SLU to stay a TUC? (even counting post season?)

SLU lost to Harvard today, and they're RPI actually still increased 0.0010.

Harvard's RPI Strength (the measure of how much playing you effects your opponent's RPI) is 11th in the nation at .6264 . SLU has us and Colgate remaining and we have the top RPIStr in the nation at .6972 and Colgate's is #9 at .6353.

This is all before tonight, but considering RPIStr is 2/3rds win %, and both Colgate and us won tonight, our RPIStr's should stay fairly high and likely increase. Seems to me that even if SLU does (and hopefully will) lose out the rest of the reason, just by finishing the season with Harvard, us, and Colgate, their RPI should increase at least another .0020 or more.

That would leave them around 0.5040 + 1 road quality win (likely to be worth about 0.0030). So I'm not sure what 2 playoff loses would do for them, but it seems they'll stay a TUC for now. Then again, they seem to be on the track for home ice, so if they could win a couple there, and then lose a couple to one of the top 4 teams, they'd probably stay above RPI = 0.5000


Additionally, seems like our worst enemy at the moment may be Miami being a TUC. They single handedly (mostly?) knock us down for from 3 to 6, when I add bonus point.


And just for fun, at the end of the night, w/ 3/2/1 bonuses, I come up with the following brackets (a number of first round conference matched switches were needed, so yours may vary):

Minn:
(4) UMinn
(5) Mich
(12) Harvard
(15) CHA?

GR:
(1) Denver
(8) UML
(11) OSU
(16) AHA?

Amherst:
(2) CC
(6) Cornell
(9) UNH
(14) Colgate

Worcester:
(3) BC
(7) BU
(10) Wisc
(13) UND

And we still have to go through UHN. Merde. A win would be sweet, sweet revenge. A loss would be a curse. I know that if we want to be good enough to get to the FF again, we have to be good enough to beat UHN. Still, as I said in another post, I'm paranoid and superstitious.

3-2-1
1. denver
2. cc
3. bc
4. minne
5. umich
6. cornell
7. bu
8. uml
9. uhn
10. wi
11. tosu
12. hahvahd
13. und
14. 'gate

15. dc
16 .nmu

minne over umich and cornell, umich over cornell breaks the tie at 4.
#9 is more complicated
uhn over tosu
wi over uhn
tosu over wi
so then i assume we list them by rpi as i have above
#1's: denver, cc, bc, minne
#2's: umich, cornell, bu, uml
#3's: uhn, wi, tosu, hahvahd
#4's: und, 'gate, aha/ch, cha/aha

grand rapids
1. denver (1)
2. uml (8)
3. wi (10)
4. cha/aha (sacred heart)(16)

minnesota
1. minne (4)*
2. umich (5)
3. hahvhad (12)
4. 'gate (14)^

amherst
1. bc (3)
2. cornell (6)
3. uhn (9)
4. und (13)^

worcester
1. cc (2)
2. bu(7)*
3. tosu (11)
4. aha/cha (bemidji state)(15)

i figured worcester and amherst are so close that the distance doesnt matter. so putting cc in worcester ensures a 2-7 matchup. anyone have any different fields? ^editverlooked the minne-und matchup so we likely have to swap 13 and 14

OR
if u take that amherst is closer to cc than worcester it makes things messy
#1's: denver, cc, bc, minne
#2's: umich, cornell, bu, uml
#3's: uhn, wi, tosu, hahvahd
#4's: und, 'gate, aha/ch, cha/aha

grand rapids
1. denver (1)
2. uml (8)
3. wi (10)
4. cha/aha (sacred heart)(16)

minnesota
1. minne (4)
2. umich (5)
3. hahvhad (12)
4. und (13)

amherst
1. cc (2)
2. cornell (6)
3. tosu (11)
4. aha/cha (bemidji state)(15)

worcester
1. bc (3)
2. bu(7)
3. uhn (9)
4. 'gate (14)
-if u take the distance into account but now u have to switch uhn with someone. cant swap with wi so either tosu or hahvahd...i would say tosu. ^also, minne and und can't play first round games...so swap und and colgate
->
grand rapids
1. denver (1)
2. uml (8)
3. wi (10)
4. cha/aha (sacred heart)(16)

minnesota
1. minne (4)*
2. umich (5)
3. hahvhad (12)
4. 'gate (14)^

amherst
1. cc (2)
2. cornell (6)
3. uhn (9)^
4. aha/cha (bemidji state)(15)

worchester
1. bc (3)
2. bu(7)*
3. tosu (11)^
4. und (13)^

In both cases you have a Minn/UND matchup in the first round. #4 Minn doesn't deserve #16, so switch UND with Gate.

There was more than 1 switch needed

No comments on my SLU stuff, huh?

yeah i agree with you. it is going to be interesting down the road. if cornell can beat them next week and 'gate can do the same -> maybe they can win their first round of playoffs and then lose in the second round to stay a TUC.
miami i thought of too as potentially being important, mentioned that on uscho too. it is quite interesting how the whole tuc one minute not a tuc the next minute can change things.

DeltaOne81:

I think SLUt need to win in the first round to stay a TUC. If they improved with their loss to Sucks, even losing to us and 'Gate should do the same. If they beat Princeton or RPI in round 1, their RPI can't drop, and then they'll play us, 'Gate or Sucks again, which should help their RPI again. They also have a quality road win which helps their RPI.

However, if they lose in the first round, those games WILL count against their RPI (the new rule only applies to playoff WINS hurting RPI), so they could drop out again.

Just ran it through JTW's tool. With losing to us and Colgate, 3 loses would do enough on their win % that they're RPI would drop 0.0004 remaining a TUC.

Two wins over RPI and then two loses to Colgate would keep them a TUC by a good 0.0039. And none of this counts the bonus points they have coming. However, throwing in every 1 loss to RPI puts them at .4991, means bonus points would make the difference.

I thought during conference play when you beat a weak team, your RPI could only stay the same not go down like the regular season. I still think SLU will have to get to the second round to stay a TUC even though a win over Gate this weekend will help there RPI a lot.

TCHL, when you beat, yes. But not if they lost 1 or 2 games in the first round.