ECAC Playoff Predictions!

Now that the tournament's set, let's see some predictions for who's going to be at Albany.

Week 1:
(12)Yale @ (5)Dartmouth - (5)Dartmouth
(11)RPI@(6)Brown - (11)RPI
(10)Princeton@(7)St. Lawrence - (7) St. Lawrence
(9)Clarkson @ (8) Union - (9)Clarkson

Week 2:
(11)RPI@(1)Cornell - (1)Cornell
(9)Clarkson@(2)Harvard - (2)Harvard
(7)St. Lawrence@(3)Colgate - (3)Colgate
(5)Dartmouth@(4)Vermont - (5)Dartmouth

Albany:
Cornell vs. Dartmouth & Colgate vs. Harvard

I actually think Vermont would beat Colgate in a series right now for a spot at the tournament but obviously they won't be playing each other...

Note to the woofing gods: when it comes to Cornell, I predict with my heart. I divided it up by rounds:

12. Yale at 5. Dartmouth - 5. Dartmouth in two games
11. RPI at 6. Brown - 11. RPI in three games
10. Princeton at 7. SLU - 7. SLU in two games
9. Clarkson at 8. Union - 9. Clarkson in three games

11. RPI at 1. Cornell - 1. Cornell in two games
9. Clarkson at 2. Harvard - 2. Harvard in two games
7. St. Lawrence at 3. Colgate - 7. St. Lawrence in three games
5. Dartmouth at 4. Vermont - 4. Vermont in three games

7. St. Lawrence vs. 1. Cornell - 1. Cornell by one goal
4. Vermont vs. 2. Harvard - 2. Harvard by one goal in overtime

7. St. Lawrence vs. 4. Vermont - 4. Vermont by two goals
2. Harvard vs. 1. Cornell - 1. Cornell by one goal in overtime (Could it end any other way? )

Basically, I'm sticking with my preseason assertion that Colgate isn't for real this year. They were for the first half of the season or so, but in the past few weeks, they haven't been the same for some reason. I don't think a week off is going to help, either. RPI and Clarkson pull off upsets in the first round because Brown has been looking worse in recent weeks and Union has trouble winning postseason games. Vermont/Dartmouth is a tossup as far as I'm concerned. And as for a Cornell vs. Harvard overtime final, well, it works better for storybook purposes in my mind.

Dartmouth over Yale in 2
Brown over RPI in 3
SLU over Princeton in 3
Clarkson over Union in 3

Cornell over Clarkson in 2 blowouts
Harvard over SLU in 3
Brown over Colgate in 3
Dartmouth over Vermont in 2

Cornell over Brown
Harvard over Dartmouth

Cornell over Harvard
Dartmouth over Brown

Cornell, Harvard, Dartmouth all go to the NCAA Tournament.

Dartmouth over Yale in 2 (I hope, for Dartmouth's PWR sake)
Brown over RPI in 2 (I hope, for Brown's TUC sake)
SLU over Princeton in 2 (I hope, for SLU's TUC sake)
Union over Clarkson in 3

Cornell over Union in 2
Harvard over SLU in 2
Colgate over Brown in 3
Dartmouth over UVM in 3

Cornell over Dartmouth, close
Harvard over Colgate, lets say, 4-2

Dartmouth over Colgate, 3-1
Cornell over Harvard, in OT

Cornell, Harvard, Dartmouth go to the NCAAs

Obviously this isn't going to happen, but I think chalk all the way through. Maybe Dartmouth over Vermont in the QF.

[Q]calgARI '07 Wrote:


Cornell over Brown
Harvard over Dartmouth

Cornell over Harvard
Dartmouth over Brown

[/q]


2003 all over again.

I really have no complaints about how those ECAC playoffs worked out

Week 1:
(12) Yale @ (5) Dartmouth - (5) Dartmouth, 2-0
(11) RPI @ (6) Brown - (6) Brown, 2-0
(10) Princeton @ (7) St. Lawrence - (7) St. Lawrence, 2-1
(9) Clarkson @ (8) Union - (9) Clarkson, 2-1

Week 2:
(9) Clarkson @ (1) Cornell - (1) Cornell, 2-0
(7) St. Lawrence @ (2) Harvard - (2) Harvard, 2-1
(6) Brown @ (3) Colgate - (3) Colgate, 2-1
(5) Dartmouth @ (4) Vermont - (4) Vermont, 2-1

Semfinals:
(4) Vermont vs (1) Cornell - (1) Cornell
(3) Colgate vs (2) Harvard - (3) Colgate

Consolation:
(4) Vermont vs (2) Harvard - (2) Harvard

Final:
(3) Colgate vs (1) Cornell - (1) Cornell

What's the scenario that would give Cornell the clearest, fewest-land-mines path to the ECAC title game? We don't want to lose the title game, but we're going to have a hard time looking good in the NCAA seedings if we're not in the late game in Albany on Saturday.

10 Princeton or 12 Yale have had a couple good games of late (for Yale, good game means one-goal loss and OT loss) and could surprise. If they could win their first round series (which allows for one loss), they would be sitting ducks for Cornell in Ithaca. Yale with Tim Taylor coaching does better against us than Princeton, but Yale won't get that far. And Princeton's #44 (Ian McNally) is a hoot to watch - throws a lot of elbows and body checks without doing a lot of damage. And this year we seem to have #11 RPI's number. It seems one of those three could upset and we get to play the lowest-ranked. OTOH if each has a one-third chance of pulling an upset, that doesn't add up to a 100% chance that we'll see one of them in Ithaca.

