC
UNH

Worcester:

Cornell
BU
UNO
SCSU

Harvard lucks out into an East spot, but in a tough bracket. Once again, Cornell's bracket looks very reasonable.

Hmm.. one of CHN or USCHO is wrong, because they are giving VERY different results.

I put my money on CHN...

EDIT: I am using CHN's YATC

According to CHN we're headed to GB to play Michigan in the first round.

Dont forget these factors:

The remaining 12 teams are then "banded" into groups of four, corresponding to Seed Nos. 2-4. An attempt will first be made to keep teams closest to their home region, but there is an emphasis on avoiding first-round intra-conference matchups. Factors such as maximizing gate revenue, and limiting travel costs can also be taken into consideration. As a result, seeds can be flip-flop with same-numbered seeds of other regions.

If they follow these Cornell will stay east and albany makes most sense. Also Harvard could end up being a 1 seed in albany and Cornell being a 2. The seeding is not souly based on the pairwise. In the end the commity will make the decision.

I don't think they try to keep teams closest to their home brackets unless the teams are No. 1 seeds. Seeds 5-16 are sent to the necessary regional so that 1 plays 16, 2 plays 15, etc. This is the formula except when intraconference first round matchups get in the way.

The remaining 12 teams [/B] are then "banded" into groups of four, corresponding to Seed Nos. 2-4. An attempt will first be made to keep teams closest to their home region, but there is an emphasis on avoiding first-round intra-conference matchups. Factors such as maximizing gate revenue, and limiting travel costs can also be taken into consideration. As a result, seeds can be flip-flop with same-numbered seeds of other regions.

[www.uscho.com]

The remaining 12 seeds are the teams who are not a #1 seed.

bigred06
The remaining 12 teams [/B] are then "banded" into groups of four, corresponding to Seed Nos. 2-4. An attempt will first be made to keep teams closest to their home region, but there is an emphasis on avoiding first-round intra-conference matchups. Factors such as maximizing gate revenue, and limiting travel costs can also be taken into consideration. As a result, seeds can be flip-flop with same-numbered seeds of other regions.

[www.uscho.com]

The remaining 12 seeds are the teams who are not a #1 seed.

I don't know if you have followed this process before this year, but what redredux is trying to say is that they tend to ignore that directive once they are beyond the first band in order to preserve the 1-16/8-9 etc... set up.

Here's the next paragraph:

Though not in its stated list of guidelines, the committee has made a concerted effort in the two years the 16-team field has existed to maintain a strict bracket. In other words, teams are given overall seed numbers, 1-16. The brackets are arranged 1-6-8-9, 2-15-7-10, 3-14-6-11, 4-13-5-12. Adjustments are then made for factors such as avoiding intra-conference matchups, and host schools playing in their home region. But otherwise, the committee has attempted to adhere to this philosophy and a strict reading of the PWR list. Whether that continues in the future, is anyone's guess.

I hope you are right; I hope Cornell stays east. I wouldn't count on it.

Yeh i know. I'm just thinking optimistically.

this is what I get

1. wisconsin
2. minne
3. bu
4. mich state

5. hahvahd
6. miami
7. und
8. cornell

9. umich
10 cc
11 bc
12 maine

13 uhn
14. nebo
15. holy cross
16 bemidji

green bay
1. wisconsin (1)
2. cornell (8)
3. michigan (9)
4. bemidji (16)

grand forks
1. minne (2)
2. nodak (7)
3. cc (10) -> bc (11)
4 holy cross (15)

worchester
1 bu (3)
2 miami (6)
3 bc (11) -> cc(10)
4 nebo (14)

albany
1 michigan state (4)
2 havhahd (5)
3 maine (12)
4 uhn (13)

nodak and cc cant play so swap bc and cc

On USCHO, Jayson Moy just put up his bracket. (Adam's Wodon's from CHN in []). Adam's bracket has some bonus factor into it. I could not tell if Jayson's includes a bonus factor and the USCHO server went down(?), I cannot connect to it.

Jayson's bracket swaps Cornell and Miami and also puts BC in Worcester. That would certainly ensure a very good take at the gate. However, it does go against keeping 1-16, 2-15 etc bracket integrity. If the committee is concerned about attendance at Worcester, wouldn't be easier to swap Neb-Omaha (14) with either Maine or UNH (12, 13)? So what is more important to the committee this year, preserving bracket integrity or keeping as many teams close to home?

Well, we will know for sure in 11 hours.

Green Bay
1. Wisconsin [1. Wisconsin]
6. Miami [8. Cornell]
9. CC [9. Michigan]
16. BSU [16. BSU]

Albany
4. MSU [4. MSU]
5. Harvard [5. Harvard]
12. Maine [12. Maine]
13. UNH [13. UNH]

Grand Forks
2. Minnesota [2. Minnesota]
7. UND [7. UND]
10. Michigan [11. BC]
15. Holy Cross [15. Holy Cross]

Northeast
3. BU [3. BU]
8. Cornell [6. Miami]
11. BC [10. CC]
14. Neb-Omaha [14. Neb-Omaha]

Rita
Jayson's bracket swaps Cornell and Miami and also puts BC in Worcester. That would certainly ensure a very good take at the gate. However, it does go against keeping 1-16, 2-15 etc bracket integrity. If the committee is concerned about attendance at Worcester, wouldn't be easier to swap Neb-Omaha (14) with either Maine or UNH (12, 13)?

Yeah, fat chance. We're going to Green Bay. Unless the committee feels really bad about last year. So, fat chance.

DeltaOne81

Rita
Jayson's bracket swaps Cornell and Miami and also puts BC in Worcester. That would certainly ensure a very good take at the gate. However, it does go against keeping 1-16, 2-15 etc bracket integrity. If the committee is concerned about attendance at Worcester, wouldn't be easier to swap Neb-Omaha (14) with either Maine or UNH (12, 13)?

Yeah, fat chance. We're going to Green Bay. Unless the committee feels really bad about last year. So, fat chance.

I agree, but this swap would also make a lot of sense for Miami.

It could happen, but I'm not counting on it.

Well CHN is showing their youth, unless I'm missing something. At this hour and state of mind that's possible. They show GB bracket with Wis (1), us (8), UM (9), and Bemidji (16), but then in their projected bracket page we end up playing W and UM plays B. ???? In fact every regional looks screwed up, so maybe it's me. Off to bed, need to be up by 11.

Jim Hyla
Well CHN is showing their youth, unless I'm missing something. At this hour and state of mind that's possible. They show GB bracket with Wis (1), us (8), UM (9), and Bemidji (16), but then in their projected bracket page we end up playing W and UM plays B. ???? In fact every regional looks screwed up, so maybe it's me. Off to bed, need to be up by 11.

They just didnt transfer it to the bracket structure right. They have 1 playing 2 and 3 playing 4, looks like someone did a copy and paste instead of matching them up right.

At [slack.net] switch the result of the final By-HC game from a HC win to a HC loss and make Bentley the AH champion. Holy Cross's record vs TUC jumps from 1-2 to 5-3 and they win a bunch of comparisons vaulting them from #21 to #13 in the PWR.

According to Moy, who is in Albany, the reason that USCHO placed Cornell in Worcester is as follows (if I understood him correctly):
There is a 3-way tie between Miami, Cornell, and UND. Cornell beats Miami, Miami beats UND, and UND beats Cornell. But, because UND has to stay in Grand Forks, UND was taken out of the mix, so Cornell beats Miami. Therefore, Cornell stays in the east.

jtw, can you comment on this line of reasoning?

RedAR
According to Moy, who is in Albany, the reason that USCHO placed Cornell in Worcester is as follows (if I understood him correctly):
There is a 3-way tie between Miami, Cornell, and UND. Cornell beats Miami, Miami beats UND, and UND beats Cornell. But, because UND has to stay in Grand Forks, UND was taken out of the mix, so Cornell beats Miami. Therefore, Cornell stays in the east.

jtw, can you comment on this line of reasoning?

I just wanted to add that it made sense to me.

I think USCHO is just trying to win back Cornell fans after CHN's strong showing this weekend.

I cant figure out how CC ends up ahead of Michigan yet, either......

RedAR....I believe that IS what Moy said this evening.
whew 4am and I am home......

btw, to those I told this evening that Harvard moved ahead of BU in the PWR for a 1 seed, I apologize. I apparently received misinformation.

RedAR
According to Moy, who is in Albany, the reason that USCHO placed Cornell in Worcester is as follows (if I understood him correctly):
There is a 3-way tie between Miami, Cornell, and UND. Cornell beats Miami, Miami beats UND, and UND beats Cornell. But, because UND has to stay in Grand Forks, UND was taken out of the mix, so Cornell beats Miami. Therefore, Cornell stays in the east.

jtw, can you comment on this line of reasoning?

This is sensible, and it's the way Joe Marsh's committees used to do things. But it seems since the start of the 16-team tournament that they really don't look at the individual comparisons any more, and just read a 1-16 ranking off of the pairwise table. The Harvard-SCSU-OSU business from 2003 is an example of this.

Of course, maybe the rotations on and off the committee have changed seeding practices again.

Perhaps Jayson isn't so much trying to predict what the committee will do, but he's getting out ahead of them and making a suggestion as to what they should do, and providing the justification for them.