If #9 Clarkson modestly upsets #8 Union, Cornell has emotional incentive to undo the bad things Clarkson did to Cornell last March. Ari's right, that could be a blowout. The only danger is that Clarkson is a high-penalties team (good for working on our PP average) but bad because as they go down in flames in game two they might try to take out with them some Cornell hothead who doesn't let the initial punch go unanswered. Also, could Clarkson be a more wearing team than say Union? Schafer (?) said the team really seems banged up (it is hockey) and could use the extra week off with the first round bye.

Brown would be fine to meet in the Albany semifinals. If the seedings run almost true to form except #5 Dartmouth beats #4 Vermont, Dartmouth would be a tough opponent. I'd just as soon have Vermont head off to Hockey East as a less-than-successful ECACHL team in its final year.

It would be nice for Ivy pride to have three (four?) of the four Albany teams be Ivy teams. #5 Dartmouth could take out #4 Vermont, but can #6 Brown handle #3 Colgate if that's how the re-seeding goes? And Colgate's almost an Ivy school.

We're also so gung-ho on doing bad things to the Cantabs in the finals (done by us) that we ignore the possibility Harvard might get upset at home or in the semis.

FIRST ROUND
9 Clarkson
8 @Union --> Clarkson (3 games)
[nobody has much faith in Union this year in playoffs]

10 Princeton 
7 @St. Lawrence ---> Princeton (3 games)

11 Rensselaer 
6 @Brown ---> Brown (3 games)

12 Yale 
5 @Dartmouth --->Dartmouth 

SECOND ROUND
10 Princeton
1 @Cornell ---> Cornell  

9 Clarkson
2 @Harvard ---> Harvard (3 games) 

6 Brown
3 @Colgate ---> Colgate

5 Dartmouth
4 @Vermont ---> Dartmouth (3 games)

ECAC SEMIS
Cornell over Dartmouth in overtime
Colgate over Harvard

ECAC FINAL & CONSOLATION
Cornell over Colgate 3-0 (utter dominance, Moulson 2 PPG, 1A, 93rd-95th career point)
Harvard over Dartmouth

I don't think anyone is ignopring the possibility of Harvard being upset, but in my eyes, theres only 4 other teams in the ECAC that have a chance at beating them in a series (Cornell, Colgate, Vermont, Dartmouth) and with the way the brakcet works out they'll probably draw Colgate, who has been bad recently.

As a practical matter, I can see the the possibility of one team (but not two teams) ranked below #4 making it to Albany and that team gets to play Cornell, whereas the #2 and #3 teams sandwiched in the middle will probably also continue on to Albany.

As you probably know, no film critic worth his goatee ever picks the same top ten films as any other critic, otherwise it looks like he's not being out there enough. So for my upsets, I went with Princeton first round and Colgate over Harvard in the semis. I think Colgate is due for a rebound. It's probably not going to happen, but by then, we'll be on to another thread and this WAG is long forgotten.

I would like a Cornell-Harvard title game, and I've already made plans to red-eye back from the West Coast in case that happens (my kid can find a way to get a ride to his own ice hockey game Saturday afternoon), but I would feel better about a Cornell - Harvard final if I knew the outcome in advance.

Has anyone thought of Summers-related cheers and signs for the game? Probably better for a sign than a cheer:

'Harvard men - less inate aptitude for hockey' - signed, Larry S.

in case anyone is interested
[board.uscho.com]

no woofing intended, i respect all teams in the playoffs.

Week 1:
(12) Yale @ (5) Dartmouth - (5) Dartmouth, 2-0
(11) RPI @ (6) Brown - (6) Brown, 2-0
(10) Princeton @ (7) SLU(T) - (7) SLU(T), 2-0
(9) Clarkson @ (8) Union - (8) onion, 2-1
t
Week 2:
(8) Onion @ (1) Cornell - (1) Cornell, 2-0
(7) St. Lawrence @ (2) Harvard - (2) Harvard, 2-0
(6) Brown @ (3) Colgate - (3) Colgate, 2-0
(5) Dartmouth @ (4) Vermont - (5) DC, 2-1

Semfinals:
(4) DC vs (1) Cornell - (1) Cornell 3-1 (EN)
(3) Colgate vs (2) Harvard - (2) Hahvahd 3-2 (OT)

Consolation:
(4) DC vs (3) 'gate - (4) DC 3-1 (EN)

Final:
(2) Hahvahd vs (1) Cornell - (1) Cornell 1-0 (OT)
cornell, hahvahd, dc makes the NCAAs I hope 'gate gets left out
brown and slu(T) will still be TUCs

OK, fine.

Week 1:
(12)Yale @ (5)Dartmouth - Dartmouth 2-0
(11)RPI @ (6)Brown - Brown 2-0
(10)Princeton @ (7)St. Lawrence - SLU 2-0
(9)Clarkson @ (8) Union - Clarkson 2-1

Comments: Yale and RPI are wretched this year. I really wanted to pick Princeton for an upset this season, but I think SLU is a dangerous team right now. They're hitting their stride. Union advance in the playoffs?? Why would they start now? Plus they are 2-13-1 in league play since December 1st. That was one heckuva November.

Week 2:
(9)Clarkson @ (1)Cornell - Cornell 2-0
(7)SLU @ (2)Harvard - Harvard 2-1
(6)Brown @ (3)Colgate - Brown 2-1
(5)Dartmouth @ (4)Vermont - Dartmouth 2-0

Comments: I feel a lot more confident about Cornell than I did last year. Colgate has that "playing scared" feeling. Playing a hot team like SLU will give Harvard that chance to focus and motivate themselves. UVM-Dartmouth is a complete toss-up to me. I could've put down UVM 2-0 and been satisfied with that prediction, given Gutterson. I went with experience and Yacey. If it happens, it'll be one fun series to watch.

Albany:
Brown vs. Cornell
Dartmouth vs. Harvard

I'm not touching this one yet.